Neden Gümüş Akıllıca Bir Yatırım: 5 Temel Neden

Gümüş Bir Dönüm Noktasında: Talebin Neden Artıyor

Precious metals have been the refuge to which capital flocks in troubled times since the dawn of civilization. In large part, this is because they represent a form of wealth that is independent from the monetary or financial system.

And for sure, Gold has clearly played this role in the past few years since the explosion of international tensions following the start of the war in Ukraine.

ABD ile tarifeler ve uluslararası ticaretin yavaşlaması da katkıda bulundu.

The cheaper relative of gold, silver, is also outperforming, reaching in nominal terms (not inflation-adjusted) its all-time highs from the 1980s.

As a result, gold and silver have surged since 2022, with one of the fastest multi-year advances of the modern era.

Kaynak: GoldPrice

However, concerns about inflation, geopolitics, and monetary disorder are only part of the story about investing in silver.

Supply constraints, industrial demand, relation to gold prices, and accessibility all play a role as well.

So while not as talked about or valuable as gold, silver might have as much or maybe even more upside potential than the yellow metal.

Gümüşe Yatırım Yapmak İçin 5 Neden

1. Değer Saklama & Enflasyon Koruması

For most of human history, silver has been considered a “monetary metal”, due to its rarity and high value, and has been more often used for coinage than gold. Like the yellow metal, silver especially holds well its value when currencies are being devaluated, resulting in high inflation periods.

So, like gold and bitcoin, silver cannot just be “printed” into existence, making it a hard asset investors can trust a lot more to hold its value.

In that context, silver prices should not just be compared to previous historical nominal price spikes, or even adjusted for these previous highs for inflation.

Instead, it should be compared to the money supply, the amount of fiat currency present in the system. And whether we look at the money supply data called M1 (yaklaşık olarak nakit arzı) or M2 (cash + highly liquid assets), both show that since 2020, the money supply growth has been a major trigger for the current bull market in precious metals.

Kaynak: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

Some of the newly printed money also finds its way into the stock market, especially the most popular segments of it, like the tech sector and popular stocks like Tesla (TSLA ) or Nvidia (NVDA ). The high prices of other asset classes, like real estate, reflect partially the past years’ money printing as well.

Another confirmation of excessive money supply is persistent inflation, despite moderate economic growth.

Kaynak: US Inflation Calculator

As the money invested in cash, stocks, bonds, and real estate might rotate partially to precious metals, both gold and silver prices can benefit.

2. Endüstriyel Talep (Elektronik, Güneş, Tıp)

If historically the main uses of silver were jewelry and currency, this is no longer true in the modern era.

Silver has, of all elements in the periodic table, the highest thermal and electrical conductivity. This makes it very useful, and sometimes absolutely required, for electrical and electronic applications.

Yeşil Enerji

Today, the major driver for the growth in silver demand for industrial uses is the production of photovoltaic panels.

While alternatives like copper exist, they are less efficient and will only be deployed if silver becomes too expensive.

Gümüş tozu bir macun haline getirilir ve ardından bir silikon wafer üzerine yüklenir.

Işık silikon üzerine çarptığında, elektronlar serbest kalır ve gümüş – dünyanın en iyi iletkeni – elektriği taşır.

Another growing electrical application is EV batteries, where silver is very useful, but also represents just a fraction of the total cost, making its substitution unlikely, even at very high prices per ounce of silver.

Batarya elektrikli araçlar, her bir araç başına yaklaşık 25-50 gram gümüş kullanır.

Elektrik & Elektronik

Silver is also used in fuel car components (airbag deployment systems, automatic braking, infrared radars, LIDAR, etc.), for corrosion-proof soldering, and is found in countless electrical systems as well (switches, transformers, relays, capacitors, etc.).

Kaynak: Visual Capitalist

Tıbbi

Lastly, another application of silver stems from its disinfectant properties, as silver ions can kill bacteria, viruses, and other microbes.

So it is used in wound dressings, coatings, and medical devices to keep wounds clean and avoid the formation of deadly biofilms in hospitals.

3. Arz Kısıtlamaları

Because of its dual use as both a monetary and industrial metal, the supply of silver is radically different from the supply of gold.

Most of the gold that has been mined over history is still around in the form of gold bars, coins, jewelry, and other artifacts.

In contrast, most of the silver ever produced is now lost, consumed by industrial processes, and very rarely recycled.

As the industrial demand from the trend of electrification is not going away any time soon, it makes silver potentially an even harder asset than gold, with a built-in consumption of the available resource over time. In that context, even Bitcoin, with its immutable fixed supply once all Bitcoins are mined, might not compare favorably.

An additional short-term limit on silver supply is that silver is often produced as a by-product of mining for gold, copper, zinc, lead, or other metals. So, the silver supply cannot easily respond quickly to price changes.

If industrial or monetary demand surges while mines’ output is capped, shortages can push prices higher.

Some analysts argue we are heading toward a structural supply deficit due to rising green-energy demand, making the supply deficit that started in 2023 permanent.

Kaynak: Mining.com

Global silver inventories are certainly depleting, with almost 400 million ounces going missing since 2021, leaving inventories below the 1,200 million ounce mark.

