은 투자: 수요, 부족 및 위험에 대한 심층 탐구

교차로에 선 은

Precious metals have been the refuge to which capital flocks in troubled times since the dawn of civilization. In large part, this is because they represent a form of wealth that is independent from the monetary or financial system.

And for sure, gold seems to have been playing this role in the past few years since the explosion of international tensions following the start of the war in Ukraine. Tariffs and international trade with the US slowing down also contributed.

출처: GoldPrice

The cheaper relative of gold, silver, is also outperforming, reaching in nominal terms (not inflation-adjusted) its all-time highs from the 1980s.

However, concerns about inflation, geopolitics, and monetary disorder are only part of the story with silver. What was historically a metal mostly used in jewelry and coinage is today a crucial industrial metal, notably for electronics, and the cornerstone of the green energy revolution, with solar panel production now a major driver of silver demand.

Another part of the story is that production of fresh silver from mining is struggling to keep up with demand, depleting inventory over time.

So while not as talked about or valuable as gold, silver might have as much or maybe even more upside potential as the yellow metal.

은이란? 특성, 용도 및 역사

Silver is a gray metal known since antiquity, believed to have been discovered around 5000 BC, with the first jewelry and silver objects made in 4000 BC.

For a long time, silver’s value was comparable to that of gold, with the ratio between the two metals varying depending on the region of the world and the respective abundance of ore in that area.

Since the end of the direct monetary role of gold and silver in the global monetary system, the silver-to-gold ratio has fluctuated, with silver becoming less precious than gold over time.

출처: Aberdeen Investments

For this reason, silver coinage was common and represented a form of money in most of human civilization.

Silver is ranked chemically in the same category as copper and gold.

출처: Priam Study Center

It shares with these metals a few key characteristics and some unique ones of its own:

• 매우 높은 전도성을 가지고 있으며, 모든 원소 중 가장 높은 전기 및 열 전도성을 지닙니다.
• 높은 연성과 연성을 가지고 있어(부서지지 않고 변형) 초박형 시트와 층을 만들 수 있습니다.
• 가장 반사율이 높은 원소이며(광택 은은 가시광선 스펙트럼의 95%를 반사합니다).
• 세포막을 손상시키고 대사와 DNA에 방해를 주어 박테리아, 바이러스, 곰팡이를 죽일 수 있는 소독제로 작용합니다.

은은 어디에서 오는가?

Silver deposits are unequally distributed on Earth, with the largest ore resource in Latin America, notably Mexico, Peru, and Chile. Production is also strong in China, Russia, Central Asia, Australia, and the USA.

Some of the top-producing countries have more or less concentrated deposits, with notably Mexico having several mega-ore deposits, and 10 out of the top 20 largest silver mines in the world.

출처: Mining Visuals

Silver mining costs vary widely by region, with some areas like Oceania and Asia with an AISC (All-In Sustainable Cost) of $8-$9/ounce, versus CIS (Russia and former USSR countries) or North America’s AISC as high as $17-$19/ounce.

In all cases, with silver trading above $40 in mid-2025, this price surge made silver mining a high-margin activity in all regions, for the first time in decades.

출처: Voronoi

Only a minority of silver production comes from dedicated mines, as the metal is often found mixed with other minerals. Around 2/3^rd of the silver obtained today is a by-product of copper, lead, and zinc mining, making its supply relatively inflexible.

Another “production” source is silver recycling, providing almost 200 million ounces per year of supply.

출처: Silver Institute

Recycling tends to go up a little when prices are higher, but a lot of the unrecovered silver is lost due to technical reasons or too low concentration, and price fluctuation does not change that fact by much.

은 가격 역사와 사이클 (100년 관점)

Silver prices have been fluctuating widely when considered over a long period of time, with bull markets often coinciding with monetary shocks and periods of inflation, like in the 1970s after the US abandoned the gold standard.

출처: Mining Visuals

Silver is a relatively small market, with only $87B market size in 2024, making it significantly smaller than the gold market’s $291B.

