Maglev, Hyperloop og fremtiden for tog

Vigtigheden af tog

Industriel rolle

The entire industrial era was built on the back of one technology: railroads and trains. By creating a low-cost way to move goods inland, railroads and trains boosted productivity massively. Later, the combustion engine for cars and trucks and then the jet engine for planes would take the spotlight.

But to this day, every industrial economy relies on trains to sustain its manufacturing beyond the coastal regions (which are supported by sea trade). Trains are especially crucial for moving raw materials and bulk industrial products like steel, cars, etc.

In some cases, it can take extreme forms, like den 704‑kilometer (437 mi) jernbanelinje, der forbinder jernminedestinationen i midten af Sahara i Mauretanien, med et 3‑kilometer langt tog, der transporterer 200‑300 godsvogne og i alt over 25.000 ton materiale på én gang.

Kilde: Tourifique

Derudover er togbaseret logistik også afgørende for alle moderne hære, som illustreret af vigtigheden af strategiske jernbaner i Ukraine-krigen, der dagligt transporterer tusindvis af granater og ammunition til frontlinjen.

Højhastighedsrejser

Modern trains have also evolved beyond the massive heavy industrial workhorse to compete efficiently with highways and airports.

No place is this more evident than in China, which has the world’s most dense high-speed railway network. At the end of 2023, the network had a total length of 45,000 km (28,000 miles), making up 2/3rds of the world’s high-speed railroads.

High-speed railroads, with speeds in the 200–380 km/h (120–240 mph) range, provide efficient transportation between cities.

Kontrasteret geografi

Train networks are highly dependent on public policy and national investment decisions. This is due to a combination of factors:

• De fleste jernbanenetværk er nationaliserede eller oligopoler på grund af teknologiens centraliserede karakter.
• Jernbaner kræver komplekse tilladelser og tvinger ofte grundejere til at sælge jord eller give adgangsrettigheder for at muliggøre nye projekter.
• De høje investeringsomkostninger for nye jernbaner afskrives over årtier, hvilket får de fleste private investorer til at være uvillige til at vente så længe.
• Jernbaner vil ofte ændre demografi, økonomi og den samlede udvikling af hele regioner og bycentre, hvilket gør deres rute stærkt politisk.

So it is maybe not a surprise that the more centralized a country’s politics, the more successful trains are in overtaking cars and highways.

Kina

China stands at the top of the railroad network. Not only does it have this 45,000km high-speed railroad network, but it also has another 114,000 network of slower railroads dedicated to servicing local areas and industrial facilities.

Kilde: Reddit

By the end of 2035, China is planning to reach 200,000 kilometers (124,274 miles) of railway tracks, including about 70,000 km of high-speed railway.

Alle byer med en befolkning på over 200.000 vil blive dækket af jernbanenetværket inden 2035, og de med en befolkning på mere end 500.000 vil blive forbundet til højhastighedsspor, ifølge den seneste plan.

Kina vil også fremme jernbanebyggelse i områder domineret af etniske minoriteter, såvel som grænseområder og underudviklede regioner i det centrale og vestlige Kina, for at hjælpe med at lindre fattigdom og revitalisere landet, sagde virksomheden.

Kilde: Reuters / State-owned China State Railway Group

The same importance of railroad can be seen in Asia, with for example India’s 132,310 km of tracks, albeit of the much slower kind.

Europa

Another train-friendly region is Europe, with a 202 131 km network but only 11.666km of high-speed railroads, mostly located in Western Europe.

The EU aims to triple high-speed rail traffic by 2050, viewing it as pivotal for a more efficient transport system amidst urbanization.

Kilde: Wikipedia

I Europa kan tog dog hæmme den internationale handelstransport på grund af et komplekst sæt af flere spændingsniveauer (både AC og DC) og signaleringssystemer samt forskellige sporvidder (afstanden mellem skinnerne), hvor Portugal + Spanien bruger deres eget, og Finland + de baltiske stater bruger den russiske bredde. Ikke desto mindre udføres 70 % af (hovedsageligt internationale) godstrafik gennem de schweiziske alper med jernbane.

Kilde: Wikipedia

Nordamerika

Lastly, North America, especially the USA, is lagging in train network for passengers, with mostly slow-moving Amtrak and freight railroads.

The US, however, has the largest rail transport network in the world, with 260,000 km of tracks (160,000 miles).  Historically, this has been key in the US development and the conquest of the West, notably with the first transcontinental railroad with train tracks central to connecting the hinterland to the coastal regions.

Fra damp til elektricitet

The first trains were powered by the very first steam engine, deriving their energy from coal. This was a revolution from the previous transport network only powered by wind and animal muscles, and created a massive economic boom everywhere it was implemented. Later on, it switched to diesel for more powerful and less polluting locomotives.

