Euphoria to Exhaustion: Uptober’s Crash and What Lay Ahead

October began with great expectations but ended in absolute horror. Historically a bullish month, which has earned it the moniker ‘Uptober,’ has painted cryptocurrency charts red, leaving crypto market participants down and weak, with their wallets empty and spirits broken.

However, it didn’t start that way. The month actually delivered upon its promise of greens, with Bitcoin  (BTC -2.85%) price hitting a new all-time high (ATH) at about $126,000. This new peak was just about $2K above the previous $124,000 ATH that BTC made less than two months ago in mid-August.

Just after making that ATH in August, Bitcoin price dropped under $108K before the end of that month. Following a bout of volatility, the trillion-dollar digital asset ended September at around $110,000.

But the tide soon turned, and in the first six days of October, the BTC price jumped over 10.5% to a new peak.

These gains were short-lived, though, as in less than a week, the crypto market was hit by a massive wave of price drops, which caused the biggest liquidation in terms of USD value. The market was absolutely annihilated, and its effect can still be seen in weak prices.

As a result, Bitcoin has officially ended October red.

Up until now, Bitcoin only ever had two red Octobers, posting an average positive performance of 20.24%. Interestingly, the last two times Bitcoin price had negative returns in the month have been during the bear market, in 2014 (-12.94%) and 2018 (-3.83%), according to CoinGlass.

With a negative performance of 3.69%, the largest digital asset ended its six-time green streak, recording the third-largest losses.

But was October all bad? Well, the month saw several developments that should have been positive for the price, but when there are more sellers than buyers, no amount of good news can prevent the price from declining.

So, let’s check out all the key things that happened in the first month of the fourth quarter of 2025 and how that positions us for the future ahead.

October 2025 Crypto Crash: $19B Liquidations and Why It Happened

The biggest moment not just for October but possibly for the entire 2025 has been the massive liquidation event on October 10, wiping out more than $19 billion in crypto positions in a matter of 24 hours.

The event occurred just a few days after the Bitcoin price made an ATH.

On October 6th, BTC surged to $126,080, and the very next day price went back to about $120K. The next couple of days, volatility had the Bitcoin price oscillating between $120K and $124K.

Then, on October 10th, the price had spiked to just above $122,500 before it started selling off and then continued to do so for the next eight hours. Bitcoin price plunged below $105,000, representing a drawdown of over 14% from the ATH.

The downturn didn’t stop there, with the price remaining under pressure and repeatedly slipping beneath the $110K threshold.

But first, it rallied to almost $116,000 on October 14 before restarting its descent, falling as low as $103,700, a level the digital asset last traded in June. Since then, Bitcoin has been extremely volatile, going as high as $116,000 and as low as $106,000.

As a result of the price drop, more than $25 billion worth of open interest was wiped out from the Bitcoin market. At the beginning of October, the OI in the futures market was $89.38 billion and surged past $94 billion on October 7, only to fall under $70 billion on October 22nd and has been staying around this level.

What caused this crash was the renewed US-China trade tensions after US President Donald Trump threatened a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, along with tighter controls on critical software exports. Soon after, Trump said, “it will all be fine” and the US didn’t want to “hurt” China.

Since then, the dispute between China and the US has been “settled”. On October 30, Trump said the US and China have come to a trade deal.

Concerns about disruption in global supply chains and slowed technology growth also caused traditional markets to decline, but compared to crypto, the drawdown was extremely limited and short-lived.

SPX experienced a mere 2.7% drop on October 10, and then it was back to new highs.

In crypto, the trade tension triggered the sell-off, and overleveraging and market thinness amplified the losses. More than 1.6 million traders faced forced liquidations, losing millions of dollars during the event.

Deleveraging resulted in the futures open interest plummeting to $148 billion, down from $233.50 billion earlier in the month.

The crypto carnage resulted in heavy losses among alternative coins or altcoins, which are cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin. Compared to BTC, altcoins suffered a much severe drawdown. Many plunged 20% to 50% in minutes during the liquidity cascade.

The largest altcoin, Ethereum  (ETH -2.63%), which is the 2nd largest cryptocurrency, had its price fall to $3,436 before bouncing back above $4,250. ETH is currently trading at $3,700, down 25% from its $4,946 peak hit late in August.

Among leading altcoins, Solana (SOL -2.61%)  and Cardano (ADA -2.03%)  plummeted up to 30% while the likes of XRP (XRP -1.4%)  and other altcoins saw even sharper declines. HYPE (HYPE -5.18%)  and DOGE (DOGE -1.85%)  recorded big losses, more than 50% and 60%, respectively.

