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Texas Instruments (TXN): Amerika’nın Analog Çip Lideri

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Texas Instruments: Amerika’nın Öncü Analog Yarı İletken Üreticisi

The tech and semiconductor industries tend to be very focused on the “new big thing”. It can be the latest, most powerful type of chips, like 3nm node chips, where TSMC is leading (TSM ), or the most advanced manufacturing method, like EUV, a monopoly of ASML (ASML ), or AI hardware from Nvidia (NVDA ) (follow the links for a report of these companies).

Ancak, dünyanın kullandığı birçok yarı iletken en yeni, en gelişmiş teknoloji değildir. Bunun yerine, otomobiller, radyolar, çamaşır makineleri, hafif cihazlar ve ayrıca tanklar, füzeler ve savaş gemileri gibi cihazlarda kullanılan elektronik bileşen türüdür.

Bu yüzden, hacim açısından en büyük yarı iletken şirketlerini incelerken, teknoloji yatırımcıları tarafından daha az konuşulan bir isim öne çıkar. ABD ve Batı ülkeleri için giderek stratejik hale gelen bir şirket; Çinli tedarikçilere bağımlılığı azaltarak endüstriyel yarı iletken tedarik zincirini güvence altına almaya çalışıyor: Texas Instruments.

(TXN )

Texas Instruments Genel Bakış

Texas Instruments Tarihi ve Dönüm Noktaları

Founded in 1930, Texas Instruments is still headquartered in Dallas to this day. Maybe an archetypal Texan story, the company started as an oil exploration company called Geophysical Service Incorporated (GSI).

On the eve of WW2, it realized that oil-exploration technology could also be used for submarine detection, and GSI began manufacturing military electronics for the government.

The company changed its focus to military electronics, changed its name to Texas Instruments in 1951, and was listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 1953.

In the 1950s, TI produced the first portable transistor radio in 1954 and soon became a primary vendor to rapidly growing IBM (IBM ).

TI embraced technological innovation early, with the switch from germanium transistors to silicon transistors as early as 1954. In 1958, a company engineer, Jack Kilby, invented the silicon-based integrated circuit.

In 1971, Texas Instruments created the first portable calculators and received the first patents on a microprocessor.

The company, however, failed to grab the high-end consumer electronics markets in the 1980s and 1990s, and would ultimately rebound thanks to contracts for military and commercial electronic components by developing the first inverse synthetic aperture radar and the first single-chip gallium arsenide radar module. The defense segment was sold to Raytheon in 1997.

The rest of the business was now focused on analog technology (see below). In 2011, Texas Instruments acquired National Semiconductor for $6.5B. The deal turned TI into the world’s largest maker of analog technology components.

To this day, analog semiconductors form the core of the company, making 3/4th of its revenues. The two largest markets of the company are today automotive and industrial goods, followed by personal electronics.

TI’nın Analog ve Gömülü Yarı İletken Teknolojisi

Most of the world’s computers, smartphones, data centers, etc., run on digital signals. They are encoding data using specific, distinct values, typically represented in binary code (0s and 1s).

In contrast, analog signals are characterized by their continuous, smoothly varying nature. They can take an infinite number of values within a specified range.

Kaynak: Byjus

In general, digital signals are more precise and less sensitive to interference, especially for data transmission. They are also easier to replicate.

Analog signals are ideal for representing variables that are consistently changing, like sound, temperature, pressure, or chemical composition.

For example, analog audio systems can capture and reproduce sound waves with greater accuracy, preserving the subtleties and nuances of the original sound.

Because analog components provide immediate feedback, they are ideal for applications where timing is critical, like audio and video processing.

Analog electronics components also consume less power. They tend to be, as a rule, cheaper and more durable than more precise but expensive & fragile digital electronics.

Designing analog systems is however more complex, as they are overall less flexible than the more programmable digital components.

Texas Instruments İşletmesi

Sayısal Verilerle

As the world economy grows and more and more equipment incorporates semiconductor components, it consumes more chips and other electronic parts.

This is a rather cyclical market, with current shipments below 2019 levels, but following a long-term trend of growing consumption.

This has, however, not impacted Texas Instruments’ revenue growth, with an overall 7% CAGR performance in the past decade, and 13% CAGR in its core market of industrial and automotive markets.

The industrial and automotive sectors have grown from about 40% in 2014 to about 70% of TI’s revenue in 2024.

