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트럼프의 무역 전쟁: 발생한 일, 보복 조치, 그리고 기대되는 전망
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무역 전쟁
With the new US presidency, a different type of international policy is going to be conducted, reminiscent of some aspects of Trump’s first four years as a president. Back then we saw, as today, trade wars, mostly with China, and a focus on tariffs and sanctions to force the hands of allies and foes alike.
하지만 이번에는 여러 가지 이유로 상황이 다르게 느껴집니다. 캐나다와 그린란드를 합병하겠다는 위협, 우크라이나 전쟁이 지속되면서 미국과 EU 사이에 강한 분열을 초래하고, 더욱 단호해진 중국 등으로 인해 압력이 2017년보다 훨씬 높고 빠르게 상승하고 있는 듯합니다.
따라서 투자자들은 이번에 더욱 주의를 기울이고, 현재와 미래의 관세 및 그 영향이 국제 무역, 금융 시장, 그리고 주요 통화의 안정성에 어떤 영향을 미치는지 추적해야 합니다.
전반적으로 미국은 1974년 이후 지속적이고 증가하는 무역 적자를 기록해 왔으며, 이는 미국의 탈산업화에 크게 기여했습니다. 이는 트럼프 지지층의 기반을 이루는 소위 ‘플라이오버 주’들의 불만을 촉발하는 주요 요인입니다.
지난 30년 동안 무역 적자는 점점 연료 수입보다 제조품에 더 많이 기인하게 되었으며, 미국은 서비스 무역에서는 흑자를 기록하고 있습니다.
트럼프가 무역 적자 문제를 해결하기 위해 선호하는 방법은 관세, 즉 수입세일 것으로 보입니다. 이 주제에 대해 더 알고 싶다면 “관세란 무엇이며 어떻게 작동하는가?“를 참고하십시오.
트럼프가 지금까지 한 일
첫 번째 놀라운 관세
When everyone expected tariffs on Chinese goods early on, markets were caught by surprise at the harsh treatment reserved for Mexico and Canada. On February 1st, 2025, the White House imposed 25% tariffs on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada, and only 10% on China. An exception was made for energy from Canada (mostly oil) at 10%.
미국 이웃 국가에 높은 관세를 부과한 이유는 펜타닐 및 기타 마약 밀매와 불법 이민 때문이라고 주장되었습니다.
트럼프 자신에 따르면, 이들 국가와의 무역 불균형은 “미국을 이용하고 있으며 중단되어야 한다”고 말했습니다.
2024년 미국의 캐나다와의 무역 적자는 633억 달러, 멕시코와는 1,718억 달러였습니다. 이는 북미 무역 전체가 2,251억 달러에 달하며, 2024년 전체 9,184억 달러 미국 무역 적자의 상당 부분을 차지합니다.
이는 또한 트럼프가 관세를 강력한 도구로 믿는 일반적인 신념을 확인시켜 주며, 그의 첫 임기 동안 성공적인 전략이었습니다. 따라서 앞으로도 비슷한 조치가 이어질 것으로 예상됩니다.
The Tax Foundation estimated that these tariffs, if maintained, would increase federal tax revenue by $880B from 2025-2034 for the North American tariffs, $241B for Chinese tariffs.
강철 및 알루미늄
Imports of steel and aluminum are also ramping up from the previous 10% to 25%. The US imports most of its steel from Canada, Brazil, Mexico, and South Korea.
출처: Mining.com
Another change is that the tariffs will more broadly strike metal products, in order to suppress methods used to bypass the existing tariffs, like importing minimally processed Chinese and Russian metals or fabricated structural steel, aluminum extrusions, and steel strands for pre-stressed concrete.
“The steel and aluminum tariffs 2.0 will put an end to foreign dumping, boost domestic production, and secure our steel and aluminum industries as the backbone and pillar industries of America’s economic and national security.”
Peter Navarro – Trump’s trade adviser
Regarding aluminum, the main loser is Canada, by far the largest exporter of aluminum to the US, followed by the United Arab Emirates.
공정 무역
Overall, the Trump administration clearly sees any US trade deficit as “taking advantage of America” and will fight aggressively against “unfair trade barriers”. This is the core of the “Fair and Reciprocal Plan” revealed on 13th February.
