NuScale (SMR) Spotlight: Gestandaardiseerde Seriegebouwde Kernreactoren

Van grote naar kleine modulaire reactoren

Kerncentrales zijn doorgaans enorme projecten. De output ligt in de gigawatt, investeringen bedragen tientallen miljarden, en de bouwtijd loopt in jaren, zo niet decennia. Dit veroorzaakt een aantal problemen:

• Het is moeilijk om geld uit overheidsfinanciering te vinden vanwege de enorme tijdsvertraging tussen de start van het project en de datum van de eerste stroomproductie.
• Het is geen goede match voor kleine landen of afgelegen gebieden, en vereist in zekere mate dat het hele elektriciteitsnet wordt aangepast aan de kerncentrale.
• Wanneer er iets misgaat, kan het in plaats van een lokaal incident een continentale ramp worden.
• Elk enorm project is een op maat gemaakt experimenteel ontwerp, waardoor de industrie wordt geblokkeerd in het ontwikkelen van enige vorm van standaardisatie in het productieproces.

Over het algemeen kan worden gesteld dat de traditionele benadering van kernenergie lijdt aan twee zwaktes: te hoge kosten en te hoge risico’s.

Sommige van deze problemen kunnen worden opgelost door 4^th generation nuclear power plants, which use new and safer designs. Maar een andere benadering, genaamd SMR (Small Modular Reactors), kijkt naar een nieuwe manier om atomen te splitsen om stroom te genereren en beide problemen tegelijk op te lossen.

Source: IAEA

De vraag naar meer kernenergie explodeert nu, gedreven door een mix van energy-hungry AI data centers en het besef dat de intermitterende productie van hernieuwbare energie een probleem blijft totdat we batterijsystemen voldoende opschalen, wat decennia kan duren.

Waarom SMR’s gebruiken

Het centrale idee van SMR’s is dat in plaats van witte‑olifant‑gigantische & op maat gemaakte projecten, kernreactoren moeten worden gebouwd op dezelfde manier waarop we vliegtuigen en schepen bouwden:

• Een gestandaardiseerd sjabloon maakt het mogelijk om hetzelfde ontwerp talloze keren te hergebruiken, waardoor de R&D‑kosten worden gespreid.
  • Dit betekent ook de uitwisselbaarheid van reserveonderdelen en minder opleidingskosten na verloop van tijd.
• Gefabriceerd en geassembleerd in serie, in een speciale fabriek, waardoor ervaring kan worden opgebouwd en schaalvoordelen ontstaan.
• Van de fabriek naar de locaties waar ze nodig zijn verplaatst.

In theorie zou dit radicale schaalvoordelen moeten opleveren, aangezien elke extra geproduceerde reactor eerder verworven vakmanschap, machines, standaardopstellingen, enz. hergebruikt. Een SMR‑reactor zou bijvoorbeeld ongeveer drie jaar moeten duren om te bouwen in plaats van de gebruikelijke 5‑10 jaar (soms 15‑20 jaar in de slechtste gevallen, zoals de Vogtle‑installatie in Georgia).

Een andere factor is dat kleinere reactoren simpelweg minder energie per eenheid produceren. Dit betekent dat uit de hand gelopen kettingreacties die leiden tot catastrofes zoals Tsjernobyl inherent minder waarschijnlijk zijn.

Wanneer gecombineerd met 4^th generation nuclear tech improvement, this can make SMRs several orders of magnitude safer than the older designs.

Ten slotte, omdat SMR’s uit meerdere sub‑eenheden bestaan, biedt dit grote flexibiliteit in de uiteindelijke stroomoutput, zonder elke keer een volledige herontwerp te hoeven uitvoeren.

De lagere output opent ook nieuwe toepassingen, zoals energieproductie ter plaatse voor industriële locaties of militaire bases, wat kan helpen om operaties te decarboniseren die bijna onmogelijk met alleen hernieuwbare energie kunnen worden aangedreven.

“With SMRs, we have opened up a whole spectrum of customers.”

