원자재
Pan American Silver (PAAS): 저비용 온스, 글로벌 은 상승 전망
2025년 은의 교차로
Precious metals, especially gold, have historically held a special place in the monetary system, as the foundation of “softer” forms of money like non-precious metal coins, paper bills, and digital ledgers.
이 역할은 1971년 달러 전환성 종료와 비트코인과 같은 신뢰할 수 있는 대안의 등장으로 약화되었습니다.
그럼에도 불구하고 금은 최근 몇 년간 국제 긴장이 우크라이나 전쟁 발발과 미국 부채 증가에 따라 폭발적으로 상승하면서 거의 모든 다른 투자보다 뛰어난 성과를 보였습니다.
출처: GoldPrice
금의 “경질 통화”에 대한 동반자는 언제나 은이었으며, 회색 금속은 오랜 기간 동전 제작에 동일하게 사용되었습니다.
하지만 인플레이션, 지정학, 통화 혼란에 대한 우려는 은에 대한 이야기의 일부에 불과합니다.
역사적으로 주로 보석과 동전 제작에 사용되던 금속이 오늘날에는 전자제품에 필수적인 산업용 금속이자, 태양광 패널 생산이 은 수요의 주요 동력이 되는 녹색 에너지 혁명의 초석이 되었습니다.
또 다른 이야기는 신규 은 채굴이 수요를 따라가지 못해 시간이 지날수록 재고가 고갈되고 있다는 점입니다.
마지막으로, 금과 은이 전 세계 통화 시스템에서 직접적인 통화 역할을 상실한 이후 은-금 비율은 변동성을 보이며 은이 금보다 덜 귀중해졌습니다. 만약 은이 다시 투자 목적으로 사용된다면 이 상황은 바뀔 수 있습니다.
While not as widely discussed or valuable as gold, silver may have as much, if not more, upside potential than the yellow metal.
귀금속을 넘어선 은 수요
While a surge in demand for investment purposes is likely the cause of silver prices rising in 2025, it is also increasingly a crucial metal for industrial purposes as the world electrifies.
은은 열 및 전기 전도성 면에서 모든 화학 원소 중 최고이기 때문에 태양광 패널, 배터리, 인버터 및 퓨즈·릴레이와 같은 전기 장치에 필수적인 소재입니다.
전자제품, 부식 방지 납땜, 의료용 붕대 및 소독제도 은 수요의 나머지를 차지합니다.
따라서 은이 재통화되지 않더라도, 전기화·디지털화에 따른 수요 증가와 생산 정체·수요 초과 상황만으로도 투자 논리를 충분히 만들 수 있습니다.
출처: Mining.com
은 채굴주에 투자하는 방법 (위험 & 상승 가능성)
Investors interested in betting on silver can look at silver mining companies. As silver miners make most of their money from the differential between production costs and spot price, sufficiently rising silver prices can double, triple, or more their operating margins.
그 결과 은 채굴주는 “내재된 레버리지”를 비즈니스 모델에 포함하고 있어 변동성 확대 시 위험과 기회가 동시에 증대됩니다. 이는 현금 보유고와 마진 콜 같은 전통적인 레버리지 베팅의 함정이 없습니다.
은 매장량은 지구 전역에 고르게 분포되어 있지 않으며, 가장 큰 광상 자원은 라틴아메리카, 특히 멕시코, 페루, 칠레에 집중돼 있습니다. 중국, 러시아, 중앙아시아, 호주, 미국에서도 생산이 활발합니다.
출처: Mining Visuals
상위 생산국 중 일부는 매장량이 집중돼 있는데, 특히 멕시코는 여러 초대형 매장량을 보유하고 있으며 전 세계 상위 20대 은 광산 중 10곳이 멕시코에 있습니다.
출처: Mining Visuals
이러한 집중도는 투자자에게 위험을 안겨줍니다. 한 국가나 한 광산에 과도하게 의존하면 재앙적인 결과를 초래할 수 있습니다. 예를 들어 2023년 파나마 정부가 주요 구리 광산을 폐쇄하면서 First Quantum Minerals 주가가 급락한 사례가 있습니다.
출처: Google Finance
지질학적 문제나 광산 붕괴와 같은 재난도 정치적 위험과 무관하게 발생할 수 있습니다.
따라서 가장 좋은 전략은 여러 주식에 분산 투자하거나 채굴 관련 ETF를 활용해 위험을 분산하는 것입니다.
(이러한 전략에 대한 자세한 내용은 우리 보고서 “Investing In Silver: Diving Deeper into Demand, Deficits, and Risks”를 참고하십시오.)
또 다른 옵션은 다수의 광산을 보유하고 있는 대형 채굴 기업에 투자하는 것입니다. 이렇게 하면 어느 한 국가에 과도하게 의존하지 않으며, 서구 친화적인 국가에만 노출되는 것이 바람직합니다. 세계는 지정학적 블록으로 재편되고 있기 때문입니다.
