MSCI Index Rules: The Risk Facing Strategy in 2026

Since the late 1980s, MSCI indexes have provided investors with exposure to top-performing international assets. These funds serve as an important benchmark for gauging ETF market health. Today, these indexes are more vital than ever, especially since they include firms like Strategy, which have pioneered digital asset adoption.

Given their importance, getting your stock included in these indexes can result in significant capital inflow. Conversely, if you lose your listing on the MSCI indexes, a significant outflow will likely occur. Here’s why Strategy may get excluded from this index in the future and what it could mean for its investors moving forward.

What Is MSCI? A Quick Overview

MSCI originally launched as Morgan Stanley Capital International in 1969. This global investment firm has been pivotal in driving global market growth. It launched its first MSCI index on March 31, 1986, and by 1988, the company had multiple indexes listed.

In 2007, MSCI became an independent entity. Since that time, the company has risen to become one of the leading investment research firms. Additionally, it has seen strong support from institutional investors, including  BlackRock, Inc., which recently disclosed to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that it held 5,942,793 shares of MSCI Inc.

MSCI Indexes

MSCI offers several market-cap-weighted indexes, alongside several other services, including providing risk analytics, performance tracking, and governance options. Market-cap-weighted indexes multiply the stock price by the number of outstanding shares to get a total. The total is then used to assign a weight to each stock.

Keenly, these funds utilize algorithms to rebalance portfolio holdings based on their weights. These algorithms are often free-float adjusted and can occur at preset intervals. In the case of MSCI indexes, the system rebalances quarterly following an internal review.

Why MSCI Indexes are Important

The MSCI indexes now play several vital roles within the trading sector. For one, they set industry-wide benchmarks and standards for ETFs, which help to protect investors and drive revenue.

These standards include everything from transparency to helping to ensure investors gain access to the markets they desire. Currently, +1400 equity indexes track MSCI indexes. This means that +$2T in assets are linked to these funds. Here are some of the company’s most popular options.

MSCI World Index

The MSCI World Index is the company’s most popular option. It focuses on developed markets globally. You can think of it kind of like an S&P 500, but for investors seeking international exposure and with way more stocks included.

Source – MSCI

Specifically, it tracks companies in 23 nations, including Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

MSCI Global includes 1321  large and mid-cap companies and is seen by analysts as a global economic gauge.  Currently, 26% of the index is tech-based. Additionally, 72%  of the stocks in the index are U.S.-based firms. However, this percentage changes often as the index rebalances quarterly.

MSCI ACWI

The MSCI ACWI index expands on the World Index concept. It includes 47 nations and 2,900 stocks. Specifically, it introduces 24 emerging economies to the index versus the World Index. This equates to 10-30% exposure to these emerging markets.

The ACWI index includes 20-30% tech stocks, which falls in line with MSCI’s investment strategy. Investors seeking more diversity will often turn towards the ACWI index as a viable option. Its higher diversification makes ACWI a better economic gauge, while the World Index remains a smarter option for those seeking less risk exposure.

How MSCI Decides Which Stocks Qualify

One of the reasons why MSCI continues to see success with its indexes is its intense vetting protocol. Every asset must meet certain requirements to qualify for listing on the MSCI indexes. These requirements are meant to ensure that stable overall revenue trumps speculative assessments.

Interestingly, MSCI  has set out stringent guidelines regarding digital asset treasury companies (DATs). These requirements are designed to limit risk and establish clear guidelines for companies seeking inclusion.

However, one of these guidelines could cause Bitcoin’s leading supporters to drop from their index. The requirement that digital assets cannot exceed 50% of the total asset value is the rule in question. This requirement was put in place to address the fact that firms operate as investment vehicles rather than traditional businesses.

