NASDAQ osserva i mercati predittivi con una nuova presentazione alla SEC

This NASDAQ MRX exchange surprised investors with its recent filing with the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) to host prediction market products. The filing has caused a stir for several reasons, ranging from the possibility of parallel markets emerging, all the way to disagreements about what regulators possess the ability to approve this move. Here’s what you need to know.
Riepilogo: The NASDAQ MRX exchange submitted an SEC filing seeking approval to offer prediction market products via its fully regulated infrastructure. If approved, it would represent a major step forward for the sector and help to legitimize the prediction market.

Cosa sono i mercati predittivi?

The prediction market has been around for a while, but it wasn’t until the 2024 elections that these platforms began to gain popularity. A prediction market enables users to bet on a wide variety of categories.

Users purchase contracts to reflect their predictions on future events. These contracts are commonly offered in the form of yes/no tokens known as outcome shares. Notably, the price of the share is usually based on $1 but adjusted to reflect the trader sentiment.

Many of these systems adjust the share redemption price based on implied probability, meaning that if a share is $0.55, there is a 55% probability according to the current vote. Notably, these prices can be adjusted using several methods, including order books, liquidity pools, or AMM (automated market makers).

Perché i mercati predittivi riflettono il sentimento pubblico

Prediction markets are now seen as much more than a loophole for gamblers. These platforms provide valuable insight into public opinion and have become so accurate at predicting certain events that they are now often cited as a source by analysts.

Interestingly, prediction markets have become increasingly accurate in their results. Notably, the platform Predictit was 93% accurate in predicting political results in the last election, highlighting the growing influence and respect that these platforms continue to gain.

Tipi di mercati predittivi

The top category for these networks is political prediction, reflecting the market’s connection to its 2024 and 2026 election hype. You can find increased traffic on these sites during election periods and other moments with heightened geopolitical stakes.

Fonte – Kalshi

Mercati predittivi sportivi

The next most popular prediction category is sports. This sector expanded significantly as major global events like the Olympics and international soccer championships boosted traffic. Notably, major US sporting events have also seen a sudden influx of interest. These events include the NFL, NHL, and MLB championships and drafts.

Previsioni di mercato finanziario

Another popular category on prediction sites is financial events. These can range from specific assets like Bitcoin’s

price hitting a set value, all the way to whether the Fed will lower interest rates. There are also predictions on stocks, GDP releases, CPI results, and more.

Crescita e statistiche dei mercati predittivi

Interestingly, the prediction market gained a lot of attention during the 2024 elections, securing leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi as viable options for users. These networks facilitated billions in token sales, covering everything from election cycles to crypto integrations.

Notably, the prediction market has hit some recent milestones. In February, the prediction market reached $23.4B in monthly trading volume. This number represents a slight retraction from the $27.1B the market achieved a month prior.

This pullback isn’t seen as the start of a trend but rather a planned maneuver by platforms that want to balance their products with regulatory concerns. Keenly, analysts predict this market to reach $300B by the end of 2026, fueled by the entrance of institutional investors.

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Spiegazione della presentazione del mercato predittivo NASDAQ MRX

On 2 marzo 2026, NASDAQ MRX, LLC filed (SR-MRX-2026-05) with the SEC exclusively. It focuses on two specific products – the NASDAQ-100 Index and its NASDAQ-100 Micro Index predictions. The products will enable traders to purchase contracts based on whether or not the index achieves certain values.

Cos’è l’indice NASDAQ-100?

The NASDAQ-100 (NDX ) is a stock market index that tracks the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ exchange. It is heavily weighted toward technology firms and is widely used as a benchmark for growth stocks in the U.S. market.

Cos’è il Micro Indice NASDAQ-100?

The Micro index  (MNQ ) was designed to provide more accessibility to these assets. It is set up to represent 1/100th of the value of the NASDAQ. This lower value makes it easier for retail traders to access. As such, retail traders can leverage this unique fund to gain broad exposure to the market.

Perché la presentazione del mercato predittivo di NASDAQ è storica

This filing represents the first time an institutional-level exchange has sought to offer prediction market options on a major stock index. Specifically, the filing refers to the products as “Outcome Related Options.” These derivatives would come in two primary forms, range-bound and binary contracts, and provide cash-settled contracts ranging from $0.01 – $1.

SEC vs CFTC: Chi regola i mercati predittivi?

Interestingly, the SEC and CFTC continue to joust over who has jurisdiction over prediction products. The current SEC chair, Paul Atkins, spoke to lawmakers on 12 febbraio 2026. During the discussion, he acknowledged that the structure of some prediction markets and the fact that they tie into the NASDAQ-100 would make them fall under SEC jurisdiction.

In response, the CFTC Chair, Michael Selig, submitted a rebuttal on 17 febbraio 2026. The amicus brief claims exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts and claims SEC encroachment. He argues that these are commodity derivatives at the end of the day and should follow the guidelines set out by the Commodities Exchange Act.

Perché NASDAQ ha presentato la domanda alla SEC anziché alla CFTC

The filing represents a belief by NASDAQ MRX, LLC that these assets qualify as securities attached to a stock index. This maneuver enables them to avoid CFTC’s derivatives/event contract domain requirements and utilize their current brokers, eliminating the need to utilize new platforms.

