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Freeport-McMoRan: Bygger Kobberforsyningen for Fremtiden

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Kobber er vigtigere end nogensinde

Early on in human history, some people figured out that some special rocks contained metal and that this metal could be melted away and purified. Thanks to their lower melting points and the relatively easy detection of rich veins of ore, gold and copper were among the first metals to be refined.

I årtusinder var kobber og senere bronze (kobber + tin) de vigtigste metaller på Jorden. De udgjorde grundlaget for alle værktøjer og våben og skabte de første internationale handelsnetværk, med tin fra De Britiske Øer eller Centralasien, der nåede så langt som nutidens Egypten og Irak.

Kilde: Phys.org

Efter opfindelsen af jernsmeltning blev kobber et langt mindre strategisk metal, da det gradvist blev nedrykket til lavværdi‑mønter, smykker, tilbehør, tagdækning osv.

Dette var indtil den industrielle revolution og opdagelsen af elektricitet, da kobber er en fremragende elektrisk leder.

I dag er kobber mere efterspurgt end nogensinde før, i høj grad på grund af tendensen til elektrificering af alt: energiproduktion, transport, tung industri, opvarmning & køling osv.

Den årlige produktion af kobber udgjorde 23 millioner metriske tons i 2024. Det er sandsynligt, at mange af de største og lettest udnyttelige kobberforekomster allerede er fundet. Denne idé understøttes af det lave antal nye opdagelser i de senere år, på trods af kobbermines høje udforskningsbudget siden 2005.

I praksis er der ikke foretaget nogen betydningsfuld opdagelse af store kobberforekomster siden 2015.

Kobber var allerede på vej mod knaphed, og dette var før datacenterboommen og den accelererende overgang til el‑biler øgede efterspørgslen yderligere. Som følge heraf har priserne fulgt en stabil opadgående kurve siden 2025.

Kilde: LME

(Du kan læse mere om kobber og hvordan du investerer i det i vores investeringsrapport dedikeret til dette metal)

Stigende metalpriser gavner direkte de minearbejdere, der producerer det, gennem to mekanismer: en direkte stigning i fri pengestrøm og en øgning af værdien af metallet, der stadig ligger i jorden.

Når det gælder rene kobberinvesteringer, især med eksponering mod miner, der primært ligger i vestlige lande eller Amerika, kan få virksomheder måle sig med Freeport-McMoRan (FCX ), verdens tredjestørste kobberproducent.

FCX Prisdiagram

Freeport-McMoRan Oversigt

Freeport-McMoRan Historie

The current Freeport-McMoRan traces its origins to Freeport Sulphur Company, founded in Texas in 1912.

Senere, indtil 1950’erne, diversificerede virksomheden ved at købe miner, der producerede mangan, nikkel, aluminium og kalium.

I 1967 begyndte virksomheden at udvinde Grasberg‑kobber‑ og gulddepositet i Papua, Indonesien. Til dags dato er denne mine den største overjordiske kobberforekomst, der nogensinde er opdaget. Grasberg‑minen krævede omfattende civilingeniørarbejde for at starte produktionen, inklusiv en 101‑kilometer (63 mi) lang adgangsvej med kilometervise tunneler, en 109‑kilometer (68 mi) slurry‑rørledning og verdens længste enkeltspændte luftbane.

I 1981 fusionerede Freeport Minerals Company med McMoRan Oil and Gas Company, hvilket skabte en stor uafhængig olie‑ og gasproducent med interesser i landbrugsmineraler (svovl og fosforsyre) samt i guld, kobber, sølv og uran.

I 1988 blev Freeport-McMoRan delvist spundet af sit moderselskab (FTX) og blev endeligt fuldstændigt adskilt i 1994.

I slutningen af 1990’erne og 2000’erne gik virksomheden igennem en række komplekse opkøb og fusioner, først med investering fra Rio Tinto (RIO ) i 1995, derefter en fusion med Global Inc. I 1997 overtog den 2007 Phelps Dodge for at styrke sin position inden for kobber.

I 2010’erne solgte Freeport ikke‑kritiske aktiver for at hjælpe med at finansiere den videre udvikling af sine kobberaktiver og reducere sin gæld, især sin Eagle Ford‑skiferolie‑aktiv til Encana for $3,1 mia i 2014, samt sine dybhavs‑aktiver til Anadarko Petroleum i 2016.

I august 2017 indgik virksomheden en aftale om at give den indonesiske regering 51 % interesse i Grasberg‑minen og bygge et smelteværk i bytte for en særlig tilladelse til at drive minen indtil 2041 (mere om Grasberg nedenfor).

Overall, this complex corporate history led to the accumulation of one of the world’s best collections of copper and molybdenum mineral assets, which would be very difficult to replicate by a competitor.

