NASDAQ, 새로운 SEC 제출을 통해 예측 시장에 주목

This NASDAQ MRX exchange surprised investors with its recent filing with the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) to host 예측 시장 products. The filing has caused a stir for several reasons, ranging from the possibility of parallel markets emerging, all the way to disagreements about what regulators possess the ability to approve this move. Here’s what you need to know.
요약: The NASDAQ MRX exchange submitted an SEC filing seeking approval to offer prediction market products via its fully regulated infrastructure. If approved, it would represent a major step forward for the sector and help to legitimize the prediction market.

예측 시장이란 무엇인가?

The prediction market has been around for a while, but it wasn’t until the 2024 elections that these platforms began to gain popularity. A prediction market enables users to bet on a wide variety of categories.

Users purchase contracts to reflect their predictions on future events. These contracts are commonly offered in the form of yes/no tokens known as outcome shares. Notably, the price of the share is usually based on $1 but adjusted to reflect the trader sentiment.

Many of these systems adjust the share redemption price based on implied probability, meaning that if a share is $0.55, there is a 55% probability according to the current vote. Notably, these prices can be adjusted using several methods, including order books, liquidity pools, or AMM (automated market makers).

예측 시장이 대중 정서를 반영하는 이유

Prediction markets are now seen as much more than a loophole for gamblers. These platforms provide valuable insight into public opinion and have become so accurate at predicting certain events that they are now often cited as a source by analysts.

Interestingly, prediction markets have become increasingly accurate in their results. Notably, the platform Predictit was 93% accurate in 예측 political results in the last election, highlighting the growing influence and respect that these platforms continue to gain.

예측 시장의 유형

The top category for these networks is political prediction, reflecting the market’s connection to its 2024 and 2026 election hype. You can find increased traffic on these sites during election periods and other moments with heightened geopolitical stakes.

출처 – Kalshi

스포츠 예측 시장

The next most popular prediction category is sports. This sector expanded significantly as major global events like the Olympics and international soccer championships boosted traffic. Notably, major US sporting events have also seen a sudden influx of interest. These events include the NFL, NHL, and MLB championships and drafts.

재무 시장 예측

Another popular category on prediction sites is financial events. These can range from specific assets like Bitcoin’s

price hitting a set value, all the way to whether the Fed will lower interest rates. There are also predictions on stocks, GDP releases, CPI results, and more.

예측 시장 성장 및 통계

Interestingly, the prediction market gained a lot of attention during the 2024 elections, securing leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi as viable options for users. These networks facilitated billions in token sales, covering everything from election cycles to crypto integrations.

Notably, the prediction market has hit some recent milestones. In February, the prediction market reached $23.4B in monthly trading volume. This number represents a slight retraction from the $27.1B the market achieved a month prior.

This pullback isn’t seen as the start of a trend but rather a planned maneuver by platforms that want to balance their products with regulatory concerns. Keenly, analysts 예측 this market to reach $300B by the end of 2026, fueled by the entrance of institutional investors.

스와이프하여 스크롤 →

NASDAQ MRX 예측 시장 제출 설명

On 2026년 3월 2일, NASDAQ MRX, LLC filed (SR-MRX-2026-05) with the SEC exclusively. It focuses on two specific products – the NASDAQ-100 Index and its NASDAQ-100 Micro Index predictions. The products will enable traders to purchase contracts based on whether or not the index achieves certain values.

NASDAQ-100 지수란 무엇인가?

The NASDAQ-100 (NDX ) is a stock market index that tracks the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ exchange. It is heavily weighted toward technology firms and is widely used as a benchmark for growth stocks in the U.S. market.

NASDAQ-100 마이크로 지수란 무엇인가?

The Micro index  was designed to provide more accessibility to these assets. It is set up to represent 1/100th of the value of the NASDAQ. This lower value makes it easier for retail traders to access. As such, retail traders can leverage this unique fund to gain broad exposure to the market.

왜 NASDAQ의 예측 시장 제출이 역사적인가

This filing represents the first time an institutional-level exchange has sought to offer prediction market options on a major stock index. Specifically, the filing refers to the products as “Outcome Related Options.” These derivatives would come in two primary forms, range-bound and binary contracts, and provide cash-settled contracts ranging from $0.01 – $1.

SEC vs CFTC: 누가 예측 시장을 규제하는가?

Interestingly, the SEC and CFTC continue to joust over who has jurisdiction over prediction products. The current SEC chair, Paul Atkins, spoke to lawmakers on 2026년 2월 12일. During the discussion, he acknowledged that the structure of some prediction markets and the fact that they tie into the NASDAQ-100 would make them fall under SEC jurisdiction.

In response, the CFTC Chair, Michael Selig, submitted a 반박문 on 2026년 2월 17일. The amicus brief claims exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts and claims SEC encroachment. He argues that these are commodity derivatives at the end of the day and should follow the guidelines set out by the Commodities Exchange Act.

왜 NASDAQ은 CFTC 대신 SEC에 제출했는가

The filing represents a belief by NASDAQ MRX, LLC that these assets qualify as securities attached to a stock index. This maneuver enables them to avoid CFTC’s derivatives/event contract domain requirements and utilize their current brokers, eliminating the need to utilize new platforms.

NASDAQ 예측 제품의 장점

There are many benefits that these prediction market products bring to the table. For one, they open the door for more institutional investment liquidity. These products operate under the oversight and regulations that institutional investment firms require. As such, they could spawn an influx of liquidity to the sector.

