3D-tulostus konsolidoituu valmistuksen tulevaisuuteen

Hypeistä romahdukseen ja takaisin

Additive Manufacturing, also known as ‘3D Printing’, has been an ongoing technological revolution for many years now. However, it disappointed its early supporters, who expected it to replace traditional manufacturing completely.

This misjudgment can be explained by the “hype cycle” almost always driving the adoption of new technologies. It essentially goes this way:

1. Nouseva vaihe, jossa teknologian kyvykkyyksien eksponentiaalinen kasvu saa kaiken vaikuttamaan mahdolliselta.
2. Laskusuuntainen vaihe, jossa todellisuus ja elämän rajoitukset tulevat ilmi, jolloin aiempi hype näyttää “vain haalistuneen”.
3. Hitaampi, mutta kestävämpi nousu takaisin, kun ala kypsyy ja käyttö laajenee yhä useammalle käyttäjälle ajan myötä.

This cycle was very much at play with 3D printing. What made it even more complex is that 3D printing can be done with many materials and for many applications, meaning that different sub-sections of additive manufacturing are located at different points of the hype cycle.

Vuonna 2018 Gartnerin asiantuntijakonsulttiyritys julkaisi katsauksen 3D-tulostusteollisuuteen tuolloin.

Lähde: Fabbaloo

Jälkikäteen tarkasteltuna tämä oli melko tarkka näkemys. Monet 3D-tulostusteknologiat käyvät läpi tai päättävät “pettymysten laakson”. Tämä pätee erityisesti mahdollisesti maailmaa mullistaviin teknologioihin, kuten elinten 3D-tulostukseen tai kotitalouksien 3D-tulostukseen.

At the same time, the applications that had already entered the consolidation phases, like prototyping or dental implants, now form the core revenues of most 3D printing companies.

Konsolidointi ennen lisälaajentumista

The “trough of disillusionment” is a period marked by a loss of interest in the technology that has “disappointed” investors. As a result, funding can be hard to find, and unprofitable companies tend to be absorbed by better-funded ones.

Tämä vaikutus on viime aikoina ollut täydessä voimassa 3D-tulostusteollisuudessa. Viimeisin seuraus oli Desktop Metalin osto Nano Dimensionin toimesta käteisellä $185M-$135M.

Tämä uutinen tuli säännöllisen ja sekavan alustavan konsolidoinnin päälle alalla, erityisesti Stratasysin ollessa kohteena koko vuoden 2023 aikana fuusio- tai yritysostotarjouksilla sen kolmelta suurimmalta kilpailijalta: 3D Systems, Desktop Metal ja Nano Dimension (DDD ) (NNDM ).

Vuodesta 2023-2024 epäonnistuneet ja onnistuneet yritysostot olivat itsessään tulosta edellisestä aallosta vuonna 2022, jolloin kilpailijat tekivät vähintään 22 yritysostoa pienemmistä 3D-yrityksistä pelkästään sinä vuonna.

Vaikuttaa siltä, että 3D-tulostus konsolidoituu pian nopeasti markkinaksi, jossa muutama johtaja kerää yhteen keskeiset immateriaalioikeudet ja saavuttaa kannattavuuteen tarvittavan mittakaavan.

Tyypillisesti juuri tällaisen konsolidoinnin jälkeen innovatiivinen ala poistuu “pettymysten laaksosta” ja siirtyy kestävään kasvuvaiheeseen, joka voi kestää useita vuosia tai jopa vuosikymmeniä.

So, it is worth looking at where the additive manufacturing industry is standing today, and where it will go from here.

Miten se toimii?

At its most basic, a 3D printer brings the intended material (in this case, plastic, in the shape of a long filament) to a nozzle, where it is melted and extruded on a print bed.

The nozzle keeps moving following a computer’s instruction, slowly applying the material to form the intended shape. Multiple layers allow for the object to take its 3D shape over time.