Freeport-McMoRan Efter Tallene

Today, Freeport-McMoRan is the world’s largest producer of molybdenum, and #3 in global copper production, behind the mining super-giant BHP and the Chile state-owned Codelco, making it the largest copper-focused publicly traded stock (as BHP is more focused on iron, coal, and potash).

Besides copper and gold, the company is also the world’s top producer of molybdenum (a structural steel strengthening agent), which is also a by-product of copper extraction, especially at the US mines of Enderson and Climax (Colorado).

In total, the company operates 10 major copper mines, of which 7 are located in the USA. The company is structured around 157 subsidiary corporations spanning 16 countries for the control of regional mines, logistical hubs, and trade networks.

Kilde: Freeport-McMoRan

This makes Freeport-McMoRan not only the #1 US copper producer, but also responsible for approximately 60% of domestic production in 2025 and 70% of all its refined copper. The company is planning to grow that production significantly by +60% by 2030. This will lead to an estimated support for more than 100,000 U.S. jobs, along with a broad network of suppliers and local businesses.

 

Meanwhile, Freeport-McMoRan directly employs 29,000 employees, a 13% workforce expansion since 2022 to scale up heavy underground block-cave operations.

The company holds 158 patents primarily focused on metallurgical extraction, smelting safety, and vehicle logistics, including autonomous fleet logistics and hydrometallurgy leaching.

In 2025, Freeport-McMoRan sold 3.6 billion pounds of copper, as well as 1.1 million ounce of gold (as both metals tend to be found together in mineral resources), and expect to grow that production to 4.1 billion pound by 2028, even if 2026 should be a bit smaller due to upgrade of the Grasberg mine disrupting operations temporarily and collapse in September 8th, 2025 (“mud rush”).

Freeport-McMoRan Aktiver

Grassberg

Historically and still today, the flagship mining asset of Freeport-McMoRan, Grasberg, is first and foremost a geologically exceptional copper deposit, with mineral resources (proven and probable reserves) estimated at 30.8 billion pounds of copper, 26.3 million ounces of gold, and 121.3 million ounces of silver. It is located in Indonesia, in the  Mimika Regency, Central Papua region.

Kilde: Mining Doc

The first hints of the mineral resources in this remote region were detected by Dutch geologists in the 1930s, but serious efforts to exploit them only started in the 1960s, at the same time as the administration of Dutch New Guinea was transferred to newly independent Indonesia.

Today’s mine includes a large open pit mine 2.4 kilometers (1.5 mi) wide at the surface, completed in 2019, three operating underground mines (Grasberg Block Cave, Deep Mill Level Zone and Big Gossan), all feeding raw ore into four concentrators.

In 2018, the sale of a majority ownership of Grasberg to the state-owned mining company, PT Inalum, was effectively forced by the Indonesian government through regulatory pressure and resource nationalism, notably the ban on the export of unprocessed copper concentrates in 2017 and the refusal to grant a long-term operating extension of the mining license.

To resolve the stalemate and secure its operator status, Freeport accepted a significantly lower price per share than its partner Rio Tinto (which completely left the operation), valuing the asset below its initial projections, causing a temporary crash in the company stock price.

Today, Freeport-McMoRan holds a Special Mining Permit (IUPK) allowing it to remain the mine’s physical operator until 2041, with an agreement to transfer an additional 12% stake to the Indonesian government at zero cost to secure licensing past 2041.

The pressure from the Indonesian government was both a general intent of keeping more of the country’s natural resources’ profits in the country and a response to local opposition to the mine.

Currently, operations at Grasberg are powered by a coal-fired power station, which will be replaced in 2027 by a 265-megawatt liquefied natural gas-fired combined cycle gas turbine power plant.

Besides the upgrade to the energy supply, Grasberg operations are also recovering throughout 2026 from the 2025 Grasberg mud rush. A colossal 800,000 metric tons of wet material violently and unexpectedly breached the underground workings.

This massive rush was triggered when accumulated water and fine silt burst through a previously undetected hole at the base of the mine’s retired open pit. The catastrophe led to 7 casualties and slashed the mine output for 2026 by 50%.

As such, 2027 and later years are expected to be a steep increase from current production numbers, with 2028’s copper production double that of 2026’s (Grasberg recovery + other mines extension).

US Mines

While Grasberg is the largest and most emblematic asset of the company, Freeport-McMoRan also has a major presence on US soil.

The US operations of the company represent 1/3rd of the company’s production (excluding Grasberg disruptions), and about 60-70% of the USA’s copper production.

In the context of the US looking to secure the supply of critical minerals essential for the energy transition, military production, and the AI supply chain, this positions Freeport-McMoRan to become a key strategic supplier to the country.

Besides existing mine expansion, Freeport is also moving into exploiting the historical stockpiles of unexploited ore from the previous decade of mining. A new leaching method can help the company extract ore from these discarded piles of copper-containing rocks, with a potential for quickly growing run rate until 2030.