Finally, a new stage would be achieved with electrification, allowing for the train to not anymore carry its own fuel, and instead use more efficiently energy produced directly at power plants.

Kilde: Mesas Stamps

Electrification also opened the way for trains powered by fossil fuels, whether from nuclear energy or renewable. This makes modern trains a much less polluting alternative mode of transportation, with a radically lower carbon footprint.

For example, in the UK, despite the decarbonization of the electric still lagging behind, every type of rail transport, from national railroad to tram and subway, emitted only 35-28 grams of carbon dioxide-equivalents per passenger kilometer, below EVs (47g) and 5x less than diesel & petrol cars (170g).

Kilde: Our World In Data

Fremtiden for tog

Maglevs

Far from a stagnant and aging technology, train transportation is at the forefront of technological evolution and electrification.

A key innovation is the maglev train (magnetic levitation), first launched commercially in 2004. This science-fiction-looking technology allows the trains to literally levitate above the tracks.

This provides a few unique advantages compared to regular railroad and any other land-based transportation:

• Reducerer friktionen betydeligt, hvilket mindsker de samlede energitab.
• Mindre friktion reducerer også varmeproduktionen, hvilket muliggør meget højere hastigheder.
• Uden kontakt er de eneste hastighedsbegrænsninger knyttet til luftmodstand og maglev‑systemets kapacitet.
• Ingen kontakt skaber en meget glat oplevelse med langt færre vibrationer end på stålhjul, selv ved meget høje hastigheder.

The way maglev works is by generating massive magnetic fields, using superconductive magnets (displaying no electrical resistance). To do so, the magnets need to be cooled at -450F / -267C.

Kilde: Department Of Energy

En anden stor fordel er sikkerheden. Maglev‑tog drives af den elektrificerede guidebane. To tog, der kører på samme rute, kan ikke indhente hinanden og kollidere, fordi de alle får kraft til at bevæge sig med samme hastighed.

Tilsvarende kan traditionelle togafsporinger, som opstår ved for hurtige sving, ikke ske med Maglev. Jo længere et Maglev‑tog bevæger sig fra sin normale position mellem guidebanevæggene, desto stærkere bliver den magnetiske kraft, der skubber det tilbage på plads.

The maglev train market is estimated på $2,17 mia i 2023 og forventes at vokse til $3,13 mia i 2031, svarende til en årlig vækstrate på 4,7 %.

Ubegrænset hastighed?

The highest speed achieved by a maglev was achieved by Japanese JR Central’s L0 superconducting maglev, which reached a top speed of 603 kilometers per hour (375 mph) in 2015.

This is probably somewhere close to the top achievable limit for maglev, due to increasing air resistance the higher the speed goes.

In any case, travelling above the speed of sound (1,235 km/h / 767 mph) would create a supersonic boom that would be damaging to both the railroad infrastructure and its surroundings.

Masseadoption?

Maglev is still a relatively rare technology, with most high-speed railroads achieving their speed with conventional methods.

Still, turning to mass installations of maglevs could eliminate most of the need for regional air transport like inside Europe or across the North American continent, as 400-600km/h can be a match to planes, especially when taking into account the delays associated to airports and boarding planes (security checks, boarding luggage, etc.).

And combined with the decarbonization of the electric grid, it could have a massive impact on global carbon emissions.

The ideal locations would probably be inside and between the world megalopolis, notably on US coasts, North of India, Java island (Indonesia), and Western Europe.

Kilde: Pinterest

Hyperloop

What if maglev trains were not constrained by the speed of sound?

This idea might initially sound outlandish, but there is a way to avoid creating a sonic boom and suffering from excessive air friction: Simply remove the air. This is the concept of hyperloop, popularized by Elon Musk in a white paper in 2013, proposing a trip from Los Angeles to San Francisco in only 30 minutes.

Kilde: The Verge

The idea is to encase the maglev train into a depressurized tube or tunnel. This way, the maglev system can accelerate without being limited by air friction.

The idea immediately gathered a cult following and was under development by Hyperloop One, formerly Virgin Hyperloop. However, this company closed definitively in 2023, after running out of money.

This setback has led many to prematurely claim the death of the concept, calling it (pun intended) a pipe dream. This was premature, as other hyperloop-like initiatives are moving ahead.

Hyperloop‑prototyper

The first one is Dutch Hardt Hyperloop which announced that it has successfully tested its hyperloop vehicle in september 2024. This is only proof of the vehicle moving and vacuum being maintained, but a first step.

Other active companies on this topic in Western countries are Musk’s Boring Company and Italian HyperloopTT.

