エネルギー
他の水素燃料 – トップ5グリーンアンモニア株式
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液体燃料を置き換える探求
As renewable energies progress, some limitations are becoming clearer. The intermittency of renewables requires the presence of energy storage. This could be in the form of batteries, as we explored in our article “エネルギー貯蔵の未来 – ユーティリティ規模バッテリー技術”.
しかし、エネルギー消費の形態の中には電化に非常に抵抗があるものがあります。例えば、長距離の海上輸送や航空貨物です。
トラック輸送も、必要なバッテリーの重量やバッテリー生産能力の制約により、これまで電気トラックへの転換に失敗しています。これが長年にわたりテスラ・セミの遅延要因となっています。
主に、これらの制約はガソリン・ディーゼル・灯油が極めてエネルギー密度が高く、最高のバッテリーよりもはるかに多くのエネルギーを蓄えることができるという事実に起因しています。
(TSLA )したがって、石油製品の代替となる液体燃料の概念は非常に魅力的です。一つの案としてバイオ燃料があり、これは本質的に化石燃料と同じ製品を再生可能資源から生産します。このテーマは私たちが記事「藻類バイオ燃料：次なるエネルギー革命？」で取り上げました。
別の案として、宇宙で最も豊富な原子である水素をエネルギー貯蔵に利用する方法があります。しかし、気体水素には経済的に生産する難しさや、液化・輸送・貯蔵にかかるエネルギーコストなど、いくつかの制約があります。
エネルギーを貯蔵するために水素原子が必ずしもH2ガスの形である必要はありません。大気の4/5thを占める窒素という、もう一つの極めて豊富な元素が役立ちます。
エネルギーキャリアとしてのアンモニア
単純な化学
Ammonia, or NH3, is a fertilizer and can be burned or oxidized to produce nitrogen and water.
NH3 +O2 → N2 + H2O
したがって、理想的な条件下では有害でない副産物しか生じない点で、水素燃焼と多少似ています（詳細は後述）。
水素との違いは、アンモニアがH2に比べてはるかに大きな分子であり、はるかに安定していることです。これにより輸送と貯蔵が格段に容易になります。また、アンモニアは液体水素よりも約50%高いエネルギー密度を持ちます。
Hydrogen liquefaction 含有エネルギーの44.7%を浪費します、なぜなら-253°C (-423°F). Keeping it liquid leads to more losses, increasing with the duration of storage, potentially up to 79% losses for seasonal storage.
「一方、アンモニアは大気圧で-33°C以下に冷却するか、20°Cで7.5バール以上に加圧することで液化できます—水素に必要な条件よりはるかに実現しやすい条件です。このプロセスは約99%の効率になる可能性があります」。
既存のインフラストラクチャ
Ammonia is not a rarely produced chemical, with it being a key component in the production of fertilizer, but also plastics and explosives. This means there is already an existing industry and supply chain for the mass production of ammonia, although somewhat dependent on fossil fuels for now. It also makes it a well-understood and efficient process. Overall, ammonia is the second most highly produced chemical in the world.
Ideally, an ammonia economy would rely on so-called green ammonia, generated from renewable energy. This distinguished it from other types of ammonia:
- グレー/ブラウンアンモニア：化石燃料から製造される。
- ブルーアンモニア：化石燃料から製造されるが、炭素回収が行われる。
- ピンクアンモニア（時にイエローアンモニアとも呼ばれる）：原子力エネルギーから製造される。
- ターコイズアンモニア：メタンの熱分解から製造される。メタンは水素と固体炭素に分解され、水素は後にアンモニアに変換される。固体炭素は貯蔵または炭素繊維などの用途に利用できる。
And while a lot less extensive than the fossil fuels network, there is no less than 5,000 km (3,100 miles) of ammonia pipeline in the US (and 490,000 km of high-pressure natural gas pipelines). With ammonia being non-corrosive and not damaging steel pipes like hydrogen (“embrittlement ”), new pipelines could be relatively inexpensive.
This would nevertheless require massive investment in both production capacity and pipelines. To replace just half of the global natural gas consumption would require multiplying by 20 the global ammonia production.
Depending on the exact solution adopted, ammonia could work as an energy storage and transfer system with an efficiency (returned energy) ranging from 84%-38%.
アンモニアの制限
The problem with using ammonia directly for energy is that combustion is seldom a perfectly efficient process. When ammonia is impartially burned, it produces NOx gases, which are toxic, as well as greenhouse gases (300x more potent than CO2).
