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다른 수소 연료 – 상위 5개 친환경 암모니아 주식
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액체 연료를 대체하려는 탐구
As renewable energies progress, some limitations are becoming clearer. The intermittency of renewables requires the presence of energy storage. This could be in the form of batteries, as we explored in our article “The Future Of Energy Storage – Utility-Scale Batteries Tech”.
하지만 일부 에너지 소비 형태는 전기화에 매우 저항합니다. 예를 들어, 장거리 해상 운송이나 항공 화물 등이 있습니다.
트럭 역시 배터리 무게와 배터리 생산 능력의 제한 때문에 아직 전기차(EV)로 전환되지 못했습니다; 이는 테슬라 세미가 수년간 지연된 이유이기도 합니다.
대부분 이러한 제한은 휘발유/디젤/등유가 배터리보다 훨씬 높은 에너지 밀도를 가지고 있기 때문입니다.
(TSLA )따라서 석유 제품을 대체할 수 있는 액체 연료에 대한 아이디어는 매우 매력적입니다. 하나의 아이디어는 바이오연료이며, 이는 재생 가능한 원천에서 화석 연료와 동일한 제품을 생산합니다. 우리는 이 아이디어를 우리 기사 “Algal Biofuel: The Next Energy Revolution?“에서 탐구했습니다.
또 다른 아이디어는 우주에서 가장 풍부한 원소인 수소를 에너지 저장에 활용하는 것입니다. 그러나 기체 수소는 생산 비용, 액화·운송·저장 에너지 비용 등 여러 제한이 있습니다.
Hydrogen atoms do not need to be in the form of H2 gas to be storing energy. Another extremely abundant element, nitrogen, forming 4/5th of our atmosphere, can help.
암모니아를 에너지 운반체로 활용
간단한 화학
Ammonia, or NH3, is a fertilizer and can be burned or oxidized to produce nitrogen and water.
NH3 +O2 → N2 + H2O
따라서 이상적인 조건에서는 수소 연소와 유사하게 무해한 부산물만을 생성합니다(이에 대해서는 나중에 자세히 다룹니다).
수소와의 차이점은 암모니아가 H2보다 훨씬 큰 분자이며 훨씬 더 안정적이라는 점입니다. 이는 운송 및 저장을 훨씬 용이하게 합니다. 또한 암모니아는 액체 수소보다 약 50% 더 높은 에너지 밀도를 가지고 있습니다.
Hydrogen liquefaction wastes 44.7% of the energy it contains, as it requires cooling at -253°C (-423°F). Keeping it liquid leads to more losses, increasing with the duration of storage, potentially up to 79% losses for seasonal storage.
“암모니아는 대기압에서 -33°C 이하로 냉각하거나 20°C에서 7.5바 이상으로 가압하면 액화할 수 있습니다—이는 수소가 요구하는 조건보다 훨씬 실현 가능합니다. 이 과정은 거의 99% 효율에 이를 수 있습니다”.
기존 인프라
Ammonia is not a rarely produced chemical, with it being a key component in the production of fertilizer, but also plastics and explosives. This means there is already an existing industry and supply chain for the mass production of ammonia, although somewhat dependent on fossil fuels for now. It also makes it a well-understood and efficient process. Overall, ammonia is the second most highly produced chemical in the world.
Ideally, an ammonia economy would rely on so-called green ammonia, generated from renewable energy. This distinguished it from other types of ammonia:
- Grey/brown ammonia: produced from fossil fuels.
- Blue ammonia: produced from fossil fuels, but with carbon capture.
- Pink ammonia (sometimes also called yellow ammonia): produced from nuclear energy.
- Turquoise ammonia: produced from the pyrolysis of methane. This breaks down methane into hydrogen and solid carbon, with the hydrogen later converted to ammonia. The solid carbon can be stored or used for applications like carbon fibers.
And while a lot less extensive than the fossil fuels network, there is no less than 5,000 km (3,100 miles) of ammonia pipeline in the US (and 490,000 km of high-pressure natural gas pipelines). With ammonia being non-corrosive and not damaging steel pipes like hydrogen (“embrittlement ”), new pipelines could be relatively inexpensive.
하지만 이는 생산 능력과 파이프라인 모두에 대한 대규모 투자를 필요로 합니다. 전 세계 천연가스 소비량의 절반만을 암모니아로 대체하려면 전 세계 암모니아 생산량을 20배 확대해야 합니다.
채택하는 정확한 솔루션에 따라, 암모니아는 에너지 저장·전송 시스템으로서 84%‑38% 사이의 효율(반환 에너지)을 가질 수 있습니다.
암모니아의 제한점
The problem with using ammonia directly for energy is that combustion is seldom a perfectly efficient process. When ammonia is impartially burned, it produces NOx gases, which are toxic, as well as greenhouse gases (300x more potent than CO2).
