Asla Batan Güneş – Reflect Orbital’ın Güneş Enerjisini Devrim Niteliğinde Değiştirme Büyük Planları

Güneş Yükselişi

Solar energy is becoming one of the world’s major power sources due to its natural abundance, “fuel-free” nature, and no carbon emission when operating (but some during production if the panels are not made with green energy).

Bu ilerlemenin başlıca nedeni, fotovoltaik teknolojilerdeki iyileşme ve güneş panellerinin hızla artan verimliliğidir. Ayrıca, çift taraflı paneller, perovskit, ince film kadmiyum tellürid veya kuantum noktalar gibi seçenekler, panelleri daha da geliştirmek için adaydır.

Kaynak: Clean Energy Review

Bu konuyu “Güneş Çağı – İnsanlığa Parlak Bir Gelecek” başlıklı yazımızda daha ayrıntılı olarak tartıştık. Verimliliğin artmasıyla paralel olarak üretim maliyetleri de keskin bir şekilde düştü ve güneşi fosil yakıtlara karşı rekabetçi hâle getirmek için mükemmel bir ortam oluştu.

Kaynak: News Channel 3

Yine de, güneş enerjisinin önemli bir zayıflığı var. Gece enerji üretemez. Ya da bulutlu günlerde çok az üretir.

Bu, güneş enerjisinin insanlığın ana enerji kaynağı olarak ancak bu sorunu hafifletecek çözümlerle birlikte çalışabileceği anlamına geliyor.

Şu anda düşünülen iki ana seçenek, akşam ve güneşsiz günler için enerjiyi depolayan devasa batarya paketleri ve güneşli bölgelerden enerji taşıyan uzun mesafe güç iletim hatlarıdır.

Sorun, her iki seçeneğin de oldukça maliyetli ve kaynak yoğun olmasıdır.

Bu yüzden başka bir olasılık tartışılıyor: Güneş enerjisinin, hava koşullarından hiç etkilenmeyen ve 7/24 parladığı yerde, doğrudan Dünya yörüngesinden yakalanması.

Orbital Güneş

What makes today and in the near future space solar concepts potentially viable is the crash in costs to launch material into orbit. This was mostly driven by the invention of reusable rockets by Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX ), which has divided cost by 10x already and might do so again in the near future.

Kaynak: Ark Invest

Güç Uyduları

For a long time, the main strategy envisioned was to install photovoltaic panels in large arrays of satellites and beam back power to the surface with microwaves (which are not absorbed by clouds).

Kaynak: ESA – European Space Agency

The issue with that strategy is that it is rather complex compared to ground-based solar:

• Yer tabanlı: collect sunlight -> convert DC to AC -> send power into the grid.
• Uzay tabanlı: collect sunlight -> convert microwaves -> convert microwave back to electricity -> convert DC to AC -> send power into the grid.

These many more steps require more equipment and, therefore, more weight to send into orbit. It also means that some energy is lost at every conversion step between sunlight, power, and microwaves.

So, while the sunlight is stronger and uninterrupted in orbit, the additional loss and equipment cost might make orbital solar not that much cheaper than ground-based one, even if it is more reliable.

Güneşi Satmak mı?

Another approach is being considered by a startup called Reflect Orbital.

The idea is to skip the step of bringing solar panels and microwave transmitters into orbit. And instead, just put into orbit a giant mirror reflecting the sunlight down to Earth.

Kaynak: Reflect Orbital

Such a method was already tested by the Russian space program in 1990, so we know it works technically. Short funding in post-Soviet Union Russia, still expensive solar farms, and the cost of orbital launch back then made it not commercially viable at the time.

This concept has a few key advantages against “traditional” orbital solar designs:

• Power satellites will necessarily degrade over time. And contrary to solar panels on Earth, there is for now no realistic path to recycling, meaning that expensive and complex machinery are fully wasted at the end of their useful life.
• Space mirrors can be made of simple, thin metallic foil, which is way lighter than photovoltaic solar panels. This would reduce the launch costs drastically.

The way it would work in practice is that Reflect Orbital would “sell sunlight” to ground-based solar farms so they can keep producing after dark when electricity prices are the highest.

The company has already done a demo of the concept using a hot air balloon, partially as a marketing move to illustrate the concept more than a true prototype, which would require an actual satellite in orbit.

Ne Kadar Ciddi?

