Optimism (OP) dan Sui (SUI) Turun Menjelang Pembukaan Token Masing-Masing

Ethereum layer-two scaling solution Optimism and Move-based layer-one blockchain Sui are set to welcome token unlock events that will bump up their respective token circulating supplies later this week. Here is what you need to know:

OP menghadapi tekanan penjualan hampir $600 juta akibat pembukaan token yang akan datang

Ethereum scaling protocol Optimism protocol is gearing up for its third token unlock since community allocation unlocking began at the token’s launch around a year ago. Last May, the layer-two blockchain previously completed a controversial community airdrop with an initial vesting period for early investors and contributors ending today.

Wednesday’s event will thus be the first unlock for early contributors and investors, after which unlocking will happen linearly at a monthly rate of approx. 1.5% of the total supply. The upcoming event is expected to increase the token’s circulating supply by almost double, with more than 386 million OP tokens scheduled to enter circulation. Optimism conducted a second major airdrop involving more than 11 million OP tokens earlier in February, delivering the supply to 307,000 unique addresses. The total supply is expected to be fully in circulation by Juni 2026.

Dampak pada harga dan dinamika pasar

Optimism’s current circulating supply and trading volumes figures are relatively small compared to the size of the impending unlock. The average daily volume is around $70 million, with Binance and CoinDCX accounting for significant portions. Given the disparity in volume, the token unlock is projected to introduce massive selling pressure among holders. The current market volume also suggests that there will be insufficient demand to absorb the unlocked tokens, potentially leading to a price impact.

“Optimism memiliki pembukaan besar minggu ini dengan lebih dari 114% dari pasokan beredar saat ini yang dibuka. Jika semua hal lain tetap sama, ini berarti token seharusnya diperdagangkan jauh lebih rendah daripada sekarang, karena harga merupakan fungsi dari penawaran dan permintaan. Lebih banyak pasokan = harga lebih rendah,” kata analis Scimitar Capital, Alex di Twitter pada Twitter.

The influx of tokens also comes on the back of thin market depth, meaning that even a relatively small sell-off could cause a -2% price movement on both Binance and CoinDCX. Analysts also reckon some early OP investors currently sitting on gains may consider taking profits by dumping their holdings, mounting even more selling pressure. Algorithmic trading firm Wintermute has seemingly moved to relinquish its OP supply. Blockchain data analytics team Spot on Chain observed earlier that the DeFi platform has transferred 2.651 million OP tokens (worth roughly $4.3 million) to a Binance wallet address in the last two days.

Grafik TVL Optimism. Sumber:L2Beat

Optimism’s Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) currently stands at $6.6 billion, 50% smaller than its main competitor, Arbitrum, whose FDV stands at $12.2 billion. FDV-to-revenue ratio comparison indicates that OP token is undervalued compared to Arbitrum. That said, it’s worth noting that both protocols are still in nascent phases, and the high FDV-to-sales ratio may not be significantly meaningful at this stage. The more reasonable FDV-to-total value locked (TVL) ratios for each token, however, still suggest that OP may be overvalued.

To learn more about Optimism, check out our Investing in Optimism guide.

Stabilitas keuangan dan perspektif investor

The research platform also assessed Optimism’s financial stability, noting that revenue has significantly grown over the past 90-180 days. Nonetheless, the net income has primarily remained negative or zero throughout the project’s lifespan, indicating that the protocol is not consistently generating revenue and profit. Current investors, including Paradigm, IDEO CoLab Ventures, and Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), acquired OP at an average purchase price of approximately $0.2445 per token. Their investments have blown up by an average of 6x, which might incentivize some of them to reduce risk and sell their holdings.

Pasangan OP/USD vs ARB/USD. Sumber:TradingView

Optimism (OP) price has traced a slump for the better part of the year, falling from a year-to-date high of $3.17 in February to $1.48, where it was trading at writing. Though the upcoming token unlock is expected to send OP spot prices lower, Optimism could see a boost early next month when the OP stack welcomes the Bedrock upgrade on June 6. The upgrade yang baru diumumkan is expected to lower transaction fees and improve compatibility with the Ethereum network.

