كيف تؤثر عمليات الإغلاق الحكومية على الأسواق والمستثمرين

You may not have noticed, but last week the US federal government shut down for a few days after Congress failed to pass funding bills for the year. Disagreements regarding how to fund defense, homeland security, transportation, and several other agencies caused the brief disruption.

Thankfully, this shutdown didn’t last long, as Congress passed a short-term continuing resolution that kept these agencies afloat. This maneuver pushed the funding deadline for the Department of Homeland Security to February 13, 2026. Despite the added time, it’s likely that there is going to be no consensus regarding how the Trump administration will fund key aspects of its immigration policy and other controversial policies. As such, it’s a great time to learn more about government shutdowns and how they affect the markets.

ما هو إغلاق الحكومة؟

Like any good business, the government needs funds to pay its employees and continue operations smoothly. A government shutdown occurs when the parties can’t agree on a budget for the fiscal year, resulting in heated debates and eventual concessions by one side.

Economic Consequences of Government Shutdowns

As you could guess, having the government shut down isn’t a good thing for many reasons. For one, all non-essential functions are going to evaporate. This scenario means key tasks like passing laws, enforcing inspections, and operating protection agencies all pause due to a lack of funding.

During this pause, essential workers are furloughed, meaning they don’t receive their pay during the shutdown. Essential workers like air traffic controllers have had to work for over a month with no paychecks in the past due to government shutdowns. Sadly, these employees still have bills to pay and financial commitments to meet.

Operational and Administrative Delays

Another major issue with government shutdowns is that they cause delays in operations and information. For example, tax refunds aren’t processed until the shutdown completes. Also, you can’t get your passport processed, visit national parks, or access social programs during this time.

Agencies Affected During a Government Shutdown

There are several crucial government agencies that are unable to operate during a government shutdown. While many agencies are already funded through September 2026, others remain in limbo. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Department of State, and Department of Defense must wait for specific appropriations to maintain full non-essential operations.

Do Government Shutdowns Cause Markets to Suffer?

There are a host of financial agencies that get shut down during this time period as well. During this time, the SEC, CFTC, and FTC operate using skeleton crews, meaning that they are unable to provide registrations or process filings. This situation results in delays.

Also, several vital statistics organizations are left without any way to continue operations. As such, key data like jobs and economic reports can be delayed. It’s these delays that cause investors to become worried, as this data is a vital component of their strategy.

Delayed economic reports can result in investors becoming spooked and choosing to stick with safe-haven assets rather than participate in the stock market. It also makes it harder for the Fed to determine whether to cut or raise interest rates, leading to more confusion amongst traders.

Government Shutdowns Becoming More Common

It used to be that a government shutdown was seen as a traumatizing event for the nation. As such, the political parties would try everything in their power to avoid this scenario. You can see this from the rarity of these events.

While Jimmy Carter oversaw several funding gaps, the first modern shutdown where agencies actually ceased operations occurred in 1981 under Ronald Reagan. Bill Clinton had two government shutdowns during his term. These shutdowns stemmed from disagreements with political opponents and funding disputes.

Obama had a 16-day shutdown that occurred due to Republicans opposing his care plan. This was the longest shutdown until Trump’s second shutdown, which saw the government closed for 35 days. This dispute was focused on the border wall.

Trump Presidency Shutdowns

During his time in office, President Trump has presided over multiple high-profile government shutdowns tied to federal appropriations disputes. The most significant occurred from October to November 2025, lasting 43 days and becoming the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. That episode followed the expiration of fiscal year funding and reflected broader disagreements over immigration enforcement, border security, and discretionary spending caps.

A separate, brief funding lapse occurred at the end of January 2026, when portions of the federal government shut down for several days before lawmakers passed a short-term continuing resolution. That agreement temporarily extended funding for key agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security, pushing the next major funding deadline to mid-February.

The Economy Suffers During Shutdowns

According to analysts, government shutdowns are horrible for the economy. Estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) suggest that every week a full government shutdown persists, it reduces real GDP growth by approximately 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points. Sadly, the real losses are immeasurable as a government shutdown absolutely destroys investor confidence.

How the Market Responded to Past Shutdowns

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Past government shutdowns have caused short-term volatility in the market. However, most incidents have been brief, with longer shutdowns showing more pronounced—but still temporary—effects on asset prices.

What sectors benefit during shutdowns?

It’s important to note that most shutdowns are short-lived. As such, it’s usually just a pause for investors. However, as they have become more common and longer in duration, it’s important to learn what assets are the best bet during these times.

Safe-Haven Assets During Government Shutdowns

As you would expect, investors seek out reliable safe-haven assets during these times. Treasuries and gold lead the list as investors consider these assets as the safest bets. Notably, Bitcoin has also emerged as a reliable safe-haven asset over the last 5 years, outperforming gold and the stock markets.

Defensive sectors have traditionally shown modest growth during shutdowns. These sectors have the advantage of long-term government contracts guaranteeing their income. The data shows that defence stocks can dip at the start of a shutdown before rebounding.

The healthcare sector remains stable during shutdowns. This industry has the added cushion provided by insurance providers, alongside hospital and drug revenues, to keep it afloat. Also, tech companies with deep pockets usually remain stable.

Large tech firms have global demand and massive budgets, so they can weather any storm for a month. However, it’s hard to predict how these stocks would do in a longer shutdown, as it would strain their budgets.

Crypto During Shutdowns

Crypto investors need to watch out for higher volatility during the shutdown. Data flow uncertainty and political drama can create a perfect storm of shaky-handed investors. However, Bitcoin has proven to be very resilient compared to other cryptocurrencies during shutdowns, but it’s not immune to the same issues that hurt stocks.

على سبيل المثال، البيتكوين (BTC -13.23٪) shot up +80% in the 2013 government shutdown. This growth came from a combination of new investors and support from the coin’s 4-year cycle. During the 2018 shutdown, the coin lost around 6% in value, which was in line with traditional stocks.

How Markets Price in Shutdown Risk

Given the current political climate and what appears to be both parties heading toward a funding battle on key issues, it’s no wonder that many investors are preparing for another shutdown in February. Whenever you have investors unsure about a government shutdown, it can result in broader fiscal uncertainty, reducing liquidity in the markets.

Institutional investors in particular need to consider the Fed’s interest rate decision in their yearly planning. When it’s impossible to get reliable data, these firms will wait to see what develops. During this time, investors can become hypersensitive to perceived risks or political discourse. As such, it’s no surprise to learn that safe-haven assets usually prosper during shutdowns.

ليس من الغابة حتى الان

Even though the first government shutdown of the year has come and gone with little effect on the market, it doesn’t mean that traders are out of the woods just yet. The political atmosphere is tense, and given the deadlocked stances of both parties, it’s likely that February won’t lead to any concrete concessions by either side. As such, it’s possible that another government shutdown is in the cards.

Markets Dodge First Government Shutdown of 2026 | Conclusion

Now that you have a better understanding of government shutdowns and their effect on the market, you’re ready to create a shutdown strategy. Be sure to take into account the reasons for the shutdown, as they will directly relate to the time it takes to complete. For those who can plan accordingly, government shutdowns could represent great buying opportunities.

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