Forex
Contrasting Fortunes for Forex Market Big Hitters as Stocks Move Higher
- Positive Data but GBP/USD Struggles
- EUR/USD Buoyed by Optimism
- US-China Trade Deal Still Alive
Although the Pound has managed to break a four-day losing streak to begin the week, the pair has struggled to gain further traction in the forex market on Tuesday. This comes even as UK PMIs come inn at more positive rates than expected. On the other side of the coin, the Euro is gaining strength on upbeat US data and a general sense of optimism in the market. This all comes on a day when the American markets too have opened strongly as the trade deal with China does not seem to be off the table as had previously been thought.
UK PMIs Hit Four Month High Point
The GBP/USD had been struggling throughout last week. Forex brokers had noted that the cable fell to near monthly lows. This losing streak was balanced somewhat by a sharp gain in trading of more than 1% yesterday. Further advances beyond the 1.25 mark have so far been rebuffed though. The major concerns holding back Sterling here appear to be the ongoing Brexit negotiation saga, and fears over where this will leave the UK future in trade.
Positive news though, is that the British economy in general, appears to be bouncing back. The manufacturing PMI figures came in at 50.8, while the services data also hit a multiple month high point of 47.0. These more than optimistic numbers are still tempered slightly by the fact that the British economy is forecasted to shrink almost 12% in 2020, with a rebound of around 5% expected by analysts in the following year.
Euro Marching Forward on More Positive Data
PMI Data across the EU was also released today. This came in above expectations, with preliminary numbers in manufacturing noting a sharp upturn to 46.9. The Euro has taken this opportunity, along with the support of US markets, and driven above the 1.13 benchmark.
US PMI numbers are also set to be released today. Analysts are expecting a similar bounce back as the country continues to get back to work. This is despite a rising number of coronavirus cases in some states. Florida as an example has noticed a surge in numbers, and have just recently crossed 100,000 cases. Still though, there are no plans to scale back plans for reopening.
US-China Trade Deal Still on the Table
There had been widespread concern from those forex trading, and across the markets overnight that the US-China trade deal may be dead in the water. White House trade advisor Peter Navarro has insisted that his words were taken out of context, and that the deal is still very much in place. President Trump has further backed up this stance.
News that the deal was still alive has had a suitable impact on the US market too. Early trading shows that the major indices are all trading up, with the NASDAQ continuing to hit new heights.
- US Retail Sales Grow Slower Than Expected
- Easing Coronavirus Restrictions Boost GBP Markets
- Biggest USD Sell-Off Since 2010
Retail sales data in the US came in lower than expected on Friday. The figures for July did show a slight increase though this was significantly below the numbers forecast. This has led to sideways trading in many major forex market pairs including the EUR/USD as traders consider their next moves. Meanwhile in the UK, Sterling continues to improve on news that some restrictions may be eased in the coming days. This all comes amid the worst week in a decade for the US Dollar index which is trading just above 93.00 at the time of writing.
Mixed Retail Sales Data a Stumbling Block for US
Forex trading in the major currency pairs continues to be steady today with no strong direction taken one way or the other. This comes in a large part due to the mixed retail sales data released by Washington today. This data noted a 1.2% increase in July. The figure is well below the 2.3% that had been expected. This would point to a recovery slowdown even as the S&P 500 bids to reach new heights.
There has still been no further progress with a proposed second stimulus deal in the country. Both sides are at loggerheads over the terms of a new deal as congress heads for a recess which could see the talks drag on for several weeks. This level of uncertainty leaves an already weak US Dollar, and other sectors of the economy in limbo.
Sterling Shows Strength as Reopening Moves Closer
The Pound has taken advantage of a weak US Dollar and increasing optimism over a successful Brexit negotiation to strengthen further. The currency has reached a several month high against the JPY breaking through the 140.00 threshold, and has also pushed beyond 1.31 in US Dollar trading. Sterling traders have been boosted further by hopes that domestic lockdown measures could be eased.
Forex brokers have also noted an uptick in support for the GBP as the chief negotiator for the UK in the ongoing Brexit negotiations, David Frost, commented on Thursday that he had high hopes of reaching a deal in September. This would undoubtedly push the Pound higher if a deal which has been stagnating for months, could be concluded.
US Dollar Index Continues to Spell Trouble
Despite the improving unemployment claim numbers in the US which came in under 1 million for the first time during the pandemic this week, the US Dollar continues to weaken against major world currencies. This is reflected in a very lacklustre US Dollar Index which has failed to gain any upward momentum and is headed for another losing week, the longest such streak since 2010.
There now exists genuine and credible fear of a US Dollar collapse with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic taking its toll, and numbers failing to rebound on expectation. This has led many traders away from the Dollar toward more traditional safe havens like the Japanese Yen, and Swiss Franc.