The difference between the two precious metals is even larger when considering the above-ground inventory of both. Total gold available is estimated at a value of $24.7T, while silver global inventory is only worth $2.3T.

은 시장 조작 사례 (헌트 형제, JPMorgan)

The silver market’s small size makes it more susceptible to manipulation, with a notable episode being the attempt by oil tycoon Hunt’s brothers to create a short squeeze and corner the silver market in the 1980s.

그들은 1979년 초 약 6달러/온스였던 은 가격을 1980년 1월에 거의 50달러/온스로 끌어올렸습니다, 보잉 707 화물기를 charter하여 수천 톤의 은괴를 스위스 은행으로 운송했지만, 1억3400만 달러의 대규모 마진콜을 감당하지 못해 조작에 실패했습니다.

In 2020, JPMorgan은 수년간 은과 금 시장을 조작한 혐의로 9억2000만 달러의 벌금을 부과받았습니다, 이번에는 가격을 인위적으로 낮추었습니다.

This led many financial analysts to discuss the fairness of the silver spot price, considering past manipulations that went on for years at times.

은 수요 동인

Silver demand can be split between 2 categories: industrial uses and other uses.

The industrial uses cover industries such as electrical and electronics, solar panels (photovoltaic), alloys, and other applications like medical devices and treatment, or mirrors.
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The other uses are more related to the perceived value of silver alongside gold, whether it be jewelry, silverware, or investment forms like coins and metal bars.

Distinguishing industrial demand from other sources of demand is important, as it is mostly destructive, with very little of the silver used this way ever recovered or recycled.

최대90%까지의 모든 은 역사적으로 생산된 부식이나 회수 불가능한 산업용으로 손실되었습니다.

은 산업 수요

광전지

While investment-driven demand has grown since 2020, after a slump in the late 2010s, it is industrial demand that has grown the quickest in recent years.

This was driven primarily by growing production of solar panels, with demand from this industry up 289% since 2015.

In practice, every solar panel contains around 20g of silver (0.7 ounce), forming fine grid-like patterns known as “fingers” and “busbars” on the surface of solar cells.

은 가루는 페이스트로 변환된 후 실리콘 웨이퍼에 도포됩니다. 빛이 실리콘에 닿으면 전자가 방출되고, 세계 최고의 전도체인 은이 전기를 전달합니다.

In general, as solar technology has evolved and increased the production of electricity per solar panel, more silver has been used.

출처: Mining.com

As silver represents today more than 10% of a solar panel’s price, alternatives are being explored.

“저렴한 금속을 사용하는 기술이 이제 충분히 발전했으며, 은 가격이 급등하면 곧 대량 생산에 들어갈 것입니다.”

Zhong Baoshen – 롱지 그린 에너지 테크놀로지 회장의 세계 최대 solar panel manufacturer.

Likely, none will have silver’s remarkable thermal and electrical conductivity, but the price difference might be worth it economically.

So as prices rise durably above $30/ounce or even $40/ounce, this might put a limit on how much more solar panel production will increase silver demand.

“은 가격이 온스당 22~23달러가 아니라 30달러 수준일 때 대체가 더 매력적으로 보일 것입니다.”

Philip Klapwijk – 홍콩 기반 컨설팅 회사 Precious Metals Insights Ltd.의 전무 이사.

전기화

The rising demand for electrical and electronic applications, up 78% since 2015, is in large part related to electrification and batteries. In this application, silver’s resistance to corrosion (compared to copper, for example) and the fact that it is lightweight are as important as its electrical conductivity.

So EVs’ deployment is impacting silver consumption as well, and an entire car consumes barely as much silver as two solar panels.

Battery electric vehicles use between ~25-50 grams of silver per electric vehicle.

As contrary to solar panels, silver is only a small percentage of the total cost of an EV, making its substitution by other materials less likely.

With many countries now heading for car sales percentage of hybrids and EVs above 20-30%, or even >50%, especially in Asia, thanks to cheap Chinese EVs, this source of demand will only grow.

출처: Jostein Hauge

In addition, new battery chemistries like 삼성의 은 기반 전고체 배터리 could increase silver consumption much further by EVs if they become one of the standards of the new generation of EV batteries.