Petani airdrop Sui akan menerima token minggu ini sebagai bagian dari rencana distribusi token

Optimism’s token unlock will be followed by a similar event on the Sui blockchain, albeit smaller, later this week. A volume of 61 million tokens will be added to the current circulating supply on June 3, increasing the supply volume by 13%. The network will also see regular unlocks until November when the circulating supply is projected to double. Sui’s event is part of the Community Access Program, with tokens being delivered to retail users, unlike Optimism’s upcoming event.

“Sui terasa sangat mirip dengan saat Aptos memiliki valuasi 11 digit, di mana saat ini ia memiliki sedikit hal untuk ditunjukkan dalam hal produk nyata, namun FDV tinggi terutama karena pasokan yang rendah, sehingga pembukaan ini tampak penting. Pada saat yang sama, kami juga melihat OP mengalami penjualan berat hari ini hanya 1 hari sebelum ia juga memiliki pembukaan besar, mengonfirmasi bahwa narasi jual-pembukaan sangat kuat saat ini,” trader pseudonim DeFiSquared menunjuk.

Sui, yang diciptakan oleh mantan karyawan Meta yang terlibat dalam proyek Novi yang kini sudah tidak ada, meluncurkan mainnet-nya awal bulan ini sambil melakukan penjualan token di Bybit, OKX, dan Kucoin. Keputusan untuk membatalkan airdrop pada April demi penjualan awal di bursa mendapat kritik keras. Pedagang telah bertaruh bahwa distribusi token terbaru akan memicu pergerakan harga di pasar. Data CoinMarketCap menunjukkan Optimism (OP) dan Sui (SUI) memimpin di antara yang paling banyak turun harian, masing-masing turun 7,85% dan 6,75% pada hari itu.

Grafik SUI/USD

The upcoming events on Optimism and Sui follow last week’s Avalanche token unlock, which resulted in 9.5 million AVAX tokens, representing 1.3% of the token supply, hitting the market.

To learn more about Sui, check out our Investing in Sui guide.

Harga AVAX tidak terpengaruh oleh pembukaan token senilai $130 juta pada 28 Mei

Avalanche tokenomics were expected to come under stress towards the end of last week, as millions of the blockchain’s native AVAX tokens are set to be unlocked this weekend. Token Unlocks data shows 9,541,800 AVAX, valued at about $136 million, were unlocked on Sunday. Overall, about 358.45 million AVAX, or slightly under half of the total supply, is locked – a $5.12 billion market cap, compared to $5.16 billion in market cap in circulation. The locked tokens will be released in phases, with the final tranche slated to be unlocked in Oktober 2030.

For context, on a linear basis, an excess of $1.43 million worth of AVAX tokens is unlocked on a daily basis. Ava Labs’ communications chief Patrick Sutton explained that the unlocked tokens were directed toward various stakeholders associated with Avalanche, including the Foundation, strategic partners, and the community. The team behind the project received an allocation of 4,500,000 AVAX (0.63%), while strategic partners were allocated 2,250,000 AVAX (0.31%), and the Foundation granted 1,666,800 AVAX (0.23%). The remaining 1,125,000 AVAX (0.16%) tokens were set aside for an airdrop.

Sutton added that the availability of the unlocked tokens does not mean immediate utilization, rather, it empowers the Foundation to exercise its discretion in determining the timing and manner in which these tokens will be put to use. Notably, there is a disparity in what Sutton says is the figure of remaining locked tokens – 96.06 million, approximately a quarter what Token Unlocks shows.

Grafik harga AVAX/USD YTD

AVAX tetap relatif tidak berubah setelah acara tersebut di tengah pasar yang kurang meyakinkan. CEO perusahaan infrastruktur token Hedgey Finance, Lindsey Winder, mencatat bahwa reaksi yang lemah kemungkinan karena pembukaan telah dipetakan sejak lama, dan pelaku canggih menyesuaikannya. Pasangan AVAX/USDT berada di sekitar $14.2 pada saat penulisan.

Untuk mempelajari lebih lanjut tentang Avalanche, lihat panduan Investing in Avalanche kami.