Why Strategy (MSTR) Might Get Excluded

Strategy is among the largest Bitcoin holders in the world. The company has built up these holdings over the years. Wisely, the firm utilizes a cost-average purchasing strategy, which enabled the company to pay $66k per coin when averaged. Today, it has approximately 650,000 Bitcoin worth around $60B, making it the second largest Bitcoin holder behind only Satoshi Nakamoto, the coin’s creator.

MSTR saw a major boost in capital after it was listed on the MSCI index in May 2024. Its inclusion in the fund was celebrated as a major milestone for digital assets. It also helped the fund secure investor confidence and capital.

Now, because Strategy’s primary activity involves digital-asset treasury management, its stock is on the chopping block. MSCI has already notified the firm and has begun a consultation period to decide what to do next. This period will conclude on December 31, 2025.

MSCI will make its final decision on January 15, 2026. However, it won’t implement any changes until February 2026. Part of the reason why MSCI has taken this drawn-out stance to discuss the decision is that this requirement was put in place when digital assets were seen as more of a risk. As such, other assets like gold don’t have 50% treasury limits in place.

What Could Happen if MSTR Gets Excluded?

Some significant changes could occur if MSCI decides to drop MSTR from the World Index. Remember, this index serves as a guide for global investors. As such, getting listed on the index can increase inflow by as much as 300% and prices by 2-3% on average.

Worse Case

Getting dropped from the index would hurt both the company and the fund. Some analysts believe that the fund could see as much as $2.8B leave, as MSTR is a hugely popular option. If other indexes were to take the same approach, it could result in these funds losing almost $8.8B, according to some reports.

The decision would also flood the market with MSTR stocks as indexes would need to offload these stocks to rebalance to the new standards. This action could result in a sudden drop in MSTR stock prices as investors try to dump billions of shares.

Best Case

Not all analysts believe that MSTR delisting from the MSCI World index would have a severe effect on the stock. They argue that the MSCI index exclusion discussion has been ongoing, and investors are aware of the chance of delisting, meaning that the risk is already priced into share values.

MSCI–MSTR Review Timeline and Key Dates

According to MSCI company documentation, investors will learn the answer to these questions soon enough. The MSCI consultation period officially ends in 2025, with their final decision announced in mid-January. The goal is to have the official decisions made with enough time to keep in line with their quarterly rebalancing.

If removed from the index, there are protocols that MSTR will need to adhere to protect investors. For one, they must allow for passive fund sales without forcing sales. According to MSCI guidelines, this period could extend for as long as 90 days. However, the timeframe can be adjusted following approval.

Appeal Process

Even if MSTR gets removed from the MSCI World Index, it will have the ability to appeal the decision. The appeal process allows the company to argue its case or make adjustments to fall back in line with the requirements. From there, MSCI will undertake another review and provide time for its stakeholders’ concerns to be addressed.

Strategy

Strategy entered the market in 1989 under the name MicroStrategy. It originated as a data mining firm and was founded by long-time Bitcoiner, Michael J. Saylor, Sanju Bansal, and Thomas Spahr. One of the company’s earliest clients was McDonald’s, which signed a $10M agreement that helped the company expand operations.

Strategy was first listed on the NASDAQ in 1998 under the MSTR ticker. Fast forward to 2020, and Strategy begins to pivot towards a Bitcoin treasury strategy. This decision paid off greatly for the company, which is now considered a global powerhouse in terms of digital asset investments.

Recognising the volatility of their Bitcoin reserve strategy, Strategy has begun to make adjustments to buffer against any future volatility. One such maneuver involved the company creating a $1.44B reserve designed specifically to buffer against unstable markets.

Latest Strategy (MSTR) Stock News and Performance

Why MSCI Might Exclude MSTR | Conclusion

The exclusion of Strategy from the MSCI index would be a major development in the sector. However, it’s impossible to say exactly how this would affect the market or MSTR stock. On one hand, MSCI is stringent on its guidelines. However, given the sudden change in regulatory climate and public opinion surrounding Bitcoin, it’s also plausible that they make an exception or update their requirements.

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