“By getting more out of what’s already mined, these efforts help strengthen domestic supply while improving efficiency and reducing waste. The approach supports more consistent output from existing operations as demand for copper continues to grow across the country.”

This could essentially generate a “free” new mine with 42 billion pounds of resources from the US mines, producing up to 800 million pounds per year, or an additional copper production equivalent to 1/4th of 2025’s.

Other Mines & Assets

Freeport-McMoRan operates two mines in South America: a copper-molybdenum mine in Peru (Cerro Verde), and a copper mine in Chile (El Abra).

Cerro Verde is producing annually 600 million pounds of copper and 15 million pounds of molybdenum, and El Abra is producing annually 500 million pounds of copper cathode.

In Indonesia, besides Grasberg, Freeport-McMoRan also has smelting and refining operations centered around the Java Integrated Industrial and Port Estate (JIIPE).

This includes the long-established joint venture facility where PT Freeport Indonesia owns a 66% stake and Japan’s Mitsubishi Materials owns 34%, with an annual output capacity of approximately 342,000 metric tons of copper cathode, and the Manyar mega-smelter, a $3.7B facility with an output of roughly 600,000 to 650,000 tons of copper cathode, as well as gold and silver.

Freeport-McMoRan’s Fremtid

Grøn Økonomi & AI

Under regulations like the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), automakers must source high percentages of their battery and critical powertrain minerals from the U.S. or its Free Trade Agreement (FTA) partners to qualify for consumer tax credits.

This put local copper suppliers like Freeport’s US operations in Arizona and New Mexico in a good position to become a preferred, regulatory-compliant supplier. In particular, the Bagdad mine expansion, heavily optimized with automation, could capture an estimated 25% of the U.S. EV copper market.

Similar domestic markets in grid, non-EV batteries, and AI data centers will also benefit the company.

Internationally, Indonesia’s copper will also fuel Southeast Asia’s growing EV ecosystem, especially with the new giant, state-of-the-art domestic smelters recently started in the country.

AI is also not just a new market but an operational advantage for Freeport-McMoRan, as it is already deploying Autonomous Haulage Systems (AHS) in partnership with Caterpillar.

Freeport-McMoRan Finansiel Trajektorie

While the current trajectory of copper prices and profitability of copper mines, especially US mines, seems rosy, investors in the mining sector need to always remember the sector is highly cyclical, with brutal downturns.

So in that respect, the policy of Freeport-McMoRan to keep debt below a $3-4 bn threshold is a net positive, especially compared to the debt-fueled acquisitions of the 2000s that were followed by a crash in commodity prices after 2008.

The company’s debt is also paced out so that most repayments are scheduled for after 2031, having let the company lock in low interest rates before the recent global rise in cost of capital and inflation.

Shareholders should expect a stable distribution policy, with around 50% of free cash flow dedicated to organic growth, and 50% to be returned to shareholders, in the form of 1/3rd as a base dividend (stable at $0.075/share since 2022), 1/3rd as variable dividends (also at $0.075/share since 2022), and 1/3rd from share repurchases.

Rentabilitet & Kobberpriser

As with most miners, the future price of its main commodity will have a massive impact on the success or failure of an investment in the company. This is one of the most difficult metrics to estimate.

What investors can factor into their risk models is the sensitivity of the company’s profitability to variation in copper prices and other inputs:

  • Every increase or decrease in copper price of $0.1/pound results in an extra or lower $300M in free cash flow.
  • An increase in diesel price of 10% results in a loss of %85M in free cash flow.
  • A strengthening by 10% of the US dollar compared to the Chilean peso, Indonesian rupiah, and Australian dollar results in an extra $1802M in free cash flow.

This still can make any forecast of Freeport’s upcoming EBITDA and free cash flow in the late 2020s difficult, especially with diesel prices potentially impacted by war with Iran or lower Russian exports, while such an energy crisis could also boost demand for copper for batteries and EVs, boosting copper prices in turn.

Projections of data center build-up and the associated energy consumption (and grid upgrades) are also likely to impact copper prices.

However, in the long run, Freeport has the advantage of being a massive copper producer with strong reserves and growing production, in a world that needs, in the next 1-2 decades, more copper than mankind has mined in its entire history.

So while some turbulence might happen in the short term (e.g., high diesel prices, AI buildup), the structural trends of electrification of heating (heat pumps), EVs, stationary battery energy storage, grid upgrades, etc., should keep copper demand hot and copper price elevated.

Seneste Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Aktieknyttigheder og Udviklinger

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Jonathan er en tidligere biokemisk forsker, der arbejdede med genetisk analyse og kliniske forsøg. Han er nu aktieanalytiker og finansskribent med fokus på innovation, markedscyklusser og geopolitik i sin publikation 'The Eurasian Century'.