Lähde: ResearchGate

Aikaisemmilla tai edullisemmilla 3D-tulostusgeneraatioilla oli melko karkea ulkonäkö, ja jokainen kerros oli hyvin näkyvä.

Lähde: ResearchGate

Ajan myötä suutintekniikan, filamentin laadun ja materiaalin kovettumisen kehitys loi paljon sileämpiä ominaisuuksia, jotka ovat sekä toimivampia että esteettisesti miellyttävämpiä.

Lisäksi monissa järjestelmissä vaaditaan laajoja “tukirakenteita” pitämään juuri tulostettua materiaalia paikallaan, kunnes se kovettuu. Tämä voi tehdä 3D-mallin suunnittelusta monimutkaisempaa, erityisesti jos tavoitteena on minimoida mahdolliset tukirakenteet materiaalihukan välttämiseksi.

Lähde: 3D Sculplab

More advanced systems, notably with nozzles capable of movements with 6 degrees of freedom or immediate UV exposure to speed up curing/solidification, can reduce or remove the need for support structures.

Rajoitetut alkuperäiset markkinat

3D printing was initially conceived with plastic (and later resins) to produce molds and parts directly from digital 3D files without the steps required by traditional manufacturing. This was an immediate hit for the nascent additive manufacturing technology, as it bypassed the need for complex and expensive molds to produce uniquely shaped plastic pieces.

Lähde: Form Labs

This opened a few markets to the industry:

• Prototyypit, sekä nopea tuotanto ja testaus, voivat nopeuttaa kehitysprosessia ja säästää rahaa.
• Kysynnän mukaan tapahtuva tuotanto on tarpeen harvinaisten osien huoltoon ja korjaukseen tai kiireellisiin tarpeisiin.
• Harrastelutuotanto, ilman aikomusta myöhempään massatuotantoon.

These were however somewhat limited markets, in comparison to the astonishingly large revenues of the manufacturing industry of $13.5T, or 16.6% of total GDP.

This makes the current $20B 3D printing market and the $500B forecast for 2030 by ARK Invest much less outstanding, as it would imply that a mere 3.7% of global manufacturing move on from traditional methods to 3D printing.

Monia muovivaihtoehtoja

Still, each of these markets supported the development and maturation of this first generation of 3D printers. Progressively, more advanced printing techniques appeared, and more types of plastic and resins became available.

Lähde: Xometry

This includes:

• Akrilonitrili-butadieenistyreeni (ABS), materiaali, jota käytetään Lego-palikoiden sekä auton osien valmistukseen.
• Polylaktidi (PLA), biohajoava muovi, valmistettu uusiutuvasta maissitärkkelyksestä.
• Akrilonitrili-styreeniakrilaatti (ASA), samankaltainen kuin ABS, mutta parempi UV-kestävyys, mikä tekee siitä sopivamman auringonvalolle altistuville sovelluksille.
• Polyeteenitereftalaatti (PET), muovi, jota käytetään pullojen valmistukseen ja sopii yleensä parhaiten elintarvikekontaktissa oleviin tuotteisiin.
• Polykarbonaatti (PC), käytetään esimerkiksi kasvihuoneissa, arvostettu erityisesti lujuutensa ja läpinäkyvyytensä vuoksi.
• Polypropeeni (PP), tunnettu joustavuudestaan ja kulutuskestävyydestään, laajalti käytetty auto- ja tekstiilialalla.
• Korkean suorituskyvyn muovit: Polyeteerietereketoni (PEEK), polyeteeriketoni (PEKK) ja Polyeteerimidi (ULTEM®). Nämä muovit omaavat mekaanisia ominaisuuksia, jotka ovat samankaltaisia metallin kanssa, mutta ovat merkittävästi kevyempiä. Tämä tekee niistä houkuttelevia auto-, avaruus- ja lääketieteellisille teollisuudenaloille.
• Monia muita muovityyppejä, kuten polyamidit (esim. nailon), polymeriseokset (erilaisten muovien sekoittaminen samassa filamentissa), korkean iskunkestävyyden polystyreeni (HIPS), polyvinyylialkoholi (PVA) jne.

