宇宙
スターライナーが宇宙に停滞している理由とそれがボーイングに与える意味は何か？
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ボーイングの苦境
There is no denying that Boeing’s reputation has taken severe hits over the last few years. It started in 2018 & 2019, with the two very high-profile crashes of the Lion Air Flight 610 and the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302, which killed 346 people. Later investigations proved that the crashes were avoidable and resulted from a string of bad design decisions and safety procedures from Boeing.
これに続いて2024年に複数の事故が発生し、特に飛行中に機体外板が外れることや離陸直後に着陸装置の車輪/タイヤが外れるという二つの別々の事象が報告されました。
This opened further investigation by US Federal authorities, and more than 10 whistleblowers are potentially ready to discuss the company’s mistakes.
“I have serious concerns about the safety of the 787 and 777 aircraft and I’m willing to take on professional risk to talk about them,” he said in his opening statement. He said when he raised concerns, “I was ignored. I was told not to create delays. I was told, frankly, to shut up.”
The untimely death of 2 of these whistleblowers also gave a very bad optic to the whole situation. (If you want to read a more detailed account of Boeing’s problems with quality control and airplanes, you can read our dedicated article “Boeing’s Reputation is in Shambles – How Has it Survived?”).
最後に、問題は古い機体だけに限らず、8月20日に発表された「ボーイングが主要エンジン取り付け構造の故障を受けて777Xテスト機隊を地上に止めた」というニュースでも明らかです（777Xはボーイングの次世代商用機です）。
The troubles at Boeing seemed mostly confined to the airplane division, with the airspace/military reputation only indirectly affected.
However, more bad news came soon regarding Boeing’s space division. At the forefront is the very public and embarrassing failure of the Starliner capsule on its first crewed mission to the ISS.
スターライナーの簡略史
Starliner is Boeing’s partially reusable (up to 10 missions) space capsule, designed to transport astronauts and equipment into orbit – primarly to the International Space Station (ISS).
ソース: Boeing
新しい宇宙レースのフォロワーにとって、これはほぼSpaceXのドラゴンカプセル (SPCX ) とイーロン・マスクのSpaceXの等価物です。
Starlinerは2010年にNASAに選ばれ、ドラゴンと共にISSへの人員輸送を担うことになりました。このミッションは、2011年に退役したスペースシャトルの代替として重要でした。その間、NASAはロシアの宇宙プログラムからの装備に依存していました。
ドラゴンは2020年末に初飛行し、2021年に乗組員をISSへ運び始めました。振り返ると、ウクライナ戦争が勃発しロシアとの関係が悪化する前に、NASAがソユーズへの依存をやめるタイミングでした。これまでにドラゴンは13回の成功した有人飛行を遂げています。
対照的に、スターライナーの最初の成功テスト飛行は当初2017年に予定されていましたが、2019年の部分的失敗の後、2022年に実施されました。
The first crewed test came in 2024年6月, initially scheduled to last just 8 days, with the 2 astronauts back soon. But its return has been regularly postponed so far, and there are serious chances it might take months before successful completion of the mission.
スターライナーで何が起きているのか？
スターライナーの問題点
The return to Earth from the ISS was initially scheduled for June 14th, 2024. However, concerning data about 5 maneuvering thrusters out of 28 failings, and a helium leak forced the departure to be postponed (the helium is used to pressurize the thrusters).
ソース: BBC
This has since been an ongoing PR disaster for Boeing.
- 最初の遅延は数週間に延長されました。
- NASAは合計で5か所のヘリウム漏れを確認しました。
- 7月3日、ボーイングの商業乗員プログラム副社長マーク・ナッピは「まだ立ち往生していない」と主張しました。
- 最初の予定日から2か月以上経過した現在でも、2名の宇宙飛行士の帰還は不確実で、NASAは対策を検討中です。したがって、ボーイング幹部の否定にもかかわらず、実際に「立ち往生」していると言えるでしょう。
- NASAは緊急時（火災や減圧）にはスターライナーを使用できると主張していますが、現時点ではそのような極端な状況以外での使用は意欲的ではありません。
なぜスターライナーは失敗したのか？
ヘリウム漏れ
A central issue is the multiple helium leaks. Faulty seals are being blamed for the problem.