은 전자 및 AI

Silver is also used 일상 제품의 수많은 전자 부품에 소량으로 사용됩니다, including fuel cars (airbag deployment systems, automatic braking, infrared radars, LIDAR, etc.) with conductive pastes in automotive glass, circuit-breakers and fuses, switches, and relays used to activate varying electronic devices.

Silver is also used in power generation and distribution for electrical contacts in switches, transformers, relays, and capacitors.

This means that the increasing digitalization and AI growth, with associated data center build and electrical power consumption increase, will also become progressively a larger driver of silver demand.

기타

The first historical use of silver, photography, is still ongoing, although it is slowly declining, having been overtaken by digital pictures.

Silver is used in healthcare for antiseptic bandages, catheters, dental amalgams, and disinfectants, but also for hearing aids, X-ray films, and other medical devices.

Silver-based alloys are used in soldering for strong, corrosion-resistant joints in various industrial applications. Silver is also a catalyst for various chemical reactions.

Radio Frequency Identification Device (RFID) chips with their tiny, thin antennas made of sprayed-on silver, are replacing bar codes on many items in supermarkets and supply chain inventories. Slender silver wires can also be used as filament feed for 3D printers. Mirrors in telescopes, microscopes, and other optical instruments make use of silver’s high reflectivity.

Silver is also used in cloud seeding, a technology used to cause clouds to produce rain and try to control hurricanes.

귀금속 수요

Often dubbed the “gold of the poor”, silver has been used all over history as a precious metal more accessible to buy for the lower and middle classes, to whom gold might be too pricey.

This perception of “discount” gold, as well as the beauty of silver, is the driver behind the demand for jewelry, silverware, and investment purposes.

Production of silver jewelry and silverware is mostly done in India, China, and Italy.

출처: Silver Institute

은 공급 부족

Since 2020 and the explosion of solar panel production volumes, silver demand has outpaced production. This results in depleting available silver supply, with global inventory down by almost 400 million ounces since 2021.

출처: Sprott

“뉴사우스웨일스 대학교는 태양광 부문만으로도 2050년까지 전 세계 은 매장량의 85–98%를 고갈시킬 수 있다고 전망합니다.”

Of course, such forecasts are difficult to make as photovoltaic technology is evolving rapidly, and silver prices have been highly volatile. And if photovoltaic consumption declines, new demand from batteries or AI could upend the market anyway.

Still, it seems that at the same time as demand for silver stockpile increases, mostly from investment demand, the existing stock is being increasingly consumed by various industrial applications, as mining fails to produce enough quantities.

은 투자

Investors can get exposure to silver through three main channels:

1. 은 금속에 직접 투자
2. 은 ETF 및 기타 금융 상품에 투자,
3. 은 채굴 기업 주식.

은 주화(주화·주괴)

This is certainly the most direct way that you can get involved in the silver market. The purchase of silver bullion, or actual silver bars and coins, is relatively easy, and there are a number of trusted outlets from which you can purchase. Investment-grade bullion typically refers to silver that’s 99.9% pure.

You should, however, remember that this is the most illiquid way to invest in silver, and each purchase of physical silver will have a slight premium added, as well as the storage costs you may incur.

Collectibles and rare coins will usually cost a higher premium than “commoditized” forms of silver bullion like the Vienna Philharmonic, the American Silver Eagle, or the Canadian Maple Leaf.

출처: Bullion Vault

Sellers of bullion and advocates for the purchase of silver metal will often recommend storing precious metal coins and bars in dedicated storage facilities, and not with banks or other financial institutions, to reduce counterparty risks.

We recommend these companies for bullion purchase:

1. Bitpanda (USA Prohibited)
2. Gold Broker
3. Bullion Vault

Silver Financial Instruments

ETF 및 ETC

Some exchange-traded commodity (ETC) and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are 은 금속에 투자하고 은 가격을 추적하도록 만든 금융 상품, without having to bother with direct custody and storage of the metal, in exchange for a low fee.

