Investering 101
Afrikanske markeder står overfor økende smittefare fra USA og Kina
Reaksjonene fra mindre økonomier og markeder på globale sjokk kan variere kraftig avhengig av deres viktigste handelspartnere, kilde til utenlandske investeringer og samlet eksponering mot ulike økonomiske sektorer eller større land.
This is especially true for African economies, as they are generally smaller than the major European, North American, or Asian economic blocs. In addition, half of its multi-billion-dollar GDP is driven by only three nations: Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa.
“African markets were recipients of systematic shocks and spillovers. Larger African economies act as sources of systematic shocks to smaller, closely integrated markets.”
Due to their smaller size, lower liquidity, and higher exposure to external influences, these markets are also especially vulnerable to “herding”: when individuals abandon independent analysis to mimic group behaviour, leading to knock-on effects such as asymmetric information supply, liquidity issues, rapid-fire margin calls, and market frictions.
As such, African-market exposure is increasingly shaped by U.S. dollar liquidity, Chinese trade and capital flows, volatility shocks, and currency transmission channels. But this exposure is not identical on a country-by-country basis.
A recent research paper by two researchers at Keio University in Japan analyzes this relation between market herding in Africa and the relation of these economies and markets to the world’s two largest economies: China and America.
It was published in Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics1, under the title “Hva driver aksjemarkedets flokkatferd i Afrika: Innvirkning fra Amerika og Kina”.
Oversikt over afrikanske markeder
Africa is made up of 54 countries, but the bulk of the economic output is concentrated in a handful of countries, with Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa accounting for almost half of the region’s GDP, and Ethiopia, Algeria, Kenya, and Morocco accounting for a large part of the rest of the continent’s GDP.
Many of these countries are considered “risk-on” markets, where investors feel confident and optimistic about the economy, prompting them to move capital into higher-risk, higher-reward assets.
Kilde: Visual Capitalist
Such dynamic markets can grow quickly in relative terms, but are also particularly vulnerable to investor exits. This can then result in currency depreciation, reduced real returns in local markets, increased price volatility, decreased government spending, rising poverty levels, widening sovereign spreads, and credit rating/outlook downgrades by international agencies.
Another known element about the African region economies as a whole is that larger African economies act as sources of systematic shocks to smaller, closely integrated markets. So analyzing these larger economies’ reaction to external shocks can give information about the effect on the continent’s economy at large.
Hva studien fant
Innsamling av riktig data
The researchers gathered data around four different global economic shocks that affect the African economies linked to either the USA or China:
- Hendelse 1: The Chinese Financial Crisis (2015.06.12–2016.02.15).
- Hendelse 2: The increase of American interest rates (2015.12.17–2018.12.20).
- Hendelse 3: The COVID-19 Crisis (2019.12.16–2020.03.31).
- Hendelse 4: American interest rates in 2022 (2022.03.17 – 2022.12.14).
Thomson Reuters closing price data was used to assess the impact of these crises on African countries’ markets.
The analysis concentrated on Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa, as these three countries represent the bulk of the region’s GDP and the main source of transmission of external shocks to their neighbors.
Demonstrasjon av flokkatferd under krise
The researchers found that all three of these countries have clear and well-defined herding in their markets. Therefore, at least 56% of Africa’s GDP is highly susceptible to global turmoil.
The importance of herding was apparent for each of these markets. For example, the reaction to the Chinese Financial Crisis of 2015 was brutal.
“The Chinese Financial Crisis, started in mid-juni 2015, and on the 24th august 2015, saw ‘Black Monday’ occur, shortly followed by ‘Black Tuesday’, resulting in 16% local market loss.”
An exception was, however, for the increase of American interest rates in 2015-2018, where only the South African economy was directly impacted. In large part, this was because South Africa has the most financially integrated market in Africa and is the only African country in the world’s top 20 largest markets. In addition, South Africa’s stock market trading activity is valued at 87% of its GDP, whilst Egypt was 4.2%, Nigeria 0.6%, making purely financial market shocks that much more impactful.
Ulike påvirkninger fra ulike økonomiske bånd
Nigeria
For Nigeria, the role and connection to the US economy are shown to be growing in this study, with the impact of external crisis and the US impact on Nigeria growing over time.
“America’s influence increases progressively across events: it begins at 43.55% in Crisis 1, surpasses the halfway mark to 51.01% in Crisis 2, and reaches 55.76% in Crisis 3. By Event 4, the pink herding clusters appear predominantly around America’s VIX and forex vectors, confirming its growing structural dominance in Nigeria’s market dynamics.”
