QuantumScape (QS): 固体電池レースをリードする

固体電池が次の大きな飛躍となる理由

With the electrification of all forms of transportation, starting with cars, and soon also encompassing trucks, ships, and possibly even planes, battery storage has become the 鍵 technology of the decade.

これは特に、エネルギー密度が高く求められる輸送分野で当てはまりますが、風力や太陽光といった再生可能エネルギーの間欠性をバランスさせる上でも重要になる可能性があります。

業界はこれまで、コスト、エネルギー密度、資源の入手しやすさの点で最適な妥協点とされてきたリチウムイオン技術に支配されてきました。

However, lithium-ion technology presents a few key issues that might limit its adoption:

• 金属デンドライトが形成されやすく、致命的な故障やバッテリーヒートによる火災を引き起こす可能性があります。
• 低温下での性能が悪く、寒冷地や低温環境での固定保管には不向きです。
• エネルギー密度は高いものの、長距離走行やトラック・バスといった重負荷用途にはまだ理想的とは言えません。
• 多くのバッテリーは他のEV部品よりも早く電力が低下・劣化し、購入者は再販価値や高価な新バッテリーパックへの交換リスクに不安を抱きます。

For all these reasons, scientists and battery manufacturers have been trying to create a better battery design.

さらに重要なのは、リチウムイオンは現在では非常に成熟した設計であり、2020年以降エネルギー密度の向上がほとんど見られなくなっている点です。

出典: QuantumScape

固体電池と呼ばれる重要な概念は、アノードとカソードの間にある液体電解質を固体電解質に置き換えることです。これにより、液体電解質とその容器が加える重量が減り、バッテリーがよりコンパクトになる可能性があるだけでなく、従来の液体電解質がリチウム電池の火災リスクの主因であるため、安全性も向上します。

理論上は簡単ですが、固体電池プロトタイプの実装ははるかに複雑です。以前、アノードを全く使用しない設計や、AIを活用した設計など、いくつかの実験的デザインを取り上げました。

しかし、これらの実験的設計を安定した品質で合理的なコストで大量生産段階に持ち込むことは、別の大きな課題です。

西側のある企業が、ついに固体電池の大量生産ラインに到達しつつあるようです: QuantumScape。

QuantumScape の概要

Since its foundation in 2010, Californian QuantumScape has been a prominent startup in the solid-state battery space, remarkable by its move into the field early, and its independence from larger battery manufacturers also pursuing solid-state technology, like CATL (300750.SZ), Samsung, or LG Energy Solution (373220.KS).

Since then, the company formed in 2018 a joint venture with Volkswagen’s battery department PowerCo.

This started the slow process of developing a mass manufacturing method and extensive testing to check the design performance in a real EV.

出典: QuantumScape

In 2025年9月, the company finally showcased its battery in a real commercial vehicle, a fully electric Ducati V21L race motorcycle.

QuantumScape の固体電池技術で駆動する改造電動 Ducati モーターサイクルは、VW グループ傘下の Audi の専門家が QS 固体電池セル向けに特別設計した、史上初のバッテリーシステムを搭載し、レーストラックでの技術的可能性を示しています。

Ducati is part of the Volkswagen group, together with brands like Audi, Bentley, CUPRA, Lamborghini, Porsche, SEAT, and Škoda (you can read more about Volkswagen and its EV strategy to turn around the situation of the German automaker in our dedicated report on the group).

The focus on an electric motorbike is justified by the possibility it offers for a “low-volume but high-visibility demonstration”. As track motorcycles require both extremely high power capability and high energy density, they also demonstrate the technical capacity of the battery pack.

フォルクスワーゲン・パートナーシップ

As an independent startup, instead of a giant automaker or well-established battery makers like its Chinese, Japanese, or Korean counterparts, QuantumScape’s risk has always been higher for investors.

The technology might be great, but the expertise and financial capacity to bring it to mass production were always an interrogation mark.

This is changing thanks to the repeating funding rounds and agreements signed with Volkswagen, the second-largest automotive manufacturing group in the world, which is so important to QuantumScape’s shareholders.

出典: QuantumScape

The German automotive company will integrate the solid-state batteries in its Scalable System Platform (SSP), designed to form a common EV platform for all the models of all the brands of the company.

Under the 2024 agreement, PowerCo can manufacture up to 40 gigawatt-hours per year of electric vehicle batteries, with the option to expand to 80 GWh a year.

The relation with PowerCo is getting closer in 2025, with solid-state batteries used in a Ducati motorbike, and as PowerCo will be providing up to $131 million in new payments over the next two years upon the joint scale-up team achieving certain milestones.

“This expanded agreement is a clear signal of the growing strategic, technical, and financial alignment between the two companies.

It reflects our shared confidence in QSE-5 as a game-changing platform for the battery industry.”

Dr. Siva Sivaram – CEO and president of QunatumScape.

In 2025, Volkswagen agreed to provide up to $131 million in new payments over the next two years upon the joint scale-up team achieving certain milestones.

It also lets Volkswagen provide up to an extra 5 GWh of spare capacity QuantumScape has each year, for customers beyond Volkswagen Group, as well as the right to license certain future QS technology.

その他のパートナーシップ

The Volkswagen deals are not the only important deals for the company, as it has also undisclosed joint-development agreements with a major global automotive OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer), and agreements with the leading auto OEM by revenue, luxury and premium OEMs, as well as for stationary storage and consumer electronics.