In train-enthusiast China, a maglev train recently completed a test at a 2-kilometer-long (1.2-mile) pipeline with a low-vacuum environment in the Shanxi province. This was tested by China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC).

The design is aiming for a speed of 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) per hour. The system also previously achieved a record-breaking speed of 623 kilometers (387 miles) per hour in a test run under non-vacuum conditions.

The goal would not be to stop at 1,000km/h but to go as far as 4,000km/h in the long term.

So in theory, it could be used for intercontinental travels putting it to par with not-yet existing commercial hypersonic spaceplanes, bringing for example Berlin to Beijing to only 2-3h travel time or LA to NY in just 1-2h.

However, hyperloop systems will need a lot of progress in design and engineering to become a reality. Among the few difficulties will be:

• Sikre vedligeholdelse af et stærkt vakuum på hele linjen.
  • Dette inkluderer håndtering af risikoen for uønsket pludseligt vakuumtab efter en ulykke eller endda et terrorangreb.
• Sikre og effektiv levering af den enorme mængde energi, som systemet kræver.
• Integrere hyperloop i det eksisterende netværk af jernbaner og togstationer.
• Opbygge dedikeret infrastruktur.
  • De ekstreme hastigheder vil begrænse rutevalg, hvilket tvinger hyperloop‑udvikleren til at benytte dyre superbroer og tunneler for at krydse eventuelle forhindringer.

Andre innovationer

Train transportation is a technology that has historically always benefited from innovation in other industries. It first leveraged the steam engine used for pumping water in coal mines, then the newly invested diesel engine, and then electricity and superconductor magnets.

So, it makes sense to look at the future of trains in the broader context of other technological progress.

Højtemperatur‑superledere

A key part of the maglev and hyperloop system is the need for superconductive magnets. These require today’s ultra-low temperature, which is technically difficult and energy-intensive.

This might change soon, with superconductor materials requiring less cold or even room temperatures. We discussed in detail their development and the latest news in “Fremskridt inden for superledning baner vejen for en ny teknologisk revolution”.

Overall, would superconductivity be achieved at a much higher temperature, this would make maglev a far superior option to the classical high-speed railroad.

It would also make trivial the transmission of absurd quantities of power over long distances, making a lot more economical renewables, hyperloop, as well as helping develop other civilization-altering technologies like nuclear fusion.

AI, selvkørende tog & smarte jernbaner

Automation and AI are other quickly progressing technologies. As we are envisioning the development of self-driving cars, able to handle the complexity of urban roads, it makes sense that we should achieve self-driving trains even sooner. This is in particular because trains operate in a much more controlled and known environment, even if at an even higher speed.

AI, samt 5G‑forbindelse og IoT (Internet of Things), kan hjælpe med en lang række jernbane‑relaterede opgaver, including:

• Sikker overvågning.
• Opdateringer i realtid og smart billetudstedelse.
• Automatiserede togservice.
• Selvkørende tog.
• Forudsigende vedligeholdelse.
• Forbindelse, automatiseret togkontrol & digital signalering.

Another activity that could be boosted with digitalization, AI, and also blockchain is logistics. Loading-unloading freight cars, switching wagons between trains, cross-border transport, and interconnection to truck transportation, all could be semi or fully automatized, making rail freight a lot more efficient and cost-effective.

Tunneling

Another option we might see is a lot more transportation (including rail) through tunneling. This is another one of Elon Musk’s personal obsessions, with the Boring Company likely to have been founded to equally help solve transportation on Earth as it is to build habitat on Mars.

This might be a favored option for future hyperloop systems, as a tunnel will be more stable, less vulnerable to accidents, and overall easier to keep in a strong vacuum than a suspended tube.

Masse‑drivere

The key idea of a mass driver is that a shuttle could be sent into orbit by accelerating it enough on the ground that it would not need an onboard propellant.

In essence, it would be a hyperloop, but with the goal of reaching escape velocity to propel a spaceship in orbit without on-board propellants.

The launch track will also need to be hundreds, if not thousands of kilometers long, with the most promising candidate area being the Tibetan plateau.

Kilde: Acepedia

Måske ikke overraskende ser Kina allerede på at udvikle sådan en teknologi, så den kan være tættere på, end vi forventer.

Hvis den lykkes, kunne den reducere de allerede kraftigt sænkede omkostninger ved orbital opsendelse med SpaceX med yderligere en faktor 10, med estimater der sætter prisen til kun $60/kg.

Som en sidebemærkning kunne denne type system først bruges med mindre modeller til at drive fly ved en hastighed, hvor hypersoniske scramjet‑motorer kan fungere, hvilket muliggør meget hurtige hypersoniske flyvninger.