- GBP Gains on USD Despite Huge Employment Drop
- Hopes Build For Airline Bailout as Stocks Surge
- Putin Claims Russian Victory in Vaccine Race
Even after revealing the largest quarterly employment drop in more than a decade, the GBP forex market managed to continue gaining ground on a US Dollar displaying weakness. More than 94,000 new unemployment claims were lodged in the UK for July alongside the employment drop. The currency weakness though has not negatively impacted Wall Street as stocks push for an eighth consecutive day of gains. It has also been widely reported that Russian leader Vladimir Putin has claimed his country to have developed the first coronavirus vaccine, with his daughter being among the initial recipients.
10-Year Record Employment Drop in UK
Employment numbers in the UK have seen their largest quarterly drop since 2009. This comes as the figures show there are 220,000 less people in employment than the previous quarter. The number of people in receipt of unemployment benefit has also seen a sharp rise of more than 100% over the same period, standing at 2.7 million people. The overall unemployment rate stands at 3.9% though this is not reflective of the situation on the ground where millions remain backed by government fiscal measures.
Still these dire numbers have not taken a toll on the Pound to date. This is due to an ongoing combination of US Dollar weakness combined with a prevailing optimism from the Bank of England that they will continue to support the economy if is encounters another stumbling block. Those forex trading the may also be buoyed by a renewed positive push on Wall Street which has pushed many away from the safety of the US Dollar.
Possible Bailout Helps Airline Stocks to Soar
Despite still being down record numbers, the fact that the TSA has clocked air travel at its highest rate since March was good enough for airline stocks to rise strongly in trading on Monday. This is a positive sign of a return to some degree of normality for a sector which has been hugely hampered by COVID-19.
Forex brokers were not the only ones to note strong activity in certain markets. Stock traders continued to push flagging airline stocks back up yesterday as support continued to grow for a new stimulus package to help the industry in the amount of $25 billion in federal payroll backing for airlines.
Russia Declares Successful Virus Vaccine Development
Despite some skepticism, Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that the country has successfully developed the world’s first coronavirus vaccine. With many countries racing through trials to develop a vaccine, this would be a landmark achievement for Moscow.
He has also reported that one of his daughters has successfully received the vaccine. There are plans for mass vaccination to begin early next year. There are still widespread concerns that the virus may not have been fully tested, but the news is sure to stir a global reaction as markets on Wall Street open in search of another success day with futures trading positively.
- US Jobless Numbers Drop as Euro Reach Highs
- Interest Rate Hold Helps GBP/USD
- Markets Wait on Stimulus Bill Update
Both the Euro and the Pound were given a timely boost against the US Dollar as unemployment numbers in the US came in much lower than expected. The number of new claims filed dropped almost 250,000. Sterling has been boosted further by the news that the Bank of England will leave interest rates unchanged for now. This positive news has not though impacted the opening on Wall Street as traders hold out for more news on the proposed stimulus deal.
Better Than Expected Unemployment Data Provides Confidence
Although unemployment numbers are still easily at record-setting numbers, there are continuing signs of movement in the right direction as the number of weekly claims has continued to trend downward, albeit against the expectations of analysts. They had forecast a figure above 1.4 million, though the number which came in is far below that at 1.186 million.
Continuing claims have also dropped by more than 800,000 and while there is still a great distance to go, traders and the forex market alike have been quick to take the positives from the situation. The EUR/USD market quickly moved to a new two-year high above 1.19 though this has since dropped back closer to 1.185 as many forex trading the pair await the outcome of the proposed second stimulus package for the US economy.
Pound Receives Boost from BoE
The Pound has been trading well in recent days, shaking off concerns over the stalling Brexit negotiations and a step back in the UK lockdown reopening process to gain further against a weakened US Dollar. It was further aided today by news that the bank will not move to negative interest rates at any time in the near future.
Although a positive message was taken by traders, and forex brokers noted an uptick in trading of the Pound, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey was also quick to warn that this should not be perceived as an optimistic outlook, and that the bank will continue to monitor developments closely. In other positive developments though, they also revised GDP projections to predict a 2020 contraction of 9.5% instead of the previously estimated 14%. This has all left the GBP/USD trading above 1.315, having hit a multi-month high.
Quiet Market Opening as Stimulus News is Awaited
Despite the drop in unemployment numbers, markets on Wall Street opened quietly on Thursday. This follows recent days of strong gains with the S&P 500 ending yesterday within 2% of its all-time high level.
Many traders are poised and waiting for further news on the new coronavirus stimulus package which has so far failed to overcome an impasse with lawmakers in Washington. It seems that several concessions have been made in a bid to get the package passed, though there still appears to be a gap between what is being proposed, and what some feel is appropriate.