これはある程度朗報とも言えます。漏れがそれほど深刻でなければ、再突入時にカプセルが危険にさらされることは少ないでしょう。
But of course, “probably” is a very uncomfortable adjective to add to the topic of astronaut survival for NASA, an organization built around a strong culture of safety, especially for crewed flights.
ソフトウェア & 自律飛行
Then there is the issue that even if NASA wanted to kick out Starliner back to Earth without a crew, its software is not able to do so.
It is unclear why the issue occurred, as Starliner’s previous test in 2022 was unmanned, and its software could then autonomously dock and return to Earth.
Sources described the process to update the software on Starliner as “non-trivial” and “significant,” and that it could take up to four weeks. This is what is driving the delay to launch Crew 9 (handled by SpaceX) later next month.
This ongoing debacle is reflecting rather poorly on Boeing after a re-read of the “5 ways the Boeing Starliner wows” in a press release by the company from April 4th, 2024:
- #1: 宇宙船は自律的に飛行し、コース修正が可能です。
- #2: 宇宙飛行士と地上クルーは制御レベルを選択できます。
- #3: スターライナーはソフトウェア主導です。
- #4: 宇宙飛行士は地球を離れる前に何百ものミッションを「飛んで」います。
- #5: 技術の背後には献身があります。
At the very least, it seems that #1 & #3 points are not wowing anybody at the moment.
“It seems that there are decision-makers at NASA who are unconvinced that a safe return can be guaranteed. We are heading inexorably towards a return on Space X’s” crafts.”
Simeon Barber – space scientist on BBC News – 14th of 2024年8月
結果
乗員
The first and more publicized consequence is the overly extended mission duration for the 2 astronauts who were initially supposed to stay just a week on the ISS.
幸いにも、二人とも非常にプロフェッショナルで経験豊富な宇宙飛行士です。ウィリアムズさんは海軍ヘリコプターの退役パイロットで、ISSへの3回目のミッションです。ウィルモアさんは元戦闘機パイロットで、これまでに2回宇宙へ行っています。
ソース: NASA
ISSへの供給が急務である特に尿を飲料水に変換するリサイクルシステムのため、二人の宇宙服はスターライナーから取り外されました。
代わりに予備の服と、ロシアからの補給船で届けられた追加食料が提供されました。これにより、長期滞在による重大なリスクは除去されました。
Other life support systems like air recycling are also fine, as these are designed with plenty of spare capacity just in case. So no danger to life, even with the other 4 Americans and 3 Russians are making the ISS crowded and its systems probably a little bit more strained than normal.
ドラゴンが使用できない
Something else the Starliner troubles revealed is that Williams & Wilmore’s Starliner space suits are not compatible with Dragon systems. So in order to get back to Earth with it, they would have to do it without a space suit.
This would be a very serious breach of safety protocols and, overall, an extremely dangerous procedure.
It is not very clear who is at fault here, with probably in the future a need for NASA to require every space suit to be made compatible with all capsules.
ドッキングポートの封鎖
The ISS has only a limited amount of docking ports, and with Starliner unable to be handled without a crew, this docking port is locked out of the ISS for now.
しかし、ISS全体で5つのドッキングポートがあるため、致命的な問題ではありません。
In more detail, the ISS has two docking ports for crew vehicles compatible with NASA systems (on top of the Russian ones). Still, the safety procedure is to always have enough capsules ready for an emergency evacuation of all crew, which makes NASA somewhat nervous to have a stuck Starliner on one of its 2 docking ports.
スターライナーはボーイングについて何を示しているか？
孤立した事故か？
Space exploration is difficult, and in isolation, Starliner’s problems are nothing spectacular. After all, the still well-respected space shuttle had many important issues, including problems leading to catastrophic failures and loss of lives.
It is important to recognize that the Starliner flight was a test flight, ultimately designed to detect such problems before relying on the capsule for sending larger crews. However, considering the recent issues of Boeing as a whole, this raises some questions about the company.
エンジニア中心のアプローチからの転換
Boeing was built from the early planes in WW1 to the aerospace & defense giant of today on the back of engineering excellence.
しかし、同社は徐々にエンジニア中心の文化から、財務目標や市場・株主への配慮を重視する方向へシフトしています。
This seems to manifest in problems not only in the airplane division but also in the company as a whole. For example, Starliner is not the only space program experiencing significant issues.