Among the top 100 crypto assets, ICP is down the most, 99.5% from its ATH. The likes of ALGO (ALGO -0.62%), DOT (DOT +0.73%), VET (VET -1.71%), ATOM (ATOM +4%), WLD (WLD -2.46%), PI (PI +4.63%), ETC (ETC -0.8%), and NEAR (NEAR -0.34%) are down more than 90%, while FLR (FLR +1.27%), TRUMP (TRUMP -5.19%), SHIB (SHIB -0.98%), ARB (ARB +0.91%), UNI (UNI -0.31%), AVAX (AVAX -0.42%), BCH (BCH -1.78%), POL (POL -0.02%), CRO (CRO -3.15%), APT (APT -2.64%), SEI (SEI -2.64%), ADA (ADA -2.03%), and JUP (JUP -2.99%) are down between 80% to 90%.

Even Zcash (ZEC), the privacy coin which has gone from $55 in late Sept. to $443 on Nov. 1st, is still 88% off its peak of $3,191 from nine years ago.

October 2025 Crypto Tailwinds: ETFs, Flows, and Policy Shifts

October was simply a massive disappointment that did not live up to its legacy at all.

What was expected to be a bullish month turned out to be a bearish one, marked by a sharp pullback and bleak sentiments. But that’s not to say that there was no positive news; in fact, several big announcements and developments were made in October.

Institutional Flows and the Rise of New Crypto ETFs

For starters, if we look at the institutional flow, the Bitcoin Spot ETF had a total net inflow of $3.42 billion last month, as per data from Farside. BlackRock’s IBIT continues to be the biggest beneficiary of this interest, capturing over $3.9 billion in inflows.

Of the 23 active days in last month, the Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded 13 days of net inflows and 10 days of net outflows. Inflows, however, were concentrated in early October, coinciding with Bitcoin’s ATH, and since October 10th, outflows have been dominating, which has now been weighing on price.

Institutional involvement has been the key driver of Bitcoin price this cycle, and ongoing selling is flashing a caution sign.

A flurry of new crypto spot ETFs also joined Bitcoin and Ethereum last month, despite the US government shutdown due to a budget dispute between the Republicans and Democrats in Congress, which has now extended into the second month.

The shutdown slowed many regulatory processes, but crypto still got several new Spot ETFs. This was made possible by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving new listing standards before the shutdown.

Among the new ETFs, the most prominent one was the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL), which, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Balchunas, had the best ETF launch of this year in any asset class. BSOL recorded $56 million in day-one trading volume.

Grayscale also launched the Solana Spot ETF (GSOL), converting its Solana Trust into a fully tradable ETF, including staking. GSOL has achieved roughly $100 million in net assets. In comparison, BSOL has acquired more than $400 million in net assets so far and over $197 million in cumulative net inflows.

Spot Litecoin and Hedera ETFs by Canary Capital also made their debut, but unlike BSOL, demand for them was rather muted.

“Based on solid flows to existing leveraged ETFs, we expect SOL ETFs to attract the strongest demand, while more obscure altcoins are expected to face limited interest.”

– K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde

Still, the fact that ETF wrappers mean a low-cost and easy way for investors to get exposure to these altcoins in the form of shares bought through any brokerage can ultimately broaden market participation and enhance liquidity over time.

Monetary Policy Shifts and Global Regulatory Developments

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% to 3.75% and 4.0%, which makes risky assets like crypto and stocks attractive. With the latest cut, the central bank has brought down the rates to their lowest level since 2022, when the Fed was increasing rates as inflation jumped.

The rates have been cut by a quarter of a percentage point to temper the weakening in the job market. But the expected cut came with a caution that a December cut is not a foregone conclusion. “Far from it,” Powell told reporters.

According to crypto data provider Santiment:

“Lower interest rates usually make riskier investments like Bitcoin more attractive because borrowing is cheaper and there’s more money flowing through the system. But when Powell suggests the Fed might slow down rate cuts, it cools that excitement.”

While tempering market’s expectations for more cuts ahead, Powell noted “strongly differing views” among Fed governors about the path forward, with “a growing chorus now … feeling like maybe this is where we should at least wait a cycle” before cutting rates again.

The central bank’s policy statement also referenced the lack of official data due to the government shutdown, and that, as a result, policymakers are going to be more cautious, Powell noted. The shutdown means the government won’t be able to carry out surveys and create reports that are important to the Fed’s policy decisions.

