Investieren 101
CPI entschlüsselt: Messung der Kaufkraft des Dollars
Understanding the Consumer Price Index and the role it plays in determining the Fed’s market decision will go a long way toward improving your forecasting abilities. The modern Consumer Price Index (CPI) was first published in 1913 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the same year the Federal Reserve was established. While earlier retail price indexes date back to 1884, the CPI as a national inflation benchmark began in the early 20th century. Today, it still plays a vital role. Here’s what you need to know.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation by tracking price changes across major consumer categories.
- The Federal Reserve relies on CPI data to guide interest rate decisions and monetary policy.
- Headline, Core, and Supercore CPI provide different inflation perspectives for investors.
- CPI data can signal shifts in market momentum, bond yields, and equity valuations.
Verbraucherpreisindex
The CPI was originally published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in 1884 as a way for economists to track retail food prices. At the time, this tracking was crucial to monitor the effects of tariffs. By 1913, the practice had become standard. It would continue to help economists monitor markets until 1919.
At this time, the CPI was broken into 32 city-specific indexes. These included many of the categories that you recognize today, such as food, clothing, and rent. In 1921, the entire index was merged to create a national CPI.
This method of tracking national costs was upgraded in WWII. It was then that weighted averages and some wartime exclusions were integrated. In 1953, the CPI-U standard was applied. This transformed the measurements into one standardized rate that covered 93% of the US population.
Track Price Changes
Today, the CPI remains one of the best ways for the Fed and investors to track price changes across a myriad of goods. This helpful tool examines the prices paid by consumers for essential items and compares them to previous years to ascertain inflationary effects.
Source – BLS
The CPI includes 8 major categories. These categories are weighted. They cover:
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| Kategorie | Ungef. Gewicht | Was es beinhaltet |
|---|---|---|
| Wohnen | ~33% | Miete, Eigentümeräquivalenzmiete, Nebenkosten |
| Transport | ~17% | Fahrzeuge, Benzin, Flugpreise |
| Lebensmittel & Getränke | ~13% | Lebensmittel, Restaurantbesuche |
| Gesundheitsversorgung | ~9% | Gesundheitsdienstleistungen, Verschreibungen |
| Bildung & Kommunikation | ~7% | Studiengebühren, Telefonservices |
| Freizeit | ~6% | Unterhaltung, Streaming |
| Bekleidung | ~3% | Kleidung und Schuhe |
| Andere Waren & Dienstleistungen | ~3% | Körperpflege, Tabak und sonstige Ausgaben |
How to Use It:
There are several ways you can use the CPI to improve your investment strategy. For one, you can use it to monitor inflation. Understanding inflation and the Fed’s next move can help you to position for potential market changes.
The Fed relies on this metric to make key inflationary adjustments. Some businesses also leverage this metric to determine their wages , alongside the social security department, which uses the metric to determine payout . Here is the equation used by the Fed to determine CPI:
CPI = (Cost
