비트코인 ETF가 미지근한 시장 반응에 도착: 다음은?

수개월간의 추측과 투자자 광란 끝에 비트코인 현물 ETF가 마침내 월스트리트에 등장했습니다. 그렇다면 왜 비트코인은 아직 상승하지 않을까요? 

The US Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on 2024년 1월 10일, which empowers investors to buy into the cryptocurrency without having to navigate the crypto landscape’s exchanges, counterparty risk, or limited liquidity pools. 

While the news was greeted by many 낙관적인 암호화폐 애호가들, who shared memes at scale about how rich the long-awaited approval is set to make them, Bitcoin remained barely moved by the announcement. 

CoinGecko 데이터에 따르면, 뉴스 이후 비트코인의 24시간 가격은 자산 가치가 1% 미만 상승했으며, 이는 현물 비트코인 ETF의 등장이 암호화폐 산업에 획기적인 순간이 될 것이라는 분석가들의 전망과는 달리 나타났습니다. 

비트코인 ETF를 둘러싼 과대광고가 암호화폐에 비현실적인 기대를 불러일으켰을까요? SEC가 오랫동안 기다려온 ETF 승인이 향후 몇 개월에 어떤 영향을 미칠지 살펴보겠습니다: 

비트코인 ETF 가치 정량화

이 단계에서 비트코인 ETF의 등장이 전체 암호화폐 미래에 얼마나 중요한지 강조하는 것이 중요합니다. 

SEC의 승인은 암호화폐가 거래 경험이 거의 없는 투자자와 기관 모두에게 접근 가능해져 비트코인을 매매할 수 있게 됨을 의미합니다. 

The move also helps to bring greater levels of validation to a crypto landscape that’s struggled to earn the trust of investors owing to high-profile 거래소 붕괴, 보안 침해, and 암시장의 연관성. 

“This ETF has two main impacts: increased distribution in the US (a moderate impact, as there have been ETFs outside of the US for years) and increased credibility of crypto as an ‘asset class’ (a very high impact),” explained Kevin de Patoul, CEO of crypto liquidity provider Keyrock, in a CNBC interview.

“There is now a U.S. bitcoin spot ETF, and bitcoin is no longer considered shady or infamous. This significantly changes the perception for the mainstream public.” 

The numbers surrounding the value of a Bitcoin ETF are certainly cause for excitement too. With the world’s most famous cryptocurrency now available for financial institutions with a combined $100 trillion in assets under management, the prospective institutional inflows into an industry with a market capitalization of around $1.71 trillion at the time of writing could be transformative. 

“Projections range from substantial to record-breaking, with some envisioning flows in the multiple billions—an unprecedented feat in the ETF realm,” highlights Anthony Rousseau, head of brokerage solutions at trading platform TradeStation. 

Rousseau’s views were echoed by Standard Chartered analysts (STD.DE ) , who suggested that Bitcoin ETFs could draw $50 billion to $100 billion in 2024 alone as part of an inflow volume that could see the price of Bitcoin climb to $100,000.

Elsewhere, more conservative estimates claim that inflows could be far lower, reaching $55bn over five years. 

비트코인 가치의 다음은 무엇인가?

The hours that followed the SEC’s approval of the Bitcoin ETF were largely subdued, indicating that the market had already factored in the prospect of exchange-traded funds arriving as the expectation of approval grew amid a prosperous Q4 2023 for BTC. 

While there are lofty expectations among some analysts following the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, others believe that initial excitement will give way to a more gradual level of adoption. 

“It wouldn’t shock me if ETF users broadly who are now looking at getting some exposure to bitcoin within the ETF vehicle are going to go through their normal review process to make sure that they’re comfortable with the ETF, and that often takes time,” said David Mann, head of ETF products and capital markets at Franklin Templeton. 

In an interesting turn of events, the hours following the SEC’s approval of Bitcoin ETF applications saw more investor interest switch to leading altcoin Ethereum. 

Ethereum rallied over 13% in the space of 36 hours as investors speculated that the asset could be next to win ETF approval. 

Above all else, Ethereum’s surprising outperformance in the wake of the Bitcoin ETF announcement highlights the rapid pace and speculative nature of cryptocurrency markets. 

Given that the SEC approved Ethereum futures ETFs, there’s logic behind the speculation. With the commission failing to object to Ethereum being categorized as a commodity during this application process there’s potential for the arrival of an Ethereum spot ETF in the future. 

ETF가 비트코인에 영향을 미치지 못할 수 있을까?

It’s also worth addressing the elephant in the room. This unprecedented circumstance could have been factored into the price of Bitcoin over recent months and won’t influence the price of the cryptocurrency any further. 

“There are already several other ETFs tracking Bitcoin’s price, and the new ETF might struggle to attract enough investors to be successful,” highlights Maxim Manturov, head of investment research at Freedom Finance Europe. “The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, and the price of Bitcoin could significantly drop, even if a Bitcoin ETF is approved.”

“There is no guarantee that Bitcoin will reach its previous all-time high after the long-awaited ETF is approved. However, a Bitcoin ETF could be a key catalyst for Bitcoin’s price growth,” Manturov added.

For investors looking for a Bitcoin bull run in 2024, the answers could arrive in the coming weeks and months as we gain a perspective on the levels of inflows entering spot Bitcoin ETFs. In a landscape as volatile as crypto nothing can be assured, but there should be plenty of cautious optimism taken from such a transformative moment in the short lifespan of digital currencies.