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금 부족이 사상 최고 가격 상승을 촉발
Securities.io를 Google의 선호 소스에 추가
금에 대한 흥미로운 시기
Most of the time, investors are doing well when buying productive assets, like the S&P500. However, in 2024, a strange phenomenon occurred. Despite a very strong performance from the leading index, 25% up, it was beaten by gold, achieving a 25.5% growth in price.
대부분의 경우, 투자자들은 S&P500과 같은 생산적인 자산을 구매할 때 좋은 성과를 거둡니다. 그러나 2024년에 이상한 현상이 발생했습니다. 선도 지수가 25% 상승하는 강력한 실적에도 불구하고, 금이 이를 앞서 25.5% 가격 상승을 기록했습니다.
이론적으로는 이런 일이 일어나지 않아야 합니다. 금은 누가 묻느냐에 따라 무위험 대금이거나 실용성이 전혀 없는 “야만적인 유물”이라고 여겨지기 때문입니다.
2025년 초는 금 가격이 추가 상승할 기반을 마련하고 있으며, 2025년 1월 1일 이후 가격이 11.5% 상승했습니다.
출처: Google Finance
가격 상승이 금과 관련된 유일한 소식은 아닙니다. 전 세계 금화와 금괴 판매자들은 공급 부족을 겪고 있습니다. 미국으로의 대규모 금 수입이 계속되고 있습니다. 런던에서 금을 구매하는 사람들은 거의 2개월 정도 배송을 기다려야 하며, 금고가 비었다는 소문이 돌고 있습니다.
잠재적으로 비어 있을 수 있는 금고에 대해 말하자면, 엘론 머스크와 도널드 트럼프 대통령 모두 미국의 금 보유량을 의문시하며 긴급 감사를 요구하고 있습니다.
So what is really happening, and how can investors correctly react to the gold-related news? 그럼 실제로 무슨 일이 일어나고 있는지, 투자자들은 금 관련 소식에 어떻게 올바르게 대응할 수 있을까요?
금에 대한 간략한 개요
완벽한 화폐?
Historically, gold has been one of the first currencies, and the material most consistently used as money throughout history. This is because it matches almost perfectly the ideal characteristic of something that can be used as a means of exchanging and storing value:
- 희소성과 미적 가치 때문에 귀중합니다(초기의 금 제품은 대부분 장식용이나 의식용으로, 초대 왕들을 위해 제작되었습니다).
- 산화, 부식, 부패하지 않아 매우 내구성이 뛰어납니다. 수천 년 전 채굴된 대부분의 금이 오늘날에도 여전히 유통되고 있습니다.
- 동질성(fungibility)을 가지고 있어 거의 무한히 나눌 수 있어 소액 거래에 유리합니다.
- 작고 밀도가 높아 적은 무게와 부피로도 큰 가치를 담을 수 있습니다.
- 채취가 어렵습니다: 금은 희귀하고 채굴에 많은 에너지가 소요됩니다(역사적으로는 인력, 현재는 화석 연료). 따라서 총량이 거의 변하지 않으며 매년 신규 공급이 적습니다.
- 특정 국가가 발행한 화폐가 아니기 때문에 주식, 채권, 종이화폐와 관련된 지정학적·경제적 위험에서 자유롭습니다.
화폐에서 준비금, 그리고 법정화폐로
Due to its commonly agreed status as money, alongside slightly less rare (and valuable) silver, gold has been the backbone of the world’s economy.
금은 일반적으로 화폐로 인정받아 왔으며, 은보다 약간 덜 희귀하고 가치가 있지만, 세계 경제의 근간이 되어 왔습니다.
시간이 흐르면서 금은 점차 동전 형태로 직접 교환되는 것이 줄어들었고, 정부가 발행하는 덜 귀한 금속 동전과 종이화폐의 뒷받침 역할을 하게 되었습니다. 이는 초기의 모든 종이화폐가 100% 금으로 뒷받침되는 “금본위제”에서 시작된 점진적인 전환이었습니다.