In total, the company sells more than 80,000 different products, produced by 34,000+ employees, reflecting the depth of the company’s catalog. In total, the company produces tens of billions of chips every year.

Overall, Texas Instruments has a very diversified client base, with more than 100,000 customers, making it a key supplier for many industries and services.

Most of the chips produced by Texas Instruments are so-called “mature”, with node sizes ranging from 28nm to 130nm, making them tried-and-tested technologies.

The company’s main facilities are in the USA, Japan, Europe, and China, with several assembly/test sites in Taiwan and Southeast Asia.

Otomotiv

The automotive market is driven by the increasing complexity of electronics in cars, with many sensors, power switches, cameras, radar, etc.

In general, the rise of EVs and hybrids also pushes the car manufacturers to increase the digital content in cars and provide the car systems with a much larger power supply than in ICE cars.

Endüstriyel

The industrial market covers many “invisible” parts of equipment like power tools, motors, appliances, medical devices, aerospace, IoT, etc.

Another sector of great interest is robotics, where analog sensors and controls can be a lot more flexible, energy-efficient, and match real-life input/output than digital signals (see below).

The industrial customer base is very diverse, with each industrial customer purchasing thousands of products across TI’s portfolio.

Diğerleri

In the other sectors, energy is a growing activity for Texas Instruments, notably as a complete solar system (panel + inverter + storage) that contains 200+ chips per system, for a value of approximately $350.

Smart power grid automation and protection also benefit from TI products.

Building systems like smart thermostats, door locks, and appliances that can sense motion, humidity, or temperature is also a quickly growing market.

Space technology, a booming sector thanks to quickly declining costs to reach orbit, could also benefit the sector of analog electronics. Their robustness and higher reliability in high radiation environments make them a good choice for most satellites and space systems over digital ones.

“Satellite operators have to rely on radiation-hardened components, manufactured in accordance with the military specification. At TI, we offer different device classifications that help our customers balance the needs of their system.

We deliver products to help meet the system-level specifications and address reliability needs with our broad offering of radiation-hardened and radiation-tolerant devices.”

Laura Mueller – Director of Aerospace and Defense at Texas Instruments

Texas Instruments’ın Rekabet Pozisyonu

Texas Instruments has built its analog chip business in such a way that it can rely on 4 major competitive advantages:

Portföy Büyüklüğü

The broad portfolio means that customers can rely on TI to provide most or often all of the analog chips and semiconductor components they need when designing their products. This also increases the number of sales per customer, reducing the costs associated with customer acquisitions and account management.

Satış Kapsamı ve Doğrudan Satış

Due to the company’s reputation, global presence, and large sales teams, the company generates more sales per representative.

This strong presence also gives the company more insights into its customers’ needs and market trends, helping it stay at the leading edge of its industry.

Texas Instruments has recently undergone a radical shift in its sales methods, making it a lot easier to directly buy from TI instead of relying on distributors. This was done through a rebuilding of the company’s online presence, making it easy to purchase directly from the company’s website.

This overall contributed to higher growth through access to more customers, projects, sockets per project, and greater insight.

Ürün Ömür Uzunluğu

Most of TI’s products stay relevant for a lot longer and at more stable prices than is common in the semiconductor industry. At the same time, the latest chip used in smartphones might be “outdated” in 2-3 years, most of TI’s chips are still relevant, 10-20 years or more.

If anything, once a chip is validated and trusted into industrial equipment or for an automotive design, it will stay in production for as long as these designs are on the market, and will still see a lot of demand from maintenance and repair after.

The longer longevity of products also means that capital investment in new foundries can be amortized over a much longer time, reducing the capital intensity of TI’s business compared to the rest of the semiconductor industry.

Maliyet ve 300mm Fab’lar

TI uses 300 mm (0.3 meter) silicon wafers vs 200 mm, the standard used by most of the competition.

Because the 300mm wafers are larger, they can fit more chips for each engraving step, allowing TI to produce its chips 40% cheaper, and overall increasing gross margin by 8%.

This gives TI a strong advantage during downturns, where it can tolerate lower prices better than its competitors, and keep idle capacity to rebound quickly during boom periods.

The company is building a massive extension of capacity for 300mm fabs (“foundries”), with its plans extending as far as 2035 for growing production.

TI produces 95% of its own silicon wafers, giving it a great deal of control and safety over its supply chain. This also greatly reduces potential geopolitical vulnerabilities.