On the 8th of 2024年8月, a new report criticized the development of Boeing’s SLS rocket launcher, a key part of NASA’s plans to go back to the Moon.
ソース: NASA
The SLS program is now 7 years late, and its upper-stage development costs swelled from $962M to $2.8B.
Meanwhile, the Starliner project already caused Boeing to lose more than $1.5B in budget overruns.
Another major criticism from the recent report was an inadequately skilled and/or trained workforce:
“The lack of a trained and qualified workforce increases the risk that the contractor will continue to manufacture parts and components that do not adhere to NASA requirements and industry standards.”
変化への抵抗
Maybe more concerning for all parties involved, including NASA and taxpayers, is the apparent unwillingness of Boeing to admit there is a problem.
“Boeing remains confident in the Starliner spacecraft and its ability to return safely with crew.
We continue to support NASA’s requests for additional testing, data, analysis, and reviews to affirm the spacecraft’s safe undocking and landing capabilities. Our confidence is based on this abundance of valuable testing from Boeing and NASA.”
公共機関とボーイングの関係
In the recent report regarding the SLS, it also appeared that NASA’s leadership was somewhat reluctant to approach head-on the issues with Boeing.
Notably by imposing further penalties:
“NASA interprets this recommendation to be directing NASA to institute penalties outside the bounds of the contract.
There are already authorities in the contract, such as award fee provisions, which enable financial ramifications for noncompliance with quality control standards.”
Catherine Koerner – Associate Administrator for Exploration Systems Development – On Ars Technica
This is reminiscent of similar criticisms leveraged against the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) regarding Boeing’s plane crashes and other safety issues.
“After the 2018-19 737 Max accidents killed the 346 people, Boeing announced a litany of safety innovations or safety initiatives and here we are five years later still doing more safety initiatives.
“I’ve got to wonder what happened to the outcome or the success or the ignoring of those initiatives that were announced five years ago?” The FAA has some answers to provide because they too were involved in trying to make sure that Boeing became safer after the first Max crisis”.
Scott Hamilton – managing director of aviation consultancy Leeham Company on BBC
ボーイングを修復する方法
サプライヤー統合
A key issue that is discussed on the topic of “what happened to Boeing” is a recent tendency to prefer short-term cost-cutting and outsourcing to the lowest bidder, instead of in-house vertical integration.
One step in the right direction would be to re-integrate facilities and companies that were previously part of Boeing.
This is already happening with a key plane fuselage producer sold in 2005, as we discussed in our article “Can Re-Acquiring Spirit AeroSpace Get Boeing Back on Track?”
Simply put, more direct control over suppliers can help smoothen the design and manufacturing process, and give Boeing more control over the whole process.
文化の変革
Another factor is to bring back the engineer-focused culture to Boeing. Historically, Boeing’s success was built on the excellence not only of its technology and design but also of its manufacturing and quality control.
With revealed issues in software and manufacturing quality for planes and spaceships, Boeing’s problems seem deep-rooted and require a move away from the management method of the last decade, at least.
A new CEO & president, Robert Ortberg has been announced in 2024年7月 to take the helm of the company.
ボーイングへの投資は？
Looking at Boeing’s stock price chart, it is not very clear that it has serious issues, even if the stock has been trading below its 2018 peak.
ソース: Yahoo Finance
The recent stock price resilience is, however less impressive when put into perspective of the industry as a whole, which is moving higher on geopolitical concerns and growing aerospace and defense spending, as illustrated for example, by the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)
ソース: Yahoo Finance
How relevant Starliner will be to Boeing’s future is debatable. For example, Ron Epstein, an analyst at Bank of America said on NPR (BAC ):
“Boeing management has been clear, I think, to the investment community that Starliner and certain aspects of space are just not core to them. I wouldn’t be surprised if the company wouldn’t want to continue.”
Meanwhile, the ISS is scheduled to be retired by 2030, so further delays in Starliner approval could further reduce its overall profitability.
So, it is possible that Boeing will just walk away from the program, even if Mark Nappi, Boeing’s vice president for its Commercial Crew Program, strongly denies it for now: “No, we’re not going to back out. “This is our job.”