Kaynak: Sprott

(Gümüş tarihi, arz kaynakları ve gümüşe nasıl yatırım yapılacağı hakkında daha fazla bilgiye rehberimizde okuyabilirsiniz “Gümüşe Yatırım: Talep, Açıklar ve Risklere Derinlemesine Dalış”)

4. Altına Karşı Göreceli Değer

For a long time, silver’s value was somewhat comparable to that of gold, with the gold-to-silver price ratio (how many ounces of silver equal one ounce of gold) averaging around 15–20.

This ratio varied depending on the region of the world and the respective abundance of each ore in that area.

Since the end of the direct monetary role of gold and silver in the global monetary system, the silver-to-gold ratio has fluctuated, with silver becoming less precious than gold over time.

Kaynak: Aberdeen Investments

In large part, this was due to central banks still holding strong gold reserves (only a partial demonetization) but holding no silver reserves (total demonetization).

Today, this trend seems to be reverting, with, for example, Rusya Merkez Bankası 2024’ten bu yana gümüş envanteri biriktirmeye yeniden başladı.

Suudi Arabistan da, Merkez Bankasının iShares Silver Trust (SLV ) (fiziksel gümüş tutan) ve Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL ) (gümüş madenciliği yapan şirketlere odaklanan) satın almasıyla gümüşe yatırım yapmaya başladı, through its Central Bank purchasing iShares Silver Trust (SLV ), which holds physical silver, and Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL ), focusing on companies that mine silver.

China might also be stockpiling silver, for example, by madencilerden doğrudan işlenmemiş gümüş alarak gümüş stoklayabilir, ancak altın birikimi konusundaki uzun süredir şüphe duyulan politikasına gelince, Çin diğer ülkelere göre daha gizli davranıyor.

5. Erişilebilirlik & Kaldıraç

Often dubbed the “gold of the poor”, silver has been seen all over history as a precious metal more accessible to buy for the lower and middle classes, to whom gold might be too pricey.

Altın hanımefendi içindir; gümüş hizmetçi içindir–

Bakır ise ustasının kurnazlığına!

Rudyard Kipling

So while many people might struggle to buy even 1/10^th of an ounce of gold, a dozen silver coins is more accessible.

Historically, periods of monetary disorder also saw silver more used as an alternative currency for barter, with gold becoming too precious to fulfill this role.

Silver is also inherently a more volatile market, due to its smaller size. So any large capital influx in the sector creates stronger price fluctuations than in the gold market.

This volatility and “built-in” leverage can make silver more attractive to speculators, potentially leading to higher potential returns during bull runs in precious metals. But investors should be aware that this also means bigger losses during bear markets.

Gümüşe Nasıl Yatırım Yapılır?

Investors can gain exposure to silver through three primary methods. Each option has unique advantages and drawbacks, as shown in the table below.

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Gümüş Külçe

The purchase of silver bullion, or actual silver bars and coins, is relatively easy, and there are a number of trusted outlets from which you can purchase. Investment-grade bullion typically refers to silver that’s 99.9% pure.

Collectibles and rare coins typically command a higher premium than “commoditized” forms of silver bullion, such as the Viyana Filarmoni, the American Silver Eagle, or the Canadian Maple Leaf.

Kaynak: Bullion Vault

We recommend these companies for bullion purchases:

1. Bitpanda(USA Prohibited)
2. Gold Broker
3. Bullion Vault

Gümüş ETC’leri

Some exchange-traded commodities (ETCs) are gümüş metaline yatırım yapmak ve gümüş fiyatını izlemek için oluşturulmuş finansal araçlardır, without having to bother with direct custody and storage of the metal, in exchange for a low fee.

Among the largest ones are:

• iShares Silver Trust (SLV )(total Expense Ratio of 0.50%).
• iShares Physical Silver ETC(SSLN), for European investors (total Expense Ratio of 0.20%).
• abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF  (total Expense Ratio of 0.30%)

Gümüş Madencileri

Investors can buy individual mining stocks, but must understand that the smaller the mine is, or a mine not yet in production, the riskier it is.

Daha büyük gümüş şirketleri, especially with a diversified asset base across many countries, might be safer. For example, dünyanın ikinci büyük gümüş madencisini, Pan American Silver (PAAS ) şirket odaklı serimizde ele aldık.

Birçok gümüş madencisini bir arada tutan ETF’ler portföy çeşitlendirmek için iyi bir yol olabilir, örneğin:

• Global X Silver Miners (SIL )
• Amplify Junior Silver Miners 
• iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners 

Royalty şirketleri Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM ) ve Franco Nevada (FNV ) çoğunlukla altın royalty’leriyle ilgilenir, ancak genellikle gümüş royalty’lerinden de bazı gelirleri vardır.

Özellikle gümüşe odaklanan royalty şirketleri Silver Crown Royalties (SLCRF), tüm varlıkları Amerika kıtasında (çoğunlukla Güney Amerika) bulunan mülklerden royalty akışı alır, ya da Vizsla Royalties (VROYF), ana royalty akışı Meksika’dan gelmektedir.