Rolls Royce CEO
Als extra bonus maakt de kleinere omvang van SMR’s het mogelijk ze te installeren op de locatie van “normale” fossiele‑brandstofcentrales, zoals ontmantelde kolencentrales, waardoor ze de reeds bestaande netinfrastructuur kunnen hergebruiken en de landvraag voor het project verminderen. Tenminste, zolang je goedkeuring krijgt van de Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) voor de Emergency Planning Zone van de kerncentrale, zoals NuScale deed na een slopende 7‑jaar proces om die goedkeuring te verkrijgen.

Source: NuScale

NuScale

NuScale’s Competitive Position

NuScale is one of the leading contenders in the race to mass-produce SMRs in Western countries, with only Russian and Chinese state companies ahead.

Notably, NuScale is the sole SMR technology certified by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).

Founded in 2007, the company was very early in betting on SMRs, at a time when nuclear energy in general looked like it was on a trajectory of permanent decline, especially after the 2011 Fukushima incident. So far, it has invested $2B in its technology and production process.

With 6 reactors currently in production, the company is heading towards its first commercial delivery, which is expected to be achieved around 2030.

Een modulair, maar bekend ontwerp

NuScale’s reactors VOYGR can be carried from the factory to power plant sites on the back of a very large truck. They each produce a 77 MWe (Mega Watts equivalents) or electrical capacity, with up to 12 modules possible by plant (924 MWe)

Source: NuScale

These reactors are expected to have a 60+ years lifespan.

The technology behind it is the tried-and-tested light-water nuclear (LWR) reactor. While it may be less innovative than other designs using thorium, high pressure, etc., this has helped secure regulators’ approval and de-risk the development process.

It also leverages the existing nuclear power supply chain, from sensors to uranium fuel assemblies, reactor cranes, and control systems.

Source: NuScale

These SMRs are also “walk-away safe”, meaning that they stay safe even with no human intervention, cooling down naturally if not maintained.

This includes another feature: an unlimited “coping period,” defined as the time between normal operations and irreversible damage to the reactor in case of an unscheduled shutdown. Most other light-water nuclear (LWR) reactors have a coping period of a few days, making them inherently less safe in case of a catastrophe.

NuScale reactors can also be restarted without an active power grid, a common limitation of most other reactor designs.

Source: NuScale

Toepassingen

Energie‑net

The obvious main application of nuclear power plants is producing electricity for the power grid. As efforts to decarbonize our energy mix are growing, so is the need for more electricity. This is because a lot of energy consumption today is not yet electrified, like transportation (gas-powered cars) or heating (oil or gas-fueled furnaces).

As NuScale’s SMRs can be implemented on the site of decommissioned coal power plants, they require very little investment in extra grid infrastructure to replace fossil fuel plants.

AI

The demand for power from data centers is expected to jump from 3-4% of total electricity consumption in 2023 to 11-12% in 2030. This is equivalent to the current electricity consumption of 1/3^rd of US homes.

An extra issue is that considering the tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars of capital invested in these data centers, continuous operations are a must. As we are talking of GW-scale consumption, relying on unstable and variable renewables can be a risky proposition.

This is why all big tech companies are now scrambling to imitate Microsoft with its deal for re-opening an entire nuclear power plant and lock its entire output for its AI data centers, and secure in advance stable nuclear power for themselves.

Industriële toepassingen

A lot of industrial processes require very high temperatures, often in the form of ultra-hot steam. This can for example include the production of paper, ammonia (a fertilizer and key component of explosives), steel, plastics, or even seawater desalination (one 77 MW reactor can provide the energy for 77 million gallons/290 million liter of water per day).

Source: NuScale

Currently, this sort of process, especially the one requiring the highest temperature, is in the immense majority powered by fossil fuels, especially natural gas.

This in theory can be advantageously replaced by nuclear power plants, especially as the electricity generation is already a result of the production of ultra-hot supercritical steam by the reactor core.

However, the traditional design of nuclear power plants had an output that was just too large to be easily integrated with a normal industrial operation like a steel mill. The regulatory and space constraints, as well as the lack of off-the-shelves modular designs, were a problem as well.