Another part of vertical integration is the ability to do the testing and packaging of the chips internally, contrary to the practice in more cutting-edge digital chips, helping the company cut costs.

Texas Instruments’ın Geleceği

Robotik ve Yeniden Endüstrileşme

Smart factories are currently a strong driver of increasing demand for analog chips, as industrial robots, moving assembly lines, and other sensors are becoming increasingly important.

A reason for robots to rely strongly on analog devices is their ability to handle real-life input in a continuous fashion while also consuming little energy.

In general, the goal of relocating industries to the USA will be to support a lot of semiconductor consumption at every level of the supply chain, from machine tools to finished products, each demanding made-in-America semiconductor chips.

Savunma

The purely defense-focused type of electronic components, like radar sensors, are no longer in the portfolio of Texas Instruments.

However, the need to diversify supply chains away from China means that a nascent domestic industry for drone production is required to adapt the US military to modern warfare tactics, as illustrated by the war in Ukraine.

As a result, the supply of cheap and reliable semiconductors made domestically will be important as well and represent further growth potential for Texas Instruments.

Innovation in the sector can also help capture market share, for example, better battery load prediction.

Sermaye Stratejisi

Satın Alma

Historically, Texas Instruments’ growth has been a mix of acquisitions and organic growth. For example, it has made no less than 15 major acquisitions since 1996, besides National Semiconductor in 2011.

Technological innovation is today a little less important for TI than it was in the early 1950s-1970s. Instead, the company is focused on producing the best chips at the lowest cost, as illustrated by its massive effort to shift toward manufacturing using 300mm wafers.

Sermaye Tahsisi

As a result of the company’s strategy, capital expenditure is a greater focus. Overall, the company expects to spend between $2-5B in capex per year until 2030.

Operating cash flow has been growing in the past few years, and is enough to support the planned capex.

The company is targeting 25-35% of revenues to be converted into free cash flow.

40-80% of this free cash flow is expected to be converted into dividends, with the rest used for share repurchases, leading to all cash returns being distributed to shareholders. This puts Texas Instruments in the 95th % percentile of the S&P 500 in terms of cash returns as a percentage of revenues.

Dividends have been steadily rising over the past years, growing at 10% CAGR in the past 5 years, and 16% CAGR in the past decade.

Meanwhile, shares outstanding have been reduced by 47% since 2004.

Considering the surge in capex since 2021, and the coming online of many new 300mm fabs in 2025 and the subsequent years, Texas Instruments’ production is expected to grow significantly.

The lower production costs should help it gain more market share against its competitors, on top of the general long-term growth trend of the sector and the US reindustrialization trend.

“We will remain focused on the belief that long-term growth of free cash flow per share is the ultimate measure to generate value. We will invest to strengthen our competitive advantages, be disciplined in capital allocation and stay diligent in our pursuit of efficiencies.”

Sonuç

Texas Instruments, yarı iletken endüstrisinin çok önemli ancak bazen unutulan bir parçasıdır. Yıllar içinde, “eski” çipler ve diğer yarı iletken ürünlerde olağanüstü bir uzmanlık geliştirmiştir; bu ürünler, endüstriyel ve otomotiv üretiminin her seviyesinde vazgeçilmezdir.

Modası geçmiş olmaktan uzak, analog yarı iletkenler, daha ucuz ve güvenilir üretim süreçleriyle üretilen “yeterince iyi” çiplerin, daha güçlü hesaplamalar yapabilen ancak daha az güvenilir yeni çiplere kıyasla üstün sonuçlar vermesini sağlayan doğal avantajlara sahiptir.

Robotik, fabrika zeminlerinin ötesine genişlerken, ucuz drone teknolojisinin önemi ve ABD hükümetinin yeniden endüstrileşme hedefleri bağlamında, Texas Instruments bu durumdan faydalanmak için ideal konumdadır.

Şirket, bu fırsata büyük yatırımlar yapmıştır; önümüzdeki yıllarda tamamlanmış veya tamamlanmakta olan birçok yeni 300 mm fabrika bulunmaktadır.

En Son Texas Instruments (TXN) Hisse Senedi Haberleri ve Gelişmeler

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Jonathan eski bir biyokimya araştırmacısıdır ve genetik analiz ve klinik çalışmalar üzerinde çalışmıştır. Şimdi bir hisse analisti ve finans yazarıdır ve yayınında 'The Eurasian Century' da inovasyon, piyasa döngüleri ve jeopolitika üzerine odaklanmaktadır.