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Pan American Silver (PAAS): Düşük Maliyetli Onslar, Küresel Gümüş Yükselişi

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2025’te Gümüş Bir Dönüm Noktasında

Precious metals, especially gold, have historically held a special place in the monetary system, as the foundation of “softer” forms of money like non-precious metal coins, paper bills, and digital ledgers.

Bu rol, 1971’de dolar dönüştürülebilirliğinin sona ermesi ve Bitcoin gibi güvenilir alternatiflerin ortaya çıkmasıyla zayıfladı.

Bununla birlikte, Ukrayna savaşının başlamasının ardından uluslararası gerilimlerin patlaması ve artan ABD borçları nedeniyle altın, son birkaç yılda neredeyse tüm diğer yatırımları geride bırakarak üstün performans göstermeye devam etti.

Kaynak: GoldPrice

Altının “sert para” olarak bir eşlikçisi her zaman gümüş olmuştur; gri metal zaman içinde para basımında da eşit şekilde kullanılmıştır.

Bununla birlikte, enflasyon, jeopolitik ve para düzeni konusundaki endişeler, gümüşle ilgili hikayenin sadece bir kısmını oluşturur.

Tarihsel olarak çoğunlukla takı ve madeni para yapımında kullanılan metal, bugün özellikle elektronik sektöründe kritik bir endüstriyel metal ve yeşil enerji devriminin temel taşıdır; güneş paneli üretimi artık gümüş talebinin başlıca itici gücüdür.

Hikâyenin bir diğer yönü, yeni gümüş üretiminin madencilikten talebi karşılamakta zorlanması ve zamanla stokların tükenmesidir.

Son olarak, küresel para sisteminde altın ve gümüşün doğrudan para rolünün sona ermesinden beri, gümüş‑altın oranı dalgalanmıştır; gümüş zaman içinde altından daha az değerli hale gelmiştir. Gümüş tekrar yatırım amaçlı kullanılmaya başlanırsa bu durum değişebilir.

Altın kadar geniş tartışılmasa ve değerli olmasa da, gümüş sarı metal kadar, hatta daha fazla yükseliş potansiyeline sahip olabilir.

Değerli Metallerin Ötesinde Gümüş Talebi

While a surge in demand for investment purposes is likely the cause of silver prices rising in 2025, it is also increasingly a crucial metal for industrial purposes as the world electrifies.

Gümüş, termal ve elektriksel iletkenlik açısından tüm kimyasal elementler arasında en iyisi olduğundan, güneş panelleri, bataryalar, invertörler ve sigortalar ile röleler gibi diğer elektrikli cihazlar için hayati bir malzemedir.

Elektronik, korozyona dayanıklı lehimleme, tıbbi bandajlar ve dezenfektanlar talebin geri kalanını oluşturur.

Dolayısıyla, gümüşün yeniden para birimi haline gelmemesi durumunda bile, bu metalin yatırım gerekçesi, elektrifikasyon ve dijitalleşmeden kaynaklanan artan talep üzerinden tek başına oluşturulabilir; üretim ise durgun kalmakta ve talebi karşılamaktan zaten eksik kalmaktadır.

Kaynak: Mining.com

Gümüş Madencilerine Nasıl Yatırım Yapılır (Riskler ve Potansiyel)

Investors interested in betting on silver can look at silver mining companies. As silver miners make most of their money from the differential between production costs and spot price, sufficiently rising silver prices can double, triple, or more their operating margins.

Sonuç olarak, gümüş madencileri iş modelinde “yerleşik kaldıraç” barındırır; bu, artan volatiliteden hem daha fazla risk hem de fırsat yaratır ve geleneksel kaldıraçlı bahislerde görülen nakit rezervleri ve teminat çağrıları gibi unsurlara ihtiyaç duymaz.

Gümüş yatakları Dünya’da eşit dağılmamıştır; en büyük cevher kaynağı Latin Amerika’da, özellikle Meksika, Peru ve Şili’de bulunur. Üretim ayrıca Çin, Rusya, Orta Asya, Avustralya ve ABD’de de güçlüdür.

En çok üreten ülkelerden bazıları daha yoğun yataklara sahiptir; özellikle Meksika’da birkaç mega-cevher yatağı bulunmakta ve dünyadaki en büyük 20 gümüş madeninin 10’u burada yer almaktadır.

Bu durum, yatırımcılar için gümüş madencilerine yatırım yapmayı zorlaştırabilir; tek bir ülke ya da madende aşırı yoğunlaşma felaketle sonuçlanabilir; bu, First Quantum Minerals’ın ana bakır madeninin 2023’te Panama hükümeti tarafından kapatılması ve hisse fiyatının ani düşüşüyle gösterilmiştir.

Jeolojik bir sorun ya da maden çökmesi durumunda da benzer bir felaket yaşanabilir; bu, politik risklerden bağımsızdır.

