Espaço
Lockheed Martin (LMT) Em Destaque: Um Líder em Defesa e Aeroespacial
Poder Aéreo no Centro do Poder Militar
Innovation and military technology have been deeply intertwined for decades, especially with the emergence of industrial warfare and the importance of advanced weapons. As a result, some of the most innovative companies in the world are also the largest military contractors.
Isso é particularmente verdadeiro nos EUA, onde empresas privadas são as principais fornecedoras de tecnologia para o Departamento de Defesa (DoD), ao contrário de outros países, incluindo aliados da OTAN, onde empresas nacionalizadas costumam ser os principais fornecedores de armas.
Da mesma forma, a tecnologia espacial e a exploração espacial são totalmente resultado de enormes investimentos da era da Guerra Fria na corrida espacial contra a União Soviética, que por sua vez se basearam na tecnologia de foguetes alemã desenvolvida na Segunda Guerra Mundial.
E no cerne de algumas das tecnologias mais avançadas que encontram aplicações tanto militares quanto civis, está uma empresa que tem empurrado os limites da engenharia: a Lockheed Martin.
(LMT )
História da Lockheed Martin
Lockheed Martin é o resultado da fusão de 1995 entre as empresas de defesa Lockheed Corporation e Martin Marietta. Essas corporações, por sua vez, foram fruto de fusões e aquisições anteriores, em uma tendência que consolidou a indústria de defesa dos EUA em um pequeno número de grandes conglomerados como Boeing (BA ), Raytheon (RTX ), General Dynamics (GD ), e Northrop Grumman (NOC ).
Fonte: Prdctnomics
A ascensão da empresa remonta à Segunda Guerra Mundial, quando foi um grande contribuinte para o esforço de guerra. Notavelmente, suas instalações altamente seguras “Skunk Works” foram fundamentais no desenvolvimento da maioria das aeronaves militares mais importantes dos EUA, como o P-38 Lightning em 1939, e mais tarde o SR-71 Blackbird, F-117 Nighthawk, F-22, e F-35.
Múltiplas Atividades
Aeronaves / Aeronáutica
Military aircraft were Lockheed’s original core business, and today, they are still its largest business line, accounting for around 40% of total revenues.
Isso inclui sistemas legados atualizados como os helicópteros Black Hawk ou o F-16, bem como equipamentos avançados como o F-35 além de aviões de radar voadores ou aeronaves logísticas como o C-5 Galaxy & C-130J Super Hercules.
Fonte: Lockheed Martin
Lockheed é instrumental no desenvolvimento das aeronaves como um todo e de muitos de seus subsistemas, desde radares até navegação, treinamento e simulação, centros de controle, etc.
Como o exército dos EUA e os exércitos da OTAN em geral são muito centrados na força aérea, este tem sido um segmento muito lucrativo para a Lockheed.
Mísseis e Controle de Fogo
This segment has obviously been growing from the massive ammunition consumption driven by the war in Ukraine, with a 25% growth in sales between 2023 & 2024.
Atualmente representa cerca de 17% das vendas totais.
- GMLRS: sistema de artilharia de precisão de mais de 70km.
- JAASM: cruzeiro ar-terra de longo alcance
- Javelin: mísseis anti-tanque lançados do ombro.
- ATACMS: artilharia de foguetes com alcance de 300km
- HIMARS: artilharia de mísseis de longo alcance.
Fonte: Lockheed Martin
No geral, este é um segmento que era visto como importante, mas secundário aos sistemas aéreos. O retorno da guerra de trincheiras e dos duelos de artilharia na guerra na Ucrânia mudou essa percepção.
Notavelmente, o HIMARS, que dispara os mísseis GMLRS & ATACMS, agora é uma compra obrigatória para muitos países da Europa Oriental, como a Polônia, bem como para o exército dos EUA e outros aliados da OTAN.
Neste ponto, parece que o principal problema da Lockheed Martin com esses sistemas não é tanto vendê-los, mas conseguir produzir o suficiente a tempo de atender à demanda.
Sistemas de Precisão e Defesa
As missiles, artillery, and drones become a more serious threat, the importance of defense systems against them grows accordingly.
Atualmente representa cerca de 24% das vendas totais.
Lockheed is here, too, a key supplier to the US & NATO armies and navies. For example, it produces:
- AEGIS: A principal defesa anti-mísseis e anti-aérea da Marinha dos EUA, que também existe em uma versão terrestre.
- THAAD: O Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) é especializado em interceptar mísseis de longo alcance, formando a base da capacidade dos EUA de defender contra mísseis balísticos convencionais e nucleares de longo alcance.
- Long Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR) & Satélites de Aviso e Rastreamento de Mísseis, fornecendo os dados de trajetória aos sistemas THAAD.
