Bitcoin fiyatını piyasa duyarlılığı mı belirliyor, yoksa fiyatı mı takip ediyor?

Bitcoin (BTC -1.34%) has trended upward in early 2026, showing signs of recovery in the first half of the year. This marks a sharp reversal from the last quarter of 2025, when BTC was down over 23%.

The leading cryptocurrency had three consecutive red months, recording a performance of -3.69%, -17.67%, and -2.97% in October, November, and December of 2025, according to CoinGlass'tan alınan veriler.

Bitcoin’s 1Q26 performance has started green as it trades near $96,500, down roughly 23.5% from its all-time high (ATH) of $126,000, hit on October 6th, 2025.

With this reversal, market sentiment has significantly improved. Investor sentiments turned to “greed” for the first time since October, marking a sharp pivot from the “extreme fear” dominating the last few months.

This shift is reflected in the Kripto Korku ve Açgözlülük Endeksi, widely used by market participants to gauge market sentiment.

Crypto traders and investors closely track sentiment indicators to understand how other participants are feeling, as emotions often drive price movements. The index often reveals the market’s collective psychology before trends fully develop, and traders move their positions accordingly.

The index, which ranges from 1 to 100, recently rose to 61. Only days prior, the index stood at 48, a neutral level, and shortly before that, it was at 26, indicating market fear.

In November and December, the reading went as low as 10, indicating “extreme fear” among crypto market participants.

During this time, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded massive outflows almost daily, and Bitcoin OG holders used the ATH as a prime selling opportunity, putting downward pressure on prices. Sentiments took a particularly big hit on October 11 when about $19 billion was liquidated from crypto markets in a single day, causing a massive drawdown in altcoin prices and triggering a prolonged risk-off stretch.

In the weeks following the event, the index value dropped significantly, signaling caution among traders.

Currently, sentiments have turned positive. Historically, extreme fear tends to appear near market bottoms, while prolonged greed tends to occur closer to market peaks. Greed is also seen during recovery phases after the market has sustained months of caution and risk aversion.

As the index rises to 61, it points to improving risk appetite among participants, highlighting how quickly the mood has turned as Bitcoin enjoys a green run and returns to the level seen before the October correction.

Bitcoin’s price rose to a two-month high of $97,704 recently, up from $90K a week ago. With Bitcoin’s recovery, the total crypto market cap has risen to $ 3.35 trilyon, helping stabilize market confidence.

As liquidity improves, macro uncertainty softens, and Bitcoin price holds key support levels, the return of greed has investors expecting further upside.

The question that arises from this is: is it the price that influences sentiments, or is it sentiments that drive price?

Does Market Sentiment Predict Returns, or React to Them?

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is a tool that gauges the overall emotional sentiment of the cryptocurrency market. According to Alternative.me, the index includes data from five sources: volatility, momentum, social trends, and market dominance, to visualize progress in sentiment change of the crypto market.

Volatility and market momentum or volume are the two main factors, each accounting for 25% of the index.

For price changes, it measures current volatility and maximum drawdowns, and compares them with the corresponding averages over the last 30 and 90 days. “We argue that an unusual rise in volatility is a sign of a fearful market,” it states.

As for market momentum, which is also measured against the last 30/90-day average values, high daily buying volumes in a positive market are taken to indicate the market is overly greedy or too bullish.

Then there’s social media (15%), with the index incorporating Bitcoin post counts on X (previously Twitter) and how fast and how many interactions they receive in certain time frames. An unusually high interaction rate is seen as a sign of growing public interest in the coin, corresponding to a greedy market.

Bitcoin’s dominance (10%) and Google Trends (10%) data for various related search queries are also taken into account.

Using volatility, momentum, market dominance, and social trends, the index measures participants’ emotions and helps traders identify extremes that often precede reversals.

Using this index, several çalışmalar¹ have sought to determine whether investor emotions drive market performance, whether sentiment is shaped by price action, or whether both influence each other.

One such study from last year bulundu² that investor sentiment affected Bitcoin returns positively and significantly both in the short and long term.