Bu nedenle, madencilik sektörüne maruz kalmanın en iyi stratejileri, riski birçok farklı hisse arasında yaymak ya da madencilikle ilgili ETF’leri kullanmaktır.

(Bu stratejiler hakkında daha fazla bilgiye raporumuzda okuyabilirsiniz “Investing In Silver: Diving Deeper into Demand, Deficits, and Risks”.)

Başka bir seçenek, onlarca hatta daha fazla madeni olan büyük madencilik şirketlerine yatırım yapmaktır; böylece tek bir ülke şirketin genel işinin büyük bir kısmını oluşturmaz. Ayrıca, dünyanın jeopolitik bloklara yeniden şekillendiği bir ortamda, yalnızca Batı dostu ülkelere maruz kalmak idealdir.

Gümüş lehine bir dönüşten en çok fayda sağlayacak şirket, aynı zamanda hissedarlarına risk çeşitlendirmesi sunacak: Pan American Silver Corp.

(PAAS )

Pan American Silver (PAAS): Ayak İzi ve 2024 Üretimi

Pan American Silver is one of the world’s largest silver miners, with some activity in gold mining as well, either from smaller gold mines or as a byproduct of silver mining (both metals are often intermingled in the Earth’s crust ores.

The company’s mines are all located in the Americas, with the majority of production coming from South America.

Not one country dominates the company’s mining activities, with the largest one (Chile) accounting for only a quarter of revenues, followed by Peru and Brazil, with Mexico accounting for only 13% of revenues.

The company produced 21.1 million ounces of silver and 892,000 ounces of gold in 2024.

The company’s mineral reserves include 452 million ounces of silver and 6.3 million ounces of gold, or, at the current production rate, at least 21 years of silver reserves and 7 years of gold.

PAAS Varlıkları: Aktif, Boşta ve Opsiyonellik

Aktif Gümüş Madenleri

Overall, the silver segment of Pan American Silver had an AISC of $18.98 /  ounce in 2024, a number that should decrease after MAG’s acquisition (see below).

  • La Colorada, in Mexico, the company’s largest silver mine, with 90.7 million ounces in reserve, of which 52.7 million ounces were discovered recently.
  • La Colorada Skarn, an adjacent deposit that could contain as much as ~265.4 Mt of mineralized material (not silver metal), and a PEA that outlines ~17.2 Moz of silver per year over the first decade at ~50,000 tpd, with a 17-year mine life.
  • Huaron, in Peru, with 40.7 million ounces in reserves.
  • Cerro Moro in Argentina & San Vicente in Bolivia with combined reserves of 16.4 million ounces.

Boşta Projeler: Escobal (Guatemala) ve Navidad (Arjantin)

  • Escobal, described by the company as “One of the world’s best silver mines“, with 264 million ounces in reserve and a very low AISC ($8-$9 / ounce), but which stopped producing in 2016 due to suspension by the Guatemalan government over the rights of the local ethnic minority.
  • Navidad,  in Chubut, Argentina, is one of the world’s largest undeveloped primary silver deposits, with up to 632 million ounces of silver.
    • The Province of Chubut passed a law in 2003 (“Law 5001”) that prohibits open-pit mining and the use of cyanide in mineral processing in the entire province, effectively preventing the development of Navidad. To date, this law remains in place.

Overall, investors should count only the existing mines, and value the stopped mines like Navidad and Escobal with a very steep discount, counting on these mines to be restarted only in conditions where silver prices and supply deficit are so high that local governments are more likely to revise their position and look to profit from a restart.

They do, however, represent a valuable optionality on the upside, especially Escobal, as this is a fully developed mine still kept in care and maintenance, which could be restarted very quickly if legally possible (Navidad would take a lot longer to develop).

Altın Madenleri

While not central to the company, gold production happens in many of its silver mines, as the extraction of silver from the ore also yields some gold as well.

Yine de birkaç altın madeni de bulunmaktadır:

  • Jacobina, in Brazil, with 3.1 million ounces of gold in reserve and 196,700 ounces produced in 2024, or 16 years of reserve life at current production levels.
  • Shahuindo, in Peru, with 977,000 ounces of gold in reserve. Pan American Silver considers that exploration potential exists to increase the mine life, beyond the mere 7 years left at the current production rate. The very low AISC ($1,371 / ounce) makes keeping the mine running through more exploration interesting.
  • Timmins, in Ontario, Canada, with 846,000 ounces in reserves, but with a high AISC ($2,023).
  • El Peñon, in Chile, with 626,000 ounces of gold in reserve and has historically produced 3.9 million ounces of silver as well.
  • Minera Florida in Chile & Dolores in Mexico, with a combined reserve of 289,300 ounces of gold.

Gelişim, Royalti ve Yatırımlar

Besides its main active mines, Pan American Silver also has a few royalty payments from other mines, meaning it gets a part of future production, generally in exchange for providing capital in the past for developing these mines.