Several solutions have been proposed, including:
- Burning green ammonia in a fuel blend, in combination with fossil fuel.
- Burning green ammonia in a fuel blend, in combination with hydrogen.
- Converting liquid ammonia to compressed hydrogen directly on the storage site, and on-demand, like at a fuel station. A process named “cracking”.
- Using dedicated fuel cells, like for hydrogen, to directly generate electricity and power an electric motor.
- Using catalyst to destroy NOx before they are released. This could cause some problems as these catalysts often are extremely expensive metals like Palladium, Platinum, and Rhodium, which are already used to reduce NOx emissions in fossil-fuel-powered vehicles. A purely ammonia-based combustion would require a lot more of it.
As NOx are powerful greenhouse gases, making sure we don’t see them replacing CO2 is a must to justify transitioning to an ammonia economy.
암모니아를 수소 운반체로 활용
As mentioned above, ammonia (NH3) can be “cracked” back into nitrogen (N2) and hydrogen (H2). This means that even if the issue of NOx emission proves unsolvable, there is still potential for an ammonia economy.
이러한 맥락에서 암모니아는 저장·운송에 직접 사용되며, 일부 특수 분야에서도 활용됩니다. 그리고 가스 형태(압축 포함)로 수소로 전환되어 차량을 직접 연소하거나 연료전지에 공급됩니다.
This allows the decarbonized economy to enjoy a few key benefits of ammonia’s physical and chemical characteristics:
- Lower energy losses during the production of the liquid fuel, while still using green energy to do so.
- Low-cost renewable energy during periods of overproduction (strong sun & wind) can be used to reduce the overall fuel production costs.
- The possibility of multi-month storage, allowing for resiliency in the energy system, is somewhat of a must for mobility. For example, a hurricane knocking off the power grid would not stop the supply chain, ambulances, and cars from running, as it might for a fully EV-centric system.
- The multi-month storage also allows for excess production in sunny or windy months to be turned into fuel supply for months with lower renewable energy production.
So it is possible that talking of an ammonia economy or a hydrogen economy might be a little misleading.
A more likely scenario is a mixed ammonia-hydrogen economy, with each technology leveraged to perform best on its strong points:
- Ammonia for transportation, long-term storage, and “soaking up” the surplus energy of sunny or windy days.
- Hydrogen for direct consumption, short-term storage, and applications requiring quick & high energy output, like steel production or jet engines.
This is a scenario where nuclear power plants could also play a role in decarbonization, even without mass adoption of EVs, thanks to “pink ammonia” providing a low-carbon source of liquid fuel.
암모니아 경제로 가는 길
The road map for ammonia adoption is a little harder to determine. Some research estimates that an ammonia-driven economy, using mass production of green ammonia (2nd generation), is unlikely before 2030.
In this scenario, more efficient ammonia production relying on direct electroreduction (3rd generation) would take over only at the end of the 2030s, due to the technology being today in its early stages, especially efficient electrocatalysts.
출처: Science Direct
Overall, there are massive hopes for green ammonia growth, with some estimates considering the current $300M market could turn into a giant $17.9B market, or an astonishing 72.9% CAGR by 2030.
상위 5대 친환경 암모니아 주식
This list looks to focus on green ammonia or green hydrogen companies. But current leaders in ammonia generation, like for example CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF ) (CF) or Yara International ASA (YAR.OL) are likely to turn to green ammonia in due time and might be an option as well.
1. Aker Horizons ASA (AKH.OL)
Aker Horizon is the subsidiary of the Aker group centered around green energy. The group is an important Norwegian conglomerate, with a focus on renewables and marine/offshore businesses.
출처: Aker
Aker Horizon is the holding company for several subsidiaries including carbon capture, green hydrogen, and renewable energies.
출처: Aker
The company is notably very active in hydrogen and green ammonia generation, with a goal to decarbonize Arctic shipping.
출처: Aker
So Aker is not a purely green ammonia company but can handle the entire vertical integration of green ammonia, from offshore windmills to hydrogen generation to green ammonia production. It is also working on projects like waste-to-energy in France, a biomass plant in Germany, and carbon capture in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia and UAE).
This makes it a good stock for investors looking for exposure to the green energy sector at large, with a strong positioning on green ammonia, but also other green energies, and some geographical diversification.
2. Plug Power Inc. (PLUG)
Plug Power (PLUG ) is a leader in green hydrogen, with a focus on fuel cells. Notably, its fuel cells power over 40,000 forklifts, with revenues up x8 since 2013. It is also active in building hydrogen infrastructure like hydrogen production, logistics, utility-scale power generation, and deliveries.
출처: Plug Power
The company is aiming for scale to reduce production costs from $10/kg to $4/kg, while multiplying production by 14x in 2027.