Several solutions have been proposed, including:
- 化石燃料と組み合わせた燃料ブレンドでグリーンアンモニアを燃焼させる。
- 水素と組み合わせた燃料ブレンドでグリーンアンモニアを燃焼させる。
- 液体アンモニアを貯蔵現場で直接圧縮水素に変換し、燃料ステーションのようにオンデマンドで供給する。「クラック」と呼ばれるプロセス。
- 水素用と同様の専用燃料電池を使用し、直接電気を生成して電動モーターを駆動する。
- NOxが放出される前に触媒で除去する。この際、これらの触媒はパラジウム、プラチナ、ロジウムなど極めて高価な金属であることが多く、化石燃料車のNOx削減にも使用されている。純粋にアンモニア燃焼だけでは、これらの触媒が大量に必要になる可能性がある。
As NOx are powerful greenhouse gases, making sure we don’t see them replacing CO2 is a must to justify transitioning to an ammonia economy.
水素キャリアとしてのアンモニア
As mentioned above, ammonia (NH3) can be “cracked” back into nitrogen (N2) and hydrogen (H2). This means that even if the issue of NOx emission proves unsolvable, there is still potential for an ammonia economy.
In this context, ammonia is used directly for storage, transportation, as well some niche applications. And get turned into hydrogen in a gaseous form (even if compressed) to power vehicles through direct combustion or fuel cells.
This allows the decarbonized economy to enjoy a few key benefits of ammonia’s physical and chemical characteristics:
- 液体燃料の製造時のエネルギー損失が低減し、なおかつ再生可能エネルギーで行える。
- 過剰発電（強い太陽光・風力）の期間に低コストの再生可能エネルギーを利用して、燃料全体の製造コストを削減できる。
- 数か月単位の貯蔵が可能で、エネルギーシステムのレジリエンスを確保できることは、モビリティにとってほぼ必須です。例えば、ハリケーンで電力網が停止しても、完全にEV中心のシステムと違い、供給チェーンや救急車、車両は稼働し続けられます。
- 数か月単位の貯蔵は、晴天や風が強い月の余剰生産を、再生可能エネルギーが少ない月の燃料供給に変換することも可能にします。
So it is possible that talking of an ammonia economy or a hydrogen economy might be a little misleading.
A more likely scenario is a mixed ammonia-hydrogen economy, with each technology leveraged to perform best on its strong points:
- 輸送、長期貯蔵、そして晴天や風の強い日の余剰エネルギーを「吸収」するためにアンモニアを利用する。
- 直接利用、短期貯蔵、そして鋼鉄製造やジェットエンジンのように迅速かつ高エネルギー出力が必要な用途に水素を利用する。
This is a scenario where nuclear power plants could also play a role in decarbonization, even without mass adoption of EVs, thanks to “pink ammonia” providing a low-carbon source of liquid fuel.
アンモニア経済への道筋
The road map for ammonia adoption is a little harder to determine. Some research estimates that an ammonia-driven economy, using mass production of green ammonia (2nd generation), is unlikely before 2030.
In this scenario, more efficient ammonia production relying on direct electroreduction (3rd generation) would take over only at the end of the 2030s, due to the technology being today in its early stages, especially efficient electrocatalysts.
出典: Science Direct
Overall, there are massive hopes for green ammonia growth, with some estimates considering the current $300M market could turn into a giant $17.9B market, or an astonishing 72.9% CAGR by 2030.
トップ5グリーンアンモニア株式
このリストはグリーンアンモニアまたはグリーン水素企業に焦点を当てています。しかし、現在のアンモニア生産のリーダーであるCF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF ) （CF）やYara International ASA（YAR.OL）などは、将来的にグリーンアンモニアへ転換する可能性が高く、選択肢となり得ます。
1. Aker Horizons ASA（AKH.OL）
Aker Horizon is the subsidiary of the Aker group centered around green energy. The group is an important Norwegian conglomerate, with a focus on renewables and marine/offshore businesses.
出典: Aker
Aker Horizon is the holding company for several subsidiaries including carbon capture, green hydrogen, and renewable energies.
出典: Aker
The company is notably very active in hydrogen and green ammonia generation, with a goal to decarbonize Arctic shipping.
出典: Aker
So Aker is not a purely green ammonia company but can handle the entire vertical integration of green ammonia, from offshore windmills to hydrogen generation to green ammonia production. It is also working on projects like waste-to-energy in France, a biomass plant in Germany, and carbon capture in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia and UAE).
This makes it a good stock for investors looking for exposure to the green energy sector at large, with a strong positioning on green ammonia, but also other green energies, and some geographical diversification.
2. Plug Power Inc.（PLUG）
Plug Power (PLUG ) is a leader in green hydrogen, with a focus on fuel cells. Notably, its fuel cells power over 40,000 forklifts, with revenues up x8 since 2013. It is also active in building hydrogen infrastructure like hydrogen production, logistics, utility-scale power generation, and deliveries.
出典: Plug Power
The company is aiming for scale to reduce production costs from $10/kg to $4/kg, while multiplying production by 14x in 2027.