Using A-ARDL (Augmented-ARDL) analysis of daily Bitcoin returns and crypto FGI data from 2018 to 2022, it was determined that increased greed positively affects Bitcoin returns and fear negatively, consistent with behavioral finance and investor sensitivity theories.

A peer-reviewed study from 2024 also tested the index’s predictive effect on Bitcoin returns, and much like the last one, it found the Fear and Greed Index (FGI) to be predicting Bitcoin returns, highlighting a psychological interplay. The study noted³:

“The study findings underscore the profound psychological sway within cryptocurrency markets. The FGI notably predicts the returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum, underscoring the lasting connection between investor emotions and market behavior.”

More importantly, it noted that fear and greed both influence and respond to crypto prices over time, and this relationship is mostly straightforward and linear, not driven by complex or nonlinear emotional dynamics.

henüz başka bir çalışmada⁴ used monthly Bitcoin and FGI data (2016–2021) to identify “a positive and statistically significant correlation” between the index and Bitcoin returns, noting “strong sentiment may beneficially affect Bitcoin’s long-term returns.”

Given that FGI is public and widely observed, per the efficient market hypothesis, sentiment should not be able to predict future Bitcoin returns.

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) says that asset prices fully reflect available information and rational expectations. This makes it impossible for an investor to consistently “beat the market” through asset picking or timing because it is always trading at its fair value.

Developed by Eugene Fama, the hypothesis suggests that higher returns could only be earned by taking on more risk, not from superior analysis. If EMH holds, sentiment should not predict future Bitcoin returns.

Sentiment Follows Returns, Not the Other Way Around

Given Bitcoin’s massive returns, 142,572% increase in value over 12 years, and growing significance in the mainstream financial world, it makes sense that researchers have been trying to understand just what makes the market move.

Hence, a new paper published in ScienceDirect⁵ this week examined whether daily changes in investor sentiment, measured by the FGI, predict BTC returns, and whether BTC returns move sentiment.

To test both directions of potential causality, lead author Louis Gessie, Master’s Candidate, Department of Finance, Shanghai University, used daily Bitcoin price data from 2018 to 2025 from CoinMarketCap and employed the small vector autoregression (VAR) model, a standard econometric tool for analyzing dynamic relationships among multiple time series. Granger causality tests were also performed to gauge whether one variable helps predict another.

To test robustness, the study added macro uncertainty controls, including changes in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and U.S. daily Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), aggregating to weekly frequency, splitting the sample before and after 2021, comparing high versus low VIX days, and testing positive versus negative return moves for asymmetry.

The paper noted that while the 2024 study reported a positive association between the index and Bitcoin returns in ARDL/ECM settings, a 2023 çalışmada⁶, using rolling Granger tests, showed that the direction of influence varied across the COVID-19 period, underscoring regime dependence.

While sentiment levels have been explored extensively in relation to price predictability, there aren’t many studies that focus on changes in sentiment and their ability to predict short-term movements in BTC returns. Moreover, studies are lacking on changes in the index, on adequately addressing the mechanism underlying the predictive power of sentiment, and on thorough out-of-sample forecasting testing.

To fill these gaps, the latest study focused on changes in the index (∆FGI) rather than its level to study whether sentiment leads returns or returns lead how crypto investors feel due to some of the index’s components being directly tied to price and volume.

It also incorporated out-of-sample forecasting to examine the practical utility of sentiment in real-world market conditions.

What the study has found is that changes in the Fear & Greed Index do not Granger-cause Bitcoin returns. This means that knowing recent sentiment movements does not help you forecast future Bitcoin price changes.

The index has limited forecasting value for actual Bitcoin price returns, per the study.

While sentiment does not predict returns, Bitcoin returns do affect sentiment, thereby changing the index. It is price movements, especially sharp gains or losses, that trigger short-lived swings in sentiment.

Bitcoin price movements having a noticeable impact on investor sentiment aligns with broader empirical evidence showing that sentiment often reacts to price moves.

Price movements move sentiment, but sentiment rarely drives prices.

Even when sentiment does move around, its impact on next-day returns is negligible, so one can’t really gain any meaningful edge from trading on sentiment alone.

The result holds across several checks, including weekly rather than daily data, controlling for VIX and EPU, splitting the sample, and separating positive vs. negative returns. This provides confidence that the findings are not driven by sample selection or macroeconomic conditions.