The Fed would be resuming the rate cuts at some point, though, with the focus on getting to “the end of this cycle with the labor market in a good place and with inflation on its way to 2% or at 2%,” he added.

The current policy rate, Powell said, is putting some downward pressure on inflation. And while it may rise temporarily in the coming months due to tariffs, it will then fall. “I think it would not be appropriate to just ignore or assume away the inflation issue; at the same time, I think the risk of higher, more persistent inflation has declined significantly since April,” said Powell.

The central bank would also be restarting its limited purchases of Treasury securities. This move comes after money markets showed signs of liquidity getting scarce. Ending the balance sheet decline will keep the Fed’s holdings steady but will reinvest the proceeds of maturing mortgage-backed securities into Treasury bills.

Amidst this, Europe moved into the next phase of its digital euro project. This phase will ensure technical readiness for first issuance, with a pilot exercise expected to start in 2027, provided legislation is in place next year.

“The euro, our shared money, is a trusted sign of European unity,” said ECB President Christine Lagarde. “We are working to make its most tangible form – euro cash – fit for the future, redesigning and modernising our banknotes and preparing for the issuance of digital cash.”

Wall Street Continues to Deepen Its Crypto Footprint

Wall Street’s embrace of digital assets continued at a fast pace in October.

For starters, S&P Global, the company behind the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, launched a new index called the “S&P Digital Markets 50,” which combines 15 major cryptos and 35 related stocks to provide investors with diversified access to digital asset markets.

For this, S&P partnered with Dinari, a US-based tokenization firm that provides on-chain access to public securities. The platform will create a token version of the hybrid benchmark on its dShares platform, enabling global investors to get exposure to it directly via blockchain.

“For the first time, investors can access both U.S. equities and digital assets in a single, transparent product.”

– Anna Wroblewska, Chief Business Officer at Dinari

October also saw the longtime Bitcoin critic Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s CEO, publicly acknowledge that cryptocurrencies and stablecoins are “real”. This change of sentiment comes as the bank announced plans to allow its clients to use crypto as collateral by the year-end.

At the Mega Investment Summit, Dimon noted that the bank is already operating a deposit coin and using smart contracts to improve efficiency. It recently launched a pilot for its Deposit Token, which is an interest-bearing token fully backed by bank liabilities.

Western Union has also announced plans to launch a dollar-backed stablecoin on Solana.

The global financial services company’s US Dollar Payment Token (USDPT) will be launched in the first half of next year and accessible through partner exchanges. Using this asset, its customers will be able to send value around the world without being exposed to banking bottlenecks and local currency swings while enjoying lower fees and faster settlement.

This shows the intensifying competition in the stablecoin market. PayPal (PYPL -3.29%) has already introduced PYUSD, which accidentally minted $300 trillion worth of tokens. All of the tokens were burned.

Visa (V +0.18%), meanwhile, added support for four stablecoins, which can be converted to more than 25 traditional fiat currencies. The payments giant also revealed that it has facilitated over $140 billion in crypto and stablecoin flows in the last five years, and its quarterly stablecoin-linked spend has quadrupled compared to a year ago.

Meanwhile, Citi has partnered with Coinbase (COIN -3.33%) to enhance digital asset payment capabilities for institutional clients. To expand its crypto services, the bank will be launching custody solutions next year.

“The financial landscape is changing fast, and we’re thrilled to join Coinbase to explore new and innovative payment options for our global clients,” said Debopama Sen, the head of payments and services at Citi. “With more than 300 payment clearing networks across 94 markets globally, we see collaborating with Coinbase as a natural extension of our ‘network of networks’ approach, further supporting our clients to make payments as if there were no borders.”

Crypto-native Growth and Strategic Expansion

At the end of October, Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in the US, topped market expectations by reporting a 26% QoQ increase in revenue to $1.9 billion for Q3 of 2025.

In the three months ended Sept. 30, Coinbase posted earnings per share of $1.50, which points to $433 million in net income. The net income dropped sequentially from $1.4 billion due to mark-to-market adjustments in the value of the exchange’s stake in stablecoin issuer Circle and crypto portfolio.

During this period, the platform earned $1 billion in transaction fees, which was up 37% QoQ. Working on diversifying its business, Coinbase reported $185 million in blockchain rewards and $355 million in stablecoin revenue.

