ऋण, DOGE, और दुविधाएँ: क्या मस्क और ट्रम्प अमेरिका की $1 ट्रिलियन ब्याज समस्या को हल कर सकते हैं?

अमेरिका का ऋण और बढ़ती चिंताएँ

In the past few years, the level of debt accrued by the US government has been extensively discussed in the financial press, mostly due to skyrocketing interest payments.

स्रोत: Federal Reserve Of St Louis

अमेरिकी ऋण पर ब्याज भुगतान वार्षिक ट्रिलियन डॉलर की सीमा को पार कर चुका है, जो पहले से ही विशाल रक्षा बजट (वैश्विक सैन्य खर्च का 40%) से अधिक है।

यह और भी अधिक प्रासंगिक हो गया है क्योंकि आगामी ट्रम्प प्रशासन प्रतीत होता है कि एलोन मस्क को “समस्या को हल करने” के लिए निर्मित होने वाले DOGE (डिपार्टमेंट ऑफ गवर्नमेंट इफ़िशिएंसी) के माध्यम से नियुक्त करेगा।

“एक महत्वपूर्ण % लोग यहाँ तक नहीं जानते कि राष्ट्रीय ऋण जैसी कोई चीज़ मौजूद है!

जो जानते हैं, अक्सर नहीं जानते कि यह कितना बड़ा है या कि हमारे ब्याज भुगतान अब हमारे सैन्य खर्च से अधिक हो गए हैं। केवल एक छोटा % समझता है कि सरकारी अधिक खर्च से मुद्रास्फीति होती है।

Elon Musk

Often predicted and always postponed, a debt crisis in the world’s largest economy and the international reserve currency could be devastating and have wide ramifications, including for assets like Bitcoin and gold.

So, it is important for investors to properly evaluate this risk, and understand how to manage it in their investment strategy.

एक आसन्न संकट?

With the US stock market, especially AI and tech stocks, reaching all-time highs, it is easy to feel that the US economic situation is solid. However, there are a few problems born during the pandemic that are still lingering.

मुद्रास्फीति

One problem is the persistence of inflation, which remains above 2.5%.

स्रोत: Trading Economics

This could be an issue, as it means that any tentative to reduce interest rates, which would make the US debt more manageable, could reignite 4-6% (or more) inflation.

 “If we don’t tackle the national debt, all tax revenue will go to paying interest and there will be nothing left for anything else.”

If the issue isn’t addressed the dollar will be worth nothing.”

Elon Musk

• चीन, मेक्सिको, कनाडा आदि से आयात पर टैरिफ।
• आप्रवासन को सीमित करने और अवैध प्रवासियों के निर्वासन से श्रम की कमी।
• बाहरी ऊर्जा झटके, जैसे ईरान और/या रूस के साथ संघर्ष का बढ़ना, यूरेनियम ईंधन की कमी, आदि।

If inflation stays at higher levels, so will interest rates, keeping the US interest debt payments above the trillion dollar mark.

कमज़ोर बैंकिंग प्रणाली

While there was no systematic failure like in 2008, there have been a few close calls in the last 2 years. First, there was the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank and a few others in Spring 2023, the third-largest bank failure in United States history. Then, there was a mini stock market crash in अगस्त 2024 due to the weakening of the Japanese Yen.

While none of these events created a larger crisis, thanks to prompt intervention by central banks, this nonetheless indicates some potential hidden problems and instability in the global financial system.

A big factor behind these sudden weaknesses is massive unrealized losses hidden in the bank balance sheets. Actually, these losses are much larger than any losses during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

स्रोत: Wolf Street

Behind these losses are 2 main contributing factors:

• वाणिज्यिक संपत्ति मूल्यों में गिरावट, विशेषकर कार्यालय स्थानों में, महामारी के दौरान और बाद में वर्क-फ़्रॉम-होम (WFH) के विस्फोट के कारण।
• सरकारी बांड मूल्यों में गिरावट, दशकों की घटती ब्याज दरों के बाद ब्याज दरों में वृद्धि के कारण।

Considering that both bonds and real estate प्रत्येक represent 3x larger asset values than the entire equities markets, any issue in these segments can quickly become a global problem.

