Trump 2.0: Forutsigelser om hvordan en andre periode kan omforme teknologi

En ny presidentperiode for Trump innebærer mer enn et regjeringsskifte; den kan endre hvordan teknologi reguleres, finansieres og integreres i verdensøkonomien. Trumps første periode var preget av deregulering, proteksjonistisk handelspolitikk og en uforutsigbar tilnærming til globale allianser. En mer erfaren og ideologisk fastlåst administrasjon i den andre perioden kan føre disse tendensene enda lenger, med kortsiktig vekst i enkelte sektorer og langsiktig ustabilitet i andre.

Prediction #1: Et mer volatilt, mindre forutsigbart teknologimiljø

Technology is already at an inflection point. AI is evolving faster than regulatory bodies can track, crypto is oscillating between mainstream adoption and regulatory crackdowns, and social media is undergoing a structural shift as platforms realign along political and ideological lines. Add to this Trump’s tendency for abrupt policy changes—loosening industry restrictions one day, escalating trade tensions the next—and the result is a deeply uncertain business climate.

For Silicon Valley vil det være klare gevinster. Trumps administrasjon forventes å avvikle mange av reguleringene som har bremset AI-utviklingen, fjerne juridiske og byråkratiske hindringer for kryptovalutautvidelse, og redusere antitrust-håndhevelsen – noe som gir store teknologiselskaper mer frihet til å kjøpe opp konkurrenter og konsolidere makt. Dette vil skape en bølge av investeringer, produktlanseringer og avtaleinngåelser.

Men det finnes en annen side av denne ligningen. Trump har gjort det klart at han ser handel som et nullsumspill, og hans andre periode vil sannsynligvis komme med nye tollsatser og restriksjoner mot Kina. Gitt at en stor del av halvlederindustrien er avhengig av Kina for produksjon og Taiwan for chipproduksjon, kan forsyningskjeder bli kastet inn i kaos, noe som øker kostnadene og begrenser tilgangen til viktige materialer. Immigrasjonsrestriksjoner kan ytterligere redusere talentbasen innen AI og ingeniørfag, og gjøre det vanskeligere for amerikanske selskaper å forbli konkurransedyktige globalt.

Short-term, this deregulation-first approach will create a flurry of innovation. Long-term, the volatility it introduces—particularly in global supply chains and labor markets—could create new constraints that are harder to unwind.

Prediction #2: AI vil vokse raskere, og bli mer risikabelt

One of the first moves from the new administration was to rescind Biden’s executive order on AI, removing key regulatory provisions that required AI developers to disclose safety testing results. The assumption in Silicon Valley is that this means the government is stepping back from regulating AI altogether. That may not be entirely true.

Trump has expressed little interest in regulating AI at a federal level, but that doesn’t mean AI companies are free from oversight. What it likely means is that regulation will shift from proactive to reactive. Instead of clear, preemptive rules about what companies can and can’t do, regulation will come in response to crises—AI-powered financial fraud, deepfake-driven election interference, or catastrophic failures in self-driving technology. This approach makes it easier for AI firms to experiment aggressively in the short term but could lead to more dramatic regulatory overcorrections when something inevitably goes wrong.

There’s also the international dimension. The EU is already moving forward with some of the most comprehensive AI regulations in the world, and China is creating its own AI governance frameworks. If the U.S. remains an outlier, it could push American firms toward riskier, more unregulated business models—creating an innovation advantage but also increasing systemic risks.

Prediction #3: Krypto og blokkjedeteknologi får ny vind

During his first term, Trump showed little interest in cryptocurrency. That has changed. His 2024 campaign accepted donations in Bitcoin, and his allies in Congress have signaled a shift toward a more favorable regulatory climate for digital assets.

Et av de tydeligste signalene kom fra SEC, som nylig opprettet en kryptotaskforce under kommissær Hester Peirce – bredt ansett som en av de få kryptovennlige stemmene i etaten. Målet, ifølge insiders, er å skape et klarere og mer forretningsvennlig rammeverk for digitale eiendeler, og løse den juridiske usikkerheten som har hemmet industrien.

A second Trump term is unlikely to bring a free-for-all in crypto, but it will likely introduce a framework that shifts regulation toward disclosure rather than prohibition—emphasizing transparency in digital asset markets rather than trying to ban or severely restrict them. That’s good news for institutional investors and firms working on blockchain-based financial products, as regulatory clarity has been one of the biggest obstacles to broader adoption.

Prediction #4: En boom i M&A og privat investering

The previous Trump administration was characterized by sweeping deregulation efforts, and that trend is expected to continue. One of the most immediate impacts will be a resurgence in mergers and acquisitions, particularly in tech, where companies have been hesitant to pursue deals due to regulatory uncertainty.

Dette er i ferd med å endre seg. En rapport fra Morgan Stanley (MS ) forutsier en 40–50 % økning i M&A‑volumet i 2025, drevet av teknologi, energi og helsevesen. Teknologigiganter med massive kontantreserver – Apple (AAPL ) alene har over 160 milliarder dollar – vil utnytte den lempede antitrust‑kontrollen for å kjøpe opp AI‑oppstartsbedrifter og skytjenestefirmaer.

Private equity is also poised for a comeback. With $2.5 trillion in undeployed capital, firms like Blackstone and KKR are expected to be aggressive buyers in 2025, particularly in AI and cybersecurity.

Prediction #5: Fragmenteringen av sosiale medier akselererer

One of the more overlooked shifts in technology over the past few years has been the ideological re‑alignment of social media platforms. In the past, social media was a largely unified space—Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube captured the majority of attention, and political content coexisted within those platforms. That is no longer the case.

Med Elon Musks overtakelse av Twitter (nå X) og Mark Zuckerbergs lansering av Threads, blir sosiale medier i økende grad delt langs politiske linjer. Trenden akselererer: Bluesky, et desentralisert alternativ til Twitter, så en 519 % økning i bruk i USA etter valget i 2024, ifølge SimilarWeb. Samtidig får konservative plattformer som Truth Social og Rumble økt oppslutning som alternative medieøkosystemer.

The return of Trump will likely accelerate this trend. As traditional platforms either embrace or resist his influence, users will self-sort into distinct online communities. This has significant implications for both the information ecosystem and the ad‑driven business model that underpins social media. Advertisers, wary of associating with politically polarizing content, may begin to rethink their strategies, further reshaping how these platforms operate.

Prediction #6: Overgangen til elbiler bremser—men stopper ikke

Within days of taking office, Trump paused funding for electric vehicle incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act, signaling a shift away from the pro‑EV policies of the Biden administration. He has also pledged to roll back emissions regulations that require automakers to transition toward EVs.
This will likely slow, but not halt, the transition to electric vehicles. The U.S. auto industry has already invested billions into EV infrastructure, and consumer demand for EVs—though still fluctuating—continues to grow. Automakers will likely adjust their strategies, shifting more of their investment toward hybrid vehicles or focusing on overseas markets where government incentives remain strong.

What Comes Next?

Perioder med deregulering, politisk ustabilitet og rask teknologisk utvikling skaper gjerne muligheter, men øker også risikoen. Investorer, selskaper og beslutningstakere må vurdere hvordan kortsiktige gevinster kan få langsiktige konsekvenser. Dagens lemping av regulering kan utløse morgendagens overkorreksjoner, og bransjene som lykkes de neste fire årene, kan være de som er best forberedt på tiden etterpå.