Bisakah Meriam Antariksa Longshot Memulai Ekonomi Orbital?

Memotong Biaya Peluncuran Tanpa Roket?

Since the launch of the first artificial satellite, Sputnik, in 1957, we have become familiar with the sight of rockets to reach outer space. But rockets are inherently expensive, as they have to burn a lot of fuel to carry their own weight (and the fuel’s weight), as well as having reactors able to sustain the extreme conditions created by the fuel burning.

Baru-baru ini, biaya peluncuran untuk mencapai orbit telah turun secara dramatis, berkat roket dapat digunakan kembali milik SpaceX (SPCX ). Dan biaya ini mungkin terus turun menjadi $100-200 per kilogram jika sebuah armada besar Spaceship dibangun dan berhasil.

Sumber: Ark Invest

Namun, ini masih puluhan kali lebih mahal dibandingkan cara transportasi lainnya. Jadi setiap proyek berskala besar di luar angkasa tampaknya ditakdirkan tetap sangat mahal.

So far, the only alternatives that have been envisioned can be grouped into one of two categories:

• Megaprojek megah yang mahal bergantung pada teknologi yang belum terbukti seperti mass driver atau lift ruang angkasa. Ini adalah sesuatu yang kami jelajahi secara mendalam dalam “Infrastruktur Antariksa – Membangun Tangga ke Surga”.
• Produksi in-situ, menggunakan sumber daya yang ditambang di Bulan atau asteroid untuk membangun peralatan antariksa dengan sumber daya ruang angkasa, menghilangkan kebutuhan mengangkatnya dari Bumi.

Both are, unfortunately, a rather long shot for now, with likely decades before they become a reality.

But maybe there is a third way, with an alternative to send massive amounts of materials from Earth to orbit, and then manufacture them in orbit. This is the plan revealed by Longshot Space, which is developing literal space canons.

Meriam Antariksa

Funnily enough, massive canons are maybe the first method imagined to reach outer space, with the proto-science-fiction novel by Jules Verne “Dari Bumi ke Bulan”. In the 1865 novel (and its sequel “Keliling Bulan”), the protagonists use a massive canon to travel to the Moon, as at the time, notions of rocketry were pretty much nonexistent.

Sumber: Nation Air And Space Museum

The concept would be explored much later on with the Proyek Penelitian Ketinggian Tinggi  (HARP) and Proyek Penelitian Ketinggian Super Tinggi  (SHARP).

HARP

The HARP project financed by the USA Army Research and Development Center used an oversized 120-foot long (36-meter), 200-ton naval canon to attempt putting satellites into orbit.

Proyek HARP yang dibiayai oleh Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan Angkatan Darat AS menggunakan meriam angkatan laut berukuran besar sepanjang 120 kaki (36 meter), berat 200 ton untuk mencoba menempatkan satelit ke orbit.

It managed to send test slugs at up to 80km high, and then 180km with the Yuma Gun (the ISS orbits Earth at 408km high).

Sumber: Astronix

Unfortunately, short funding and political struggle would derail the program.

In a curious turn of events like from a spy movie, the mind behind HARP, Canadian artillery expert Gerald Bull, would later work on Project Babylon for Saddam Hussein, a similar idea, until Bull’s assassination in 1990.

SHARP

This US Army design, operational in 1992, did not rely on explosive propulsion directly but methane and then hydrogen gas compressed by a series of detonations. It used a total of 425 feet canon length (129 meters).

Sumber: Astronix

It was expected to be the first step before a “Jules Verne Launcher”. But the price tag of $1B for this launcher would lead to it not be produced.

Similarly, Quicklaunch, a university spin-off of the SHARP project, would try to build it with private funds but ultimately closed in 2005.

Meriam Antariksa Longshot

Longshot is also basing its design on gas compression, making it the latest in a long series of attempts to develop space guns.

Longshot juga mendasarkan desainnya pada kompresi gas, menjadikannya yang terbaru dalam rangkaian panjang upaya mengembangkan meriam antariksa.