SMRs are able to alleviate all these objections at once, with lower output per unit, lower regulatory burden, and more flexible designs. NuScale reactors are expected to be able to produce 500,000 pounds of steam per hour, at 1,500 psia & 500°C.

Waterstof

As hydrogen is considered an alternative to fossil fuels, the way to produce the energy for hydrogen generation is still discussed. On the one hand, renewables could be cheaper on a per kW basis, but intermittency means that the expensive hydrogen generation plant might be idle for too long periods.

NuScale’s reactor could produce 50 metric tons of hydrogen per day, or the consumption of 38,000 cars with fuel cells.

Nuscale’s Business model

Even when small and modular, nuclear power plant projects are a major investment, with years of expenditure before starting to generate income from the energy generated, this makes their financing a task almost as crucial as the engineering and science itself.

NuScale has entered into a partnership with the private investment platform ENTRA-1 and the private asset management firm Habboush Group to answer this problem. Both investment firms specialize in energy and infrastructure financing and operation.

This offers flexible options to companies looking to implement SMR technology: They can either just purchase the energy produced, operate the plant, or own and operate the plant, depending on their preferences.

For example, an electric utility company with experience in nuclear power will likely want to directly own and operate the plant. However, a chemical plant will likely prefer to just sign a long-term purchase agreement for the produced high-temperature steam.

Lopende projecten

As the technological and regulatory hurdles are being pushed into the rear mirror, NuScale is now actively growing its order book. This so far includes projects on three continents, for example:

North America

• Standard Power in Ohio and Pennsylvania, for nearly “two gigawatts of clean, reliable energy”.
• The Prodigy Marine Power Station in Quebec has deployed 1-12 reactors for the production of clean fuels such as hydrogen and ammonia on a commercial scale.

Europe

• RoPower Nuclear: A project in Romania with Nuclearelectrica (the national nuclear power plant operator) to deploy 6 VOYGR reactors for 462 MWe of carbon-free electricity generation.
• KGHM Polska Miedź in Poland, to deploy VOYGR reactors as a coal repurposing solution for existing power plants, with deployment as early as 2029.
• Getka & UNIMOT in Poland, also to replace coal power plants.
• Energoatom in Ukraine, with the aim to deploy VOYGRs as soon as the war ends to rebuild the country’s energy grid.

Asia

• Indonesia Power, looking at a proposed 462-megawatt facility in partnership with Fluor Corporation, and Japan’s JGC Corporation.
• GS Energy in South Korea, for a 6 VOYGR reactors order that could start in 2028 and be completed by 2030 to supply the new hydrogen industrial complex in Uljin.

Financiën van NuScale

As the company starts to generate money from agreements like with RoPower in Romania, it is starting to have some revenues after almost 2 decades of “startup mode”.

Still, the company is experiencing around $50M net loss every quarter, reflective of the company’s operating expenses. This means that until it has started to fully sell and/or operate VOYGR reactors, the company will need more cash infusion to stay afloat.

Luckily, the stock price has recently gone up, which will help it raise more cash without diluting too much of its preexisting shareholders.

Potential investors should also be aware of the existence of 31.4M shares in the form of options and warrants, on top of the 252.2M shares outstanding (as of December 2024).

Source: NuScale

Conclusie

In a tightly regulated and very technically complex field, it can pay off tremendously to be a first mover. Not only does this give an advantage in reaching the market first, but it can even help a company shape the future of the regulatory environment and the potential customer’s expectations.

NuScale has been a trailblazer in SMR technology and is still leading the industry. Other nuclear technologies like thorium, molten salts, fast reactors, or floating power plants, could all be integrated into SMR. However, this adds another level of complexity which might prove an issue, both in engineering and with the regulators.

Instead, Nuscale focused on proven light water technology, simply changing its scale. This should help it move faster, and become the most known SMR stock in the market.

So potentially, after a stock market boom in segments like EVs and AI, the next step could be a boom in the energy generation able to power these sectors with carbon-neutral power.

Investors will need to remember however that energy generation is a very capital-intensive industry, and that nuclear power is moving slower than other tech sectors, meaning that patience and a high tolerance to volatility will be needed.