에너지
QuantumScape (QS): 고체 전지 경쟁을 선도하는 기업
고체 전지가 다음 큰 도약이 되는 이유
With the electrification of all forms of transportation, starting with cars, and soon also encompassing trucks, ships, and possibly even planes, battery storage has become the key technology of the decade.
자동차를 시작으로 모든 형태의 교통수단이 전기화되고 곧 트럭, 선박, 심지어 항공기까지 확대됨에 따라 배터리 저장은 이번 십년의 핵심 기술이 되었습니다.
특히 고에너지 밀도가 요구되는 운송 분야에서 그렇고, 풍력 및 태양광과 같은 재생 에너지의 간헐성을 균형 잡는 데에도 중요할 수 있습니다.
산업은 지금까지 비용, 에너지 밀도, 자원 가용성 사이의 최적 균형을 이룬 리튬 이온 기술이 지배해 왔습니다.
하지만 리튬 이온 기술에는 채택을 제한할 수 있는 몇 가지 주요 문제가 있습니다:
- 금속 수지상 결정이 형성되어 치명적인 고장 및 배터리 화재를 일으킬 수 있습니다.
- 영하의 온도에서 성능이 저하되어 추운 기후 및 냉각 지역의 고정 저장에 부적합합니다.
- 에너지 밀도는 높지만 장거리 주행이나 트럭·버스와 같은 중장비 용도에는 아직 이상적이지 않습니다.
- 대부분의 배터리는 전력 손실 및 열화가 빠르게 진행되어 구매자에게 재판매 가치와 고가의 새 배터리 팩 교체 위험에 대한 불안을 야기합니다.
그리고 더 중요한 것은, 리튬 이온은 현재 매우 성숙한 설계이며, 2020년 이후 새로운 모델이 에너지 밀도 향상을 보여주는 경우가 거의 없습니다.
출처: QuantumScape
고체 전지라는 핵심 아이디어는 양극과 음극 사이의 액체 전해질을 고체 전해질로 교체하는 것입니다. 이는 액체 전해질과 그 보관 장치가 무게를 추가하기 때문에 배터리를 더 조밀하게 만들 뿐만 아니라, 기존 액체 전해질이 리튬 배터리 화재 위험의 주요 원인인 만큼 안전성도 향상시킵니다.
이론적으로는 쉬우나 고체 전지 프로토타입을 만드는 실제 작업은 더 복잡합니다. 우리는 이전에 전혀 음극이 없는 설계나 AI를 활용한 실험적 디자인 사례들을 다루었습니다.
하지만 이러한 실험적 설계를 안정적인 품질 수준과 합리적인 비용으로 대량 생산 단계에 올리는 것은 또 다른 도전 과제입니다.
서구의 한 기업이 마침내 고체 전지 대량 생산 라인에 도달한 것으로 보입니다: QuantumScape.
(QS )
QuantumScape 개요
Since its foundation in 2010, Californian QuantumScape has been a prominent startup in the solid-state battery space, remarkable by its move into the field early, and its independence from larger battery manufacturers also pursuing solid-state technology, like CATL (300750.SZ), Samsung, or LG Energy Solution (373220.KS).
Since then, the company formed in 2018 a joint venture with Volkswagen’s battery department PowerCo.
This started the slow process of developing a mass manufacturing method and extensive testing to check the design performance in a real EV.
출처: QuantumScape
In 2025년 9월, the company finally showcased its battery in a real commercial vehicle, a fully electric Ducati V21L race motorcycle.
The modified electric Ducati motorcycle powered by QS solid-state technology contains a first-of-its-kind battery system designed by specialists at VW Group-owned Audi specifically for QS solid-state battery cells and highlights the potential capabilities of the technology on the racetrack.
Ducati is part of the Volkswagen group, together with brands like Audi, Bentley, CUPRA, Lamborghini, Porsche, SEAT, and Škoda (you can read more about Volkswagen and its EV strategy to turn around the situation of the German automaker in our dedicated report on the group).
The focus on an electric motorbike is justified by the possibility it offers for a “low-volume but high-visibility demonstration”. As track motorcycles require both extremely high power capability and high energy density, they also demonstrate the technical capacity of the battery pack.
폭스바겐 파트너십
As an independent startup, instead of a giant automaker or well-established battery makers like its Chinese, Japanese, or Korean counterparts, QuantumScape’s risk has always been higher for investors.