Ultimately, the design of Longshot is an iteration of the very first hypersonic prototype, the WW2-era V3, with multiple gas injectors installed successively. It would, however, prove to be hard to aim different targets with it, and it was destroyed in an Allied bombing raid.

Sumber: Longshot Space

The multiple injectors meant that they could be made from inexpensive materials that were not designed to take high temperatures or pressure (contrary to rocket reactor nuzzles).

In the words of the Longshot team “Rockets are good weapons but expensive, space guns are bad weapons but cheap”.

Sumber: Longshot Space’s X account

Similarly to HARP and SHARP, they plan to use hydrogen gas, as the lightweight of the gas allows for the maximum possible velocity.

Sumber: Longshot Space

But this time, the goal is even more ambitious, with an even longer canon that allows for more speed and acceleration.

By extending the length of the barrel to 500+ meters and adding more boosters, Longshot will be able to accelerate payloads of up to 100 KG to Mach 5+ at acceleration loads that your cell phone can survive, and at prices significantly lower than current rocket-based accelerator systems.

Masalah Meriam Antariksa

While space guns have been tried several times, they have so far been unsuccessful commercially.

So, are Longshot’s plans realistic? Well, maybe, as long as it manages to handle what killed previous space gun projects.

Akselerasi

The first thing to understand is that space guns are unlikely to ever be used for transporting people or anything remotely fragile, contrary to Jules Verne’s initial idea.

This is because the design inflicts acceleration forces of up to 100G on the payload, at least 3x more than what the human body can survive.

Even satellites would need to be hardened against for the launch to manage to survive such brutal acceleration.

Lintasan

Another issue is that by the very nature of the launch, a space gun is not capable of placing objects into a stable orbit. They will either fall back down on Earth or escape the planet’s gravity well.

So, all payloads will need to perform some sort of course corrections to reach a stable orbit.

Muatan

Another limitation of the previous project is that ultimately they look to launch only a few kilos of material into space. While this was acceptable for satellites of the time, and compared to rocket payload at the time, the soon-to-come 100-200 tons of Starship payload has changed this.

So really, at least tens or hundreds of kilos of payload for space guns will be needed, as well as a very regular firing schedule to match what SpaceX’s latest rockets can achieve.

Kompleksitas Sistem

Since the 1980s and 1990s, a lot of progress has been made in many fundamental technologies like power electronics, computing, material sciences, energy production, etc.

This means that the details of space gun engineering can likely be done today cheaper and/or better than 40 years ago. For example, precise computer modeling, solar power to create hydrogen, gas injections at the exact right time, electronic guidance system ability to sustain 100G, etc.

Kesiapan Pasar

Until recently, the market for orbital launches was mostly government, some telecom satellites, and some scientific missions. This is quickly changing with space tourism, planned bases on the Moon, and maybe even colonization of Mars.

This completely alters the economics faced by a space gun company and could open the way to much more funding until the technology is mature, something that has killed all the previous programs.

A space-based economy would also open a large total addressable market, something somewhat missing in the 1990s.

Kemajuan Antariksa Longshot

Garis Waktu Longshot

By all aspects, Longshot Space matches the scrappy, built-in-a-garage startup archetype.

Started with funding from friends and family in 2020 it was almost bankrupt by Q3 2021 and had built a prototype reaching Mach 1.8 speed.

That was when the US Air Force awarded it a direct-to-phase 2 SBIR for $750,000. This would validate the company’s technology and help with further fundraising. Money from Space Fund and Sam Altman (of OpenAI fame) increased the pre-seed round to $1.5 million.

With a new prototype in Oakland, California, they reached a speed of Mach 4.8.

Further funding from the Air Force and capital raising, including $5M in new money for a total of $8M.

This will be used to build a massive 500-meter-long gun in the Nevada desert to push 100-kilogram payloads to Mach 5. The move to Nevada will increase the safety of the testing, as well as use the unstable but more powerful hydrogen gas.