Så hvis transkontinentale hyperloops ikke er en økonomisk levedygtig mulighed, kan det være, at masse‑driver / opsendelses‑hyperloop til hypersonisk flyvning stadig kan anvende denne teknologi.

Investering i togrelateret teknologi

Despite gathering a lot less attention than aerospace or EVs, trains, maglev and maybe in the future hyperloop are at the forefront or revolutionizing mankind’s means of transportation and the economy.

China has been so far leading the way, but the rest of the world is taking note and looking to massively expand their railroad capacity as well.

If you are not interested in picking train-related companies, you can also look into ETFs like SmartETFs Smart Transportation & Technology ETF (MOTO), iShares US Transportation ETF (IYT), or SPDR S&P Transportation ETF (XTN)which will provide more diversified exposure to capitalize on the strategically vital transportation and railroad industry.

Jernbane‑ og togvirksomheder

1. Siemens Aktiengesellschaft (SIE.DE)

Siemens is a strong company in the industrial sector, with activity in electronics heavy industries, infrastructure, mobility, and healthcare.

Kilde: Siemens

Siemens er en stærk virksomhed inden for den industrielle sektor med aktiviteter inden for elektronik, tung industri, infrastruktur, mobilitet og sundhedspleje.

Virksomhedens aktiviteter inden for IoT er spredt over flere segmenter, herunder automatisering (62 % af de samlede digitale industrier) og smart infrastruktur.

Sundhedsaktiviteten fokuserer mere på billeddannelse, analyser og robotteknologi, mens mobilitetssegmentet primært omfatter tog‑ og jernbaneinfrastruktur.

Virksomheden ser en stor mulighed inden for automatisering på grund af den globalt faldende befolkning og “glokalisering” (eller “reshoring” af industriel kapacitet tættere på de endelige markeder). Den stigende tilstedeværelse af vedvarende energi i elnettet øger også efterspørgslen efter et “smart grid”, der kan håndtere disse mere intermitterende og variable energikilder.

I den niche, hvor den er aktiv, er Siemens en meget stærk konkurrent og rangerer som nr. 1 inden for fabrikautomatisering, jernbaneautomatisering, netautomatisering og vertikal industrisoftware (inklusive 1.300 cybersikkerhedseksperter).

Kilde: Siemens

Siemens er en aktie, der er placeret til at drage fordel af elektrificering, reshoring, IoT, automatisering, jernbaner og det stigende teknologiniveau i industrielle processer generelt.

Som leder inden for fremstilling af jernbaneudstyr vil den drage direkte fordel af investeringer i sektoren samt indirekte af trenden med re‑industrialisation.

Takket være sit brede teknologispektrum vil den være i frontlinjen af opbygning af smarte jernbaner ved at udnytte sin erfaring inden for automatisering og IoT fra andre allerede mere digitaliserede industrier.

2. Alstom (ALO.PA)

The French company was among the first to create a high-speed train, which became the world-famous TGV (“Train a Grande Vitesse”).

I dag er det globalt nr. 1 inden for rullende materiel (togkøretøjer, over 4.600 togvogne/år), tjenester og skræddersyede systemer samt nr. 2 inden for signalering, delvis takket være opkøbet af Bombardier Transportation i 2021.

Kilde: Alstom

Alstom er førende inden for automatisering af tognetværk og har opnået det højeste automatiseringsniveau, GoA4, på franske regionale toglinjer i 2023.

Kilde: Alstom

Det opnåede dette gennem sin “Automatic Train Operation”, som omfatter automatisk togkontrol, beskyttelse og overvågning.

Dette system resulterer i 45 % mindre energiforbrug og 30 % større passagerkapacitet pr. linje.

Selvom den er førende i sin branche, har virksomheden haft nogle turbulente år med hensyn til de finansielle resultater, startende med en redningspakke på €3,2 milliarder fra den franske regering i 2003.

Siden da har Alstom-gruppen afstået fra sine aktiviteter inden for skibsbygning og elektrisk transmission til kernedivisionen Areva i 2004, derefter sine kraft‑ og netdivisioner til GE i 2014 og sin tunge gasturbinforretning til Ansaldo Energia.

Dette gør den nye Alstom til en udelukkende tog‑fokuseret virksomhed, i modsætning til det komplekse industrielle konglomerat fra begyndelsen af 2000‑erne.

Gruppen har arbejdet på at genopbygge sin rentabilitet og sin ordrebeholdning med stærk vækst i fremtidige leverancer siden 2022.

Kilde: Alstom

Generelt ser virksomheden et midtfristet markedspotentiale på op til >€230 mia for perioden 2025‑2028, hvilket gør det muligt at vælge, hvilke kontrakter der vil være rentable, samt at absorbere virksomhedens opskalering af produktionskapacitet.