स्रोत: MicroStrategy

DOGE प्रभाव?

Historically, successive US administrations, both Democrats and Republicans, failed to address the mounting debt problem: the last budget surplus was in 2001.

So there is more than a little skepticism that the Trump administration will be any different, especially as his first 4 years as a president did not do much on that topic.

स्रोत: DOGE

Still, one possibility is a massive wave of shrinking the federal government under the tutelage of Elon Musk’s DOGE audits:

“DOGE will provide advice and guidance from outside of Government, and will partner with the White House and Office of Management & Budget to drive large scale structural reform, and create an entrepreneurial approach to Government never seen before.”

Donald Trump

And of course, the radical firing of 80% of Twitter’s workforce to turn it into X.com was indeed spectacular.

DOGE द्वारा सुझाए गए सुधार could include:

• Medicare और Medicaid कार्यक्रमों में $100B की अनुचित भुगतान को कम करना।
• वॉशिंगटन डीसी में 90% कार्यालय स्थानों को हटाना।
• पेंटागन को “खोए हुए” $824B को “खोजने” के लिए मजबूर करना।
• 16 मिलियन शब्दों वाले कर कोड को मूल रूप से सरल बनाना।

संभावित कार्यवाही के मार्ग?

सुधार कठिन हैं

While radical, these propositions are nothing new and have been discussed by libertarian reformers for decades.

The real challenge is whether any of these will get approved by Congress and actually put into law and enforced.

This will likely be opposed very strongly by a wide array of influential forces, from federal employees and lobbyists, to Democrat & Republican governors and large corporations (including tech companies & defense contractors).

So, mounting debt may not be avoided easily, and inflation may not be tamed anytime soon.

न तो शानदार, न ही भयानक

At the same time, doomsday predictions have proven consistently wrong for decades and mostly enriched their writers and impoverished investors listening.

A more likely scenario is one of only partial reforms, that help but do not solve the problem, until a more serious crisis unfolds over many years, forcing more radical actions.

This is how the 1970s stagflation ended, with the Fed suddenly raising interest rates, a policy remembered as the “Volcker Shock”, named after the Fed chairman at the time, Paul Volcker.

उस महीने, फेड की ब्याज दर 13.7 प्रतिशत पर निर्धारित की गई थी; अप्रैल तक यह पूरी 4 अंक बढ़कर 17.6 प्रतिशत हो गई। 1981 में यह कभी-कभी 20 प्रतिशत के करीब पहुंची।

जब वोल्कर ने अगस्त 1987 में पद छोड़ दिया, तब मुद्रास्फीति अपने शिखर 9.8 प्रतिशत से घटकर 3.4 प्रतिशत हो गई थी।

Dylan Matthews on Vox

So overall, we can reasonably consider the possibility that inflation could bounce back higher, and interest rates to rise much higher to finally put inflation under control.

स्रोत: Trading Economics

मुद्रास्फीति के खिलाफ सुरक्षा

In any case, investors might want to become a little cautious when the largest economy in the world is considering radical policies and 1-2 trillion-dollar-worth of budget cuts.

On one hand, it could have a politically and socially destabilizing effect.

On the other hand, failing reforms and/or exogenous shocks could lead to an economic & inflation crisis similar to the 1970s stagflation.

स्रोत: MarketWatch

And of course, a context of international tensions at least as high as during the Cuban Missile Crisis is not helping either.

सोना: “बर्बर अवशेष”

Historically, the refuge for investors in times of debt, currency, and inflation crises was physical gold. As a “neutral” reserve currency, it was seen as a form of “cash” that was independent of policy failures by individual countries.

And recently, gold has been on a winning streak, reaching all-time highs in all currencies, reflecting a return to this role of pressure valve against crises.

स्रोत: Gold Price

This reflects not only American but also global perceptions of risks regarding energy, geopolitics, and economics, as Asian buyers have been a major influence on gold prices.

