La Preparación Tecnológica Podría Redefinir los Rendimientos de los Mercados Emergentes

Históricamente, el crecimiento económico de los mercados emergentes ha estado ligado a las inversiones extranjeras que impulsan la productividad de estos países al traer fábricas, mejores prácticas empresariales y una modernización general.

Esto ha sido una fuerza importante que impulsa el desarrollo en los mercados emergentes y para la economía global, y cada vez más países se industrializan, siendo el ejemplo más impresionante China, que en unas pocas generaciones pasó de una economía agraria a ser líder mundial en tecnología y manufactura.

Sin embargo, los resultados no siempre son tan directos.

Los beneficios de la inversión extranjera dependen de si el país anfitrión cuenta con la infraestructura, la fuerza laboral calificada, la capacidad nacional de I+D y la financiación necesaria para absorber la tecnología importada.

Este factor puede sintetizarse como “preparación tecnológica”.

Un nuevo estudio de investigadores de la University of Nottingham Malaysia, la International Islamic University Malaysia, la University of Bahrain y la Katip Celebi University (Turquía) está investigando el efecto de la preparación tecnológica en el crecimiento económico sostenible derivado de las inversiones extranjeras.

Encontraron que los efectos de las inversiones extranjeras están modulados por la preparación tecnológica, y sus efectos de derrame varían según el nivel de ingresos. Entre muchos factores, la preparación en I+D es el habilitador clave para mejorar los rendimientos de las inversiones extranjeras.

Publicaron sus hallazgos en International Review of Economics & Finance¹, bajo el título “Towards sustainable economic growth: The role of Technology Readiness and Foreign Direct Investment”.

La Pregunta del Desarrollo Sostenible

PIB y IED

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is increasingly seen as a poor measure of development because it tends not to incorporate much invisible capital (human, knowledge) and can be misleading in counting development activities that are ultimately polluting or otherwise destructive, and therefore not sustainable in the long term.

As such, a deeper understanding of the factors leading to sustainable economic growth is needed. This is of course of interest to decision-makers, but also to investors, who will want to correctly evaluate the economic prospects of a given country or region over a 5-10 year horizon.

A key reason for underdevelopment has been a lack of access to technology enabling productivity gains. Therefore, it stands to reason that foreign direct investment (FDI), which plays a particularly important role in bridging the technological divide between advanced and developing economies, should be a key factor in economic growth in developing economies.

“FDI is defined as a cross-border investment in which a resident entity in one economy acquires a lasting interest and significant degree of influence over an enterprise resident in another economy.”

Capacidad de Absorción y Preparación Tecnológica

But of course, foreign investments are only as productive as the local economy can make them. Natural resources, available energy sources, labor, and infrastructure are all required for the investment to be productive. Altogether, this can be described as the “absorptive capacity” of the economy receiving FDIs.

But when it comes to focusing on technology transfer, a more efficient concept is technology readiness. It assesses whether a country has the infrastructure, human capital, innovation ecosystem, industrial base, and financial systems to manage the absorption of new technologies.

This is why the UNCTAD Technology Readiness Index was created. It covers five theoretically grounded and empirically distinct components:

• ICT deployment.
• Skills development.
• R&D activity.
• High-technology manufacturing and digital services delivery.
• Access to finance.

Evaluación de la Preparación Tecnológica

Recopilación de Datos

The researchers used the database with the countries listed in the Frontier Technology Readiness Index, developed by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), and later subdivided it based on income levels as defined by the Global Financial Development Database (GFDD). This covered the period from 2009-2019 over 154 countries.

Technical efficiency was estimated using the Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) as a proxy for economic sustainability.

Other data were also included in the study:

• Inflation in a given country was measured by the logarithm of the consumer price index.
• Trade openness  was measured by the ratio of the sum of exports and imports to GDP.
• The Human Development Index is obtained from Human Development Reportto represent the quality and availability of the human capital.
• And controlling for corruption levels, as lower corruption reduces the cost of doing business in the country.

Efectos de la IED

The first result of the study is to show that FDI was negatively associated with overall efficiency across the full sample.

So the capital and labor inflows associated with FDI do not automatically generate higher real GDP. It also suggests that many host economies are ineffective in leveraging FDI and the accompanying economies of scale to spur growth.

This confirms previous studies showing that FDI in itself tends to deepen economic, political, and social dependence, ultimately leading to negative spillover effects.

However, technology readiness mitigates the negative impact of FDI on overall efficiency in host countries.

So while the average effect of FDI is a mixed bag, they are more likely to enhance overall efficiency in countries with strong absorptive capabilities by the host countries.

“Consequently, they can leverage FDI from multinational corporations (MNCs) in moving towards a higher frontier of technological advancement. These dynamic supports increased innovation and invention, both of which are essential for sustaining long-term economic growth.”