With that, the study suggests that the FGI may be useful only as a descriptive, reactive gauge of market mood, not as a leading indicator or a reliable forecasting tool for prices. According to the study:

“At the daily horizon the FGI behaves like a thermometer of risk appetite that responds to price innovations rather than a thermostat that sets them.”

However, it’s important to note that the study doesn’t imply that sentiment in general is irrelevant for BTC prices; rather, this particular index primarily reacts to price movements at the daily frequency.

The out-of-sample forecasting, which shows that adding sentiment (∆FGI) doesn’t improve predictive accuracy, “suggests that Bitcoin markets may be highly efficient in the short run.” It could also be indicative of the market’s efficiency in processing and reflecting information quickly, and the rapid incorporation of information into prices implies that price discoveries drive short-term movements rather than sentiment shifts, the author wrote.

Why Bitcoin Is Catching Up — And What Could Cap the Rally

It is Bitcoin rallying that has investors greedy. This makes sense, given that the cryptocurrency has finally joined the likes of precious metals and risk assets, which have been enjoying an uptrend while Bitcoin was stuck in a range, and despite the latest price action, is still down 0.2% in the past year.

2026’in başında S&P 500 hit a new peak of 6,986.33, enjoying an uptrend since April last year when the stock market index dropped to about 4,980. Currently trading at 6,926.60, the S&P 500 is up 1.18% YTD and 16.42% in the past year.

Higher prices in traditional markets support the risk-on mood in the crypto market.

Gold is also constantly making new highs, hitting almost $4,643 recently. As of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $4,621 per ounce, up 6.82% YTD, 72.64% in the past year, and over 150% in the past five years.

Hatta silver has surged past $93. Currently trading just above $91, XAG/USD is up 27.8% YTD and 197% in the past year. Silver was worth just $22 a mere year ago.

Both precious metals have been enjoying a face-melting rally since last year, with no signs of slowing. With Bitcoin’s latest gains, the digital asset is finally catching up, with participants seeing it as the crypto king potentially advancing on rival asset classes.

With the latest positive momentum, the digital asset is moving closer to $100,000, a psychologically key level. Bitcoin is also above its 100-day moving average, a bullish signal.

The bounce has sent Bitcoin price back into the price zone that obstructed upside late last year, with crypto data provider Glassnode belirterek that this time around, long-term holders are taking profits much more slowly than last year.

While profit-taking is currently happening in moderation, it is still active, just far less aggressively than during prior distribution phases.

Ever since November, price has made several attempts at a sustained recovery, only to fizzle out right at the lower edge of the $93,000-$110,000 sell zone.

“Each attempt higher has encountered renewed sell-side pressure, preventing price from sustaining a structural recovery.”

– Glassnode

What Bitcoin needs to really break out and have a trend reversal is “absorbing long-term holder distribution.”

Bitcoin’s highest intra-day level since Nov. 14 came on the back of erasure of billions of dollars in bearish crypto bets.

While Bitcoin shorts provided the immediate impetus for the price to move upwards, another major contributor to this price action was spot ETFs. After experiencing massive outflows for weeks, spot Bitcoin ETFs are finally attracting inflows.

Göre Uzak taraf verileri, Bitcoin ETFs recorded three consecutive days of net inflows totaling $1.7 billion. This marks a vote of confidence from institutional investors that the Bitcoin rally may extend further.

Düzenleyici cephede, Netlik Yasası is gaining traction, helping support prices. The U.S. kripto piyasası yapı tasarısı, which will divide oversight between the SEC and the CFTC, is being drafted ahead of its planned markup by the Senate Banking Committee.

In a note to clients, Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said the opportunity to pass the bill is “here and now.”

The debate over how digital commodities are defined versus securities and how DeFi is treated is unlikely to delay the bill’s progress, but the key obstacle, they noted, is a push by banks to restrict crypto platforms from offering rewards on stablecoins.

Süre GENIUS Yasası, which has already been signed into law, restricts stablecoin issuers from paying yield directly, it doesn’t cover crypto platforms and affiliates. And as the stablecoin market grows from $313 billion today to trillions of dollars and becomes “systemically important,” banks see those incentives as a threat to traditional deposits.