“पिछले दस वर्षों में सोने की उपभोक्ता मांग का लगभग तीन-चौथाई हिस्सा उभरते बाजारों से आया है।”

Mr. John Reade, Chief Market Strategist, World Gold Council.

Another major driver has been central banks, with here too, Asian countries at the forefront.

The largest one has been China, aggressively trying to spend its surplus dollars from trade into gold and infrastructure spending through the Belt and Road Initiative.

“According to the World Gold Council (WGC), central banks led by China purchased 1,037 tonnes (t) (metric tons) of gold in 2023, with the PBoC buying more gold than all other central banks combined. This buying intensity continued well into 2024.”

International Banker

डिजिटल सोना

What made gold (and to some extent silver) a good neutral reserve currency were a few key features:

• दुर्लभ और बड़े पैमाने पर उत्पादन के लिए भारी लागत के बिना कठिन।
• अत्यधिक टिकाऊ, अधिकांश अन्य धातुओं के विपरीत।
• व्यापार और भंडारण के लिए छोटे इकाइयों में विभाजित करना आसान।

Since the dawn of civilization, no other alternative managed to fit the bill as well as gold, leaving it uncontested as सबसे safe asset to own in times of crisis, from Ancient Egypt to the Modern Era.

This was until the emergence of cryptocurrency, especially Bitcoin.

Similarly to gold, Bitcoin prices have been skyrocketing this year.

स्रोत: Google Finance

Bitcoin proponents consider that it has all the advantages of gold, and some extras:

• यह न केवल दुर्लभ है, बल्कि दीर्घकाल में बिटकॉइन की कुल मात्रा कभी भी अधिकतम कुल मात्रा से अधिक नहीं होगी।
• ब्लॉकचेन तकनीक बिटकॉइन को “टिकाऊ” बनाती है, और लेज़र की अपरिवर्तनीयता के कारण इसे छेड़छाड़ के प्रति अधिक प्रतिरोधी बनाती है।
• इसकी डिजिटल प्रकृति लेनदेन को आसान बनाती है, साथ ही इसे अनंत रूप से विभाजित करना आसान है, जो सोने के लिए कुछ ग्राम के न्यूनतम से नीचे विभाजन कठिन है।

बढ़ती वैधता

For many years, what Bitcoin was missing was to be embraced by “big money”: large financial institutions (banks, insurance, pension funds, etc.), billionaires, and central banks.

This has progressively changed:

• बिटकॉइन का उपयोग ट्रेजरी रिज़र्व में डिजिटल एसेट सेक्टर के बाहर बढ़ रहा है(Tesla (TSLA ), Square, Meitu, etc.).
• बिटकॉइन ETFs क्रिप्टोकरेंसी में एक्सपोजर पाने का एक नया तरीका प्रदान करते हैं, with संस्थागत निवेशक अब US-ट्रेडेड स्पॉट बिटकॉइन ETFs के 20% के मालिक हैं.
• ट्रम्प स्पष्ट रूप से “बिटकॉइन राष्ट्रीय भंडार” पर विचार कर रहे हैं after making जुलाई 2024 में अपने अभियान के दौरान एक बनाने का वादा किया.

Even with the recent price rises, Bitcoin is still standing below 10% of the asset value of global gold reserves, with both much smaller than other asset classes.

स्रोत: MicroStrategy

So there is a reasonable case that if Bitcoin becomes a major store of value, it could not only rise due to inflation and a debt crisis, making money flow in defensive assets, but also grow quicker than gold, which was alone in that role historically.

निष्कर्ष

Nothing is certain when it comes to macroeconomics. But so far, the mix of persistent inflation and high US debt levels seems like a recipe for a redo of the 1970s stagflation.

The reaction of market participants to this looming risk is already visible in the strong rise in prices of both gold and Bitcoin.

Which of the two will ultimately outperform the other and prove the best protection against inflation is still debated. Gold has a solid historical track record against debt crises, while Bitcoin has done better returns than gold in the few years it has existed.

In any case, there is a place in most portfolios for inflation hedges and a balanced approach between risk-taking with equities and more defensive assets.