Este também é um segmento que foi um tanto negligenciado durante os anos da “guerra ao terror”, focado em contra-insurgência. O retorno de adversários de nível equivalente como Rússia e China está agora pressionando a OTAN a fortalecer este setor e aumentar radicalmente seus estoques de munição.
Espaço
This segment was initially mostly dedicated to military space applications, mostly surveillance and warning satellites. It has since expanded to many other civilian applications, like for example the GPS satellites (initially a purely military technology), NASA’s Orion spacecraft, and the climate observation satellites GOES-R series.
Fonte: Lockheed Martin
Atualmente representa cerca de 19% das vendas totais.
Lockheed pode reivindicar alguns números impressionantes para sua divisão espacial:
- 8 planetas visitados por espaçonaves da Lockheed Martin.
- Mais de 1.000.000 de horas de operações de espaçonaves planetárias.
- Mais de 300 cargas úteis de missão construídas para clientes.
À medida que os custos de lançamento diminuem extremamente rápido graças aos foguetes reutilizáveis pioneiros pela SpaceX, este é um segmento que pode experimentar rápido crescimento na próxima década, incluindo bases permanentes na Lua, mas também o potencial de energia solar espacial, outras infraestruturas espaciais ou até mesmo pousos humanos em Marte.
Finanças da Lockheed Martin
Lockheed had $67B in sales in 2023, and is on track to keep it up with a $17.1B in Q3 2024. The company has been rather consistently generating 10-12%+ of its sales in operating profit and free cash flow.
It distributed a dividend with a yield of around 2.4% in novembro de 2024, to which should be added a slightly higher amount in share repurchases.
As most of the company’s revenues are tied to very long-term purchases and service contracts with the US military, this has historically created a steady and profitable business.
This led the company to be a favorite among conservative investors, looking for slowly growing and stable cash flow and dividends.
Ultimately, an investment in Lockheed Martin is a bet in continuous military spending by the US government, as well as its allies.
This could however be an issue as well, as the US government debt has been skyrocketing in recent years, to maybe unsustainable levels. And the prices & performance of the weapon systems developed by Lockheed and other US defense giants are getting increasingly criticized.
A Polêmica do F-35
The flagship of Lockheed’s aircraft business, the F-35 fighter-bomber jet, has been suffering since day 1 from a very troubled development.
The program has suffered from severe technical shortcomings, massive cost overruns, and foi descrito por alguns como um “debacle”.
And even if more than 20 countries are partners of the US (com a Romênia sendo a mais recente adicionada em 2024)) on the program, some of the criticisms are justified. For example, even today, almost 20 years later, mal a metade dos F-35 está apta para missões a qualquer momento.
This did not however impact Lockheed’s profits, with sales of F-35 going well, as well as lucrative (overpriced?) maintenance contracts.
Funcionários do Pentágono concederam à Lockheed Martin até US$ 6,6 bilhões em 2021 para apoiar a frota F-35 por dois anos, até 2023. Esses contratos crescerão ainda mais à medida que mais aeronaves forem entregues.
Intervenção de Elon Musk?
This sort of underperformance by big defense firms has become a little too common recently. An even worse example is Boeing, which has recently falhou em produzir aviões civis seguros or cápsulas espaciais funcionais.
In the case of Boeing, this has been magnified by the comparative success of Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
This could become an issue for Lockheed Martin as well, as Musk is going to be appointed by Trump to lead the government efficiency department.
The F-35 might be a priority target for Musk if we believe a recent tweet comparing drone swarm to “some idiots still building manned fighter jets like the F-35”. In the same thread, Musk said trash the F-35 design and approved “100% that drones are the new level of warfare”.
Fonte: Elon Musk
Isso deve estar levantando algumas sobrancelhas vindo do homem essencialmente encarregado de cortar gastos governamentais com um machado. Portanto, no geral, os investidores podem precisar levar tais comentários em consideração antes de assumir que uma presidência republicana será boa para ações de defesa.
Futuro dos Sistemas Militares
It is relatively common knowledge that too many technology and weapons systems in the Western defense industry are “gold-plated”. This indicates not so much an inability to do the tasks, than a too-high price tag created by very complex solutions.
This stands in stark contrast to the philosophy behind previous generations of weapons, which had to be sufficiently rugged and simple to be mass-produced at a cheap cost, even if with fewer capabilities.
It is likely that the pendulum will swing back, at least for a little, toward that direction.
In the short term, this could be a problem for companies like Lockheed, which have invested a lot in very advanced systems.
But in the long run, the manufacturing facilities, the experience of its personnel, and the engineering capability of Lockheed are likely to be able to adapt to new procurement standards and new military requirements.
Inovações da Lockheed Martin
While the (too?) complex system of the F-35 has underperformed, Lockheed is nevertheless are the forefront of innovation in space and military technology. With great power competition eating up between the West and Eurasian powers, this is likely to pay off for the company’s many programs in development.
