부채, DOGE, 그리고 딜레마: 머스크와 트럼프가 미국의 1조 달러 이자 문제를 해결할 수 있을까?

미국 부채와 증가하는 우려

In the past few years, the level of debt accrued by the US government has been extensively discussed in the financial press, mostly due to skyrocketing interest payments.

Source: Federal Reserve Of St Louis

미국 부채에 대한 이자 지급액은 매년 1조 달러를 넘어섰으며, 이미 거대한 국방 예산(전 세계 군사 지출의 40%)보다도 높아지고 있습니다.

다가오는 트럼프 행정부가 엘론 머스크를 임명해 새로 설립될 DOGE(Department of Government Efficiency)를 통해 “문제 해결”을 시도할 것으로 보이면서 이 문제는 더욱 중요해졌습니다.

“A significant % of people don’t even know that there is such a thing as a national debt!

Those that do often don’t know how big it is or that our interest payments now exceed what we spend on our military. Only a small % understand that government overspending causes inflation.”

Elon Musk

예측은 늘 있었고 연기돼 왔지만, 세계 최대 경제이자 국제 준비 통화인 미국에서 부채 위기가 발생한다면 파괴적일 수 있으며, 비트코인과 금 같은 자산에도 광범위한 파장을 일으킬 수 있습니다.

따라서 투자자들은 이 위험을 제대로 평가하고 투자 전략에서 어떻게 관리할지 이해하는 것이 중요합니다.

임박한 위기?

With the US stock market, especially AI and tech stocks, reaching all-time highs, it is easy to feel that the US economic situation is solid. However, there are a few problems born during the pandemic that are still lingering.

인플레이션

One problem is the persistence of inflation, which remains above 2.5%.

Source: Trading Economics

이는 문제이며, 이자율을 낮추려는 시도가 미국 부채를 보다 관리 가능하게 만들 수 있지만, 4~6% (또는 그 이상) 인플레이션을 다시 촉발할 수 있습니다.

 “If we don’t tackle the national debt, all tax revenue will go to paying interest and there will be nothing left for anything else.”

If the issue isn’t addressed the dollar will be worth nothing.”

Elon Musk

이는 순수 이론적 문제가 아니라, 향후 4년 동안 인플레이션을 부추길 수 있는 여러 외부 요인이 존재하기 때문입니다:

• 중국, 멕시코, 캐나다 등으로부터의 수입 관세.
• 이민 제한 및 불법 이민자 추방으로 인한 노동력 부족.
• 이란 및/또는 러시아와의 갈등 격화, 우라늄 연료 부족 등 외부 에너지 충격.

인플레이션이 높은 수준을 유지한다면, 이자율도 상승하여 미국 이자 부채 지급액이 1조 달러를 넘어서는 상황이 지속됩니다.

취약해진 은행 시스템

While there was no systematic failure like in 2008, there have been a few close calls in the last 2 years. First, there was the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank and a few others in Spring 2023, the third-largest bank failure in United States history. Then, there was a mini stock market crash in 2024년 8월 due to the weakening of the Japanese Yen.

이러한 사건들이 큰 위기를 만들지는 않았지만, 중앙은행들의 신속한 개입 덕분에 위기가 확대되지 않았으며, 이는 전 세계 금융 시스템에 잠재적인 숨은 문제와 불안정성이 존재함을 시사합니다.

A big factor behind these sudden weaknesses is massive unrealized losses hidden in the bank balance sheets. Actually, these losses are much larger than any losses during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

Source: Wolf Street

Behind these losses are 2 main contributing factors:

• The decline in commercial property values, especially office spaces, with the explosion of Work-From-Home (WFH) during and after the pandemic.
• Decline in government bonds values, due to raising interest rates after decades of declining interest rates.

채권과 부동산이 각각 전체 주식 시장보다 3배 이상의 자산 가치를 대표한다는 점을 고려하면, 이 부문에서 발생하는 문제는 빠르게 전 세계적인 문제로 확대될 수 있습니다.

Source: MicroStrategy

DOGE 효과?

Historically, successive US administrations, both Democrats and Republicans, failed to address the mounting debt problem: the last budget surplus was in 2001.

따라서 트럼프 행정부가 이전과 다를 것이라는 기대는 크게 회의적이며, 그의 첫 4년 대통령 재임 기간 동안 이 문제에 대해 별다른 조치를 취하지 않았습니다.

Source: DOGE

Still, one possibility is a massive wave of shrinking the federal government under the tutelage of Elon Musk’s DOGE audits:

“DOGE will provide advice and guidance from outside of Government, and will partner with the White House and Office of Management & Budget to drive large scale structural reform, and create an entrepreneurial approach to Government never seen before.”

Donald Trump

And of course, the radical firing of 80% of Twitter’s workforce to turn it into X.com was indeed spectacular.

The reforms suggested by DOGE could include:

• Reducing $100B in improper payments in the Medicare and Medicaid programs.
• Removal of 90% of office spaces in Washington DC.
• Forcing the Pentagon to “find” a missing $824B.
• Simplifying radically the 16 million words tax code.

가능한 행동 방침?

개혁은 어렵다

While radical, these propositions are nothing new and have been discussed by libertarian reformers for decades.

The real challenge is whether any of these will get approved by Congress and actually put into law and enforced.

This will likely be opposed very strongly by a wide array of influential forces, from federal employees and lobbyists, to Democrat & Republican governors and large corporations (including tech companies & defense contractors).