“미국이 이용당하던 시절은 끝났습니다. 이 계획은 미국 노동자를 최우선으로 두고, 모든 산업 분야에서 경쟁력을 향상시키며, 무역 적자를 감소시키고, 우리의 경제 및 국가 안보를 강화할 것입니다.”
In the same announcement a few examples were given that are most likely going to be the first targets to be hit:
- 브라질의 미국 에탄올 관세는 18%이며, 미국은 2.5%입니다.
- 인도의 미국 농산물 관세는 39%이며, 미국은 5%입니다.
- 인도의 미국 오토바이 제품 관세는 100%이며, 미국은 2.4%입니다.
- EU는 대부분의 미국 조개류를 금지했으며, “2020년에 조개류 수출 승인을 신속히 처리하기로 약속했음에도 불구하고”.
- EU의 미국 자동차 관세는 10%이며, 미국은 2.5%입니다.
This is not by far the whole list, which might run in the 6-digits.
“2019년 보고서에 따르면 132개 국가와 60만 개가 넘는 제품 라인에서 미국 수출업체는 3분의 2 이상 높은 관세에 직면하고 있습니다.”
This focus on matching other countries’ tariffs might ultimately hurt the most developing countries like India and Brazil, as well as the EU, Canada, and Mexico.
출처: India Today
As a reminder, during his electoral campaign, 트럼프는 중국산 상품에 60% 관세, 미국이 수입하는 모든 다른 상품에 최대 20% 관세를 고려했습니다.
EU와 부가가치세(VAT) 문제
The discussion around “fairness” raises an interesting question of what is or is not a trade barrier. Tariffs are pretty straightforward, but what other forms of taxes?
This is especially important regarding VAT (Valued Added Tax), a form of consumption tax leveraged by most European countries, most of the time above 20%, accounting for 18.6% of total tax revenues in the EU.
출처: Tax Foundation
“이 미국 정책의 목적상, 우리는 관세보다 훨씬 더 가혹한 VAT 시스템을 사용하는 국가들을 관세와 유사하게 간주할 것입니다.”
President Trump
The argument to consider is a tax on imports is that it reduces the attractiveness of imports in these countries. Another argument is that for example, a Volkswagen exported from Germany to the US does not see its price increased by VAT in the US, while a US-made Ford imported in Germany does.
하지만 이 주장은 논쟁의 여지가 있습니다. 독일에서 제조·판매되는 폭스바겐은 미국에서 부과되는 VAT와 동일한 세금을 적용받지만, 독일에 수입된 미국산 포드는 동일한 VAT를 적용받기 때문입니다.
This still presents a severe problem for all countries with a VAT system. On one hand, they are unlikely to dismantle the source of 1/5 of their taxes and a long-established system embedded into the economy.
On the other hand, Trump’s perception of VAT as equivalent to tariffs could trigger massive retaliation, likely collapsing the trans-Atlantic trade volume.
보복 조치
중국
While they might help re-balance the trade deficit, tariffs are also equally likely to cause retaliation.
Already, China announced that increased tariffs will hit US exports:
- 미국 석탄 및 액화천연가스 수출에 15% 관세.
- 석유, 농업 기계 및 대형 자동차에 10% 관세.
Probably more consequential, China also announced non-tariff retaliations. This includes export controls on products related to five critical minerals: tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium.
These non-tariff retaliations can have far-reaching consequences, especially for minerals like 텅스텐은 반도체 제조, 전차 장갑, 탄약, 로켓·미사일 엔진 등에 필수적이며 (follow the link for a dedicated investment report on tungsten, with a stock that doubled on the new of Chinese counter-sanctions).
“베이징의 화요일 조치 이후 고객들은 믿을 수 없는 상태에 빠졌습니다.
우리 경제, 제조업, 방위, 모든 것이 그것에 크게 의존하고 있습니다. 그럼에도 불구하고 러시아, 중국, 북한이 전체 생산량의 약 90%를 차지하고 있습니다.”
Lewis Black – CEO of Almonty Industries (ALM ), an out-of-China tungsten miner
Overall, these sanctions on rare earth and critical metals should hit the productive capacity of the US defense, aerospace, semiconductor, and renewable industries the most.
캐나다
Canada has already vowed to retaliate against the tariffs.