제1차 세계대전과 그 후의 경제 위기로 영국과 프랑스와 같은 많은 국가가 전쟁 자금을 마련하기 위해 금본위제를 탈퇴해야 했습니다. 제2차 세계대전 이후에는 “일시적 탈퇴”가 실제로 영구적인 것이 될 것이라는 것이 명확해졌습니다.
1944년 브레튼우드 협정은 직접 금이 아니라 금으로 뒷받침되는 달러가 국제 통화 준비금이 되도록 했습니다. 1온스 금은 35달러에 환전될 수 있었지만, 이 옵션은 기업이나 개인이 아닌 다른 국가에만 제공되었습니다.
출처: Vaulted
This system was suspended in 1971 when the costs of the Vietnam War and France asking for the conversion of its dollar reserve into gold forced the hand of US President Richard Nixon. This ultimately vindicated the famous economist Keynes’ view of gold as a “barbarous relic” destined to be phased out in industrial economies.
Since then, the international reserve currency has been the dollar, with the gold present in the world’s central banks’ vault not directly linked to the value of the currency, but more of an “insurance” against crises. You can learn more about this history in “What was the ‘Gold Standard’ and Why was it Abandoned for FIAT?”.
오늘날 금
Today, gold has no official monetary role. It has however a number of industrial roles besides its still popular use in jewelry.
예를 들어, 금은 뛰어난 열전도성 및 전기전도성, 그리고 부식에 대한 저항성 때문에 전자제품에 사용됩니다. Gold nanowires are also popular options for experimental soft electrodes 은 신경 임플란트를 포함한 이식형 의료기기에 사용되는 실험용 연성 전극으로도 인기가 있습니다.
2024년에 처음 생산된 goldene라는 2차원 금층은 그래핀과 유사한 구조를 가지고 있지만 탄소 대신 금 원자를 사용하며, 반도체 또는 초전도 특성을 가질 수 있습니다.
금은 많은 사람들에게 통화 위기에 대한 헤지 수단으로 여겨지며, 터키, 아르헨티나, 인도, 중국 등 비서구 국가들에서도 저축 수단으로 매우 인기가 있습니다.
이는 금이 공식적인 통화 역할을 하지 않음에도 불구하고, 금의 무위험 대금 특성이 전 세계 인구 대부분에게 사실상의 통화 역할을 하고 있음을 의미합니다. 특히 통화 가치 하락, 초인플레이션, 정부 자산 몰수 경험이 있는 국가에서 그렇습니다.
은 가격도 금과 동시에 상승하고 있지만 아직 2011년 최고치를 기록하지는 못했습니다.
출처: GoldPrice
이에 연간 3,300톤, 즉 연간 공급량이 1.3% 증가하는 생산량이 추가됩니다.
출처: Statista
암호화폐, 특히 비트코인의 등장은 금의 역할에 어느 정도 도전이 되었습니다. 종종 “디지털 골드”라고 불리는 비트코인은 물리적 금과 마찬가지로 고정 공급량, 동질성, 대금·관할권 위험 없음, 블록체인 원장에 의해 영구적인 내구성 등 이상적인 화폐 특성을 많이 공유합니다.
비트코인이 또 다른 준비금이 될지 혹은 금을 대체할지는 아직 불확실하며, 비트코인 채택이 얼마나 널리 퍼질지에 달려 있을 것입니다.
오늘날, 지표면 위에 존재하는 금은 약 244,000톤을 조금 넘으며, 이는 전 세계 인구 1인당 약 1온스 미만에 해당합니다.
트럼프 관세
A driver of the recent surge in gold imports in the US has been Trump’s tariffs, which could make the flow of physical gold less liquid and expensive in the near future.
예를 들어, 스위스(원광석을 금괴로 정제하는 주요 금 정제업체)에서 미국으로의 수출이 최근 몇 달 동안 절대 사상 최고치를 기록했습니다.
