A Queda da Energia Renovável em 2023

Nos últimos meses, os investidores em energia renovável tiveram um período bastante difícil. Quedas nos preços das ações, leilões de energia eólica offshore cancelados e baixas contábeis contribuíram para um clima bastante desanimado.

Então, o que aconteceu? Por quê? E para onde as coisas podem ir a partir daqui?

Uma Correção Brutal

The largest clean energy ETF, QCLN, has suffered an almost 50% decline since its peak in 2021.

QCLN Gráfico de preços

This correction is even more brutal in some sub-sectors of the clean energy industry, with the situation especially painful for the wind industry. For example, the leading offshore wind operator Orsted (D2G.DE ) stock (DNNGY) is now priced below its 2017 IPO level (excluding dividends).  The largest wind turbine manufacturer, Vestas (VWDRY), is back to its 2008 price level (excluding dividends).

Isso surpreendeu muitos investidores, já que as renováveis estavam se tornando uma parte maior da matriz energética e eram amplamente vistas como o futuro dos sistemas de energia.

Uma Convergência de Causas

Tempestades

The first problem in the renewable energy sector started with a profit warning from Siemens Energy (ENR.SW ) (ENR.DE ) in junho de 2023. Quality problems in its Gamesa branch meant that some turbine engines would need to be replaced much sooner than expected, hurting the company’s profits. This led to a sudden drop of 36% in the stock price.

The bad news kept piling up when Orsted warned of problems on its US projects in agosto de 2023, with some maybe having to be canceled entirely.

This created a wave of concern in the industry, with many offshore auctions for wind projects meeting little enthusiasm or even failing entirely, like in the UK in setembro de 2023.

Inflação

Besides technological issues at Siemens, inflation is the root cause of the sudden wave of troubles in the wind industry.

Projects calculated a few years ago are now facing increasing costs on labor and equipment, as well as supply chain damage by the pandemic. So, what made sense economically in 2020 or 2021 might not make sense anymore in 2023.

Aumento das Taxas

Compounding on the inflation issue, central banks all over the world have raised interest rates to put inflation under control. This surprised market participants and industrial companies, after 3 decades of declining rates, marked only by temporary and short-lived spikes.

Fonte: Chartstorm

This means that huge capital-intensive projects, like renewable energy, are now facing financing costs much higher than in the previous decade.

This can also hurt companies that need to refinance their debt load, a common situation for fast-growing renewable companies.  As a result, July to setembro de 2023 saw a record outflow of capital from clean energy ETFs.

This is a more generalized problem affecting the energy sector, including solar farms, utilities, and solar panel manufacturers.

Saturação da Rede & Armazenamento

While the previous factors are mostly out of the control of the industry, one additional growing issue is starting to hurt renewable energy. Power grids have been designed around fossil fuel-based power generation (and hydro + nuclear power). This means that the intermittency of renewables can become a growing issue in the larger part of the grid they represent.

This is supposed to be mitigated by utility-scale energy storage. The problem is that investments in this sector have lagged behind, resulting in occasional renewable energy waste. Similarly, in periods of low wind or sun intensity, the lack of energy storage capacity forces grid operators to fall back on fossil fuels like gas or coal.

This is getting corrected, with a +75% storage capacity growth between 2021 and 2022. But this might take a few years to catch up and weigh on the renewable sector as a whole until it is solved.

Fonte: IEA

E Agora?

Um Muro de Preocupações

Some issues are temporary but serious in the short term.  The durability of older models of wind turbines might not be as good as initially forecasted. This is for sure true for the Siemens Gamesa turbines, but this is now a concern for the rest of the industry as well.

Grid saturation and the mismatch between demand and production of electricity is likely to stay for a few years until energy storage has caught up with the renewable revolution. This might have different effects for different sub-sectors:

• Concessionárias verdes podem ver lucros em queda por alguns anos devido à necessidade de reduzir a produção ou investir mais em armazenamento de energia.
• Produtores de turbinas eólicas e painéis solares devem ser estratégicos quanto ao mercado que visam.
• Empresas de armazenamento de energia, tanto operadoras quanto fabricantes, podem experimentar um boom sem precedentes.

None of these problems are unsolvable, but they will not be solved overnight either.

Custos Mais Altos Por Mais Tempo

The important thing to consider is that energy generation of qualquer kind is a capital-intensive industry. This is true for renewable, as well as for fossil fuels or nuclear.

Portanto, é provável que a geração crescente de energia seja mais cara a partir de agora, independentemente da tecnologia utilizada. Pelo menos, enquanto a inflação e as taxas de juros mais altas forem a nova normalidade.

Outros setores de investimento também foram prejudicados por esse ambiente macroeconômico; por exemplo, todo o setor de concessionárias dos EUA está em baixa de 3,5 anos em outubro de 2023. Até veículos de investimento “seguros” como títulos dos EUA “sofrem a maior queda da história”, segundo o Bank of America (BAC ).

Isso também é verdade na indústria de combustíveis fósseis. O petróleo de xisto não está crescendo muito em sua produção, preferindo manter um olhar atento aos custos crescentes e favorecer a devolução de capital aos acionistas. Agora há apenas 504 plataformas operacionais nos EUA, comparado a 1.609 em 2014 no pico do boom do xisto.

Os custos mais altos provavelmente durarão, pois energia mais cara (de todos os tipos) provavelmente contribuirá para manter a inflação alta. Outros fatores como o caos geopolítico (como tristemente ilustrado pelas guerras na Ucrânia e agora em Israel), a desglobalização e a sindicalização também contribuirão para manter a inflação mais alta por mais tempo.

Progresso Tecnológico Contínuo

The renewable revolution was made possible thanks to continuous solar and wind technology progress. This has caused a collapse of renewable energies’ costs, making them competitive with fossil fuels and nuclear, with solar costs down 90% in 10 years.

Now, this trend of declining costs, thanks to technology, is compensated by rising costs due to inflation. But this does not mean renewable technologies have stopped progressing.

For example, the most innovative companies with cheaper or more efficient solar panels, like First Solar (FSLR ) (FSLR), could be among the big winners in the sector in the long term.

FSLR Gráfico de preços

It is also possible that other technologies make a comeback, like nuclear, thanks to innovative Small Modular Reactors (SMR), something we discussed in our articles “Top 5 Nuclear Stocks To Invest In (outubro de 2023)” and “The Nuclear Debate: A Power Solution for the Future or a High-Stakes Gamble?”.

Portanto, os investidores devem permanecer otimistas quanto ao progresso tecnológico e contar com uma nova rodada de inovação para tornar as renováveis (e talvez a nuclear) as soluções dominantes e de baixo carbono para a geração de energia no futuro.

O impulso crescente da eletrificação para aquecimento, transporte e demanda industrial atualmente cobertos por combustíveis fósseis também deve garantir uma demanda constantemente crescente por geração de energia nas próximas décadas.