The goal is to keep iterating from here, with “next up is Mach 6, then Mach 15, then Mach 25”.

Posisi Kompetitif

In some way, SpaceX’s success is both a boom and a curse for Longshot and all the other space launch startups.

On one hand, it proves to investors that this can be a profitable venture, something thought impossible even in 2012.

On the other hand, it means very tough competition, while SpaceX had only to beat companies like Boeing used to a comfortable “cost-plus contracting”. The bar to reach is now so much higher and constantly getting tougher.

So indeed, competition with SpaceX means that a rocket bringing launch cost at $1,000/kg, or even an unprecedented $500/kg might not be enough.

This also means that differentiation is essential. While SpaceX can launch humans with a complex fragile payload, companies like Longshot Space or Spinlaunch can target something else: bulky, simpler payload.

And this is actually a must if we want to expand in space, as we presented in “Ekonomi Berbasis Antariksa di Masa Depan”. The same tens of thousands of raw materials will be required to build the large orbital solar arrays to power the whole Earth we discussed in “Solusi Energi Berbasis Antariksa untuk Energi Bersih Tanpa Henti”.

Aplikasi

Mengisi Bahan Bakar Roket

Assuming that Longshot could manage to send payloads to orbit at a cheap cost (<$100/kg), one application seems very straightforward: refueling Starship. So once again, SpaceX’s progress could boost some of its competition.

For now, the plan to land a Starship on the Moon or Mars relies on sending several more Starships to refuel the one left in orbit. Depending on the Starship’s actual payload, this means that between 15-30 launches in total would actually be required to bring one Starship to the Moon.

This is because each Starship arrives in orbit almost empty, with little carrying capacity left for extra fuel. With each Starship launch cost expected at $5M (and more billed to NASA) in a best-case scenario, this means that the whole Moon landing cost likely $100-150M or more in refueling alone.

Instead, a system like Longshot could send artillery shell-like containers into orbit. These could then be captured by a dedicated orbiting vessel and ferried back to the Starship needing refueling.

So it might be that the Moon missions refueling will be the very first practical use case for space guns, and the very first commercial contracts for Longshot Space.

Bahan Mentah

Ultimately, Longshot space guns could be used to send into orbit any kind of material that is sturdy enough to survive the 100G acceleration.

In theory, this can include electronics, including consumer-grade ones, but would need to be tested in practice.

What is certainly included is all kinds of raw material. Assuming a low launch cost of around $10-100/kg, this could make practical the sending into orbit of bulk amount of steel plate, aluminum, polysilicon, basic electronic components, and even water or food, etc.

For example, it was studied that space-based solar power could make sense economically as soon as the launch cost falls below $500/kg.

These should then be processed by space-based automated factories into useful materials, like for example radiation shielding (steel and water), solar panels (polysilicon), orbital mirrors (aluminum), etc.

This would radically reduce the cost of orbital space stations and space habitats in general.

Mars Cycler

Cheap bulk material in space could also be essential in building an Aldrin Conveyor / Cycler, or or Mars Cycler could be permanently orbiting so it comes regularly in the vicinity of both Earth and Mars.

Sumber: Ethan MacDonald

This way, you could build a permanent space station for people to transit to and from Mars. It would have heavy radiation shielding and food production, as well as more comfortable and spacious rooms and sports facilities to keep people in shape despite the absence of gravity.

It would avoid having to accelerate and slow down the whole shielding, life support, and food supply for each trip to Mars.

Mikro Satelit

There is today a whole class of mini- and microsatellites weighing 10-180kg. This includes the CubeSats recently used to launch a cheap swarm of satellites.

Sumber: NASA

Ultimately, Internet-based satellites like the Starlink satellites (260kg) could maybe even be included in models that could be better launched with space guns than with rockets.

Senjata Antariksa

Militarisasi ruang angkasa adalah topik yang sangat diperdebatkan, yang akan melanggar beberapa perjanjian internasional.