The technology might be great, but the expertise and financial capacity to bring it to mass production were always an interrogation mark.
This is changing thanks to the repeating funding rounds and agreements signed with Volkswagen, the second-largest automotive manufacturing group in the world, which is so important to QuantumScape’s shareholders.
출처: QuantumScape
The German automotive company will integrate the solid-state batteries in its Scalable System Platform (SSP), designed to form a common EV platform for all the models of all the brands of the company.
Under 2024년 계약, PowerCo can manufacture up to 40 gigawatt-hours per year of electric vehicle batteries, with the option to expand to 80 GWh a year.
2025년에 PowerCo와의 관계가 더욱 가까워지고 있습니다, with 무소음 고체 전지가 Ducati 모터사이클에 사용되었습니다, and as PowerCo will be providing up to $131 million in new payments over the next two years upon the joint scale-up team achieving certain milestones.
“This expanded agreement is a clear signal of the growing strategic, technical, and financial alignment between the two companies.
It reflects our shared confidence in QSE-5 as a game-changing platform for the battery industry.”
In 2025, Volkswagen agreed to provide up to $131 million in new payments over the next two years upon the joint scale-up team achieving certain milestones.
기타 파트너십
The Volkswagen deals are not the only important deals for the company, as it has also undisclosed joint-development agreements with a major global automotive OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer), and agreements with the leading auto OEM by revenue, luxury and premium OEMs, as well as for stationary storage and consumer electronics.
QuantumScape is also ramping up partnerships to improve the mass production of its ceramic separator: on September 30, it announced Corning과의 협약(GLW ) to jointly develop ceramic separator manufacturing capabilities, and Murata Manufacturing과의 협력, with further progress in the collaboration, with both companies’ world-class ceramic manufacturing experts.
“Corning’s world-class capabilities in ceramics manufacturing make it an ideal addition to the QS technology ecosystem.
Together with our ecosystem partners, we’re building the foundation for scalable production of our high-performance solid-state batteries and furthering our mission to revolutionize energy storage.”
QuantumScape 기술
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| 배터리 유형 | 에너지 밀도 (Wh/L) | 에너지 밀도 (Wh/kg) | 충전 속도 | 열 안전성 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QuantumScape QSE-5 | 844 | 301 | 10–80% in 15 min | Nonflammable separator |
| Tesla 4680 (Li-ion) | 643 | 241 | 25–30 min | Requires thermal management |
| BYD LFP Blade | 350–400 | 160 | 30–40 min | High thermal stability |
QuantumScape의 무음극 설계가 중요한 이유
One unique feature of the QuantumScape battery, which at the time of the reveal was considered revolutionary, is that it uses an anode-free design.
Since then, other experimental designs have further explored this concept, but it is still a rather rare and very advanced type of solid-state battery.
출처: QuantumScape
The anode-free design significantly improves the durability of the battery by eliminating capacity loss at the anode interface. It also further increases the battery density by removing the space and volume normally used by the anode in a normal battery.
No anode also means no need for material to build it and the associated manufacturing costs.
This gives the company a solid cost advantage not only against traditional lithium-ion designs, but also other future solid-state battery manufacturers (for example Toyota (TM ), see our report on this other automaker).
출처: QuantumScape
Like all solid-state batteries, QuantumScape’s design is significantly superior to lithium-ion batteries in almost all metrics:
- 15분 만에 충전이 가능합니다 (45 °C에서 10‑80%).
- 액체 전해질을 대체하는 분리막은 불연성이고 연소되지 않습니다.
- 배터리 셀의 에너지 밀도는 844 Wh/L 및 301 Wh/kg입니다.
- 참고로 Tesla의 4680 셀은 643 Wh/L와 241 Wh/kg이며, BYD의 블레이드 셀은 약 375 Wh/L와 160 Wh/kg입니다.
So while there might be a lot of reasons to still value Tesla highly (see our report for more info), the quality of the company’s batteries might not be one of them soon.
It should also be noted that these performances are likely going to be improved further once QuantumScape starts producing larger cell formats, with energy density >1.000 Wh/L likely reachable.
출처: QuantumScape
These results were hard-won and achieved thanks to the company’s early move into the anode-free solid-state battery space.