Vantaggi dei prodotti predittivi di NASDAQ

There are many benefits that these prediction market products bring to the table. For one, they open the door for more institutional investment liquidity. These products operate under the oversight and regulations that institutional investment firms require. As such, they could spawn an influx of liquidity to the sector.

Come NASDAQ potrebbe migliorare l’infrastruttura dei mercati predittivi

The sheer size and technology that NASDAQ provides should create a better UX. Already, company execs noted that their products would offer key advantages such as scalability, tighter spreads, and clearing through the Options Clearing Organization.

Accessibilità al dettaglio

Another major advantage is that more traders could access predictive market products across more platforms. Specifically, you could see these options appear on popular brokerage apps like Robinhood and Fidelity. This decision makes sense as it lowers the entry barrier by eliminating many of the onboarding restrictions.

Cosa succede se i mercati predittivi di NASDAQ vengono approvati

There are several results that could occurectly following the approval of NASDAQ prediction markets. For one, it would fully legitimize this asset class by bringing itectly into the mainstream economy.

This move would also help to entice more institutional investors to participate in these markets, as they could utilize fully regulated options versus decentralized platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

As such, there are some analysts who predict that an approval will create completely parallel markets, reminiscent of how there are decentralized and centralized exchanges. These sectors would follow different rules as NASDAQ offerings will be kept to the highest regulatory standards.

L’ascesa dei mercati predittivi ibridi

If the NASDAQ prediction products secure approval, it could result in a flood of innovative products over the coming months. These products could be used to hedge volatility, provide more access to markets, and gain insight into potential market trends.

Come differiscono i mercati predittivi SEC e CFTC

When you look at the big picture, it would appear as if there’s little difference between what NASDAQ wants to offer under SEC regulations versus what other providers offer under CFTC options. Both products function in the same way, with traders purchasing yes or no tokens to represent their prediction.

Principali differenze

However, when you zoom in, there are several key differences worth noting, including differences in structure, access, and regulatory requirements. For example, the NASDAQ products are viewed as securities, and as such, they are cleared using the Options Clearing Corporation. Conversely, CFTC-regulated platforms’ assets are designated as event derivatives.

Come gli investitori accederebbero ai mercati predittivi NASDAQ

There are also differences regarding who can access these assets. The NASDAQ-100 prediction market will require a standard brokerage account. As such, traders can stick with reputable options like Schwab, Fidelity, and more. In comparison, CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi can only be accessed via their proprietary portal.

Tipi di contratti che NASDAQ intende offrire

Another major difference in these two approaches is the products offered. The recent filing limits the predictions to the NASDAQ-100 index levels. This approach is in stark contrast to the majority of prediction markets that continue to have a strong focus on political and sports events.

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Rischi normativi per i mercati predittivi di NASDAQ

It’s vital to understand that the NASDAQ has its work cut out for it, and approval is by no means guaranteed for these products. There has been a lot of debate surrounding the products from both consumer protection and regulatory bodies.

Additionally, the fact that the SEC and CFTC continue to bicker over who has jurisdiction over these products is another factor that could result in delays. Also, competitors have expressed concerns over this product and how it would alter the market.

Preoccupazioni legali sul gioco d’azzardo riguardo ai mercati predittivi

Notably, prediction markets don’t fall under federal gambling regulations currently in the US. However, there are several states that have gambling laws forbidding these products. For example, New York, Maryland, and Montana have all banned prediction markets. Also, critics continue to point out similarities between these platforms and popular betting platforms.

Specifically, they cite the ability to wager on outcomes as the primary reason. Those opposing these products continue to argue that these products should fall under gambling restrictions. They also point to a lack of transparency on tax rates on winnings.

Piattaforme principali dei mercati predittivi

The prediction market continues to expand as more platforms seek to get in on the hype. There are currently a few major players that dominate the sector. These platforms conduct billions in monthly transactions and can be seen as the catalyst for the prediction market’s expansion into institutional finance. Here’s one leading predictive market available to traders today.

Polymarket – Il più grande mercato predittivo cripto

Polymarket launched in 2020 as Union Market during the COVID pandemic quarantine. The platform’s founder, Shayne Coplan, saw the potential of the platform to help fight misinformation and skewed reporting.

The goal was to create a betting platform that also shed light on the public’s perspective. His focus on politics, sports, finance, and pop culture appealed to younger generations seeking something more exciting than traditional betting options. Notably, one of the first bets was on when NYC would reopen from COVID lockdowns.

In 2022, Polymarket ran into some trouble with the CFTC, which fined them $1.4M. The company faced scrutiny as it was deemed that it operated as an unregistered Swap Execution Facility, resulting in a cease and desist.

Impressively, Polymarket worked with the CFTC to fall back into compliance, and it was allowed to continue operations offshore. This maneuver enabled the platform to make it to the 2024 election, which saw more than $3.6B in bets placed on the outcome.

Since then, the platform’s founder has become one of the younger self-made billionaires. Notably,  Polymarket continues to attract lots of new traders seeking to get in on the hype or just to share their predictions.

Cosa significa la presentazione del mercato predittivo di NASDAQ per gli investitori

There are several factors that make this filing a game-changer. For one, it would alter the entire scope of the prediction market, opening it up to a flood of institutional funding. Also, it has the potential to create entirely new asset classes in the traditional financial sector. Of course, all of this will depend on the SEC, CFTC, and NASDAQ reaching some sort of reasonable agreement in the coming weeks.

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