出典: Plug Power
Due to massive investments to increase production capacity 19x since 2020, the company is not profitable yet. This led to almost doubling revenue from the beginning to the end of 2023. Most of the current and projected business is expected to come from North America.
The company sees its solution as either a direct mobility fuel, or a complement to EVs, as hydrogen allows to reduce the pressure on the grid of EVs peak charging not matching the times of production of renewables in the day.
出典: Plug Power
As a major fuel cell producer, Plug Power would benefit strongly from a turn toward a hydrogen/ammonia-based economy. While not directly active in ammonia production, the company is mostly focused on green hydrogen production (required for green ammonia production) and fuel cells, both components that would be still in high demand in case hydrogen alone is not working out.
So this makes Plug Power a good stock to bet on a turn toward hydrogen in general, with or without ammonia. If the limitation of hydrogen regarding logistics and storage turns out to be un-surmountable, it would still profit from a hydrogen+ammonia economy.
3. Ballard Power Systems Inc.（BLDP）
Ballard is another fuel cell manufacturer, and a pioneer of the technology with its first fuel cell bus in 1993.
The company is focused on heavy-duty markets: buses, trucks, trains/trams, ships, mining/construction, and power. While buses have been the core of the business, the company expects that by 2025 trucks will be a major business segment. It also expects Europe to stay its main market (50-60%), followed by North America (25%).
Trucking fuel cells are expected to keep growing and represent a $7.5B market in 2030 (from a $195B TAM), almost as large as all the other hydrogen/fuel cell applications combined.
出典: Ballard
Because of the higher power required, and the need for quick charging, heavy-duty vehicles have been a good pick for hydrogen and fuel cells over lighter vehicles like cars. It also reduces the need for catenary wire for rail, and fast recharging for long-distance hauling.
出典: Ballard
The company is not a stranger to ammonia either, with for example a recent contract with Amogy to provide it with fuel cells for its “ammonia-to-power platform which relies on unique ammonia cracking technology”.
While EVs have a reasonable chance to quickly take over the car markets, heavier vehicles are harder to decarbonize. With its established leadership in the sector, Ballard would be a prime beneficiary of a policy push toward a hydrogen economy.
4. FuelPositive Corporation（NHHHF）
FuelPositive has created a modular/containerized green ammonia generation system. Its first target is the agricultural sector, allowing for on-site ammonia production with locally produced energy. The system can generate up to 300kg/day, 100 tons per year of ammonia for CA$950,000.
出典: Fuel Positive
This makes it a system fits for farms up to 1,800 acres. With just 1.5 acre of land covered with solar panels enough to power the ammonia generation.
出典: Fuel Positive
FuelPositive claim its system can produce ammonia for CA$560/ton, which is in line with historical price, and more importantly, would shield farmers from the extreme price volatility they experienced in the last few years, with ammonia shooting up to $1350/ton at one point.
出典: BusinessAnalitIQ
The start-up is at an early stage, with full-scale production scheduled for 2025, and 30 orders confirmed so far, with the first delivery scheduled for 2024年3月.
The main strength of FuelPositive is the modularity of its technology, allowing for a more distributed approach and standardized mass production of its ammonia generation module.
The company is building a partnership with Cipher Neutron, which can produce hydrogen without any metal of the platinum group.
While the primary focus is fertilizer production, the ammonia could be used to power farming engines with energy produced on-site, depending on the speed of adoption of ammonia/hydrogen-powered farming tools.
The decentralized and modular nature of FuelPositive systems could also make them a key element of a future ammonia economy. The fertilizer market can provide the gap for the company to grow until the use of hydrogen and ammonia is more widespread.
5. AmmPower Corp.（AMMPF）
AmmPower is similar to FuelPositive in that it provides modular ammonia generation systems, but at a larger scale, with its base module able to produce 4 tons/day. This put the company more into the field of very large farms (10,000+ acres) or industrial operations like textiles, refrigeration, mining, pharmaceuticals, or semiconductors.
出典: AmmPower
The company is in the process of building its order book, with the near-term booking potential estimated at $30M, and sale prospects for 690 units from 52 countries.
The company estimates the electricity cost to be around $360/ton of ammonia.
The modularity of the system allows for a quick turnaround and deliveries, with less than a year compared to the 3-4 years of similar projects without the modular approach.
It is also working on technology to transform waste into ammonia, in a joint venture with CTEC Energy Sales USA.
To further the progress of ammonia into a hydrogen-ammonia economy, it is creating a dedicated subsidiary dedicated to cracking ammonia into hydrogen, which will look for additional funding separately.
By striking the scale that might fit most industrial usage, as well as very large farms, AmmPower is aiming for clients and companies with deeper access to capital than most. Combined with ammonia cracking technology, this could allow it to scale up quickly following policies to push for the development of hydrogen as an energy carrier.
