Bitcoin Notícias
O Ciclo de Halving de 4 Anos do Bitcoin Está Finalmente Desmoronando?
Desde os primeiros dias das primeiras exchanges de Bitcoin (BTC ) como BitcoinMarket e Mt.Gox, os traders vasculharam todos os dados em busca de padrões. Embora a maioria desses esforços tenha sido em vão, o Ciclo de Halving de 4 Anos surgiu como o padrão ouro para o timing de mercado.
No entanto, o ciclo 2024-2025 se comportou de forma diferente. Com o pico de outubro de 2025 de aproximadamente $126.000 já passado e os preços corrigindo para a faixa alta dos $80.000, muitos investidores estão se perguntando se o ciclo está quebrado. O Bitcoin ainda está preso ao halving ou já se graduou para uma nova realidade macroeconômica?
Aqui está tudo o que você precisa saber sobre a história, a mecânica e a possível morte do ciclo de 4 anos.
Resumo
Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle has historically aligned with halving events and major bull markets. However, 2025 marked a shift: volatility dropped, and institutional ETFs dampened the typical “crypto winter.” Experts like Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan agora argumenta the cycle is “dead,” replaced by a market driven by central bank liquidity and structural institutional demand.
O que é o Ciclo de 4 Anos?
The 4-year cycle is a term that refers to the market movements that occur leading up to and following a halving event. Halving events occur every 210,000 blocks on the Bitcoin mainnet, or roughly every 4 years. Historically, this created a predictable rhythm: a supply shock, followed by a bull run 12-18 months later, and finally a correction.
A Mecânica: Por que o Ciclo Existia
Halvings are hardcoded into Bitcoin’s main SHA-256 hash algorithm, providing a predictable emission schedule that cannot be altered. This created two primary drivers for price action:
1. Economia dos Mineradores (O Choque de Oferta)
Halvings get their name because they reduce the mining rewards by half. In the early days, this was a massive deal. When miners’ income was cut by 50%, the supply of new coins hitting the market dropped instantly. This “Supply Shock” forced prices up simply because there was less Bitcoin available to buy.
Fonte – Datacenter Knowledge
2. Escassez e Inflação
This mechanism allowed Bitcoin to act as a hedge against inflation. Unlike fiat currencies where governments can print more money, Bitcoin’s inflation rate is programmed to decrease. Historically, this scarcity narrative drove immense “Fear Of Missing Out” (FOMO) immediately following a halving event.
As 4 Fases do Ciclo do Bitcoin
Analysts have successfully broken the traditional cycle into 4 distinct phases. Understanding these helps explain why the current market feels so different.
(BTC )
1. Fase de Rompimento
This stage usually begins 2-4 months before the halving event. Traders strengthen their positions in anticipation of the supply cut. The narrative of “scarcity” begins to take hold in the media, driving early volume.
2. Fase de Hype (Alta)
Usually taking 10-12 months to kick in post-halving, this is the trader’s favorite phase. Demand far outweighs supply, driving prices to new all-time highs. In this phase, retail investors typically enter the market, and major news networks cover Bitcoin daily.
3. Fase de Correção (Inverno Cripto)
Following the peak comes the crash. In the past, Bitcoin has lost up to 90% of its value during this stage as sellers rush to offload coins. This period tests the “diamond hands” of investors, as the asset can remain in a bear market for over a year.
4. Fase de Acumulação
The final step is accumulation, where prices stabilize and “smart money” (institutions) begins buying quietly. The market goes from cold to lukewarm, signaling that another 4-year cycle is approaching.
História dos Halvings do Bitcoin e Impacto no Mercado
Deslize para rolar →
| Data do Halving | Recompensa por Bloco | Preço do BTC no Halving | Pico do Ciclo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2012 | 25 BTC | $12 | $1,100 |
| Jul 2016 | 12.5 BTC | $650 | $20,000 |
| maio de 2020 | 6.25 BTC | $8,800 | $69,000 |
| Apr 2024 | 3.125 BTC | ~$64,000 | $126,200 |
Para obter uma compreensão mais profunda, veja como os ciclos passados remodelaram a economia do Bitcoin:
- Novembro de 2012: O primeiro halving reduziu as recompensas para 25 BTC. O Bitcoin subiu de $12 para um pico de $1,100, provando que a tese do “Choque de Oferta” funcionou.
