Acuerdo energético entre Canadá y la India: ¿Qué significa para el comercio y los inversores?

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, met on Monday to reset their ties after a turbulent past few years.

Carney is currently on a four-day visit to the South Asian country, which began on February 28. This “historic” trip comes amid heightened global tensions after the US and Israel struck Iran el fin de semana.

Under the leadership of Carney, Canada is working on rebuilding economic relations with India after bilateral ties between the two deteriorated sharply in 2023 following the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada. India designated him a terrorist, while Canada referred to him as a Sikh separatist leader.

At the time, former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said there was “credible evidence” that linked Indian government agents to the killing of a Sikh separatist leader on Canadian soil, an allegation India rejected, leading to a pause in trade talks.

Recientemente, Ottawa stated that India is not currently linked to violent threats in Canada.

During the recent two-year diplomatic freeze between the two, India has reached agreements with several countries, including the UK and the EU. This has left Canada among the few G7 countries, alongside Japan and the US, without a preferential trade agreement with India.

But as India changed its policy, it created “a window of opportunity” for comprehensive deals, which Canada is now taking advantage of.

With his first visit to India, which is also the first by a Canadian prime minister since 2023, Carney aims to deepen trade and supply chain ties, stabilize relations amid rising global tensions, and expand cooperation further. This Indo-Pacific push is also an attempt to diversify trading partners amid increasingly uncertain relations between Canada and the US.

The discussions between the Prime Ministers of the two countries are set to focus on education, investment, agriculture, energy cooperation, and artificial intelligence (AI).

“Arrived in New Delhi to meet with Prime Minister Modi. Canada and India are two confident and ambitious nations that want to build boldly together. We’re forging new partnerships in energy, talent, and innovation, and AI – to create greater security and prosperity for our peoples,” said Carney in a post on X.

The two nations have already signed an initial pact to collaborate on the development and deployment of AI under the Australia-Canada-India Technology and Innovation (ACITI) Partnership.

The prime ministers also announced that their national space agencies will work together on quantum technologies and space exploration. Also, HCL Technologies, India’s major software company, will increase its workforce in Canada by 75% in the next four years.

Finally, progress is expected on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). According to a statement from Carney’s office, the two countries aim to conclude a new CEPA this year to advance their goal of doubling bilateral trade by 2030.

The meeting between the heads of the democratic nations marks an important moment in India-Canada relations.

“Commemorating 79 years of establishment of diplomatic relations, the Leaders reaffirmed the importance of the Canada–India relationship, grounded in shared democratic values, deep people-to-people ties, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a joint commitment to the rule of law,” reads the joint leaders’ statement.

This new era of bilateral trade cooperation could reach $50 billion by the end of this decade, signalling stronger economic engagement in the coming years.

Breaking Down the Canada-India Uranium & Energy Agreement

The focus of India-Canada bilateral cooperation is on innovation, growth, energy transition, food and nutrition security, resilient supply chains, trusted digital ecosystems, and skills and talent mobility.

According to the leaders of both nations, as the complexity and uncertainty rise at the global level, “a strong, resilient, and forward-looking partnership between two vibrant democracies contributes meaningfully to mutual prosperity and to advancing shared global priorities.”

In line with this, Canadian firm Cameco (CCJ + 6.2%) has signed a $1.9 billion (C$2.6 billion) uranium supply deal with India, under which it will supply 22 million pounds of reactor fuel from its northern Saskatchewan operations, starting in 2027 and continuing through 2035.

“In civil nuclear energy, we have reached a landmark deal for long-term uranium supply. We will also work together on small modular reactors and advanced reactors.”

– PM Modi

Uranio (U) is a naturally occurring heavy metal that’s found in rocks, soil, and water. It is primarily used as fuel in nuclear power plants, with a small amount of uranium capable of releasing immense amounts of energy. Silvery-grey in appearance, uranium is weakly radioactive and is denser than lead.

The metal is mined globally, with Australia holding the world’s largest known uranium reserves, accounting for about 30% of the global total. But while Australia has the most reserves, Kazakhstan is the leading global producer, followed by Canada and Namibia.

Nuclear cooperation between Canada and India dates back to the 1950s, but progress has been lacking since India had its first nuclear test in 1974. Then in 2008, the South Asian nation signed a deal with the US to gain access to global reactor fuel and technology.