Muovista kaikkiin materiaaleihin

For a long time, the discussion around 3D printing was centered around improving the efficiency and diversity of usable plastics. The need for biodegradable plastics is also shared with the traditional plastic manufacturing industry.

This changed over time as more companies looked at additive manufacturing and realized they could apply its key principles to many other materials.

Metallien 3D-tulostus

Plastics are everywhere in the items we use. However, the use of 3D printing in the plastic industry hit the limit that most plastic items are made to be cheap and mass manufactured, with a usually simple design.

For this usage, the heavy investment in molds and automation makes sense, as millions of plastic pieces will be created. In contrast, 3D printing might forever be a little slower and more expensive on a per-unit basis.

However, metals are much more robust and have unique characteristics like high-temperature resistance, conductivity, etc.

Metals require often complex and expensive forging, stamping, and milling to achieve a desirable form. And no matter what, these methods put strong constraints on the achievable design. As a result, a lot of different parts and complex assembling is often required for items made of metal.

3D printing metal was first developed by using metal powder, which is deposited and then melted by a laser. This is the base for the two most used metal 3D printing methods:

• Selektiivinen laser sulatus (SLM), jossa metallijauheella on yksi sulamispiste ja laser sulattaa koko metallijauheen.
  • SLM tuottaa osia yhdestä metallista.
• Suora metallilaser-sinteröinti (DMLS), jossa metallijauhe koostuu materiaaleista, joilla on vaihtelevat sulamispisteet ja jotka sulautuvat molekyylitasolla kohotetuissa lämpötiloissa.
  • SMLS tuottaa osia seoksista.

The key advantage of 3D printing is that it allows for complex shapes that are impossible with traditional forging methods. This can drastically reduce the number of parts in a machine that require assembly. It can also allow new innovative designs that are stronger or use less material.

Lähde: Hubs

Metallien 3D-tulostuksen kehitys

More recently, new methods are being developed, for example Liquid Metal Printing (LMP) by MIT researchers. This method essentially merges together old-school free-form-casting with 3D printing.

This could remove the main limitation of metal 3D printing, which is that it tends to scale less well than traditional forging methods. While still keeping the advantages, like more complex possible shapes.

Overall, metal 3D printing is likely to keep growing, as it progressively demonstrates it can be as solid as forged parts while being price competitive thanks to less assembling and more efficient designs. This should consolidate metal 3D printing’s lead as the industry’s main market, currently standing at 53% of the total.

Lähde: Market.us

Komposiitti- ja hybridimateriaalien 3D-tulostus

3D printing can also be done with mixes of materials. As we can see, this can be mixed with metals in alloys or different plastics. However, it can also be done with mixes of different materials.

One such example is komposiitit, which mixes the 3D printed plastic with fibers. The additional fiber in the plastic increases the stiffness and strength of the produced part.

Most commonly, it is carbon fiber, but it can be fiberglass or kevlar.

Another option is hybridimateriaalit, mixing 3D-printed plastic with something else entirely. You can, for example, have filaments containing organic material like bamboo, cork, or wood. Alumide, made of polyamides and aluminum powder, is another example of merging plastic and metal 3D printing together.

Lähde: BitFab

The combination of different materials is a growing trend in the industry, including the recent emergence of freeform multi-material assembly process (FMAP) that uses together fused filament fabrication (FFF), direct ink writing (DIW), and freeform laser induction (FLI).

Kasvavat sovellukset

Avaruusteollisuus

One key feature of 3D-printed components is that they can leverage their more complex shapes to reduce the amount of required material for the same structural integrity, reducing total weight.

This is a very attractive proposition for the aerospace industry, with every reduced gram allowing for better performance or larger payload, be it satellites to orbit or missiles on a fighter jet.

This is notably the advantage that is pursued by a company like Relativity Space, looking to create a 3D printed rocket, the Terran-R reusable rocket.