Currently, the defense & space segment reported a $900M loss driven in part by an issue on the KC-46A program, aiming to rebuild the US Air Force tanker fleet.
In the long run, it is likely that Boeing’s fate will not depend so much on its space program than its civilian airplane and defense revenues.
Besides reducing losses from its military and space programs, Boeing (and its stock) will benefit greatly from restoring its reputation for building high-quality & safe civilian airplanes.
ボーイングの競合他社への投資は？
As the saying goes, “One man’s joy is another man’s sorrow“. Boeing’s problems can be other companies’ opportunity to shine, and grab market shares and opportunities.
So, maybe investing in Boeing’s competitors can be an option as well, in addition to assessing whether or when Boeing will recover, especially with a new space race and growing geopolitical tensions.
You can invest in aerospace companies through many brokers, and you can find here, on securities.io, our recommendations for the best brokers in the USA, Canada, Australia, the UK, as well as many other countries.
If you are not interested in picking specific aerospace companies, you can also look into ETFs like ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX), iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA), or SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF, which will provide a more diversified exposure to capitalize on the aerospace industry.
Or you can read our article about the “Top 10 Aerospace and Defense Stocks”.
1. Airbus (EADSY)
As the dominant commercial jet manufacturer beside Boeing, Airbus is already benefiting from the struggle of its main competitor.
“What used to be a duopoly has become two-thirds Airbus, one-third Boeing.
With quality control essential, Airbus gains in the rivalry between the world’s biggest plane makers by being seen as “competent.”
By far, Airbus is more focused on commercial airplanes than any other sector, with its space and helicopter segment making only a quarter of its overall revenues.
In helicopters, half of its revenues are from defense contracts. In space & defense, only 18% of its revenues are from space systems, with the rest made of airpower (defense) and connected intelligence.
ソース: H1 2024 Airbus
Overall, Airbus is likely to benefit long-term from the damage to Boeing’s reputation. It might however have to contend with new competitors.
Most importantly, the launch of the C919, the first Chinese homegrown commercial jet, could bring new pressure in an already very competitive market.
The C919 already saw a few large orders, including 100 planes by China Southern and another 100 planes ordered by Air China.
It might still take a while, as non-Chinese airlines might prefer to wait a few years and observe the overall reliability & costs associated with the C919, before committing to an entirely new and unfamiliar airplane design.
For example, it took 7 years from its first flight in 2017 for the C919 to register these large orders, and it is still only by the Civil Aviation Administration of China.
2. Lockheed Martin Corporation
LMT 価格チャート
Lockheed is behind some of the most powerful (and expensive) weapon programs in the USA, like the F-35. The stealth plane developed together with Northrop Grumman (NOC ) and BAE Systems (BSP.DE ) suffered a troubled development but is now “debugged” and getting built in large quantities, with demand outpacing production.
While it is active in all branches of the military, the company is mostly active in advanced technologies and aerospace, with aeronautics representing $6.2B of revenues in Q1 2023, missiles & fire control $2.3B (including the HIMARS, now famous in Ukraine), rotary (helicopters) $3.5B, and space $2.9B, for total sales of $15.1B total sales.
Lockheed is also active in cyber defense and naval systems (AEGIS anti-air systems and long-range anti-ship missiles).
ソース: Lockheed Martin
It is present in the most advanced segment of the defense industry, including AI & autonomous weapons, electronic warfare, hypersonic missiles, laser weapons,
Ever since the massive military build-up of World War 2, Lockheed Martin has been a central part of the US defense industry. This is unlikely to change any time soon. Air superiority is the central tenet of NATO military doctrine, after all.
The company is also likely to be a prime recipient of increasing military spending from the US allies, as illustrated by the recent sales of F-35 to Finland, Switzerland, and Germany, or the 486 HIMARS artillery systems ordered by Poland (more than the USA itself operates).
When it comes to space programs, Lockheed is leading the development of the Orion, expected to carry the first American astronauts back to the Moon in more than 50 years.
Overall, besides private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin, Lockheed is among the rare companies with the experience and capacity to develop crewed modules, including for deep-space missions like the Artemis mission.
So Lockheed could be a likely candidate to take over Boeing’s position with NASA, would Boeing decide to exit this sector or fail to adequately fix Starliner.