Armas Hipersônicas
A key to maintaining deterrence, especially nuclear deterrence, is maintaining the MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) balance of power.
Hypersonic weapons are able to fly at Mach 10 or more (12,000km/h or 7,600 miles/hours), making them virtually impossible to intercept.
It seems that currently, the Russian and Chinese military are one step ahead of the US in this field. This has created a massive sense of urgency, with Lockheed tasked to lead the catch-up through a $756M award to develop the Long Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW). The company is also working on the Hypersonic Air-Launched Offensive Anti-Surface Warfare (HALO), Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW), and the Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS).
Fonte: Lockheed Martin
This is a program likely to pay off beyond the weapons themselves, as it requires the development of new materials resistant to extreme heat and advanced guidance and communication systems. These technologies and associated IPs are likely to become extremely valuable IPs in the future, including for space and civilian applications.
Ciberdefesa, Comando Integrado e IA
Electronic data are becoming a very important part of military operations, not only including target data but also requiring very sturdy real-time communications, instant assessment of threats, automatic defenses, etc.
This is before taking drones and autonomous weapons into account (see below).
For example, Lockheed has its own “AI factory” to churn out digital and AI solutions for the military, including unified 5G networks. It also offers cyberdefense and cyberoffense solutions, a sector increasingly seen as a new military “domain”, alongside land, sea, air, and space.
https:://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LClUmpDFiRA
Drones e Armas Autônomas
The war in Ukraine has demonstrated the quickly growing importance of drones and unmanned systems, especially in the air.
This could completely redefine the role of manned aircraft, turning them more into a central command platform for drones than a lone attack platform. This is the key element behind the concept of “crewed-uncrewed teaming”, optimizing the performance of both man and unmanned systems.
Fonte: Lockheed Martin
This concept could also be the salvation of the F-35, as it has been designed from inception to be a command platform with very high computing capacity.
Lockheed has recently demonstrated this concept and its ability to deploy an AI-controlled aircraft, with targets assigned by a nearby pilot.
Lockheed also tested its first autonomous Black Hawk flight in 2022, which could be in the future replaced by the RaiderX helicopter concept.
Fonte: Lockheed Martin
Arma de Energia e Guerra Eletrônica
As drones and ultra-cheap weapons systems become omnipresent on modern battlefields, conventional air defenses are insufficient. This is because using an expensive missile to shoot a much cheaper drone is a losing proposition in the long run.
It has become a very serious issue for all modern military forces, with smaller adversaries able to quickly deplete expensive missile-based air defense, like seen for US warships over the Yemeni coasts.
O custo de usar mísseis navais caros — que podem chegar a US$ 2,1 milhões por disparo — para destruir drones houthis pouco sofisticados — estimados em alguns milhares de dólares cada — é uma preocupação crescente.
Especialistas também apontam que os destróieres têm limite de quantos mísseis podem disparar antes de precisar retornar a um cais de armas dos EUA para recarregar, e cada navio contém 90 ou mais tubos de mísseis.
Electronic warfare could be an answer. It utilizes only electricity to either cut the connection of a drone with its pilot, or even directly fry the electronic components with directed microwaves.
Energy weapons, mostly lasers, could also be used and mounted on vehicles, ships, or airplanes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMx1-yaRLyQ&list=PLqa9423Jd9MqKBzWZigk6LSEdq2v8U6-1
Novas Armas
Lockheed Martin is also in charge of developing some of the next generation of weapons for the US military, with a strong presence on a few key systems:
- Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM): Como o ICBM atual data da metade da Guerra Fria, uma versão modernizada é necessária, na forma do Mk21A, um veículo de reentrada integrado (RV) para o programa Sentinel ICBM.
- Long-range precision Strike missile (PrSM) com alcance de 60 a mais de 499 quilômetros.
- Next Generation Interceptor (NGI), para interceptar mísseis balísticos de longo alcance.
Conclusão
Lockheed Martin is the keystone of American and NATO air power. And despite the mixed results of the likely too-ambitious F-35 program, it is still at the center of all the key capacities that will be needed in future conflicts: missile and drone defense, cyber warfare, integrated digital command, unmanned aircraft, space capability, hypersonic missiles, and ICBM.
So even if Elon Musk comes for some of Lockheed’s revenue streams, the company is not going anywhere and will stay a prime military supplier.
As long as America and NATO can maintain their current military budget, this is likely an investment that will have limited downside and could provide significant gains to investors in case of escalating conflict in Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia.
Besides questions of military budgets, the expertise of Lockheed in building satellites and space probes might pay off greatly as a new space race is heating up. It could become an important supplier of space habitats, equipment for mining the Moon or asteroids, as well as building the infrastructure required for space tourism and the beginning of actual space colonization.