Paikan päällä tapahtuva valmistus

Sending anything into space is expensive, as in thousands of dollars per kilo expensive. This is a problem for any long-term presence in space, as it implies that spare parts need to be sent in advance and quantity just in case something breaks.

This, in turn, increases the budget for potential moon bases or Mars colonization by an order of magnitude. Such costs would be a dead end if we ever want to see the dawn of a space-based economy, including one that could provide an unlimited supply of green energy to Earth.

An alternative would be producing things on-site, ideally using locally mined materials like carbon and metals. While the idea is not new, the need to move entire forging stations into space made it unrealistic. 3D printers could help here.

They are much more compact than traditional manufacturing methods. With a limited stockpile of raw materials, they can manufacture thousands of different parts, only when they are needed. This would dramatically reduce the amount of unused “dead weight” in any deep space mission.

It is not anymore just an idea, with a 180kg prototype metal 3D printer by the ESA tested successfully in orbit in 2024.

Another prototype, the SpaceCAL, managed to print in a weightless environment more than 60 different materials, including silicone, plastics, glass composites, biomaterials, etc.

So it is likely that the future of space exploration will be based on reusable rockets, 3D printers, and local resources mined from the Moon, Mars, or asteroids.

Terveydenhuolto

Besides industrial prototypes and parts, a large revenue driver of the maturing additive manufacturing industry is the medical segment.

This is because, by their very nature, medical implants like dental or hip replacements need to be custom-designed for each patient. This is a key factor in keeping these treatments expensive, as there is no possibility of mass manufacturing an identical part for everyone.

This includes implants for the ear or mouth/teeth, but also 3D printed replacement “parts” for cancer patients or after a trauma like a jaw, rib cage, or part of the skull.

Lähde: 3D Natives

We also recently saw the first 3D-printed silicon heart valves, customized microporous bones, breast implants, etc.

Lähde: 3D Natives

Another role 3D printing could play in healthcare is in creating new forms of diagnostics and analysis.

For example, “organ-on-a-chip” & “body-on-a-chip” are now used to simulate a real body, in order to reduce the failure rate of clinical trials.

Lähde: Harvard

Another possibility is 3D printed drugs, allowing for more personalized healthcare, combining drugs, and reducing supply chain issues.

Biotulostus ja pehmeä robotiikka

The next step could be that instead of 3D printing the replacement of bones and organs by parts manufactured with metal, ceramics, and silicon, we directly “print” with living cells to create fully functional tissues and organs.

This is the promise of bioprinting. We explored in detail in a previous article how it works and what companies could benefit the most from it.

This could extend beyond internal organs and even include the bioprinting of brains, with already small cerebral organoids used by researchers on Alzheimer’s to study how brain tissues react to potential treatment. In the same way, neurons can be “printed” to create an artificial retina:

3D printing could also be used to generalize the field of “soft robotics”, by allowing machines to imitate biology (biomimetics). This could create safer and more functional robotic systems.

Puolijohteet ja laskenta

Metal 3D printing can be done for implants or reactor jet parts, but it can also be done at a much smaller scale.

This opened the way to 3D printing with conductive or dielectric inks & ceramics. One leader of this technology is Nano Dimension, now also the owner of the metal 3D printing company Desktop Metal.

Nano Dimensions claims it can reduce the ecological footprint of manufacturing, with a reduction of 94% in CO2 emissions, 100% in water, 98% in materials, and 82% in chemicals.

Further progress is to be expected in 3D printed electronics, notably with the recent publication by researchers of flexible memory through “Liquid Metal Memory”.

Betonin 3D-tulostus

Instead of going smaller, additive manufacturing can also go bigger. A lot bigger when it comes to 3D printing entire houses and large buildings. For example, the first-ever 3D-printed mosque opened in 2024 in Saudi Arabia.

As you can imagine, the scale of the nozzle and the 3D printer is off the chart when it comes to such a project.

