Chequeo de Realidad a Medio de Semana: ¿Vale la Hype de Grayscale y X?

Inconvenient or outright bad news can spread like wildfire, changing the sentiment surrounding entire markets.  Over the years, this has been commonplace within a digital asset sector rife with volatility.  However, this works both ways, with yesterday being a prime example of how potentially good news can spread quickly, changing market sentiment at a moment’s notice.  Based on social media, though, a mid-week reality check may be needed to reign in some of the excitement.  The following is a brief look at the two storylines that have been circulating as of late, and why sunshine and roses are not a sure thing.

Un ETF de Grayscale NO Ha Sido Aprobado

In a hotly anticipated verdict, courts presiding over Grayscale vs. SEC se pronunciaron a favor of the former.  This has resulted in many believing that the company’s application to convert its GBTC Trust into a Spot-Bitcoin ETF, which was denied by the SEC only to now be overturned, allows for the conversion to occur.  This was simply not the case.

While the verdict was most definitely a resounding win for Grayscale and the looming mainstream adoption of digital assets like Bitcoin, the courts simply found that the SEC did not adequately explain or prove its reasoning behind its denial, agreeing that its past actions were both ‘arbitrary and capricious’.  With this being the case, the Grayscale application will simply re-enter the growing queue of similar products for re-evaluation.

“La Comisión no explicó adecuadamente por qué aprobó la cotización de dos ETP de futuros de bitcoin pero no el ETP de bitcoin propuesto por Grayscale. En ausencia de una explicación coherente, este trato regulatorio desigual de productos similares es ilegal. Por lo tanto, concedemos la petición de revisión de Grayscale y anulamos la orden de la Comisión.”

Much has been made about this development, pointing to a bulk approval of multiple applications this week. However, the SEC may full well opt to continue delaying the approval of such products for as long as possible.  This means potentially waiting until early 2024 before a final yay or nay is required.

En resumen, con este fallo, la aprobación de un ETF Spot de Bitcoin parece más probable que nunca. Es importante reconocer que esto aún no ha ocurrido, y puede que no suceda por algún tiempo, si es que ocurre.

Notably, this loss marks the second such result experienced by the SEC in as many months, with the divisive regulator having also failed to prove its assertions against Ripple in court.

Las Intenciones de X No Son Claras

Another development yesterday, which saw X (formerly Twitter) awarded a currency-transmitter license in the State of Rhode Island, has been painted as a move showing the company’s progress towards the integration of digital assets in its platform.  This may be the case, but at this point, it is purely speculation.

While X already holds money transmitter licenses in various other States, these are specific to assets deemed money (i.e., FIAT).  Although a licencia de transmisor de moneda may extend to include digital assets, the company has not indicated that it was attained for this purpose.

As it stands, we know that X is set to transition to an ‘everything-app’, with the company already having said as much. Also, these licenses only represent a small portion of the United States and do not directly point to any immediate integration of digital assets.

Like the ruling on Grayscale vs. SEC, it is difficult to deny the path that X appears to be headed down, but for the time being, prudence is a practical approach.

Palabra Final

En conclusión, con ambos desarrollos, no cuentes tus pollos antes de que echen los huevos. No hay garantías de que alguno de ellos resulte positivo, sin importar el cambio de sentimiento. Planea para lo peor y espera lo mejor.