It could even threaten mankind with Kessler syndrome, or the situation where so much orbital debris is in orbit that we would be locked in on Earth.

Nevertheless, the perspective of launching at an ultra-cheap cost payload of tens or maybe hundreds of kilos has potential military applications. This could include anti-satellite weapons, hypersonic missiles, surveillance tools, etc.

With geopolitical tensions with Russia, Iran, and China escalating, this is not a trivial matter.

This is likely a reason why Longshot Space received funding from the US Air Force in the first place, especially since the USA officially created a military Space Force during the Trump presidency.

So while space guns make for poor weapons in the sense of artillery pieces, they might still be a crucial military technology that great powers will want to control.

Berinvestasi dalam Infrastruktur Antariksa

Space is a very established industry experiencing a rebirth and explosive growth on the back of reusable rockets. We discussed how this would create whole opportunities in our article “Roket Dapat Digunakan Kembali untuk Menciptakan Berbagai Pasar Baru dengan Menurunkan Biaya Secara Drastis”.

Pasar antariksa saat ini adalah $443B, space tourism & hypersonic flight could add another $350B in revenues, to which can be added a forecast of satellite-based Internet worth $17B, as well as military applications and subsidized Moon bases, scientific projects, etc. And this is even while ignoring more speculative (but potentially very lucrative) ideas like asteroid mining.

You can invest in space-related companies through many brokers, and you can find on this website our recommendations for the best brokers in the USA, Canada, Australia, the UK, as well as many other countries.

If you are not interested in picking specific space-related companies, you can also look into ETFs like ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX) or VanEck Space Innovators UCITS ETF (JEDI) to capitalize on the growth of the space sector as a whole.

Perusahaan Infrastruktur Antariksa

1. Rocket Lab

Rocket Lab (RKLB ) adalah salah satu pesaing paling serius di pasar roket dapat digunakan kembali. Perusahaan ini awalnya fokus pada roket kecil, dengan sistem peluncuran Electron (320 kg muatan), yang secara bertahap diubah menjadi roket sebagian dapat digunakan kembali. Sejauh ini, Electron telah menempatkan 177 satelit dalam 44 peluncuran.

Kemudian, Rocket Lab berencana membuat roket dapat digunakan kembali berukuran menengah, Neutron, yang sebanding dengan Falcon 9 (8.000 kg ke LEO dalam mode sepenuhnya dapat digunakan kembali, 1.500 kg ke Mars atau Venus). Neutron akan didukung oleh mesin roket berbahan bakar metana (seperti Starship), yang tampaknya menjadi tren untuk generasi roket berikutnya.

Perusahaan ini menonjol karena proses manufaktur satelit yang sepenuhnya terintegrasi secara vertikal, memungkinkan optimalisasi biaya dan kecepatan desain. Hal ini menghasilkan banyak kontrak dengan NASA & pemerintah AS, termasuk kontrak satelit militer senilai $515 juta. dan kontrak sipil $143 juta untuk Globalstar.

Rocket Lab juga merupakan produsen utama panel surya untuk satelit setelah akuisisi SolAero Technologies pada 2022, dengan lebih dari 1000 satelit yang ditenagai oleh panel ini, dan total 4MW sel surya yang diproduksi.

Sumber: Rocket Lab

Saat ini, sistem peluncurannya bergantung pada pemasok luar, tetapi serangkaian akuisisi strategis harus mengubah hal itu, meniru dalam sistem peluncuran integrasi vertikal yang sudah dicapai dalam desain dan manufaktur satelit.

Perusahaan ini juga mempertimbangkan kemungkinan konstelasi LEO telekomunikasi untuk menghasilkan pendapatan berulang. Mereka juga berkontribusi pada riset untuk manufaktur di ruang dengan Varda Space Industries dan inspeksi sampah orbital.

