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ビットコインETFが登場、冷ややかな市場の反応: 次は何か？
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数か月にわたる投機と投資家の熱狂の後、ビットコイン・スポットETFがついにウォール街に登場しました。では、なぜビットコインはすでに上昇していないのでしょうか？
The 米国証券取引委員会が承認 spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) on 2024年1月10日, which empowers investors to buy into the cryptocurrency without having to navigate the crypto landscape’s exchanges, counterparty risk, or limited liquidity pools.
While the news was greeted by many 活気ある暗号通貨愛好家, who shared memes at scale about how rich the long-awaited approval is set to make them, Bitcoin remained barely moved by the announcement.
CoinGeckoのデータによると、ニュース直後のビットコインの24時間価格は資産価値が1％未満の上昇にとどまりましたが、アナリストはスポットビットコインETFの登場が暗号業界にとって画期的な瞬間になると指摘しています。
ビットコインETFを取り巻く誇大宣伝は、暗号通貨に対して非現実的な期待をもたらしたのでしょうか？SECの待望のETF承認が今後数か月にどのような影響を与えるか見てみましょう:
ビットコインETFの価値を定量化する
この段階では、ビットコインETFの登場が暗号通貨全体の将来にとってどれほど重要であるかを強調することが重要です。
SECの承認により、暗号通貨は投資家や機関投資家の広範な層が、暗号通貨取引の経験がほとんどなくてもビットコインを売買できるようになります。
The move also helps to bring greater levels of validation to a crypto landscape that’s struggled to earn the trust of investors owing to high-profile 取引所の崩壊, セキュリティ侵害, and 闇市場との関係.
“This ETF has two main impacts: increased distribution in the US (a moderate impact, as there have been ETFs outside of the US for years) and increased credibility of crypto as an ‘asset class’ (a very high impact),” explained Kevin de Patoul, CEO of crypto liquidity provider Keyrock, in a CNBC interview.
「現在、米国のビットコイン・スポットETFが存在し、ビットコインはもはや怪しいものや悪名高いものとは見なされません。これは主流の一般大衆の認識を大きく変えるものです。」
The numbers surrounding the value of a Bitcoin ETF are certainly cause for excitement too. With the world’s most famous cryptocurrency now available for financial institutions with a combined $100 trillion in assets under management, the prospective institutional inflows into an industry with a market capitalization of 約1.71兆ドル at the time of writing could be transformative.
“Projections range from substantial to record-breaking, with some envisioning flows in the multiple billions—an unprecedented feat in the ETF realm,” Anthony Rousseauが指摘, head of brokerage solutions at trading platform TradeStation.
Rousseau’s views were echoed by スタンダード・チャータードのアナリスト, who suggested that Bitcoin ETFs could draw $50 billion to $100 billion in 2024 alone as part of an inflow volume that could see the price of Bitcoin climb to $100,000.
(STD.DE )他方、より保守的な見積もりでは、流入ははるかに低く、5年間で550億ドルにとどまると主張しています。
ビットコインの価値の次は何か？
SECがビットコインETFを承認した後の数時間は概ね静かで、市場はETFの到来という見通しをすでに織り込んでいたことを示しています。
While there are lofty expectations among some analysts following the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, others believe that initial excitement will give way to a more gradual level of adoption.
“It wouldn’t shock me if ETF users broadly who are now looking at getting some exposure to bitcoin within the ETF vehicle are going to go through their normal review process to make sure that they’re comfortable with the ETF, and that often takes time,” David Mannが述べた, head of ETF products and capital markets at Franklin Templeton.
In an interesting turn of events, the hours following the SEC’s approval of Bitcoin ETF applications saw more investor interest switch to leading altcoin Ethereum.
Ethereum 13%以上上昇 in the space of 36 hours as investors speculated that the asset could be next to win ETF approval.
Above all else, Ethereum’s surprising outperformance in the wake of the Bitcoin ETF announcement highlights the rapid pace and speculative nature of cryptocurrency markets.
Given that the SEC approved Ethereum futures ETFs, there’s logic behind the speculation. With the commission failing to object to イーサリアムが商品として分類されること during this application process there’s potential for the arrival of an Ethereum spot ETF in the future.
ETFはビットコインに影響を与えない可能性はあるか？
It’s also worth addressing the elephant in the room. This unprecedented circumstance could have been factored into the price of Bitcoin over recent months and won’t influence the price of the cryptocurrency any further.
“There are already several other ETFs tracking Bitcoin’s price, and the new ETF might struggle to attract enough investors to be successful,” highlights Maxim Manturov, head of investment research at Freedom Finance Europe. “The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, and the price of Bitcoin could significantly drop, even if a Bitcoin ETF is approved.”
“There is no guarantee that Bitcoin will reach its previous all-time high after the long-awaited ETF is approved. However, a Bitcoin ETF could be a key catalyst for Bitcoin’s price growth,” Manturov added.
2024年にビットコインの上昇局面を求める投資家にとって、スポットビットコインETFへの流入レベルを把握するにつれて、数週間から数か月で答えが出てくる可能性があります。暗号通貨のように変動が激しい市場では何も保証できませんが、デジタル通貨の短い寿命におけるこのような変革的瞬間からは、慎重な楽観主義が得られるはずです。
