L’illusione dell’oro da $5.000: Cosa succede se il racconto del “porto sicuro” muore?

Perché il valore dell’oro è guidato dalla percezione di mercato

Since the dawn of civilization, gold has been considered a highly valuable commodity, first used in religious artifacts in Ancient Egypt and other early civilizations, and later as a currency.

Il motivo di questo utilizzo è che, nei tempi pre‑moderni, la rarità dell’oro e i costi della sua estrazione lo rendevano intrinsecamente prezioso e una metrica comune facile da adottare per sostituire il baratto inefficiente. Poiché solo una piccola quantità di oro poteva essere creata mediante estrazione, ciò creava anche un’offerta di moneta relativamente stabile, con inflazione che si verificava solo quando re e imperatori svalutavano la moneta con metalli meno pregiati.

Il fatto che il metallo giallo sia ultra‑resistente alla corrosione e facilmente ricucito in unità più piccole o più grandi era un ulteriore vantaggio, rendendolo più flessibile di altri materiali preziosi come la seta o il legno pregiato, per esempio. Per le stesse ragioni, l’argento è stato tradizionalmente usato nella coniazione di monete di alto valore.

Tuttavia, dal Rinascimento ai tempi moderni, il denaro ha iniziato a significare qualcosa di diverso rispetto alle monete d’oro e d’argento. Sistemi economici più complessi, l’emergere di banche stabili e internazionali, l’uso regolare del debito e governi centralizzati hanno progressivamente introdotto l’idea di valute il cui valore non deriva dalle loro proprietà fisiche, ma dalla legge, dalla giurisdizione e dalla stabilità economica.

Di conseguenza, l’argento e poi l’oro hanno progressivamente perso il loro posto al centro del sistema economico mondiale, per essere sostituiti dalle valute “fiat”, il cui valore è legato al sostegno di uno stato nazione e del suo governo.

Oggi esistono anche alternative non fisiche ma con offerta limitata, come le criptovalute, la prima delle quali è il Bitcoin.

Lately, gold has risen in price strongly, which has led many gold supporters to claim it is gaining back its role as a currency. But at the same time, this illustrates the profound vulnerability of gold’s value: it is only valuable because people think it is, with few real-world applications for the metal, despite its remarkable electrical and corrosion properties.

Come vengono realmente determinati i prezzi dell’oro

Spiegazione della domanda industriale limitata dell’oro

When we think about gold, we think of ancient artifacts from the tombs of kings of old, jewelry, or even the gold bars held by central banks around the world. And this perception is correct.

La maggior parte dell’oro nel mondo è usata come “riserva di valore”, con poco utilizzo pratico del metallo giallo. Attualmente, l’oro appena estratto è principalmente impiegato in applicazioni che lo preservano per usi futuri, sia esso gioielleria (40‑50%), investimento privato (20%) o acquisti da parte delle banche centrali (10‑15%).

Di conseguenza, la domanda industriale, che è quella che realmente consuma l’oro prodotto, rappresenta appena il 7‑10% del totale dell’oro prodotto annualmente.

Fonte: Bullion Vault

Questo solleva la questione su cosa abbia guidato il recente massiccio aumento dei prezzi dell’oro, rendendolo uno degli asset con le migliori performance nel 2025 e all’inizio del 2026. Se nessuno lo “usa” realmente, dove finisce l’oro appena estratto, fino a 3.500‑3.600 tonnellate all’anno?

Fonte: GoldPrice

Banche centrali e oro

It seems a key answer has been a regime shift after the financial crisis in 2008, where central banks stopped being a net seller of gold, providing the market with abundant supply from their massive reserves (see more on that topic below). Instead, central banks became net buyers of gold, purchasing 500-1,000 tons every year, with non-Western central banks largely driving the shift.

Questo numero potrebbe anche essere una sottostima massiccia, poiché i governi di nazioni sanzionate come Venezuela, Iran o Russia, così come la Cina, potrebbero aver acquistato oro tramite canali indiretti, non riportati come acquisti delle banche centrali.

Alcune speculazioni spingono la stima fino a 30.000 tonnellate di oro accumulate dalla Cina attraverso la produzione domestica e le importazioni tramite banche commerciali, il che sarebbe >10 volte più grande delle riserve ufficialmente dichiarate di 2.300 tonnellate.

Fonte: Bullion Vault

This, however, brings a difficult question for gold bulls. Is the price of gold today entirely dependent on the opinion of a handful of countries that gold is still relevant as money? And if so, what would happen if they change their minds?

Rischi per il valore dell’oro

Il problema delle scorte

What initially made gold so valuable as coinage, its durability, could also become its main weakness in modern times. Because it is still highly valuable and never corrodes, most of the gold mined in the past is still usable today.

L’unica ragione per cui l’oro non è ampiamente accessibile e non ha prezzi più bassi è che la maggior parte è bloccata nelle caveau delle banche centrali, istituzioni finanziarie e investitori facoltosi, e sotto forma di gioielli.

In totale, si stima che esistano 212.000 tonnellate di “offerta sopra terra”, ovvero oro già estratto e utilizzabile oggi, un valore enormemente superiore alle 3.500 tonnellate prodotte annualmente dall’industria mineraria dell’oro. In effetti, c’è più oro già estratto di quanto ne resti da trovare sotto terra.

Fonte: Visual Capitalist

So if any of this stockpile started to be sold, this could create a flow of fresh gold supply as large or larger than the current mining production. Due to the massive scale of the stockpile, such a situation could go on for decades before the inventory starts to wear thin.

Cosa dice la storia dell’argento sul futuro dell’oro

Silver provides an interesting comparison to gold as it used to be a monetary metal, forming the base of coinage for ancient civilizations in Greece, China, and the early Islamic Caliphates.