The new tariffs were “entirely unjustified. Canada will give a “firm and clear” response to the latest trade barriers planned by US President Donald Trump”
On February 1st, the Government of Canada announced it is moving forward with 25% tariffs on $155 billion worth of goods.
The first phase will include tariffs on $30 billion in goods imported from the US, including orange juice, peanut butter, wine, spirits, beer, coffee, appliances, apparel, footwear, motorcycles, cosmetics, and pulp and paper.
Further tariffs could apply to passenger vehicles and trucks, including electric vehicles, steel and aluminum products, certain fruits and vegetables, aerospace products, beef, pork, dairy, trucks and buses, recreational vehicles, and recreational boats.
멕시코
The same response is happening with Mexico.
“I’ve instructed my economy minister to implement the plan B we’ve been working on, which includes tariff and non-tariff measures in defense of Mexico’s interests.”
Claudia Sheinbaum – President of Mexico.
The Mexican president was also outraged at the accusation of Mexico’s government having an “intolerable alliance with drug trafficking groups”.
It is not clear yet what level of retaliatory tariffs will be enacted and on which goods. USA’s largest exports to Mexico are corn, refined oil, and medical equipment.
The US State with the most exports to Mexico was by far Texas ($234B), followed by California ($36B), although the most exposed in the percentage of total exports was New Mexico (around 70% of all exports).
EU
The European Commission vowed to react “immediately” to Trump’s tariffs.
“Unjustified tariffs against the European Union will not be left without a response. We will take proportional and clear countermeasures.”
Maybe more concerning for US-EU trade is that the EU has strengthened its legislative and diplomatic arsenal regarding trade wars since Trump’s first presidency, notably its “Enforcement Regulation” and the “Anti-Coercion Instrument”.
In 2018, the counter-tariff mostly focused on symbolic products like Harley-Davidson (HOG ) motorbikes and bourbon whiskey.
This time, Big Tech might be the target, including Elon Musk’s X.com, especially as the EU buys a lot of digital services from the USA and is looking to better control the influence of foreign tech companies and social media.
“Those who say the EU is ill-prepared are wrong: During the past term, we have prepared ourselves exactly for a scenario that is unfolding at the moment. Because we have expanded our toolbox, we can now better defend our interests.”
Bernd Lange – Chairman of the European Parliament’s trade committee.
However, the actual activation of these tools is yet to be seen, as a qualified majority of 15 out of the EU’s 27 member countries would be needed.
아시아
So far, the Japanese government has requested that Washington exclude Japan from the targets of steel, aluminum, and reciprocal tariffs. It has however restrained from threatening to retaliate.
South Korea is likely to be less affected as 98% of its trade with the U.S. is tariff-free under the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement. However, the growing trade war could have indirect consequences:
“If the US places tariffs on Canada and Mexico, all of the Korean companies who have invested in those regions will be hit hard,”
More than about tariffs, Taiwan is looking nervously at Trump’s declaration that “Taiwan had taken semiconductor chip business away from the United States and that he wanted it back“. The response has been very conciliatory, with Taiwan vowing to make more investments in the US chip industry.
India has previously been described by Trump as “a tariff king and a big abuser of trade ties“. No retaliation has occurred yet, but top US exports to India include crude oil and petroleum products ($14bn), LNG, coal, medical devices, scientific instruments, scrap metals, turbojets, computers, and almonds.
더 큰 맥락
미국 vs. 중국
Trump’s trade wars cannot be understood in a vacuum, and need to be observed in the overall international context.
With the emergence of China as an alternative superpower, many countries are seeing their economic interest realigning away from the USA.
Since the end of the Cold War, China has become the most important trade partner for most of the planet, with the exception of Mexico, Canada, and Western Europe. A reduction of trade with the US following the tariffs might make these countries trade more with China as well soon.
출처: HowMuch
새로운 세계 질서
Another way to interpret the current situation is parallels to the 1930s when the 1929 economic crisis triggered a wave of mercantilism all over the world, driven in large part by retaliatory tariffs.
At the same time, the trend of de-industrialization in the US, and the West at large, has been largely driven by decades of globalization. It also created a destabilizing effect on society, impoverishing large regions and entire social classes, and fueling inequality and populism.
“The threat that I worry most about vis-a-vis Europe is not Russia, not China, it’s not any other external actor. What I worry about is the threat from within, the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values.