출처: JustDario
The LBMA (London Bullion Market Association), an over-the-counter (OTC) market comprising the London Gold Market and the London Silver Market has also experienced issues (its US equivalent is the COMEX). Deliveries now can take up to 8 weeks, despite insistence by the LBMA that physical gold stocks and liquidity of the London market “remain strong”.
“In the weeks since the U.S. election in early November, gold traders and financial institutions have moved 393 metric tonnes into the vaults of the Comex commodity exchange in New York, driving its inventory levels up nearly 75% to 926 tonnes.
증가하는 의심과 우려
While the LBMA blames logistical issues, this is failing to convince many investors and market observers, who are now wondering if the LBMA vaults contain gold at all, or if they are scrambling to find some alternative sources to keep up with a game of pretend.
Meanwhile, the location where the US gold is mostly stored, Fort Knox, is being investigated by the Trump administration.
We’re going into Fort Know to make sure the gold is there. (…) One of the things we want to look at, we hope everything is fine with Fort Knox.
If the gold isn’t there, we’re gonna be very upset.
Even Elon Musk added to the topic, with a characteristic meme, not really adding to the confidence about Fort Knox’s situation:
Source: Elon Musk
To understand why there is so little trust in the status of gold reserves in both London and the USA, we need to look at the greater context.
구축 단계
분할 금 보유량
So while some claim the tariffs are the reasons for the US imported as much gold as possible, Musk’s and Trump’s declarations indicate a wider question about gold reserves.
A key reason is the difference between the physical metal market and the financial markets for gold.
Most of the gold trading today does not involve the physical exchange of gold bars. Instead, it is the buying and selling of financial instruments developed by the LBMA and Comex to represent gold ownership. The same is true for silver markets.
In practice, this means that a lot more “paper gold” is exchanged than there is actual gold in the vaults. In that respect, this is a little like fractional reserve banking, where only a fraction of the cash stays in the bank, and most of the assets are based on trust in the financial systems.
No less than 6,000 tons of gold are traded in London every day, while the LBMA bullion bank reserve is only 100 tons. This means that over a year, 15,000x more gold is traded than physically present in the vault.
깨질 수 있을까?
In theory, fractional gold is not a problem as most of the traders are not interested in actual gold ownership, but speculation around price fluctuations. However, every gold contract can be redeemed for physical gold on demand.
With paper markets much larger than the physical markets, it would take very little delivery to “break” the gold and silver market.
Regarding central bank vaults and national reserves, a long-standing practice has been to temporarily “lend” the gold to commercial banks (and metal exchanges like the Comex and LBMA). So the question raised by Trump is to check if the gold ever comes back from these loans.
Overall, the concern is that one single gold bar from a central bank might have been loaned and reattributed to many “paper owners” at the same time. This would both reduce the price (by creating fictional “paper gold bars”) and potentially cause a run on exchanges if they are unable to deliver. Hence why, 8 weeks delivery time At the LBMA makes everyone nervous.
동부 축적
Another phenomenon has been the consistent accumulation of precious metals by Eastern countries over the past decade, with China at the top, but also Russia, India, Indonesia, SE-Asia, etc.
China’s official gold reserves are “only” at 2,280 tons. But this number is hotly debated, as many elements let analysts believe it is a gross underestimation or an outright lie.
For example, Chinese gold mines never export their production. And gold flows into the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and sees the annual withdrawal of 1,500 to 2,000 tons annually.
While some of this gold makes its way into electronics or jewelry, it has long been suspected that Chinese bank purchases of physical gold ultimately end up in the PRC’s central bank vaults.
Considering the massive trade surplus of China, this ultimately means that a significant part of the surplus in the dollar is recycled into gold instead of US bonds. And maybe China’s gold stack is in the 10,000-20,000 tons.
It raises a seemingly far-fetched, but not impossible, risk: what if Asian banks and governments took deliveries of gold lent by Western central banks to the US and British gold exchange, steadily depleting the Western reserves over the past 15 years?