- Julho de 2016: As recompensas caíram para 12,5 BTC. Após um longo inverno cripto, o Bitcoin recuperou de $650 para seu famoso pico de $20,000 em 2017, impulsionado principalmente pelo hype de varejo e ICOs.
- Maio de 2020: As recompensas caíram para 6,25 BTC. Coincidindo com os cheques de estímulo da COVID, o Bitcoin subiu de $8,800 para $69,000, já que os investidores o trataram como proteção contra a impressão de dinheiro.
- Abril de 2024: O ciclo mais recente viu o Bitcoin alcançar um máximo pré-halving antes de atingir $126,000 em outubro de 2025. Contudo, este ciclo introduziu uma nova variável que mudou a matemática para sempre: ETFs à vista.
O Ciclo de 4 Anos do Bitcoin Está Morto?
When you examine the 2024-2025 cycle, the pattern has shifted. The “Crypto Winter” has been milder, volatility has decreased, and the correlation to the halving seems weaker. This has led to two major new theories: The Liquidity Thesis and the Structural Thesis.
1. A Tese da Liquidez (Arthur Hayes)
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues in his essay “Viva o Rei” that Bitcoin has evolved into a proxy for global fiat liquidity. He notes that previous cycle peaks aligned perfectly with Central Bank tightening, while bottoms aligned with money printing.
Hayes points to late 2025 as proof: despite the post-October correction, the Federal Reserve’s 0.25% rate cut on December 10 and China’s continued deflationary stimulus are providing a floor for the asset. Under this view, Bitcoin moves with the M2 Money Supply, not the block height.
2. A Tese Estrutural (Matt Hougan)
Just this week, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan released a memo explicitly stating, “The four-year cycle is dead.” Hougan argues that the market has fundamentally changed structure due to the “Institutional Firewall” provided by ETFs.
Hougan cites three key factors that are breaking the cycle:
- Compressão da Volatilidade: Em 2025, o Bitcoin foi notavelmente menos volátil que as ações da Nvidia.
- O Amortecedor de ETFs: As instituições reequilibram portfólios e mantêm posições a longo prazo. Ao contrário dos traders de varejo que vendem em pânico quedas de 80%, essas entidades atuam como compradoras líquidas durante as quedas, evitando os profundos “Invernos Cripto” do passado.
- Previsão para 2026: Enquanto o ciclo tradicional dita que 2026 deveria ser um mercado baixista, Hougan prevê que será um “ano de alta”, impulsionado por essas mudanças estruturais e por um desacoplamento das ações.
3. A Matemática dos Rendimentos Decrescentes
Finally, there is the simple math of the halving itself. In 2012, the reward dropped by 25 BTC every 10 minutes. In 2028, it will drop by only 1.5625 BTC.
With daily issuance now hovering around only 450 BTC, miner selling pressure has far less impact on global liquidity than it did in 2016. The “supply shock” is becoming a ripple, meaning external demand (Institutions/ETFs) matters far more than internal supply.
Lição para Investidores
If the cycle is truly dead, investors should stop expecting 80% drawdowns every four years. Bitcoin is becoming a mature macro asset. The new strategy favors accumulation during structural dips rather than trying to time a 4-year clock that may no longer exist.
Conclusão: Navegando no Novo Ciclo
In the past, the halving didn’t hold much significance to investors outside the crypto sphere. However, this time around is completely different, with new players and assets helping to push adoption further and stabilize the economy. For these reasons, all eyes are on the Bitcoin 4-year cycle.
O que você acha? O ciclo de 4 anos do Bitcoin está morto ou simplesmente adiado? Deixe seu comentário, e não se esqueça de curtir, compartilhar e clicar aqui para mais insights empolgantes sobre ativos digitais.