Meanwhile, its Bitcoin holdings increased by $299 million in Q3 through weekly purchases, with the fair value of digital assets held for investment purposes being $2.6 billion, as of Sept. 30.

Last month, Coinbase also acquired the blockchain-investing platform Echo in a $375 million cash-and-stock deal, marking its eighth deal of the year. With this acquisition, the exchange aims to expand its platform into token sales and early-stage blockchain capital formation.

“We want to create more accessible, efficient, and transparent capital markets.”

– Coinbase

A week before Coinbase’s latest round of acquisitions, rival crypto exchange Kraken also announced a $100 million deal for futures trading platform Small Exchange, as part of its plan to launch a fully US-based derivatives suite.

For 3Q25, Kraken reported revenue of $648 million, increasing 50% QoQ and adjusted EBITDA of $178.6 million, surging 124% QoQ. Total transaction volume on Kraken jumped to $561.9 billion, and assets grew to $59.3 billion. The exchange reported 5.2 million funded accounts as of quarter end.

Bitcoin Outlook for November 2025: Key Levels, Liquidity, and Risks

After the horrible price action of October, we are now entering November with exhausted momentum and weakened sentiments. While November has boasted the highest historical average at 42.32%, making it Bitcoin’s strongest month, though the median is just 8.81%,  there is simply no knowing how it will turn out now.

Per the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which shows a reading of 33 on a scale of 1 to 100, with 1 showing extreme fear and 100 extreme green, there is currently fear in the market. The sentiments have completely shifted from ‘greed’ last month, when the Index had a reading of 74.

As of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $108,000, up 14.5% year-to-date and 57.3% in the past year, while being down 15% from its ATH. This has turned the asset’s November performance negative at 2.24% and Q4 returns are also negative at 5.85%.

Bitcoin is showing no strength right now and continues to range. According to crypto data provider Glassnode, the “struggle below key cost-basis levels reflects fading demand and continued long-term holder distribution.”

It is around $113K where the cost basis of short-term holders lies and presents a “critical battleground between bull and bear momentum.” If Bitcoin price is unable to reclaim this level, the market can see a deeper retracement toward $88K, which is the Active Investors’ Realized Price.

While short-term holders are exiting their positions at a loss, long-term holders continue to be net distributors, which ,per Glassnode, is “signaling waning conviction and ongoing supply absorption.”

Meanwhile, the total cryptocurrency market cap is currently sitting just under $3.7 trillion, down from the $4.4 trillion peak on October 7. Total stablecoin market cap has surpassed $307 billion, adding about $10 billion in October and $100 billion this year, as per DeFi Llama.

While Bitcoin and the broader crypto market continue to struggle, the stock market has been enjoying a massive uptrend.

Ever since dropping to 4,835 in April, the S&P 500 has been constantly making new highs. SPX rose about 2.4% in October, marking a sixth straight monthly gain, to a new peak of 6,920.34. Currently, it is at 6,840.20, up 16.30% YTD and 19.40% in the past year.

Gold has also been enjoying massive gains. The bullion price surged as high as $4,375 per ounce on October 21st, representing a 173% upside in three years. However, since then, the precious metal has given up some of its gains and is now trading at $4,000 per ounce. With that, gold has attained a market capitalization of $27.9 trillion, making it the world’s largest asset.

In 2nd place sits chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA -2.19%), which has finally hit a $5 trillion market cap, followed by Apple (AAPL -0.22%), Microsoft (MSFT -1.19%), and Alphabet (GOOG -1.75%).

With a market cap of $2.7 trillion, Silver has secured 6th place among all assets, including public companies, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, and ETFs. As a result of the price decline, Bitcoin now ranks 8th, with a market cap of $2.14 trillion. Ethereum, meanwhile, sits at 31st place with a $447.75 billion market capitalization.

Overall, October was a massive disappointment. What began with euphoria and record highs ended in forced liquidations and shaken confidence. While Bitcoin is struggling, altcoins are simply showing no signs of life or bid. But while the market is not looking good, the heavy sell-off of October has knocked out weak hands, reset risk appetite, and that may offer a chance at recovery.

It’s possible that the market may finally see a rotation from gold to digital gold. Also, the broad crypto industry may benefit from the deepening institutional participation and many other positive developments that have taken place last month.

With that, November stands at a crossroads. History says it’s Bitcoin’s strongest month, but liquidity is thin and sentiment is fragile. So, there’s no knowing what’s ahead, all that one can do in the current uncertain times is hope for the best and prepare for the worst!

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