Sementara SpaceX memiliki bakat bisnis Elon Musk untuk mengembangkan teknologinya dari nol, Rocket Lab menggunakan kombinasi R&D dan akuisisi untuk mengintegrasikan secara vertikal teknologi yang diperlukan. Ini terbukti sangat sukses dalam manufaktur satelit, dan kini mereka berusaha meniru strategi ini untuk roket dapat digunakan kembali.

Mengingat arus kas yang ada dari produksi satelit & keberhasilan Electron, Rocket Lab adalah kandidat yang baik untuk menyusul SpaceX, setidaknya sampai mass driver dan infrastruktur lain dibangun dalam beberapa dekade.

2. Virgin Galactic

The company was founded by Richard Branson and is focused on space tourism.

Tiket berada dalam kisaran $250.000-450.000, dengan daftar tunggu yang panjang.

“Saya selalu tahu ini akan menjadi pengalaman paling luar biasa dalam hidup saya. Saya selalu tahu itu. Dan orang‑orang semacamnya memberi tahu saya bahwa itu akan terjadi. Tetapi ketika itu terjadi… dan berada pada level lain dibandingkan pengalaman yang Anda kira akan Anda dapatkan… maka sangat sulit untuk dijelaskan.”

“This is the best day of my life, the most sensational day of my life. And you can’t get any better than that. It exceeded my wildest dreams.”

Virgin Galactic (SPCE ) telah bekerja meningkatkan ekonomi unitnya, dengan sistem peluncuran baru, “Delta”, yang dapat membawa 6 penumpang dibandingkan 4, dan melakukan 8 penerbangan per bulan dibandingkan hanya satu.

Bersama‑sama, dua metrik yang ditingkatkan ini harus meningkatkan pendapatan per unit sebesar 12×, dengan waktu pengembalian kurang dari 6 bulan untuk setiap pesawat Delta. Uji terbang Delta diperkirakan pada pertengahan 2025.

Sumber: Virgin Galactic

Markets were concerned when it was announced that Branson would not invest further into Virgin Galactic. Especially following the layoff of 185 employees and a pause of space flights in 2024, to wait for the arrival of the Delta shuttle and reduce cash burn speed.

Namun, Virgin Galactic diperkirakan memiliki cukup kas untuk beroperasi hingga 2025 atau 2026. Jadi jika pengembangan sistem penerbangan Delta berjalan lancar (sebuah proposisi berisiko dalam industri dirgantara), perusahaan dapat fokus pada memulai kembali dan meningkatkan arus kas, dengan sistem yang menguntungkan per unit. Dan membuat perusahaan menjadi arus kas positif pada 2026.

(Perlu dicatat bahwa Virgin Galactic berbeda dari Virgin Orbit. Virgin Orbit mengajukan kebangkrutan pada April 2023, dan menyediakan layanan peluncuran untuk satelit kecil, dengan Rocket Lab mengakuisisi fasilitas Long Beach perusahaan, manufaktur, dan aset peralatan).

Kebangkrutan terbaru Virgin Orbit dan pemisahan dari Virgin Galactic oleh pendiri Richard Branson telah merusak citra perusahaan di mata investor, mengakibatkan harga saham jatuh tajam pada 2023 dan 2024.

Disarankan untuk berhati‑hati terkait saham itu sendiri.

Pada saat yang sama, kepuasan pelanggan sebelumnya, rencana yang jelas untuk desain yang menguntungkan (pesawat Delta), dan daftar tunggu panjang calon klien menunjukkan bahwa perusahaan masih dapat bertahan bahkan tanpa mengumpulkan lebih banyak dana.

Selama dapat menerbangkan pesawat kelas Delta cukup cepat. Sejauh ini, pabrik untuk membangun Delta telah selesai, dan konstruksi harus dimulai pada Q1 2025.

Banyak hal akan bergantung pada keberhasilan mengembangkan, memproduksi, dan mengoperasikan pesawat Delta serta mencapainya sebelum akhir 2025.

Jika hal ini terjadi, valuasi yang jauh lebih rendah akan menciptakan peluang bagi investor untuk membeli saham perusahaan dengan diskon.