However, it stopped being used seriously as a monetary metal as soon as the 19^th century, replaced by the gold standard, and was last present in some form in US coins more than 50 years ago, with the final removal of silver from coins in 1971.

As a result, silver prices long stagnated and stubbornly refused to react as a monetary metal, fluctuating to the rhythm of geopolitical or economic crises.

Instead, silver is currently used half as a luxury product for jewelry, and half as an industrial commodity for its remarkable properties in terms of antibacterial activity, electrical conductivity, resistance to corrosion, light reflectivity, etc.

This does not mean that silver cannot be a good investment, and it actually exploded in value in 2026 (before falling back somewhat). But the key driver of this price surge was surging industrial demand, causing depleting inventory, mostly from the enormous ramp-up of solar panel production.

So if silver is an example, a demonetized gold could remain stagnant for decades, and only see a price surge in case of short supply and high industrial demand. A situation that could take decades to materialize, considering that gold above‑ground inventories are very large.

And like silver, gold has very valuable physical properties that make it a very useful industrial metal.

Potrebbe l’oro diventare un metallo industriale?

In such a scenario, the determining factor of gold prices would not be its perceived value as a monetary metal, but simply supply and demand.

Even in the scenario of total demonetization, it is likely that international central banks will not look to sell their gold at a loss, so a slow and steady stream to avoid breaking the market would be more likely than price‑insensitive sales.

So, as with other industrial metals, the price of gold would be determined by the balance between supply and demand.

On the demand side, it is likely that the aesthetic and history of gold will maintain a relatively high demand for jewelry, in the same way as diamonds, which is still somewhat popular even if it can be mass‑manufactured in labs.

But it is in industrial applications where a cheaper demonetized gold could thrive:

• Elettronica, grazie all’alta conduttività elettrica e alla resistenza all’ossidazione.
• Aerospazio, per la quasi perfetta riflettività del radiazione infrarossa e l’alta conduttività termica.
• Medicina: con nanoparticelle d’oro ad alta biocompatibilità già usate in trattamenti oncologici, diagnostica e odontoiatria.
• Energia pulita: l’oro è un potente catalizzatore per celle a combustibile, produzione di idrogeno, ecc., e un oro demonetizzato sarebbe più economico del platino e del palladio più rari.

On the supply side, the key metrics would be All‑In Sustaining Cost (AISC), a metric used by gold miners to reflect the total cost of mining, including capital expenditure, permitting, environmental regulations, etc.

AISC has been rising in the past few years, driven by energy costs and depletion of the most concentrated gold ore deposits.

Fonte: World Gold Council

Standing around $1,400‑$1,500 per ounce of gold, the current AISC will probably rise further in the case of durable higher oil prices, making an AISC of $2,000/ounce possible. This would, however, still fall short of the recent >$5,000/ounce gold prices, reflecting the gap between current gold value and gold’s potential price if it loses its position as a monetary reserve.

L’oro è sopravvalutato come porto sicuro?

Historically, gold has been a “safe haven” for capital during economic crises, wars, and other troubled times. And certainly, some investors and several national central banks are still seeing it this way.

However, for the first time in history, the alternative is not just between not‑so‑reliable fiat currency of over‑indebted governments and gold, but also the option of Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency designed to replicate the best core features of gold on steroids: hard cap to supply, fungibility, safety, etc. Meanwhile, Bitcoin as “digital gold” is also adding unprecedented ease of transaction, a permanent ledger, and possible additional features thanks to a flexible code.

The jury is still out for the future of Bitcoin and gold as money, as the trust in many fiat currencies is eroding.

It is possible that both will coexist, as gold still has appeal to millions of investors who use Gold IRA, gold brokers, or direct purchase of physical gold. In that case, it is yet to be seen how much the current bull run in gold has priced in this role for the yellow metal.

Or it is possible that in the long run, gold will join silver in the category of rare metals which are very useful for high‑tech applications, but not playing a significant role in the monetary system, with cryptocurrency like Bitcoin and eventually other algorithmic solutions playing the role that gold used to assume in the pre‑modern ages.

So, except if they have a very strong opinion, most investors, dubious of the path of fiat currency, can invest in both crypto and gold, capitalizing on the fact that at least one of them, if not both, will be the beneficiary of future debt crises.

Investire nella produzione industriale di oro

Newmont

If gold turns into an industrial metal, the larger, more diversified, and lowest-cost producers will still be profitable, while smaller, more marginal gold deposits might struggle to make money.

Newmont is the world’s largest gold miner by production, now far ahead of its closest competitors, Barrick Gold (ABX.TO ), since the acquisition of NewCrest in 2023 for $16.8B. This was following another acquisition of GoldCorp for $10B in 2019.

The company is mostly producing from mines in the Americas and Australia, and is also a producer of copper, a metal in increasingly high demand for electrification and tech applications. It has massive reserves underground, that can be progressively mined, quicker or slower depending on the current price of gold.

Fonte: Newmont

With an AISC fluctuating around $1,600 per ounce of gold (including copper sales), Newmont would stay highly profitable with strong margins even if the gold price were to collapse and be divided by half.

The company is also a leader in sustainable mining, ranked the most transparent company in the entirety of the S&P500 by Bloomberg, and was ranked #2 out of 100 apparel and extractive companies in the 2023 Corporate Human Rights Benchmark.

So, whether it is to bet on rising gold prices from investors looking for a haven, or to count on a stable provider of a very useful industrial metal for high‑tech applications, Newmont can provide a relatively safe bet on profitable gold production, independent of the potentially wild swing in public sentiment around the yellow metal.

(You can read more about Newmont in our dedicated investment report on the company.)

Ultime notizie e sviluppi sul titolo Newmont (NEM)