Soon after, India inked an agreement with the world’s second-largest uranium producer, which led to a uranium supply deal with Cameco that expired in 2020. Currently, they have uranium import contracts with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

At present, India operates 25 nuclear reactors, with eight more under construction, which provide it with only 8.8 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear power, accounting for less than 2% of its total capacity. But the country aims to increase its nuclear power capacity by more than 11x to 100 gigawatts (GW) by 2047 as part of its decarbonization strategy and long-term energy security.

However, the country can’t fulfil its uranium needs just from domestic resources. As a result, the agreement with Cameco has been formalized in the presence of Carney and Modi, alongside Scott Moe, premier of the Canadian province of Saskatchewan, and Cameco CEO Tim Gitzel.

While Cameco had supplied uranium to India before, under a five-year contract, this one is among the largest longer-term arrangements since nuclear cooperation recommenced following the 2008 civil nuclear agreement.

In addition to uranium, India and Canada have agreed to cooperate on crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), refined petroleum products, solar, hydrogen, potash, and critical minerals to bolster supply chain resilience.

The Indian PM said Canada’s decision to join the Global Biofuel Alliance and the International Solar Alliance would further align the two nations’ clean energy goals. Meanwhile, PM Carney stated:

“We’re expanding collaboration across wind, solar and hydrogen. Canada plans to double its grid by 2050, and India can be a major partner in that expansion.”

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What India and Canada Gain From the Energy Deal

Energy is clearly the biggest point of discussion between the two countries, and for a good reason. While India needs affordable and reliable energy to fuel its growth, Canada intends to become an energy superpower.

India is one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies. But while its energy demand continues to rise, driven by rapid urbanization, an expanding middle class, and an industrialization push, the South Asian country has relatively few natural resources of its own to satisfy the needs of its 1.4 billion population.

Del mundo 3rd largest energy consumer and one of the fastest-growing electricity markets is heavily reliant on imports for its primary energy. At the same time, it is pursuing major nuclear expansion and rapid deployment of solar & wind to achieve 500+ GW of non-fossil power capacity by 2030.

What India needs is reliable suppliers, diversified energy partners, and stable long-term contracts, and Canada, with its massive reserves and NATO and G7 alignment, can offer that.

In fact, Canada, which has a population of sobre 40 millón, exports the majority of its energy production. So, while India is energy-hungry and resource-constrained, Canada is the exact opposite: resource-rich yet domestically demand-constrained. This asymmetry makes them economically complementary.

“On energy, there is an appetite which even Canada cannot fulfill, and we are willing to buy whatever Canada is offering on crude, on LPG, on LNG.”

– India’s high commissioner to Canada, Dinesh Patnaik, said in an interview

Additionally, fostering the trading relationship will help the two start fresh, Patnaik said. He added:

“It’s going to all come together, so energy can redefine our relationship completely. Up until now, what we have been doing is just a drop in the bucket.”

Saskatchewan Premier Moe shares a similar view, advocating for deepening relations with India, which wants to buy all the energy and agricultural products it can from his province. The region boasts all of Canada’s active potash mines and huge proven high-grade uranium deposits, which can help India ensure food security and achieve clean energy ambitions.

“We are willing to take whatever,” said the high commissioner. He also said that Indian companies are open to owning stakes in Canadian uranium mines and to buying Canada’s nuclear technology. “Nuclear is a huge field in which we want to work together,” Patnaik stated.

That’s because India doesn’t want to be dependent on just a handful of energy suppliers, he noted.

India has been buying much of its oil from Russia, which Trump has been pressuring the country to stop doing by imposing a 25% tariff on top of “reciprocal” tariffs on Indian products. After Modi agreed to diversify the portfolio, the US lifted the tariff earlier this month, and in exchange for this relief, India agreed to buy US and Venezuelan oil produced under a US license.

While Russia presents significant geopolitical risks to India, the Middle East supply is vulnerable to conflict, and China remains its strategic rival.

“Given what’s happened geopolitically across the globe, we want to diversify our supply base,” said Patnaik. “The amount we need and the amount the world needs, no single country will be able to supply all of that.”

However, the problem is that much of Canadian oil goes to one customer: the US, which accounted for about 93% total crude oil exports en el 2024.

This heavy reliance on the US has become riskier for Canada amidst ever-increasing amenazas arancelarias and geopolitical uncertainty. So, after Trump imposed a 35% tariff on most Canadian exports to the US, Carney said that he wants to strengthen Ottawa’s relationship with countries other than the US.

“Some 98 per cent of our energy is going to the United States, and that’s uncertain right now in terms of continuity — branching out is the way to go,” said Sen. Peter Boehm, the Chair of the Senate Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Trade. “India needs a lot of energy. There’s a lot — a lot — of potential there.”

