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The 90-Day Bet for $1 Million Bitcoin (BTC)




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Venture capitalist Balaji Srinivasan is betting on Bitcoin to hit $1 million before the second quarter of 2023 is over, propelled by hyperinflation in the US.

Srinivasan is a tech founder, angel investor, and a Wall Street Journal bestselling author. He formerly served as the CTO of the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the US, Coinbase, and was a general partner at venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z).

According to him, Bitcoin is “a hedge against hyperinflation, monetary debasement, bank freezes, and wealth seizure.” And with hyperinflation happening now, he is expecting the price of bitcoin to hit $1 million within 90 days. In other words, he is advising people to buy BTC.

At the time of writing, BTC/USD has been trading at $28,000, up more than 70% YTD and 85% since late November but still down about 59% from its all-time high of $69,000 hit in November 2021.

Srinivasan believes the global economy is on the brink of rapid transformation, a phenomenon he calls “hyperbitcoinization.” And he anticipates that the US dollar will reach a state of rapid hyperinflation, resulting in the global economy switching to Bitcoin as a digital equivalent of gold.

Bitcoin is a digital currency created in 2009 by an unknown person or group using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto as a response to the 2008 financial crisis, which saw the collapse of several large banks and financial institutions collapse, leading to a global economic downturn.

Hyperbitcoinization May Come at you Fast

The crypto king was designed to be a decentralized, peer-to-peer system for conducting transactions without the need for intermediaries like banks or other financial institutions. It is based on a technology called blockchain, a public ledger of all Bitcoin transactions maintained by a network of users rather than a central authority.

One of the key features of Bitcoin is its limited supply, as there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins, making it a deflationary currency. This is in contrast to traditional currencies like the US dollar, which can be printed in unlimited quantities, leading to inflation.

The creation of Bitcoin was also motivated by concerns about government control over the financial system. After all, Bitcoin allows users to conduct transactions anonymously without government oversight, making it popular among people who value privacy and financial autonomy.

Bitcoin Price During Covid vs Now

Over this past decade, Bitcoin has gained massive recognition and adoption, leading to the narrative of hyperbitcoinization. To explain hyperbitcoinization in detail, it is a hypothetical scenario in which Bitcoin becomes the dominant global currency and replaces fiat currencies such as the US dollar, Euro, and others. And in this scenario, Bitcoin is widely accepted for goods and services, with most trade priced in BTC.

“Bitcoin is not for making money. Bitcoin is for saving money. It is not an inflation hedge. It is a hyperinflation hedge. The world once ran on gold. It will soon run once again on digital gold,” tweeted Srinivasan on Sunday.

Supporters of hyperbitcoinization believe it would bring benefits such as reduced inflation, increased financial privacy, and improved security. They argue that Bitcoin's decentralized nature and limited supply make it a superior alternative to government-issued currencies, which can be subject to manipulation and devaluation.

Meanwhile, critics argue that widespread adoption of Bitcoin could potentially lead to economic and social disruption as existing financial systems and institutions are disrupted or rendered obsolete.

“Hyperbitcoinization may come at you fast… When the printing starts in earnest, currency collapse can happen in days,” stated Srinivasan.

The Million Dollar Bet

It all started when the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) went down, and Joe Biden's administration announced the plan to provide support for all depositors at SVB, as well as make more capital available for other banks.

Last Sunday, the Treasury Department announced that it would make about $25 billion available to banks as a part of its new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP).

The former Coinbase CTO referenced this bailout of SVB and Signature Bank and pointed out that Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari previously said: “There is an infinite amount of cash at the Federal Reserve.”

At the time, Srinivasan tweeted, “Fed went from printing $25B to $2T in four days. The bagholder is the dollar holder. The system of control you inherited is ending,” which came after he pointed out how the Federal Reserve raising interest rates broke the banks and “caused a crisis.”

This Friday, Srinivasan commented on a tweet by former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey from October 2021, where Dorsey had predicted that hyperinflation would occur “soon” and have a significant impact. Srinivasan concurred with Dorsey's prediction, stating that hyperinflation is already underway and urged individuals to invest in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's probability of hitting $1 Million

Last year, Srinivasan explained that bitcoin has “already proven itself” as a hedge against hyperinflation in places like Venezuela, Lebanon, and Nigeria. He then went on to say that the largest cryptocurrency “may eventually have a gold-like role” as a hedge against inflation but emphasized that it “takes decades to show.”

But he believes that hyperinflation is here now and said, “We all knew this would come… I am spending $1M publicly in BTC to show that I am serious about the timing.”