NASDAQ이 예측 시장 인프라를 개선할 수 있는 방법

The sheer size and technology that NASDAQ provides should create a better UX. Already, company execs noted that their products would offer key advantages such as scalability, tighter spreads, and clearing through the Options Clearing Organization.

소매 접근성

Another major advantage is that more traders could access predictive market products across more platforms. Specifically, you could see these options appear on popular brokerage apps like Robinhood and Fidelity. This decision makes sense as it lowers the entry barrier by eliminating many of the onboarding restrictions.

NASDAQ 예측 시장이 승인되면 어떻게 되는가

There are several results that could occurectly following the approval of NASDAQ prediction markets. For one, it would fully legitimize this asset class by bringing itectly into the mainstream economy.

This move would also help to entice more institutional investors to participate in these markets, as they could utilize fully regulated options versus decentralized platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

As such, there are some analysts who predict that an approval will create completely parallel markets, reminiscent of how there are decentralized and centralized exchanges. These sectors would follow different rules as NASDAQ offerings will be kept to the highest regulatory standards.

하이브리드 예측 시장의 부상

If the NASDAQ prediction products secure approval, it could result in a flood of innovative products over the coming months. These products could be used to hedge volatility, provide more access to markets, and gain insight into potential market trends.

SEC와 CFTC 예측 시장의 차이점

When you look at the big picture, it would appear as if there’s little difference between what NASDAQ wants to offer under SEC regulations versus what other providers offer under CFTC options. Both products function in the same way, with traders purchasing yes or no tokens to represent their prediction.

핵심 차이점

However, when you zoom in, there are several key differences worth noting, including differences in structure, access, and regulatory requirements. For example, the NASDAQ products are viewed as securities, and as such, they are cleared using the Options Clearing Corporation. Conversely, CFTC-regulated platforms’ assets are designated as event derivatives.

투자자는 NASDAQ 예측 시장에 어떻게 접근할 수 있는가

There are also differences regarding who can access these assets. The NASDAQ-100 prediction market will require a standard brokerage account. As such, traders can stick with reputable options like Schwab, Fidelity, and more. In comparison, CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi can only be accessed via their proprietary portal.

NASDAQ이 제공하려는 계약 유형

Another major difference in these two approaches is the products offered. The recent filing limits the predictions to the NASDAQ-100 index levels. This approach is in stark contrast to the majority of prediction markets that continue to have a strong focus on political and sports events.

스와이프하여 스크롤 →

NASDAQ 예측 시장이 직면한 규제 위험

It’s vital to understand that the NASDAQ has its work cut out for it, and approval is by no means guaranteed for these products. There has been a lot of debate surrounding the products from both consumer protection and regulatory bodies.

Additionally, the fact that the SEC and CFTC continue to bicker over who has jurisdiction over these products is another factor that could result in delays. Also, competitors have expressed concerns over this product and how it would alter the market.

예측 시장을 둘러싼 도박법 우려

Notably, prediction markets don’t fall under federal gambling regulations currently in the US. However, there are several states that have gambling laws forbidding these products. For example, New York, Maryland, and Montana have all banned prediction markets. Also, critics continue to point out similarities between these platforms and popular betting platforms.

Specifically, they cite the ability to wager on outcomes as the primary reason. Those opposing these products continue to argue that these products should fall under gambling restrictions. They also point to a lack of transparency on tax rates on winnings.

주요 예측 시장 플랫폼

The prediction market continues to expand as more platforms seek to get in on the hype. There are currently a few major players that dominate the sector. These platforms conduct billions in monthly transactions and can be seen as the catalyst for the prediction market’s expansion into institutional finance. Here’s one leading predictive market available to traders today.

Polymarket – 최대 규모의 암호화폐 예측 시장

Polymarket launched in 2020 as Union Market during the COVID pandemic quarantine. The platform’s founder, Shayne Coplan, saw the potential of the platform to help fight misinformation and skewed reporting.

목표는 대중의 관점을 조명하는 베팅 플랫폼을 만드는 것이었습니다. 그는 정치, 스포츠, 금융, 대중 문화에 초점을 맞추어 전통적인 베팅 옵션보다 더 흥미로운 것을 찾는 젊은 세대에게 어필했습니다. 특히, 초기 베팅 중 하나는 뉴욕시가 COVID 봉쇄에서 언제 재개될지에 대한 것이었습니다.

2022년, Polymarket은 CFTC와 문제에 직면했으며, 140만 달러의 벌금을 부과받았습니다. 회사는 등록되지 않은 스와프 실행 시설로 운영된 것으로 판단되어 중지 명령을 받았습니다.

인상적으로도, Polymarket은 CFTC와 협력해 규정을 준수하도록 복귀했으며, 해외에서 운영을 지속할 수 있게 되었습니다. 이 조치는 플랫폼이 2024년 선거에 참여하게 했으며, 그 결과에 36억 달러 이상의 베팅이 이루어졌습니다.

Since then, the platform’s founder has become one of the younger self-made billionaires. Notably,  Polymarket continues to attract lots of new traders seeking to get in on the hype or just to share their predictions.

NASDAQ의 예측 시장 제출이 투자자에게 의미하는 바

There are several factors that make this filing a game-changer. For one, it would alter the entire scope of the prediction market, opening it up to a flood of institutional funding. Also, it has the potential to create entirely new asset classes in the traditional financial sector. Of course, all of this will depend on the SEC, CFTC, and NASDAQ reaching some sort of reasonable agreement in the coming weeks.

더 흥미로운 시장 동향에 대해 여기에서 알아보세요.