India’s large market offers a prime opportunity for Canada’s natural gas, petroleum, and other exports.

For instance, the country is looking to increase the share of gas in its energy mix to 15% by 2030 from the current 6.2%. It is already the world’s fourth-largest buyer of LNG, and Canada, with its seven LNG export projects in development, could become India’s leading choice.

Ottawa’s expanded export capacity, driven by new pipelines and growing infrastructure, makes it well-positioned to serve Indo-Pacific markets and become a key part of India’s diversification portfolio.

“We would be your biggest client — I think that is possible in the near future,” Patnaik said.

Beyond fuels, critical minerals represent yet another strategic opportunity for both nations. India needs lithium, nickel, and cobalt for clean energy technologies, semiconductors, electric vehicles, and defence supply chains, but it relies on China-dominated networks. A deal with Canada would help reduce this dependence, aligning India’s industrial ambitions with Canada’s mineral wealth.

Además de ser un major supplier of lithium, nickel, graphite, and rare-earth elements crucial for energy technologies, IEA noted that Canada has a stable policy framework and is “investing throughout the value chain, from midstream refining and processing to downstream manufacturing sectors.”

By signing a pact with India, Canada will be able to build integrated value chains through technology collaboration and processing partnerships.

In addition to all of this, the two nations have launched a new Canada-India Talent and Innovation Strategy. This includes 13 new university partnerships spanning digital agriculture, hydrogen research, health sciences, and AI.

Investing in the Canada-India Energy Deal

Several sectors stand out as beneficiaries of the Canada-India trade deal: oil, natural gas, potash, and critical minerals. But one company is the clear frontrunner: Cameco. It has secured an eight-year supply agreement, positioning it well to capitalize on the strengthened trade relationship.

Cameco Corp. provides uranium fuel for baseload electricity generation worldwide. The company primarily operates through three key segments. One is uranium, which involves mining, milling, and the sale of uranium concentrate. The second one is fuel services, which deals with the refining and conversion of uranium concentrate and also sells these services.

The third segment is Westinghouse, which covers earnings from equity-accounted investment. Westinghouse is a manufacturer of nuclear reactor technology equipment that serves commercial utilities and government agencies.

Given the world’s focus on clean energy, Cameco stocks have been enjoying a massive rally over the last six years.

In early 2020, CCJ shares were trading around $6, and in the summer of 2024, they surpassed the $50 mark. While the following year was volatile for CCJ, it soon gained strength and saw its share price appreciate from sub-$40 in April 2025 to a new all-time high (ATH) above $135 in January 2026.

As of writing, CCJ is trading at $119, up 29.4% YTD and 168.85% over the past year, putting its market cap at $51.56 billion. Cameco has an EPS (TTM) of 0.99 and a P/E (TTM) of 120.04. It pays a dividend yield of 0.15%.

Last month, Cameco reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, showing increases of $60 million and $335 million in adjusted net earnings, respectively.

Adjusted EBITDA for the full year, meanwhile, increased by about $398 million from the prior year to $1.9 billion, thanks to the uranium segment enjoying an improving price environment and an increase in Westinghouse’s revenue due to the Dukovany construction project.

“Across the nuclear industry, 2025 marked another year of accelerating global momentum,” said CEO Gitzel, while noting renewed commitments to nuclear energy from utilities, industrial energy users, and governments.

The company has committed about 230 million pounds of uranium under long‑term contracts.

“Looking forward, we believe we will continue to see a durable trend of growth across the nuclear fuel cycle supported by electrification, energy security and decarbonization priorities, and the increasing recognition that nuclear must play a central role in addressing the world’s long‑term energy challenges.”

– Gitzel

Cameco had $1.2 billion in cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments, with $1 billion in total debt, at the end of last year.

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Conclusión

So, the meeting between Carney and Modi signals improved relations and a structural shift in how both nations are positioning themselves in a world increasingly shaped by tariffs, volatile politics, rivalry, and fragile supply chains.

More importantly, this partnership is highly complementary. While India faces constraints and needs diversification, Canada is facing a surplus and needs new markets. This could make for a perfect provider/consumer relationship, provided the necessary infrastructure, such as pipelines, export terminals, shipping corridors, and refining and processing partnerships, can be developed at scale to support it.

With energy security increasingly equating to national security, the Canada-India partnership has the potential to become one of the most consequential energy alliances of the coming decades, powering not just economic growth but also a more resilient global energy system.