Lähde: Cornell University

3D-printed buildings require a lot less labor and could come out significantly cheaper, as we discussed in our article “Home Ownership is More Prohibitive than Ever Before in North America – Can 3D Printing Change This?”

This new method for construction could have applications beyond Earth:

The company ICON has been selected by NASA for Project Olympus, a $57.2M contract for a 3D printing system to create on the Moon landing pads, roadways, non-pressurized structures, and pressurized habitats, using local regolith (Moondust) instead of imported from Earth materials. The same method could be used for Martian habitats as well.

Lähde: ICON

Lisävalmistuksen tulevaisuus

Teknologian parantaminen

Traditional manufacturing has gradually improved over the more than two centuries of the Industrial Revolution, or even longer when it comes to metallurgy.

So, it is perhaps not surprising that 3D printing is still only starting to realize its full potential.

Ongelman havaitseminen

For example, metal parts for the aerospace industry often need to be X-rayed to determine if the printing worked properly without defects. This is both expensive and slows down production. Instead, researchers found that AI deep learning combined with CT scans can work.

Meanwhile, a technique called acoustic monitoring (detecting through sound a problem) could help detect defects in real-time.

Uudet tuotantomenetelmät

Among potential improvements, we could replace the currently used two-photon polymerization (TPP), requiring dual femtosecond laser for micron-scale industrial prints. As TPP is expensive, the discovery that lower-power lasers could perform equally well could grow the market further for 3D printing of microelectronics.

So far, almost all methods rely on using a solid (filament) or a powder and then melting it. However, new 3D printing ideas are still emerging, notably vapor-induced phase-separation 3D printing (VIPS-3D). This method could be very powerful for complex part mixing material or requiring variable levels of porosity. It would also require a lot less materials and less power, reducing costs.

4^th teollinen vallankumous ja hajautettu valmistus

3D printing has, for a long time, been the reserved domain of industrial experts and passionate hobbyists. It also required a significant upfront investment, with the risk of the acquired machines being too many or too few compared to real needs, leading to capital inefficiency.

This is less and less true, thanks to large service providers offering the usage of 3D printers as well as skilled labor as a service. This pools together the resources of many different users, smoothing the peak in demand for the 3D printers.

These providers often combine the 3D printing services with CNC machining (Computer Numerical Control), 3D scanning, 3D design, etc.

The rented machine could even be accessed directly by the user through the cloud in some cases.

Meanwhile, researchers in various fields like biology or chemistry are discovering that you might sometimes replace a $100,000 part in a mass spectrometer with a part 3D printed directly in the lab costing only a few dollars.

Overall, we are likely to see a growing flexibility of the supply chain, as well as more delocalized manufacturing emerging from the generalization of 3D printing.

This will make additive manufacturing a key component of the ongoing 4^th industrial revolution, together with AI, robotics, smart factories, connectivity, IoT, etc.

Sijoittaminen 3D-tulostukseen

3D printing is only now reaching technological maturity, as well as market consolidation. This gives investors a little more visibility than in the past and confirms that this technology is far from a fad but is here to stay.

You can invest in 3D-printing-related companies through many brokers, and you can find on this website our recommendations for the best brokers in the USA, Canada, Australia, the UK, as well as many other countries.

Besides the companies discussed below, you can also find potential investing ideas in our article “Top 10 Nanotechnology Stocks”.

If you are not interested in picking specific 3D printing companies, you can also look into ETFs like ARK Invest 3D Printing ETF (PRNT) to capitalize on the growth of the additive manufacturing sector as a whole.

3D-tulostusyritykset

(Lisäksi alla käsiteltyjen yritysten lisäksi voit lukea muista artikkelissamme “Top 10 Additive Manufacturing And 3D Printing Stock to Watch” )

1. Nano Dimension

Useimmat lisävalmistusyritykset keskittyvät metalliin ja muoviin, tarkkaillen monimutkaisia mekaanisia osia. Nano Dimension sen sijaan keskittyy 3D-tulostettuihin elektroniikoihin. Tämä sisältää erittäin erikoistuneita teknologioita, kuten johtavia tai dielektrisiä musteita ja keraamisia materiaaleja. Näitä voidaan esimerkiksi käyttää optisten tai radiokomponenttien rakentamiseen.