이 가운데 은에 대한 회복이 이루어질 경우 가장 큰 혜택을 받을 수 있는 기업은 바로 Pan American Silver Corp입니다.
(PAAS )
Pan American Silver (PAAS): 발자국 & 2024 생산량
Pan American Silver is one of the world’s largest silver miners, with some activity in gold mining as well, either from smaller gold mines or as a byproduct of silver mining (both metals are often intermingled in the Earth’s crust ores.
회사의 광산은 모두 아메리카 대륙에 위치해 있으며, 생산량의 대부분은 남미에서 나옵니다.
특정 국가가 회사의 채굴 활동을 독점하지 않으며, 가장 큰 국가인 칠레조차 매출의 1/4에 불과합니다. 그 뒤를 페루와 브라질이 잇고, 멕시코는 매출의 13%만 차지합니다.
회사는 2024년에 은 2,110만 온스와 금 89만 2천 온스를 생산했습니다.
The company’s mineral reserves include 452 million ounces of silver and 6.3 million ounces of gold, or, at the current production rate, at least 21 years of silver reserves and 7 years of gold.
PAAS 자산: 활성, 비활성 & 선택권
활성 은 광산
Overall, the silver segment of Pan American Silver had an AISC of $18.98 / ounce in 2024, a number that should decrease after MAG’s acquisition (see below).
Among the main silver mines of the company can be mentioned a few:
- La Colorada, in Mexico, the company’s largest silver mine, with 90.7 million ounces in reserve, of which 52.7 million ounces were discovered recently.
- La Colorada Skarn, an adjacent deposit that could contain as much as ~265.4 Mt of mineralized material (not silver metal), and a PEA that outlines ~17.2 Moz of silver per year over the first decade at ~50,000 tpd, with a 17-year mine life.
- Huaron, in Peru, with 40.7 million ounces in reserves.
- Cerro Moro in Argentina & San Vicente in Bolivia with combined reserves of 16.4 million ounces.
비활성 프로젝트: Escobal (Guatemala) & Navidad (Argentina)
- Escobal, described by the company as “One of the world’s best silver mines“, with 264 million ounces in reserve and a very low AISC ($8-$9 / ounce), but which stopped producing in 2016 due to suspension by the Guatemalan government over the rights of the local ethnic minority.
- When in operation from 2014 to 2017, the mine produced approximately 20 million ounces of silver annually.
- It was acquired from Tahoe Resources in 2019, making it a high-risk bet for Pan American Silver, but a potential opportunistic acquisition if it can be restarted.
- Discussions of a restart are likely still going to be stalled by local opposition for now, making it a “dead” asset until something changes.
- Navidad, in Chubut, Argentina, is one of the world’s largest undeveloped primary silver deposits, with up to 632 million ounces of silver.
- The Province of Chubut passed a law in 2003 (“Law 5001”) that prohibits open-pit mining and the use of cyanide in mineral processing in the entire province, effectively preventing the development of Navidad. To date, this law remains in place.
Overall, investors should count only the existing mines, and value the stopped mines like Navidad and Escobal with a very steep discount, counting on these mines to be restarted only in conditions where silver prices and supply deficit are so high that local governments are more likely to revise their position and look to profit from a restart.
They do, however, represent a valuable optionality on the upside, especially Escobal, as this is a fully developed mine still kept in care and maintenance, which could be restarted very quickly if legally possible (Navidad would take a lot longer to develop).
금 광산
While not central to the company, gold production happens in many of its silver mines, as the extraction of silver from the ore also yields some gold as well.
Still, it has a few gold mines as well:
- Jacobina, in Brazil, with 3.1 million ounces of gold in reserve and 196,700 ounces produced in 2024, or 16 years of reserve life at current production levels.
- Shahuindo, in Peru, with 977,000 ounces of gold in reserve. Pan American Silver considers that exploration potential exists to increase the mine life, beyond the mere 7 years left at the current production rate. The very low AISC ($1,371 / ounce) makes keeping the mine running through more exploration interesting.
- Timmins, in Ontario, Canada, with 846,000 ounces in reserves, but with a high AISC ($2,023).
- El Peñon, in Chile, with 626,000 ounces of gold in reserve and has historically produced 3.9 million ounces of silver as well.
- Minera Florida in Chile & Dolores in Mexico, with a combined reserve of 289,300 ounces of gold.
개발, 로열티 & 투자
Besides its main active mines, Pan American Silver also has a few royalty payments from other mines, meaning it gets a part of future production, generally in exchange for providing capital in the past for developing these mines.