QuantumScape is also ramping up partnerships to improve the mass production of its ceramic separator: on September 30, it announced an agreement with Corning (GLW ) to jointly develop ceramic separator manufacturing capabilities, and with Murata Manufacturing, with further progress in the collaboration, with both companies’ world-class ceramic manufacturing experts.

“Corning’s world-class capabilities in ceramics manufacturing make it an ideal addition to the QS technology ecosystem.

Together with our ecosystem partners, we’re building the foundation for scalable production of our high-performance solid-state batteries and furthering our mission to revolutionize energy storage.”

Dr. Siva Sivaram – CEO and President of QuantumScape

QuantumScape テクノロジー

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なぜ QuantumScape のアノードフリーデザインが重要なのか

One unique feature of the QuantumScape battery, which at the time of the reveal was considered revolutionary, is that it uses an anode-free design.

Since then, other experimental designs have further explored this concept, but it is still a rather rare and very advanced type of solid-state battery.

出典: QuantumScape

The anode-free design significantly improves the durability of the battery by eliminating capacity loss at the anode interface. It also further increases the battery density by removing the space and volume normally used by the anode in a normal battery.

No anode also means no need for material to build it and the associated manufacturing costs.

This gives the company a solid cost advantage not only against traditional lithium-ion designs, but also other future solid-state battery manufacturers (for example Toyota (TM ), see our report on this other automaker).

出典: QuantumScape

Like all solid-state batteries, QuantumScape’s design is significantly superior to lithium-ion batteries in almost all metrics:

• It can charge in just 15 minutes (10-80% at 45 ºC).
• The separator replacing the liquid electrolyte is nonflammable and noncombustible.
• Its battery cells’ energy density is 844 Wh/L and 301 Wh/kg.
  • For reference, Tesla’s 4680 cellsstand at 643 Wh/L and 241 Wh/kg, and BYD’s blade cells at ~375 Wh/l and 160 Wh/kg.

So while there might be a lot of reasons to still value Tesla highly (see our report for more info), the quality of the company’s batteries might not be one of them soon.

It should also be noted that these performances are likely going to be improved further once QuantumScape starts producing larger cell formats, with energy density >1.000 Wh/L likely reachable.

出典: QuantumScape

These results were hard-won and achieved thanks to the company’s early move into the anode-free solid-state battery space.

To date, it seems that it is mostly only CATL’s honeycomb battery architecture that seems likely to achieve a similar reduction in dendrite formation, and maybe ION’s anode-free solid-state batteries.

“It took us over 10 years, over two million tests, and over $300 million to get to the level of performance we have demonstrated, so we believe this is a very hard problem and will be difficult for competitors to solve.”

顧客の嗜好に合わせる

QuantumScape battery’s higher performance matches the general requirements for complete replacement of ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) vehicles with EVs:

• 最大走行距離が 375 マイル（約 600 キロメートル）以上。
• 最大 15 分での高速充電、かつフル充電で十分な走行距離が確保できることが前提。
• バッテリー寿命が最低 12 年／150,000 マイル（240,000 キロメートル）。
• ICE 車と同等のコスト。
• 極端な高温・低温環境でも安定して機能。
• 火災リスクがない。

当社の 24 層 A0 プロトタイプセルは、1,000 回以上のフル充放電サイクル相当を 95％ 以上のエネルギー保持率で完了しています。これは、約 300,000 マイル走行し、単一充電で約 300 マイルの走行距離を維持できることに相当します。

「この開発の最終結果は、長距離走行を可能にし、超高速充電ができ、実質的に劣化しないバッテリーセルになる可能性があります。」

Frank Blome – PowerCo CEO

The Cobra Separator: Scaling QuantumScape Manufacturing

QuantumScape batteries will be mostly manufactured in a highly automated facility in San Jose, California. It will use a new type of heat treatment for its newer “Cobra” cell design.

This 25x more efficient heat treatment drastically reduces the physical space taken by the battery production, making it a key in unfolding mass production. It is also less energy intensive, reducing costs somewhat furthers and improving the process’s green profile.

Later iterations of Cobra are expected to improve this element of the production process even further in the future. The Cobra separator process entered baseline production in 2025年6月 and should significantly improve throughput volumes.

QuantumScape (QS) の将来のマイルストーン

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While revealed publicly, the Ducati motorcycle will only undergo field testing in 2026, after equipment for higher production volume is installed in 2025.

Overall, 2026 is shaping up to be the transition moment for QuantumScape, when it moves from partnerships, agreements, and providing samples of its QSE-5 battery cells, toward the beginning of mass production and serious commercial deliveries.

However, before most Volkswagen bikes, and then cars, run on QuantumScape / PowerCo, a few years are still going to be required.

This is because, in the words of Elon Musk, back when Tesla was experiencing the difficulty of ramping up production above small batch volumes in 2017, “mass production is hell”.

結論

QuantumScape is a company that became very popular with investors in 2021, before experiencing a brutal stock price decline until 2025年7月, where skepticism over the company’s ability to ever reach mass production dominated the conversation around it.

It has since rebounded strongly from its lowest point, but is still far from its 2021 levels. As the deepening partnership with Volkswagen illustrates, today’s QuantumScape has a radically different risk profile than in the past.

It is now entering the expansion phase of its production capacity, finally seeing its batteries enter a commercial product with the Ducati motorbike, and getting ready to expand into EVs of the world’s second-largest automaker.

In parallel, it is also becoming a key partner for OEM companies looking for a non-Asian alternative battery supply.

So the long wait for QuantumScape moving past the startup phase is likely soon over. The recent stock price surge seems to show the market agrees as well, with the change in the company image still ongoing.

最新の QuantumScape (QS) 株式ニュースと開発情報