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캐나다 & 멕시코 관세는 심각한 위협: 이러한 산업들이 고통받을 수 있음
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관세 및 무역 전쟁
The Trump administration will certainly impose tariffs on the USA’s trade partners, as it was both a center of its policy in his first mandate and an often repeated campaign promise.
Most relevant will be the tariffs on China, but also the USA’s two largest trade partners, Mexico and Canada.
출처: EV Magazine
The goal of these tariffs is to boost “made in America” manufacturing and also to be used as leverage in other diplomatic negotiations. As such, the Mexico and Canada tariffs are rather different than tariffs with China and Europe.
Tariffs targeting overseas countries will likely be mostly geopolitical tools, linking them to complex negotiations involving the position of European countries and China in regard to NATO, Russia, Israel, Iran, etc.
The tariffs with Mexico and Canada will be a lot more linked to domestic concerns, from border control (migrants to drug trafficking) to energy policies. Currently, the consensus is that the most likely scenario is a broad 25% tariff, which will necessarily involve a broad retaliatory response.
“2021년 1월 20일, 나의 첫 번째 행정명령 중 하나로, 멕시코와 캐나다에 들어오는 모든 제품에 대해 25% 관세를 부과하는 모든 필요한 문서에 서명할 것이며, 그들의 터무니없는 개방 국경도 마찬가지입니다.
수천 명이 멕시코와 캐나다를 통해 쏟아져 들어오고 있으며, 이전에 본 적 없는 수준으로 범죄와 마약을 가져오고 있습니다.”
While this could be beneficial for some domestic producers, other companies are likely to suffer from this, and investors should be aware of the risk before the beginning of the new Trump presidency.
The most daring investors might even be tempted to build more complex strategies involving shorting stocks suffering from the tariffs, although this is likely best done only by experienced professionals.
관세는 어떻게 작동하나요?
The way tariff works is by adding an extra tax, and therefore costs, to any products manufactured in the targeted country. Tariffs can be designed to target only some product classes, like for example automobiles or wine, or the broader economy and everything manufactured or produced in a given country.
- 생산 최적 위치에 대한 계산을 변경하여 최종 소비자가 어디에 있는지에 따라 생산지를 결정하게 함, 이는 일반적으로 트럼프가 구상한 관세의 목표입니다.
- 반대 방향으로 유사한 관세를 부과하는 보복 조치로, 이는 경제적 손실을 줄이고 정치적 포지셔닝 및 이후 협상에서 외교적 지렛대를 확보하기 위해 이루어집니다(‘당신이 관세를 철회하면, 우리는 우리 관세를 철회합니다’).
- 양방향 관세가 국경 간 무역을 방해함에 따라 전체 무역량이 감소합니다.
- 우회 메커니즘, 예를 들어 첫 번째 트럼프 행정부 기간 동안 많은 중국 수출업체가 베트남 또는 멕시코 수출품으로 ‘리브랜딩’된 사례와 같습니다.
- 공급망에서 이전에 저렴했던 최종 제품이나 부품이 더 비싼 것으로 대체되어 인플레이션을 가속화할 수도 있습니다.
Overall, tariffs were very important in the mercantilist era of the 19th century but progressively were phased out post-WW2 to reach a low point recently. This trend might be reversing.
출처: Pew Research
멕시코 기업 및 부문에 미치는 영향
자동차 제조업체
In the past decades, Mexico has become the prime destination for automotive manufacturing, with a special focus on exports to the US. Mexico was the 2nd largest exporter of passenger vehicles into the US and the first of heavy-duty trucks.
It also exported plenty of parts for the US factories (#1 in exports to the US) and is overall the world’s 4th largest manufacturer of automotive parts.
This was driven by a lighter regulatory environment, weaker unions, as well as cheaper salaries. And of course calculated upon the basis of tariff-free import of the cars into the USA, relying on the NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) treaty, now USMCA.
The major automotive companies the most likely to be impacted by these tariffs are Ford (F ), General Motors (GM ), and Stellantis (STLA ) (which own among others the Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge, and RAM brands). On average, they would suffer a $3,000 extra cost per car.
출처: Yahoo Finance
In particular, GM has 34.9% of its US sales produced in Mexico. The Japanese Honda (HMC ), which sends 80% of its Mexican production to the US market, would be affected as well.
John Deere
During his campaign, Donald Trump threatened John Deere with a 200 percent tariff should he win the election, and it opted to export manufacturing to Mexico. And the company has indeed cut jobs in Iowa while building a new factory in Mexico.