It also has ownership in a few other projects:
- A 65% interest in Radius Gold’s high-grade Amalia Project located in the State of Chihuahua, Mexico. Pan American Silver may earn an additional 10% by advancing the project to pre-feasibility.
- A 6% undiluted interest in New Pacific Metals Corp.(NEWP ), providing it with exposure to the Silver Sand property, located in the Potosi department of Bolivia.
- La Bolsa (Sonora, Mexico) and Pico Machay (Huancavelica, Peru) at an advanced stage of development, for now held on “care and maintenance” (mining industry term for a mine that could be reactivated, but is for now inactive).
MAG 거래 & Juanicipio: 저비용 온스 추가
Recently, Pan American Silver has jumped in the ranking of global silver miners, with the acquisition of Mag Silver for $2.1B. The deal involving shares and cash resulted in an ownership in Pan American of approximately 86% for previous Pan American shareholders and 14% for MAG shareholders.
The center of this deal is the Juanicipio mine in Mexico, owned at 44% by MAG, and 56% by the other large silver miner, Mexican Fresnillo (FNLPF).
The mine is one of the largest ever discovered silver deposits, with the world’s highest silver production for a primary silver mine (to distinguish from large silver production from copper mega-mines, for example).
This scale makes the mine remarkably cheap to operate. Its AISC (All-In Sustainable Cost), a measure of “real” costs of mining including capex costs, is among the lowest quartile of all silver mines in the world.
This reduces Pan American Silver’s overall AISC from the relatively high $17.25 / ounce of silver to $14.03 / ounce (silver has been trading >$40/ounce in 2025년 9월).
출처: Bullion Vault
By adding 6.6 to 7.3 million ounces of silver production for 2025, the acquisition of MAG is firmly putting Pan American Silver in the #2 spot of global silver miners, and the #1 when it comes to internationally diversified silver miners.
2010년 이후 현금 흐름 & 자본 배분
The recent MAG acquisition has placed Pan American Silver in a category of its own when it comes to annual free cash flow, ahead of all other silver miners, except for Fresnillo. Combined with rising silver prices, it gives the company a radically different financial profile when compared to 2018
채굴은 매우 자본 집약적인 사업이므로, 적절한 자본 배분은 주주 장기 이익에 필수적이며 이는 시간이 지나야 평가될 수 있습니다.
이는 새로운 광산 착공, 광산 연장 및 인수와 같은 투자 결정을 적절한 시기에 포함해야 함을 의미합니다. 그러나 성장에만 집중해 회사 자금을 모두 소진하는 것은 흔히 발생하는 문제이며, 이는 경영진이 주주 수익보다 성장에 더 큰 인센티브를 두기 때문입니다.
2010년 이후 회사는 자본 배분의 32%를 배당금에, 7%를 자사주 매입($11억을 주주에게 반환) 등에, 그리고 47%를 성장에 사용했으며, 이는 장기 가치 창출에 대한 의지를 보여줍니다.
PAAS는 매수 대상인가? 포트폴리오에서의 위치
Investors interested in getting exposure to silver and precious metals in general likely do so for one of two reasons:
- Portfolio diversification, looking to reduce risks from inflation
- Interestingly, Morgan Stanley’s CIO started in 2025년 9월 to promote a 60/20/20 portfolio (60% allocation to equities, 20% to bonds, 20% to gold), replacing half of the traditional bond allocation with gold, marking a drastic departure of decades where gold was considered a “barbarous relic”, according to John Maynard Keynes (the progenitor of modern macroeconomics coining the expression.
- Potentially, a 60/20/15/5, with the gold allocation split between 15% gold and 5% silver, counting on silver likely having higher volatility and upside potential, could make sense as well.
- A calculated bet on monetary devaluation or remonetization of gold & silver, in the context of a decline in dollar usage for international trade, the re-emergence of China as a Great Power, and increasing geopolitical tensions.
In both cases, a company like Pan American Silver is the closest to a diversified silver portfolio a single stock can provide, thanks to the combination of its massive scale (unmatched except by one company) and its extensive geographical diversification (above Fresnillo’s focus on Mexico alone).
In the case of concerns about the international and monetary order breaking down, direct exposure to the physical metal, either through miners like Pan American Silver (ownership of reserves and future production), or direct ownership, makes more sense than through more risky derivatives like futures and options.
Silver is certainly still today considered an unconventional investment, compared to stocks, bonds, or even gold & Bitcoin.
But as silver demand from electrification explodes and inflation stays a concern, a turn towards more cautious portfolio, like the 60/20/20 now advocated by Morgan Stanley, might be a new durable trend in the investment community, and would greatly benefit the very small silver spot market (only $87B of market size in 2024) and silver miners like Pan American Silver Corp (all top silver miners’ market capitalization combined was worth $185B in 2025년 9월).
최신 Pan American Silver (PAAS) 주식 뉴스 및 개발 현황