To date, it seems that it is mostly only CATL’s honeycomb battery architecture that seems likely to achieve a similar reduction in dendrite formation, and maybe ION’s anode-free solid-state batteries.
“It took us over 10 years, over two million tests, and over $300 million to get to the level of performance we have demonstrated, so we believe this is a very hard problem and will be difficult for competitors to solve.”
고객 선호도와 일치
QuantumScape battery’s higher performance matches the general requirements for complete replacement of ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) vehicles with EVs:
- 최대 주행 거리 375마일(600km) 이상.
- 최대 15분 내 고속 충전, 전체 충전 시 충분한 주행 거리를 제공할 경우에만 널리 받아들여집니다.
- 배터리 수명 최소 12년/150,000마일(240,000km).
- 내연기관 차량과 동일한 비용.
- 극한의 고온·저온 모두에서 정상 작동.
- 화재 위험 없음.
Cobra 분리막: QuantumScape 제조 규모 확대
QuantumScape batteries will be mostly manufactured in a highly automated facility in San Jose, California. It will use a new type of heat treatment for its newer “Cobra” cell design.
This 25x more efficient heat treatment drastically reduces the physical space taken by the battery production, making it a key in unfolding mass production. It is also less energy intensive, reducing costs somewhat furthers and improving the process’s green profile.
Later iterations of Cobra are expected to improve this element of the production process even further in the future. The Cobra separator process entered baseline production in 2025년 6월 and should significantly improve throughput volumes.
QuantumScape (QS)의 향후 주요 이정표
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| 연도 | 이정표 | 시사점 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | PowerCo licensing deal for up to 40 GWh, expandable to 80 GWh of QSE-5-based cells. | 기술을 검증하고 폭스바겐과 함께 기가와트시 규모 생산으로 가는 명확한 경로를 창출합니다. |
| 2025 | Expanded PowerCo collaboration, up to $131M in milestone payments and 5 GWh of additional non-VW capacity. | QS 현금 흐름을 강화하고 폭스바겐 그룹 외 고객에게 문을 엽니다. |
| 2025 | Ducati V21L MotoE race motorcycle debuts with QuantumScape QSE-5 cells at IAA Mobility. | 무음극 고체 전지의 실제 차량 시연, 실험실을 넘어선 성능 입증. |
| 2025–2026 | Cobra separator process enters baseline production; Ducati field testing targeted for 2026. | 파일럿 제조에서 대량 프로토타입 및 트랙 테스트로 전환을 표시합니다. |
| 2027–2028+ | Potential timeline for first commercial EV deployments using QSE-5 cells, assuming successful scale-up. | QuantumScape가 수익 전 기술 스토리에서 의미 있는 배터리 공급자로 전환되는 핵심 전환점. |
While revealed publicly, the Ducati motorcycle will only undergo field testing in 2026, after equipment for higher production volume is installed in 2025.
Overall, 2026 is shaping up to be the transition moment for QuantumScape, when it moves from partnerships, agreements, and providing samples of its QSE-5 battery cells, toward the beginning of mass production and serious commercial deliveries.
However, before most Volkswagen bikes, and then cars, run on QuantumScape / PowerCo, a few years are still going to be required.
This is because, in the words of Elon Musk, back when Tesla was experiencing the difficulty of ramping up production above small batch volumes in 2017, “mass production is hell”.
결론
QuantumScape is a company that became very popular with investors in 2021, before experiencing a brutal stock price decline until 2025년 7월, where skepticism over the company’s ability to ever reach mass production dominated the conversation around it.
It has since rebounded strongly from its lowest point, but is still far from its 2021 levels. As the deepening partnership with Volkswagen illustrates, today’s QuantumScape has a radically different risk profile than in the past.
It is now entering the expansion phase of its production capacity, finally seeing its batteries enter a commercial product with the Ducati motorbike, and getting ready to expand into EVs of the world’s second-largest automaker.
In parallel, it is also becoming a key partner for OEM companies looking for a non-Asian alternative battery supply.
따라서 QuantumScape가 스타트업 단계에서 벗어나는 오랜 기다림이 곧 끝날 가능성이 높습니다. 최근 주가 급등은 시장도 이에 동의하고 있음을 보여주며, 기업 이미지 변화는 아직 진행 중입니다.
최신 QuantumScape (QS) 주식 뉴스 및 개발
