Autonome taxaer forventes at generere $4 trillion i omsætning inden 2027

For treogtredive år siden blev en sci‑fi‑film med titlen ‘Total Recall’ udgivet.  Handlingen foregår i år 2084 på en koloniseret Mars og forestiller sig forskellige futuristiske teknologier som udvidet og virtuel virkelighed samt hjerneimplantater; hver af dem forudser moderne projekter fra virksomheder som Meta og Neuralink.  Ved siden af disse futuristiske elementer var der et andet, mindre prangende eksempel, som ofte overses på grund af sin komiske præsentation – den autonome taxitjeneste ‘Johnny Cab’.

While its presentation was a product of its time, the idea of a Johnny Cab is now a reality, with various companies set to launch their own iteration in the coming few years, and a couple overachievers already having left the gates.  The following is a brief look at this technology, and how it may change the way we travel in the not-so-distant future.

Producenter og Innovatører

Before taking a closer look at how autonomous taxi services can change the way we approach travel, we have highlighted below a few companies actively working to make this type of service a reality.

Waymo

Waymo begyndte som virksomheden bag det oprindelige Google Self-Driving Car Project i 2009.  Nu, med næsten 15 års erfaring og data fra 20 milliarder kørte miles, har Waymo etableret sig som en leder inden for sektoren.  Det var også den første til officielt at lancere autonome taxaer i udvalgte områder som Phoenix, Arizona, og San Francisco, Californien.
Waymo er et datterselskab af Alphabet Inc. (GOOG ) og søsterselskab til Google.  Indtil nu har de rejst $5.5B over tre finansieringsrunder.

Tesla (TSLA)

While new competitors are popping up all the time, Tesla (TSLA ) remains the face of Electric Vehicles (EVs).  Not only that, through its expansive fleet of vehicles on the road today, it has become a major data aggregator, allowing for it to develop the foundations for a future autonomous taxi service, and ancillary technologies like artificial intelligence.

While 2022 saw a sharp decline in TSLA stock, the tides have turned, with 2023 marking an impressive turnaround of +52.39% YTD at time of writing.  Despite a rough 2022, the company was still able to boast a revenue of $81.46B over this time.

Tesla er baseret i Texas, USA.

Baidu (BIDU)

In China, Baidu is a technology giant.  Not only is the company the nations largest search engine provider, it is actively developing a plethora of forward-thinking technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), and autonomous driving.  Notably, Baidu has already launched a self-driving taxi service comprised of multiple vehicle models like the Apollo RT6.
Baidu er baseret i Beijing, Kina.  Aktier i virksomheden har set en stigning i værdi siden begyndelsen af 2023, op 24.85% på tidspunktet for skrivning.  I 2022 var virksomheden i stand til at generere en omsætning på over $143.8 milliarder.

Autonome taxaer

So we know that the cult-classic ‘Total Recall’ has already proven to be prophetic in its portrayal of future technologies, and have already highlighted a few of the companies leading the charge forward with respect to autonomous taxis.  Why are these companies developing such technologies though? How are they making such quick progress? And what ancillary benefits can we expect from such services?

En lukrativ mulighed

The ‘why’ is easy.  Autonomous taxi services have the potential to be quite lucrative.  As stated, there is already a fervid race occurring among various vehicle manufacturers, as each work to scale their autonomous driving solutions.

With investment fund managers like ARK Invest forecasting that “autonomous taxis could generate $4 trillion in revenue in 2027”, it is no wonder why this is the case.

Kilde: ARK Invest ‘Big Ideas 2023’, Page 113

Look forward to 2030, and that $4 trillion turns in to $9 trillion – a huge opportunity for those able to capitalize and gain a first-movers advantage.

So where is this revenue going to come from?  Beyond replacing existing taxi services, ARK Invest notes that there should be a transition away from short-haul flights that currently account for an annual revenue of ~$100 billion.  This sentiment, shared by ARK Invest, is based on a simple cost assessment of services, taking in to account dollars per mile.  It notes that if service providers can lower this to $0.25 per mile, autonomous taxi services will “be more cost effective than 95% of short-haul journeys.”

Data er konge

As with the development of many technologies in the modern world, data is king.  Those who have access to the greatest dataset will typically have the ability to produce the best offering in the most timely manner.  With that in mind, there is a clear front runner, and its name is Tesla (TSLA).

Kilde: ARK Invest ‘Big Ideas 2023’, Page 109