This gives another angle to see currency wars between the East and West, one where the East exchanged paper money for gold bars.
출처: MerckInvestments
국제 준비금의 무기화
One last element of international context is the seizing of Russia’s international currency reserves in 2022, for a total of around $300B, following the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
This has put into question the wisdom of using US dollars as a reserve currency if your country is on less than good terms with the US. So nations like China and Iran, but also potentially many others like Turkey, India, Mexico, Indonesia, and others, have started to diversify their international assets.
This also puts in the spotlight the BRICS association, now including 11 countries and with others on a waiting list to join.
출처: Statista
The BRICS countries have been discussing reducing the use of the US dollar in their bilateral trade, something that has drawn the ire of Donald Trump:
“We are going to require a commitment from these seemingly hostile Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs.
There is no chance that BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, or anywhere else, and any Country that tries should say hello to Tariffs, and goodbye to America!”
It overall seems unlikely that the very different economies and geopolitical interests of the BRICS nations could establish an alternative currency like the Euro. However, they could be considering a settlement in gold, a neutral and apolitical reserve, for when one BRICS country accumulates too much of the other’s currency.
For example, Russia accumulates too many Indian rupees by selling its oil but not importing much from India and can then use that gold to balance its purchases from China.
국내 부채 우려
Even if ignoring the international context, there are also mounting worries about America’s financial situation regarding debt and inflation.
Here, too, we can listen to Elon Musk and President Trump’s concern about an incoming bankruptcy of the country as a milestone in such concern becoming “mainstream”.
Historically, when a country with paper “fiat” money goes bankrupt, financial assets are best protected in the form of physical assets like gold, artworks, land, etc.
When a chief adviser to the US president and also the richest man in the world warns of the potential bankruptcy of the country, it is maybe not so surprising that many investors, Americans and foreigners alike, are listening and diversifying their assets into gold.
금의 미래
LBMA와 포트 녹스에 대한 신뢰 회복
In the short term, the alleviation of concerns regarding the LBMA vault and Fort Know reserves will be the most important factor in play for gold prices.
If the reserves are adequate and proven honest, this would go a long way in reducing the speculative action around gold prices.
However, if the audit failed or even was just canceled, this could potentially create a true historical panic.
미국 부채의 금 화폐화
In the medium term, what the US will do with its (full or partial) gold reserve is an important question for gold investors.
There have been discussions of re-evaluating US gold reserves, which are still accounted at the historical price of $42/ounce instead of the current almost $3,000/ounce.
If the official reserve is truthful, this would put the value of the 8,134 tons of gold in Fort Knox and the Federal Reserve to $860B.
While massive, this is actually not that much compared to the massive $1.8T of annual deficit the US government is running, and $36.5T of debt.
So, to solve the US debt crisis by monetizing this gold, US gold reserves would need to be revalued at a much higher price, with gold prices in the 5-digit price range. Which is, of course, the dream of every gold investor.
미국 달러의 준비통화 지위
In the long term, the value of gold will likely be tied deeply to the reserve status of the US dollar.
If the dollar stays the main reserve currency and means of international trade, gold will stay the so-called barbarous relic, and its price stabilize.
If we enter a period with no country able to provide a reserve currency accepted by all, gold could be re-monetized, and a de-facto gold standard be recreated to stabilize the inevitable turmoil in a paper currency. Such a situation would create.
결론
Overall, it is not yet clear what is happening with the gold market and if the recent explosive rise in price will last.
It is nevertheless likely that no matter what, gold is going to perform well as long as the issue of the US debt is not solved, and that geopolitical tensions are running high.
Investors should, therefore, consider allocating part of their portfolio to gold and/or crypto in order to get exposure to the sector and hedge the risks linked to inflation, currency devaluation, and overall turmoil in the global financial system.
금 투자
골드 트러스트 ETF – SPDR Gold Trust
Gold trust ETFs are financial instruments trading on the financial market and holding physical gold for its investors.