When we see European courts canceling elections and senior officials threatening to cancel others, we need to ask whether we’re holding ourselves to an appropriately high standard.
When put in parallel to the possible partial conquest of Ukraine, harsh criticisms of the EU delivery by Vice-president Vance, talks of the US annexing Greenland from Denmark, a NATO ally, or even the invasion of Canada, this put the tariffs and trade wars as one part of a greater destabilization of the global international system.
“Canada should become our Cherished 51st State. Much lower taxes, and far better military protection for the people of Canada — AND NO TARIFFS!”
승자와 패자
As the US engages in trade wars with the entirety of the world, this will have far-reaching consequences, some apparent, some only clear later on. So this is the occasion for investors to review their portfolio in time and adapt to the incoming consequences of tariffs and trade wars.
북미
In the US the industries the most likely to benefit are local manufacturing, especially vertically integrated operations (no import of parts or material), with its imported competitors now much more expensive.
In reverse, US exporters, including ethanol and corn producers or US energy like LNG, might suffer from retaliatory tariffs.
In Canada, the most impact will likely be felt by the steel and aluminum industry, as well as all their suppliers. The impact will likely also be felt across the economy, as the USA represents the destination of 77% of traded Canadian goods.
For Mexico, the consequence could be far-reaching as well, with the possible move back of factories to the USA, including car factories, as well as damages to the Mexican agricultural sector.
중국 및 전략적 광물
For now, the 10% tariff is likely to have only a moderate impact on USA-China trade.
The most likely immediate consequence will be on the industries the most impacted by export limits on critical materials, including the chip industry Trump wants to repatriate to the USA, as China often controls 80-95% of the supply chain.
Alternatively, non-Chinese producers of these minerals might suddenly be able to command a premium for their products, thanks to the more reliable supply they can offer for strategic materials.
아시아
In broader Asia, the economy of high-tariff countries like India is likely to be impacted heavily, as they will either have to see their exports decline or open their local market to new competitors.
ASEAN nations, especially Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia, which had boomed from re-exports of Chinese goods, and factories moving from China to the SE-Asia might be impacted as well.
This comes on top of up to 271% tariffs on solar panels from the region, put in place by the Biden administration.
The impact on Japan’s and South Korea’s economies might be a bit more muted, mostly concentrated on the steel industry.
Similarly, Taiwan’s main focus will be to navigate policies around chip manufacturing, more than tariffs.
EU
The EU is in a complicated position regarding its relations with the US. It has long been depending on America to be a security provider to the continent, including in its support of Ukraine against Russia.
As the new administration is openly cutting off the Europeans from its negotiations with Putin, the trade tensions are just another element weakening the relationship between the two main parts of the Western alliance.
At the same time, it is yet to be seen how the EU will manage the fact that some of its members are much more friendly to the USA than others (potentially paralyzing retaliations), as well as its elite’s deep opposition to Trump’s politics, domestic and foreign.
전 세계
Some specific companies in South America are likely to be impacted by the tariffs, notably steel companies in Brazil. The export of agricultural goods from Brazil and Argentina could be impacted as well.
금
In this context of increased tensions, it is important to remember one of the root causes of the US trade deficit. As the provider of the dollar, the world’s reserve currency, the US is trapped in the so-called Triffin Dilemma:
The growing influence of China, the seizing of Russia’s currency reserves in 2022, and the growing US national debt are all slowly eroding the position of the US dollar.
As a consequence, gold and bitcoin surged, as they are both candidates for becoming an alternative reserve currency without counter-party risk or any specific nation controlling it.
출처: Gold Price
Bitcoin Price – 출처: Google
결론
So far, the willingness to impose tariffs by the Trump administration has mostly been met with an almost equal willingness to push back and retaliate, including from close allies of the USA.
This is likely going to redistribute the cards of international trade, with two likely final outcomes: either an acceleration of deglobalization or a turn of the rest of the world to other trade partners, especially China.
In the long run, the tariffs and trade war might, however, significantly contribute to the re-industrialization of the USA, especially in industries like metallurgy, automotive, shipping, semiconductors, etc.
Only time will tell if this was worth the price, especially as this could weaken the role of the dollar as the global reserve currency at a crucial junction in history.