Sharing his discontent with the bill, Coinbase (COIN -6.48%) CEO Brian Armstrong said, “We’d rather have no bill than a bad bill.” A few weeks ago, a crypto exchange’s Chief Policy Officer (CPO), Faryar Shirzad, also argued that “it’s critical for negotiators to protect the primacy of the US dollar and the US financial system, not just incumbent interests.”

Other factors that can act as a tailwind for the asset include the tensions surrounding the Federal Reserve, which is currently in a feud with President Donald Trump, who has called for lower interest rates to make borrowing cheaper and give the economy a kickstart.

A recent investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell has added yet another layer of policy risk. Federal prosecutors are looking into a $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters and his testimony to Congress, said Powell last weekend, adding that this inquiry is the result of Trump’s persistent pressure for faster, deeper rate cuts.

The market is now speculating that this could lead to an earlier-than-scheduled leadership change at the central bank by someone more in favor of rate cuts.

Lower interest rates tend to be supportive for risky assets like crypto by making holding cash less attractive. It also reduces the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no yield. A weaker U.S. dollar, mounting fiscal deficits, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty further provide the ground for higher prices.

While growing institutional adoption, continued capital inflow, rising global uncertainty, expanding money supplies, and high global debt levels, combined with Bitcoin’s maturing market structure, present strong tailwinds this year, there are forces that could cap its gains.

For starters, restrictive policies, political uncertainty, and banking restrictions pose the greatest risks by deterring adoption and institutional participation.

Then there’s market psychology: many believe Bitcoin has already topped this cycle, and the current recovery will be short-lived. If the asset’s short history is any indication, it could very well be at the beginning of its bear market.

As Glassnode noted, “Long-Term Holders’ (LTHs) transition from a high-spending regime in H2 2025 to lower spending in Jan 2026…. tend to emerge during mid-bull market pauses or the early stages of deeper bear markets.”

Sonuç

After months of disappointment, Bitcoin is finally rallying and reigniting optimism across crypto markets. While sentiments being pushed back into greed territory create hope for more gains, new research suggests that this shift in mood is a reaction, not a cause.

Price movements, driven by liquidity, macro conditions, institutional flows, and regulatory developments, are shaping investor sentiment.

As Bitcoin pushes toward key technical levels amid supportive macro conditions and renewed inflows, sentiment is likely to remain elevated, but greed alone is not a signal of what comes next. Whether this recovery evolves into a sustained uptrend will depend on Bitcoin’s ability to absorb long-term holder selling and maintain institutional support.

Referanslar

<sup>1. Mokni, K., Bouteska, A., & Nakhli, M. S. (2022). Investor sentiment and Bitcoin relationship: A quantile-based analysis. Kuzey Amerika Ekonomi ve Finans Dergisi, 60, 101657. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2022.101657
2. Saka Ilgın, K. (2025). Yatırımcı Duyarlılığı Kripto Para Piyasalarını Nasıl Etkiler? Bitcoin İncelemesi. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, (105), 121–134. https://doi.org/10.25095/mufad.1571822
3. Cavalheiro, E. A., Vieira, K. M., & Thue, P. S. (2024). The impact of investor greed and fear on cryptocurrency returns: A Granger causality analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Review of Behavioral Finance, 16 (5), 819 – 835. https://doi.org/10.1108/RBF-08-2023-0224
4. Huang, Y., Xu, T., Xue, C., & Zhang, J. (2024). How does the Bitcoin Sentiment Index of Fear & Greed affect Bitcoin returns? Corporate Ownership & Control, 21 (2), 121 – 131. https://doi.org/10.22495/cocv21i2art10
5. Gessie, L. (2026). Do Bitcoin returns move sentiment? Evidence from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Finance Research Open, 100094. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.finr.2026.100094
6. Gaies, B., Nakhli, M. S., Sahut, J.-M., & Schweizer, D. (2023). Interactions between investors’ fear and greed sentiment and Bitcoin prices. Kuzey Amerika Ekonomi ve Finans Dergisi, 67, 101924. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2023.101924</sup>