따라서 부채가 쉽게 해소되지 않을 것이며, 인플레이션도 당분간 진정되지 않을 가능성이 높습니다.

그다지 좋지도, 나쁘지도 않다

At the same time, doomsday predictions have proven consistently wrong for decades and mostly enriched their writers and impoverished investors listening.

A more likely scenario is one of only partial reforms, that help but do not solve the problem, until a more serious crisis unfolds over many years, forcing more radical actions.

This is how the 1970s stagflation ended, with the Fed suddenly raising interest rates, a policy remembered as the “Volcker Shock”, named after the Fed chairman at the time, Paul Volcker.

That month, the Fed’s interest rate was set at 13.7 percent; by April, it had spiked a full 4 points to 17.6 percent. It would near 20 percent at times in 1981.

When Volcker left office in 1987년 8월, inflation was down to 3.4 percent from its peak of 9.8 percent in 1981

Dylan Matthews on Vox

So overall, we can reasonably consider the possibility that inflation could bounce back higher, and interest rates to rise much higher to finally put inflation under control.

Source: Trading Economics

인플레이션에 대한 보호책

In any case, investors might want to become a little cautious when the largest economy in the world is considering radical policies and 1-2 trillion-dollar-worth of budget cuts.

한편으로는 정치적·사회적 불안정을 초래할 수 있는 효과가 있을 것입니다.

다른 한편으로는 실패한 개혁 및/또는 외부 충격이 1970년대 스태그플레이션과 유사한 경제·인플레이션 위기를 초래할 수 있습니다.

Source: MarketWatch

그리고 물론, 쿠바 미사일 위기 당시와 마찬가지로 국제 긴장이 고조된 상황도 도움이 되지 않습니다.

금: “야만적인 유물”

Historically, the refuge for investors in times of debt, currency, and inflation crises was physical gold. As a “neutral” reserve currency, it was seen as a form of “cash” that was independent of policy failures by individual countries.

그리고 최근 금은 모든 통화에서 사상 최고치를 기록하며 위기에 대한 압력 밸브 역할을 되찾는 등 연속적인 상승세를 보이고 있습니다.

Source: Gold Price

이는 미국뿐 아니라 에너지, 지정학, 경제와 관련된 위험에 대한 전 세계적인 인식이 반영된 결과이며, 아시아 구매자들이 금 가격에 큰 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

“Nearly three-quarters of consumer demand for gold over the last ten years has come from emerging markets.”

Mr. John Reade, Chief Market Strategist, World Gold Council.

Another major driver has been central banks, with here too, Asian countries at the forefront.

The largest one has been China, aggressively trying to spend its surplus dollars from trade into gold and infrastructure spending through the Belt and Road Initiative.

“According to the World Gold Council (WGC), central banks led by China purchased 1,037 tonnes (t) (metric tons) of gold in 2023, with the PBoC buying more gold than all other central banks combined. This buying intensity continued well into 2024.”

International Banker

디지털 금

What made gold (and to some extent silver) a good neutral reserve currency were a few key features:

• Rare and hard to produce in any significant quantities without massive costs.
• Ultra-durable, contrary to most other metals.
• Easy to split into smaller units for trade and storage.

Since the dawn of civilization, no other alternative managed to fit the bill as well as gold, leaving it uncontested as the safe asset to own in times of crisis, from Ancient Egypt to the Modern Era.

This was until the emergence of cryptocurrency, especially Bitcoin.

Similarly to gold, Bitcoin prices have been skyrocketing this year.

Source: Google Finance

Bitcoin proponents consider that it has all the advantages of gold, and some extras:

• Not only is it rare, but in the long run, the total amount of Bitcoin will never go above the maximum total quantity.
• Blockchain technology makes Bitcoin “durable”, but also more resistant to tampering due to the immutability of the ledger.
• Its digital nature makes it easier for transactions, while also being easy to divide infinitely, something gold cannot easily pass a minimum of a few grams.

증가하는 정당성

For many years, what Bitcoin was missing was to be embraced by “big money”: large financial institutions (banks, insurance, pension funds, etc.), billionaires, and central banks.

This has progressively changed:

• Bitcoin Increasingly Used in Treasury Reserves Outside of Digital Asset Sector (Tesla, Square, Meitu, etc.).
• Bitcoin ETFs offer a new way to get exposure to the cryptocurrency, with institutional investors now owning 20% of US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs.
• Trump is apparently considering a “Bitcoin national stockpile” after making a pledge to create one during his campaign in 2024년 7월.

Even with the recent price rises, Bitcoin is still standing below 10% of the asset value of global gold reserves, with both much smaller than other asset classes.

Source: MicroStrategy

So there is a reasonable case that if Bitcoin becomes a major store of value, it could not only rise due to inflation and a debt crisis, making money flow in defensive assets, but also grow quicker than gold, which was alone in that role historically.

결론

Nothing is certain when it comes to macroeconomics. But so far, the mix of persistent inflation and high US debt levels seems like a recipe for a redo of the 1970s stagflation.

The reaction of market participants to this looming risk is already visible in the strong rise in prices of both gold and Bitcoin.

Which of the two will ultimately outperform the other and prove the best protection against inflation is still debated. Gold has a solid historical track record against debt crises, while Bitcoin has done better returns than gold in the few years it has existed.

In any case, there is a place in most portfolios for inflation hedges and a balanced approach between risk-taking with equities and more defensive assets.