Tämä on yksi mahdollinen 3D-tulostuksen sovellus nanoskaalassa, jota tarkastelimme tarkemmin artikkelissa “Nanoscale 3D Printing Looks Primed for Commercialization”.

Nano Dimension on kasvanut yritysostojen ja sisäisen T&K:n yhdistelmän kautta.

Lähde: Nano Dimensions

Tämä strategia saavuttaa uuden huipun Desktop Metalin yritysostolla vuonna 2024. Yhdessä kaksi yritystä saavat paljon vahvemman aseman metallin ja keraamisten 3D-tulostusten saralla kaikilla mittakaavoilla, elektroniikasta suuriin teollisuuslaitteisiin ja avaruusteollisuuteen.

Tämä luo myös mittakaavaetuja yhdistämällä asiakaskunnan, johon kuuluvat SpaceX (SPCX ), Tesla (TSLA ), GE, Honeywell, Emerson, Raytheon, NASA, Medtronics jne.

Lopuksi, kaksi yritystä olivat pääasiassa aktiivisia eri maantieteellisillä alueilla, Nano Dimension Euroopassa ja Desktop Metal Yhdysvalloissa, mikä mahdollistaa synergian myyntitiimien yhdistämisen.

Lähde: Nano Dimension

Yritys väittää, että se voi vähentää valmistuksen ekologista jalanjälkeä, vähentäen CO2-päästöjä 94 %, veden käyttöä 100 %, materiaalien kulutusta 98 % ja kemikaalien käyttöä 82 %.

Kaiken kaikkiaan voimme odottaa Nano Dimensionin nousevan teknologian johtajaksi.

Lähde: Nano Dimensions

However, investors need to be aware that both per-acquisition Nano Dimension and Desktop Metal were cash flow negative, so the resulting company will need to cut costs or grow sufficiently to turn a profit in the future.

2. 3D Systems Corporation

3D Systems voi tulostaa 130 materiaalia, tuottaen yli miljoona osaa päivittäin. Vuoden 2023 neljännen neljänneksen aikana se toimitti 5 uutta materiaalia ja 3 tulostinpäivitystä.

Vuonna 2023 liikevaihto laski hieman, johtuen ortodontian ja hammassegmenttien supistumisesta, jonka aiheutti kuluttajien vähentynyt kulutus. Tämä kompensoitiin osittain vahvalla kasvulla avaruusteollisuudessa, koruissa ja muissa segmenteissä.

Se työskentelee myös 3D-biotulostusteknologian parissa, jota voitaisiin käyttää synteettisten elinten luomiseen, tavoitteena vuoden 2026 ihmiskoe keuhkosiirrossa. Kohdemarkkinan arvioidaan olevan $4 miljardia.

Yritys jatkaa edistymistään tällä alalla, erityisesti tulostaen monimutkaisimman koskaan 3D-tulostetun kohteen (ihmisen keuhkokehikko) ja organ-on-a-chip -ratkaisun täysin omistamansa tytäryhtiön Systemic Bio kautta (sopimus kahden neljästä suurimmasta lääkeyhtiöstä).

Lähde: 3D Systems

Aikaisemmat (ja tulevat?) fuusiot

The 2023 tentative for a merger with Stratasys was rejected by its shareholders. It is however yet to be seen if the recent merger of Nano Dimension and Desktop Metal creates some urgency for its competitors to merge into an even larger company.

If no more mergers among the largest 3D printing companies occur, it is likely that the industry will drift toward an oligopoly of 3 companies: 3D Systems, Stratasys, and Nano Dimension, with smaller actors like Velo3D and Markforged forced to either merge with each other or be absorbed by one of the “big 3”.