출처: Plug Power
Due to massive investments to increase production capacity 19x since 2020, the company is not profitable yet. This led to almost doubling revenue from the beginning to the end of 2023. Most of the current and projected business is expected to come from North America.
The company sees its solution as either a direct mobility fuel, or a complement to EVs, as hydrogen allows to reduce the pressure on the grid of EVs peak charging not matching the times of production of renewables in the day.
출처: Plug Power
As a major fuel cell producer, Plug Power would benefit strongly from a turn toward a hydrogen/ammonia-based economy. While not directly active in ammonia production, the company is mostly focused on green hydrogen production (required for green ammonia production) and fuel cells, both components that would be still in high demand in case hydrogen alone is not working out.
So this makes Plug Power a good stock to bet on a turn toward hydrogen in general, with or without ammonia. If the limitation of hydrogen regarding logistics and storage turns out to be un-surmountable, it would still profit from a hydrogen+ammonia economy.
3. Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP)
Ballard is another fuel cell manufacturer, and a pioneer of the technology with its first fuel cell bus in 1993.
The company is focused on heavy-duty markets: buses, trucks, trains/trams, ships, mining/construction, and power. While buses have been the core of the business, the company expects that by 2025 trucks will be a major business segment. It also expects Europe to stay its main market (50-60%), followed by North America (25%).
Trucking fuel cells are expected to keep growing and represent a $7.5B market in 2030 (from a $195B TAM), almost as large as all the other hydrogen/fuel cell applications combined.
출처: Ballard
Because of the higher power required, and the need for quick charging, heavy-duty vehicles have been a good pick for hydrogen and fuel cells over lighter vehicles like cars. It also reduces the need for catenary wire for rail, and fast recharging for long-distance hauling.
출처: Ballard
The company is not a stranger to ammonia either, with for example a recent contract with Amogy to provide it with fuel cells for its “ammonia-to-power platform which relies on unique ammonia cracking technology”.
While EVs have a reasonable chance to quickly take over the car markets, heavier vehicles are harder to decarbonize. With its established leadership in the sector, Ballard would be a prime beneficiary of a policy push toward a hydrogen economy.
4. FuelPositive Corporation (NHHHF)
FuelPositive has created a modular/containerized green ammonia generation system. Its first target is the agricultural sector, allowing for on-site ammonia production with locally produced energy. The system can generate up to 300kg/day, 100 tons per year of ammonia for CA$950,000.
출처: Fuel Positive
This makes it a system fits for farms up to 1,800 acres. With just 1.5 acre of land covered with solar panels enough to power the ammonia generation.
출처: Fuel Positive
FuelPositive claim its system can produce ammonia for CA$560/ton, which is in line with historical price, and more importantly, would shield farmers from the extreme price volatility they experienced in the last few years, with ammonia shooting up to $1350/ton at one point.
출처: BusinessAnalitIQ
The start-up is at an early stage, with full-scale production scheduled for 2025, and 30 orders confirmed so far, with the first delivery scheduled for 2024년 3월.
The main strength of FuelPositive is the modularity of its technology, allowing for a more distributed approach and standardized mass production of its ammonia generation module.
The company is building a partnership with Cipher Neutron, which can produce hydrogen without any metal of the platinum group.
While the primary focus is fertilizer production, the ammonia could be used to power farming engines with energy produced on-site, depending on the speed of adoption of ammonia/hydrogen-powered farming tools.
The decentralized and modular nature of FuelPositive systems could also make them a key element of a future ammonia economy. The fertilizer market can provide the gap for the company to grow until the use of hydrogen and ammonia is more widespread.
5. AmmPower Corp. (AMMPF)
AmmPower is similar to FuelPositive in that it provides modular ammonia generation systems, but at a larger scale, with its base module able to produce 4 tons/day. This put the company more into the field of very large farms (10,000+ acres) or industrial operations like textiles, refrigeration, mining, pharmaceuticals, or semiconductors.
출처: AmmPower
The company is in the process of building its order book, with the near-term booking potential estimated at $30M, and sale prospects for 690 units from 52 countries.
The company estimates the electricity cost to be around $360/ton of ammonia.
The modularity of the system allows for a quick turnaround and deliveries, with less than a year compared to the 3-4 years of similar projects without the modular approach.
It is also working on technology to transform waste into ammonia, in a joint venture with CTEC Energy Sales USA.
To further the progress of ammonia into a hydrogen-ammonia economy, it is creating a dedicated subsidiary dedicated to cracking ammonia into hydrogen, which will look for additional funding separately.
By striking the scale that might fit most industrial usage, as well as very large farms, AmmPower is aiming for clients and companies with deeper access to capital than most. Combined with ammonia cracking technology, this could allow it to scale up quickly following policies to push for the development of hydrogen as an energy carrier.