In large part, this is likely because Nigeria is a very oil-dependent country, with also a lot of impact of remittance from Western countries, Western foreign aid, and Western foreign investments.
Egypt
In contrast to Nigeria, Egypt’s economy is deeply and increasingly tied to China’s expanding financial and trade influence.
“The CSAD–PC methodology, which evaluates the weighted index of constituent variables, identifies China as the stronger overall contributor, accounting for between 47.33% and 54.05% of total weight and surpassing 50% in all events except Event 2.”
In particular, Egypt’s financial system is especially sensitive to exchange-rate volatility, with America and China’s Forex vectors one of the main means of propagation of external crises to the country.
Following bilateral agreements in 2016, Chinese investment in Egypt increased by over 300% between 2017 and 2022, while American investment declined by approximately 30%
Over the same period, China’s influence expands through an increasing number of active variable vectors, with herding clusters successively forming around its stock market, VIX, and forex components.
Sør-Afrika
As a more developed and internationally connected economy, South Africa appears equally influenced by the USA and China, even if America holds slightly higher values in the first and third events, but since the range is narrow, 48.55%–52.31%.
South Africa is the only African country with a consistently strong influence from both America and China’s forex variables on herding, which shows a stable relationship over time.
The role of the foreign exchange rate in the South African reaction to external shock is especially large, in part due to the structure of the country’s economy and main exports.
“Forex dominance may be attributed to South Africa’s position as a major commodity exporter, ranked first globally for platinum and chromium—a trade that is dollar-dominated.”
International agreements and treaties also matter a lot, and are in large part responsible for South Africa’s strong connection to the Chinese economy.
“The comparable forex influence of China may be linked to the 2015 currency swap agreement between the two countries. oth are also members of the BRICS intergovernmental organization that promotes trade, and together, China and South Africa account for 21% of Sino–Africa trade value”
Et endrende Afrika og internasjonalt handelslandskap
Investors in Africa should be aware of how vulnerable to external shocks and herding behaviours the economies in this region can be. This is true for the top 3 major economies of South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria, but also the rest of the continent.
So local conditions are not the only important factor, but investors should treat U.S. monetary policy, Chinese growth conditions, and FX volatility as distinct portfolio-risk variables rather than generic emerging-market risks.
In that context, it is neither China nor the USA that needs to be taken into account, but both, albeit the relative importance can vary depending on a country-by-country basis.
“Africa, empirically represented by Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa, was found to herd during ‘risk-on’ events. This paper deconstructed the relationship between Africa and the U.S. and China, finding that both superpowers significantly influence African markets.”
In addition, this dynamic is not static but quickly evolving. As China becomes a trade superpower and flexes its geopolitical muscles with initiatives like the BRICS, it could increasingly become a larger or dominant driving force impacting Africa’s economic growth and crises.
“While America remains the world’s largest economy, China’s strategic initiatives have ensured its significant influence in Africa as well. ”
Investering i afrikanske markeder
iShares MSCI Sør-Afrika ETF
For most investors, exposure to Africa can be a good way to access a dynamic market with a young population, abundant natural resources, and rapid economic growth. It is also a very unstable region, both in terms of local politics and economic growth, with herding behavior and external shock potentially causing major volatility spikes.
An easy way to gain such exposure is through dedicated ETFs, which spread the investment over dozens of different companies. The largest Africa-focused ETF is the iShares MSCI South Africa ETF, with 33 companies within its holdings.
The ETF is mostly exposed to financial stocks, giving indirect exposure to the rest of the economy, and the materials sector, a logical effect of the importance of natural resources extraction in African economies.
Kilde: MSCI
Its top #5 holdings in juli 2026 were the precious metal miner Anglo Gold Ashanti (ANG ), the Internet/Telecom provider Nasper (NPN ), the gold miner Gold Fields (GFI ), and the banks and financial service providers Firstrand (FSR ), and Standard Bank Group (SBK ),
(EZA )
Siste iShares MSCI Sør-Afrika ETF (EZA) aksjenyheter og utviklinger
Studie referert
1. Marija Tatomir and Norio Hibiki. Hva driver aksjemarkedets flokkatferd i Afrika: Innvirkning fra Amerika og Kina. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics. Volume 489, 1 januar 2027, 117861. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cam.2026.117861