Among the largest ones are:

• iShares Silver Trust (SLV )(총 비용 비율 0.50%).
• iShares Physical Silver ETC (SSLN ), 유럽 투자자를 위해 (총 비용 비율 0.20%).
• abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR )(총 비용 비율 0.30%)

옵션 및 선물

은 옵션 및 선물 are financial instruments used to speculate or hedge against fluctuations in the price of silver.

Usually, more than 5,000 ounces are traded at once, making this mostly a tool for experienced traders and not a good method for most retail investors to get exposure to silver.

It is also more of a short-term form of investment in silver (trading) than a long-term investment.

은 채굴 기업 ETF

As silver miners make most of their money from the differential between production costs and spot price, sufficiently rising silver prices can double, triple, or more their operating margins.

As a result, investors might be interested in getting exposure to silver miners as a way to invest in silver with a “built-in leverage”.

They might, however, diversify risks by investing in many companies at once, using dedicated ETFs for this purpose. Among some of the larger silver miner ETFs can be mentioned:

• Global X Silver Miners (SIL )
• Amplify Junior Silver Miners (SILJ )
• iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners (SLVP )

은 로열티 기업

The inherent risks in developing a new mine mostly limit investors’ choices between smaller, riskier companies and a few massive giants with slow or no growth. This is especially true for gold and silver mining.

This is why a new model emerged: the royalty company. The royalty model differs from direct investment in miners in a few key ways.

It provides capital, but not in exchange for shares or partial ownership. Instead, it will make money from a percentage of future sales linked to the future mining activity.

채굴 기업에게는주주 희석(창업자 포함)을 피할 수 있다는 점이 매우 매력적입니다

투자자에게는 로열티 기업이 위험을 분산시킬 수 있습니다. 이는 창업자에게 주식 발행이나 라이선스 계약보다 더 좋은 조건이며, 로열티 기업은 주식 매입이나 대출보다 더 유리하고 수익성 높은 조건을 협상할 수 있습니다.

Royalty companies are remarkably lean organizations, often having less than 100 people on their payroll. The consequence is that once royalty money comes in, they can reinvest or distribute in dividends 80-90% of the income stream.

The royalty business model has been very successful with gold, with companies like Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM ) or Franco Nevada (FNV ), which also usually deal with some revenues from silver as well.

Royalty companies that are more focused on silver specifically are Silver Crown Royalties (SLCRF), with royalty streams from properties all located in the Americas (mostly South America), or Vizsla Royalties (VROYF), whose main royalty stream comes from Mexico.

은 주식

Pan American Silver Corp

Investors interested in directly betting on a silver mining company might do best by finding the right mix of geographical diversification, premium mining jurisdiction, and production growth, as they are going to want to capitalize on the long-term rise of silver prices.

In that respect, Pan American Silver (PAAS ) is a solid option, having all its mines in the Americas. Not one country dominates the company’s mining activities, with the largest one (Chile) accounting for only a quarter of the whole operations.

출처: Pan American Silver Corp

Pan American Silver produced 21.1 million ounces of silver and 892,000 ounces of gold in 2024.

The company’s mineral reserves include 452 million ounces of silver and 6.3 million ounces of gold, or, at the current production rate, at least 21 years of silver reserves and 7 years of gold.

It has grown rapidly through a series of mergers and acquisitions, 가장 최근에는 Mag Silver를 21억 달러에 인수했습니다, 탐사 및 개발을 통한 유기적 성장도 함께 이루어져 현재 세계 최대 은 생산업체 중 하나가 되었습니다.

출처: Pan American Silver Corp

Since 2010, the company has dedicated 32% of its capital allocation to dividends, 7% to share buybacks ($1.1B returned to shareholders), and 47% to growth, illustrating its commitment to long-term value creation.

Future growth in the long-term could come from new projects the company already owns, but needs to build the mining infrastructures, like the Navidad deposit in Chubut, Argentina, one of the world’s largest undeveloped primary silver deposits, with up to 632 million ounces of silver.

최신 Pan American (PAAS) 주식 뉴스 및 개발