SPDR은 877톤의 금을 보유하고 있으며, 이는 인도나 일본과 같은 주요 국가와 동등한 금 보유량에 해당합니다.
가치가 750억 달러에 달하는 이 ETF는 투자자들이 GLD에 지불하는 가격과 현물 금 가격 사이의 차이가 매우 적은 가장 유동성이 높은 금 ETF 트러스트입니다.
이는 실제 물리적 금(금괴나 금화) 형태로 인도받는 것보다 낮은 프리미엄이 될 수 있습니다.
ETF 규모가 크기 때문에 관리 수수료가 매우 낮으며, 비용 비율은 0.40%에 불과합니다.
So this is the closest investors can do to directly own gold without taking physical delivery. However, it does not provide any yield, as it is not an investment in productive companies’ stocks. It also does not provide any leverage against gold prices.
골드 마이너 ETF – VanEck Gold Miners ETF
If you believe that gold price will explode in price due to geopolitical or domestic crises, it could make sense to own gold producers digging more of it from the ground. The more valuable the product, the more profit the miners will make.
Because in such a crisis, gold miners might be exposed to their own geopolitical risks, like expropriation, it can be best for investors to diversify to the maximum their risk.
VanEck gold miner ETF is one of the largest gold ETFs focused on gold miners, with $14.3B of assets under management. It has a low net expense ratio of only 0.51%.
Its top 3 holdings are among the largest gold miners in the world: Newmont (NEM ), Agnico Eagle (AEM ), and Barrick Gold (ABX.TO ) (GOLD ).
출처: VanEck
This is followed by two of the largest gold royalties gold companies, Franco Nevada (FNV ) and Wheaton Precious Metal (WPM ).
Royalties companies are financial companies providing non-dilutive investment to mining companies, in exchange for a percentage of future production on a mining site.
Altogether, GDX is a good way to get exposure to gold miners while favoring the largest companies in the industry.
골드 마이너 주니어 ETF
VanEck Gold Miners ETF
If gold prices rise, markets will likely re-estimate the value of gold still in the ground at a premium.
While established large gold miners are overall safer, they are also generally priced accordingly. On the contrary, junior miners, a term used for mining companies that have yet to start production, are more speculative and risky.
This is because a lot can go wrong in the 10+ years between the start of a mining project and first production: environmental permitting can be refused, actual geology might prove less good than expected, inflation can cause construction costs to explode beyond expectation, more capital might need to be raised, diluting existing shareholders, etc.
However, if the gold prices keep rising while junior miners are building up their mines, this could prove very profitable.
Like most VanEck ETFs, net expenses fees are rather low at 0.52%.
Overall, the ETF’s holding of growth-focused smaller active gold miners means that despite its name, GDXJ is more a mid-way between a mature large gold miner ETF like GDX and an ETF fully dedicated to junior miners.
뉴몬트 코퍼레이션
NEM 가격 차트
Newmont is the world’s largest gold miner, both as measured by market capitalization and production., especially since the acquisition of Newcrest in 2023년 5월.
The Newcrest acquisition has added a lot of gold and copper reserves, mostly in the very safe jurisdictions of Canada and Australia. The company also estimated from the experience of previous mergers that it would create $500M of synergies.
Overall, Newmont is mostly active in the Americas and Australia. It has gold reserves of 134 Moz (million ounces) of gold, with another 170Moz in gold resources (likely to be found, but not yet detected).
출처: Newmont
Management estimates that production should stay stable until 2032 at least and has a long history of keeping mineral reserves up, thanks to exploration projects and new discoveries at existing mines.
In 2025, Newmont estimates it will cost it $1,620 to produce an ounce of gold, and calculated its yearly budget with a conservative $2,500/ounce of gold sold, and $80/barrel of oil (one of mining’s main variable costs).
출처: Newmont
Because of its relatively safe jurisdiction and its massive size, Newmont is a good individual stock pick among gold miners for investors looking for safety first, a good dividend, and not caring too much about production growth.