When pseudonymous Twitter user James Medlock initiated, “I'll bet anyone $1 million dollars that the US does not enter hyperinflation,” Srinivasan jumped in, stating, “I will take that bet.”

The terms of the bet include Medlock buying 1 BTC and Srinivasan sending $1M USD to a mutually agreed custodian who'll be there to settle the bet in the event of digital dollar devaluation.

“This is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is worth ~$26k. The term is 90 days,” wrote the venture capitalist.

Under the proposed terms, if Bitcoin's price is not able to reach $1 million by June 17, Medlock will win $1 million worth of the dollar-pegged stablecoin USDC and 1 BTC. In the same way, if Bitcoin is worth at least $1 million by the date, then Srinivasan gets to keep the 1 BTC and the $1 million in USDC.

What Does the Market Think?

In Srinivasan's scenario, if BTC reaches a valuation of $1 million, the market capitalization of the largest cryptocurrency would increase to over $19 trillion from about $550 billion today, according to CoinGecko.

For comparison, the market cap of gold is currently about $13.2 trillion. Meanwhile, the value of the US stock market, as per Siblis Research, was just over $40.5 trillion at the end of last year.

The bold bet has the Crypto Twitter (CT) buzzed, with some pointing out its stupidity while others completely favor it. No matter which side one is on, everyone is talking about the $1 million per Bitcoin by June 17 bet.

Balaji was right?

Currently, BTC is trading above $28,000, marking a green 2023 after the brutal 2022. When the banks first started failing last week, crypto took a hit, with Bitcoin going down to $19,600, but in the past ten days, BTC has rallied 45.4% to climb to as high as $28,600 on Monday, March 20.

Venture capitalist Adam Cochran explored the possibility of the prediction coming true on Twitter. He pointed out that during the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, cryptocurrencies performed exceptionally well. However, Cochran believes that for Bitcoin to surpass the 547% surge it experienced between 2020 and 2022, it would require a more significant catalyst.

Adam Cochran Tweet

According to Cochran, a collapse of the United States and Europe's banking systems would be catastrophic, where it's more about going for bunkers than purchasing the world's largest cryptocurrency.

He then pointed out the major currency debasement that happened in the Weimar Republic: “In 1919, it was 100% inflation. It took years to play out, not 90 days. Compact hyperinflation into 90 days, the system breaks.”

While it's pretty clear that it's nearly impossible that Bitcoin would be hitting $1 million in the near future, let alone in the next three months, many support Srinivasan's idea.

Arthur Hayes Tweet

While not commenting on the bet itself, co-founder of BitMEX crypto exchange Arthur Hayes has been writing about how the banks' term funding program (BTFP) is a Yield Curve Control by another name which could see BTC hitting the million dollar target. “Get ready for infinite money printing and BTC $1 million,” he said.

Hayes has also pointed out that US banks are having an unrealized loss of $620 billion, and with the US government planning to provide a $4.4 trillion bailout to the banking industry, this will boost cryptocurrency prices, much like how the money printing during pandemic did during 2020 and 2021.

According to Bitcoin entrepreneur and educator Jimmy Song, Bitcoin could have some utility during an existential crisis like the one the financial system is experiencing today.

“Bitcoin will play a crucial role in mitigating some of the catastrophic effects,” he said. “As a strictly limited currency, Bitcoin offers a much better store of value, dampening the impact of hyperinflation.”

Jason Choi Tweet


Meanwhile, others see it as what it is, an attempt to put the limelight back onto Bitcoin and educate the public about the importance of decentralized currency with a hard cap in the current inflationary world as well as to attract attention to the banking problem.

“It doesn't matter if Balaji is right or not. The decision is binary. Do you use cryptocurrency or a CBDC? This has always been the fundamental axiom that propels crypto adoption. Freedom or Authoritarianism,” tweeted crypto trader @Crypto_McKenna.

Udi Wertheimer Tweet

Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher also pointed this out, saying that the bet has spurred the conversation around the “hyperbitcoinization theory.” The analyst said Srinivasan has “used an outlandish bet as a vehicle to perpetuate this narrative.”

This is certainly working with everyone talking about Bitcoin against the backdrop of the banking collapse. So, while it is highly unlikely BTC will reach $1 million anytime soon, Bitcoin awareness and adoption are expected to shoot up.

Click here to learn all about investing in Bitcoin.

Gaurav started trading cryptocurrencies in 2017 and has fallen in love with the crypto space ever since. His interest in everything crypto turned him into a writer specializing in cryptocurrencies and blockchain. Soon he found himself working with crypto companies and media outlets. He is also a big-time Batman fan.