Still, the company management denies moving production to Mexico and professes its “commitment to US manufacturing”, something that might not be enough to fully convince Trump and his team. And even more than with automotive, the tractor company offshore production is a very big target for rural Americans that form the base of Trump voters demographic.
Carrier
In 2016, the HVAC manufacturer Carrier became the center of a controversy about moving its factories to Mexico. This led to a deal with Trump back then to keep at least some of the factory jobs in the US.
In the long run, this seems to have mostly delayed but not stopped the move, largely driven by the massive price differential in workers’ salaries.
In 2023, Carrier opened its 8th factory in Mexico, making it one of the largest HVAC operations in the world.
As Trump is likely to remember what he will see as a “broken promise”, Carrier could become during the second Trump presidency a center of controversy regarding manufacturing policies once again.
멕시코 산업 REIT
REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) are a way to invest in real estate through a more liquid instrument than direct ownership.
In the past few years, Mexican industrial REITs, specialized in owning manufacturing and logistical facilities, have been a great investment, benefiting from factories moving into the country. A major driver was American or Chinese companies moving manufacturing to Mexico, while still benefiting from access to the US market.
The equivalent of a US REIT in Mexico is called a FIBRA, usually listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange. This includes companies like Fibra Prologis (FBBPF), Fibra Nova (FNOVA17.MX), or Terrafina (CBAOF) for example.
캐나다 기업 및 부문에 미치는 영향
As Canada is a high-income country, its exports to the US are less focused on manufacturing offshore using cheap labor, and more on commodities abundant in Canada, especially the ones difficult to export overseas.
Large US exports to Canada could also be affected negatively by tariffs, especially if this escalates into a full-fledged trade war.
캐나다 석유
Despite the US being a massive oil producer, Canada provides roughly 20% of the oil used stateside. This is especially true for oil consumed in inland regions like the Great Lakes, Midwest, and the Rockies.
그 결과, 관세가 발효된 지 이틀 만에 휘발유 가격이 갤런당 30~40센트 상승하고, 최대 70센트까지 오를 수 있습니다.
By far, this is Canada’s largest export to the USA, standing at $128.51B in 2023.
In parallel, Canadian oil has very few other possible export markets, as transport infrastructures are not developed enough to carry it all overseas. So, broad tariffs could suddenly make Canadian oil a lot less competitive, potentially forcing producers to reduce production.
The top 5 largest Canadian oil & gas companies are:
- Cenovus Energy
- Suncor Energy
- Imperial Oil
- Enbridge
- Canadian Natural Resources
It should also be noted that Donald Trump’s domestic energy policy has been underscored by the phrase “drill baby, drill!”, referring to maximizing US oil production. This could have a double negative effect on Canadian oil to reduce the need for US oil imports and depress global oil prices.
캐나다 목재
This could cause Canadian timber exports to suffer greatly from tariffs, potentially making them uncompetitive against US domestic production.
The top 3 largest Canadian timber companies are:
- West Fraser Timber
- Suncor Energy Inc.
- Imperial Oil Ltd.
미국 자동차 제조업체
Already hit by the threat on their Mexico factories, automakers could also suffer in case Canada enacts retaliatory tariffs on US car imports.
These cars sent to Canada make up almost a fifth of the $362.9B worth of Canadian imports from the USA. For example, Chevrolet, a GM brand, was the top-selling brand in Canada in the summer of 2024.
관세 가능성
Tariffs during Trump’s presidency are likely, as they were already used as an international policy tool during his first term as president.
However, we also know that Trump will likely use positions like the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico as a starting point for negotiations. If these countries give in on something else Trump wants, like closing the border to migrants, we could see the tariffs decreased or some product classes exempted.
At the same time, if targeted countries retaliate or other topics fail to be agreed upon in the direction the US wants, tariffs could be escalated further. This creates a lot of incertitude for investors, who will need to navigate these risks and determine if they are priced in properly in individual companies’ stocks.
결론
Broad tariffs on all imports from the two largest trade partners of the USA are likely to reshape the countries’ economies if they are enacted. There is still a limited chance that this is mostly a negotiation tactic and that the final tariff will be smaller or centered only around specific industries.
In any case, investors should take note and anticipate the risks of the tariffs being here to stay, forcing changes from the decades-long trend of moving manufacturing to the USA’s neighbors and overseas.