It also has ownership in a few other projects:

  • A 65% interest in Radius Gold’s high-grade Amalia Project located in the State of Chihuahua, Mexico. Pan American Silver may earn an additional 10% by advancing the project to pre-feasibility.
  • A 6% undiluted interest in New Pacific Metals Corp.(NEWP ), providing it with exposure to the Silver Sand property, located in the Potosi department of Bolivia.
  • La Bolsa (Sonora, Mexico) and Pico Machay (Huancavelica, Peru) at an advanced stage of development, for now held on “care and maintenance” (mining industry term for a mine that could be reactivated, but is for now inactive).

MAG Anlaşması ve Juanicipio: Düşük Maliyetli Onslar Eklendi

Recently, Pan American Silver has jumped in the ranking of global silver miners, with the acquisition of Mag Silver for $2.1B. The deal involving shares and cash resulted in an ownership in Pan American of approximately 86% for previous Pan American shareholders and 14% for MAG shareholders.

The center of this deal is the Juanicipio mine in Mexico, owned at 44% by MAG, and 56% by the other large silver miner, Mexican Fresnillo (FNLPF).

The mine is one of the largest ever discovered silver deposits, with the world’s highest silver production for a primary silver mine (to distinguish from large silver production from copper mega-mines, for example).

This scale makes the mine remarkably cheap to operate. Its AISC (All-In Sustainable Cost), a measure of “real” costs of mining including capex costs, is among the lowest quartile of all silver mines in the world.

This reduces Pan American Silver’s overall AISC from the relatively high $17.25 / ounce of silver to $14.03 / ounce (silver has been trading >$40/ounce in Eylül 2025).

By adding 6.6 to 7.3 million ounces of silver production for 2025, the acquisition of MAG is firmly putting Pan American Silver in the #2 spot of global silver miners, and the #1 when it comes to internationally diversified silver miners.

Nakit Akışı ve Sermaye Tahsisi 2010’dan Bu Yana

The recent MAG acquisition has placed Pan American Silver in a category of its own when it comes to annual free cash flow, ahead of all other silver miners, except for Fresnillo. Combined with rising silver prices, it gives the company a radically different financial profile when compared to 2018

As mining is a very capital-intensive business, proper capital allocation is vital for the long-term profits of shareholders, something that can only be evaluated over time.

This must include adequately timed investment decisions in launching new mines, mine extensions, and acquisitions. But also not consuming all the company’s money on growth at all costs, a common issue in the mining industry, as incentive of management is often growth over shareholder returns.

Since 2010, the company has dedicated 32% of its capital allocation to dividends, 7% to share buybacks ($1.1B returned to shareholders), and 47% to growth, illustrating its commitment to long-term value creation.

PAAS Alınması Gereken Bir Hisse mi? Portföyde Nerede Yer Alır

Investors interested in getting exposure to silver and precious metals in general likely do so for one of two reasons:

  1. Portfolio diversification, looking to reduce risks from inflation
    • Interestingly, Morgan Stanley’s CIO started in Eylül 2025 to promote a 60/20/20 portfolio (60% allocation to equities,  20% to bonds, 20% to gold), replacing half of the traditional bond allocation with gold, marking a drastic departure of decades where gold was considered a “barbarous relic”, according to John Maynard Keynes (the progenitor of modern macroeconomics coining the expression.
    • Potentially, a 60/20/15/5, with the gold allocation split between 15% gold and 5% silver, counting on silver likely having higher volatility and upside potential, could make sense as well.
  2. A calculated bet on monetary devaluation or remonetization of gold & silver, in the context of a decline in dollar usage for international trade, the re-emergence of China as a Great Power, and increasing geopolitical tensions.

In both cases, a company like Pan American Silver is the closest to a diversified silver portfolio a single stock can provide, thanks to the combination of its massive scale (unmatched except by one company) and its extensive geographical diversification (above Fresnillo’s focus on Mexico alone).

In the case of concerns about the international and monetary order breaking down, direct exposure to the physical metal, either through miners like Pan American Silver (ownership of reserves and future production), or direct ownership, makes more sense than through more risky derivatives like futures and options.

Silver is certainly still today considered an unconventional investment, compared to stocks, bonds, or even gold & Bitcoin.

But as silver demand from electrification explodes and inflation stays a concern, a turn towards more cautious portfolio, like the 60/20/20 now advocated by Morgan Stanley, might be a new durable trend in the investment community, and would greatly benefit the very small silver spot market (only $87B of market size in 2024) and silver miners like Pan American Silver Corp (all top silver miners’ market capitalization combined was worth $185B in Eylül 2025).

En Son Pan American Silver (PAAS) Hisse Senedi Haberleri ve Gelişmeler

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Jonathan eski bir biyokimya araştırmacısıdır ve genetik analiz ve klinik çalışmalar üzerinde çalışmıştır. Şimdi bir hisse analisti ve finans yazarıdır ve yayınında 'The Eurasian Century' da inovasyon, piyasa döngüleri ve jeopolitika üzerine odaklanmaktadır.