¿Qué Parte de la Preparación Tecnológica es Importante?

The first finding of the study is that industrial readiness did not significantly moderate the relationship between FDI and economic efficiency across the full sample. The researchers think it might be that a longer time horizon is often required to observe measurable outcomes, as local firms must first acquire, assimilate, and operationalize the relevant technologies.

Another important finding is that the key factor in making technology readiness turn FDI into a boost to efficiency is local R&D activity. This moderating effect is more pronounced in lower-middle-income countries than in low-income countries

“Readiness in terms of domestic R&D activity facilitates learning and knowledge absorption from foreign upstream firms and thus serves as a critical threshold condition for translating FDI inflows into improved economic efficiency.”

Another factor is the availability of financing, as available funding facilitates the absorption, adaptation, and adoption of foreign technologies by local firms and talents.

ICT infrastructure also strengthened the relationship between FDI and economic efficiency. Its importance varied by income group, reinforcing the broader conclusion that no single component of technology readiness operates independently.

Los Ingresos de los Países Importan

The study also found that FDI has overall the least positive impact in the lowest income countries group. This is consistent with previous literature, which posits that a minimum threshold of technological and institutional development is required before countries can fully benefit from FDI.

Interestingly, the effect of FDI also ranges from moderate to low for upper-middle-income countries. In this case, much of the basic technology transfer and knowledge diffusion from foreign investors may already have occurred, so the additional benefit from new FDI inflows is smaller.

So this points out that the strongest benefit of FDI is concentrated on lower-middle-income countries, especially if they have the financial, skills, and R&D capacity to leverage access to new technologies.

Another interesting situation is high-income countries. They too come close to completely neutralizing the negative efficiency effect of FDI. In this case, stronger technology and institutional foundations are the most important factors.

Another element to take into consideration is that FDI toward “rich” countries tends to fill a local gap in tech capacity and is generally not done to capitalize on cheaper labor, energy, etc. So such FDI will likely directly translate in increased local production and acquisition of new technological capacity.

Conclusiones para los Inversores

Maybe the most important information from this study for investors is that FDI is not always helping a country’s productivity or efficiency. If improperly done, it can even have overall negative effects. So investors should not judge headline investment commitments evaluated by their dollar value alone.

Another important point is that low-income countries should be seen as the least able to integrate complex technologies. In this case, FDI toward simpler processes is more likely to bring positive results.

A more refined approach will be to consider the country’s R&D expenses, as this is the most determining factor in boosting FDI positive effects. An eye on available finance, as well as IT infrastructure, will also matter. However, counterintuitively, existing industrial capacity is not a major factor.

So when performing macro analysis and identifying promising countries or regions, investors should look at FDI through this lens, correctly assessing not just a country’s ability to attract foreign investments, but also if it has the foundations needed to use it effectively.

Invertir en Infraestructura de TI e IA

Microsoft Corporation

As a leader in B2B software, tech infrastructure, and AI, Microsoft (MSFT ) is the type of company most likely to benefit from global economic growth.

It is also itself a major driver of foreign investment, with major expenditure toward building technological capacity abroad. For example, it recently announced major AI infrastructure investments all over the world: $30B in the UK, $15B in the UAE, €4B in Germany, and $1.7B in Indonesia.

Overall, the company is aiming for $50B in investment across the Global South by the end of the decade to support local AI adoption. It will follow a five-part program to drive AI impact.

Fuente: Microsoft

Meanwhile, its Elevate for Educators program in India aims to train 2 million teachers and equip 8 million students with essential AI capabilities.

Besides these initiatives, Microsoft has been expanding its network of local Azure cloud computing infrastructure, connectivity, and data centers & AI in general.

It has also built a deep international network of research partnerships, developed ecosystems, and local engineering operations, working as both direct FDI and an enabler of other FDI in a given country.

Lastly, the cloud computing capacity of the company allows local companies to deploy and develop advanced capabilities.

However, investors should be aware, as the study showed, that not every foreign investment will bear fruit, either for the receiving country or for the company’s shareholders. The digital space and AI is an increasingly competitive market, and Chinese companies are making inroad in poorer countries with open source AI model that might compete efficiently against the more close approach to software & AI of American companies (except for Meta).

Still, these initiatives should help Microsoft get or maintain a foothold in new, quickly growing markets, and tap into global talent pools. So Microsoft can serve as an investable example of a company pairing foreign capital with infrastructure and skills to expand both profits and economic development.

(You can also read more about Microsoft in our investment report dedicated to the company)

Últimas Noticias y Desarrollos de Microsoft (MSFT)

Estudio Referenciado

^{1. Sok-Gee Chan, et al. Towards sustainable economic growth: The role of Technology Readiness and Foreign Direct Investment. International Review of Economics & Finance. 27 agosto de 2026. Artículo: 105779. 10.1016/j.iref.2026.105779} en español.