Takım

The Co-Founder and CEO of the company is Ben Novak. As a college freshman, he led SpaceX projects validating Crew Dragon propulsion components and worked again at SpaceX later on.

The CTO is Tristan Semmelhack, who was the youngest engineer at Zipline, the world’s leading drone delivery company.

Maybe more crucial for the potential success of the future prototype is Robert Salazar, the Heliostat Design Engineer. He worked on the design of the Starshade’s Optical Shield at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory; Robert went on to design ultralight deployable heliostats for the Transformers for Lunar Extreme Environments project.

Kaynak: NASA

So, overall, the team seems to have some serious technical credentials when it comes to space projects and space mirrors. This is not just a marketing team with a crazy idea.

And we can assume Novak’s experience at SpaceX could help secure access to the company launchers in the future.

Teknik Uygulanabilirlik

As we said before, this technology was already tested in the 1990s, so we know it can work. It can reuse a lot of research done over the years about solar sails, inflatable antennas, and origami folding for maximizing the efficiency of the launch of solar panels and reflective foil.

In general, making ultra-light reflective surfaces for space is relatively easy, at least as far as space equipment can ever be called easy. From the ground, the reflectors would look like “mini-suns.”

Kaynak: University Of Glasgow

In a study from 2022 titled “Enhancing solar energy generation and usage: Orbiting solar reflectors as an alternative to energy storage,” the reflectors were assumed to be made of a constellation of thirty 1-km diameter sized reflectors, with each reflector having a 20-year lifetime and weighing approximately 7860 kg.

The procurement cost would be $375/kg, or $3M per reflector and $90M for the whole constellation. This would be enough to generate additional illumination worth 100 MWh in power generation.

Ekonomik Yaşanabilirlik

In the same study, the scientists then used a launch cost of $1400 per kg or the cost for the Falcon Heavy satellite launch in 2018. It is worth noting that by 2023, this launch cost has already fallen below the $1,000 threshold, and that is before the arrival of SpaceX Starship, which is much larger and, in theory, much cheaper as well.

In this analysis, the researchers calculate that in the current conditions, the project would not manage to generate money. They even calculated the launch costs required for orbital mirrors to reach breakeven in different market conditions:

Market condition 1 has relatively stable prices of electricity throughout the day, with India used as an example. In this case, launch costs for breakeven have to be $257/kg.

Kaynak: Applied Energy (LC = Launch Cost, PC =  Procurement Cost)

Market condition 2 has extreme price variation between moments of the day, with California used as an example. In this case, launch costs for breakeven need to be “only” $558/kg.

Kaynak: Applied Energy (LC = Launch Cost, PC =  Procurement Cost)

Potansiyel Uygulamalar

İlk Pazarlama Gösterimi

The company is discussing on its webpage the potential to “reserve a spot of light” for 4 min over 5 km, with limited availability starting in Q4 2025.

This would be achieved with satellites that will weigh only 35 pounds (16 kilograms) each and will be fitted with Mylar mirrors 33 feet by 33 feet (9.9 by 9.9 meters) in size that deploy in orbit.

In most cases, it would anyway be more of a demonstration and promotional tool than one targeting power generation, with a strong case that such an application could indeed go viral, with the possibility to ask for sunlight at night at the click of a smartphone app.

Güneş Enerjisi Üretimi

The first and most obvious application would be sending light to large-scale solar farms, especially in the electricity market with very high power peak prices in the evening. Any space solar company will need to carefully select its market while keeping in mind the growing competition for constantly cheaper battery packs.

Another practical consideration will be choosing the right orbit, with as many customers as possible on the way of the satellites and their possible target for reflection.

Another possible use case would be to increase the solar intensity hitting solar farms in Nordic latitudes. For example, solar farms in Canada or Scandinavia could benefit from extra light to reach their maximum capacity, especially in winter when power demand is high and the sun’s intensity is at its lowest.

Yapay Şehir Işığı

Another consideration could be providing city light to large urban centers.

However, this might just not really be competitive with simpler-to-operate light poles with integrated solar cells and batteries.

Tarım

Another activity that requires light is farming through plant photosynthesis. Orbital lighting could maybe provide extra light for large-scale farming operations that currently use LED lights in their greenhouses.

This would only work for the largest farms but could make sense for some regions with massive greenhouse installations, like, for example, the Netherlands or the South of Spain.

Another option could be to illuminate Nordic regions in winter, where the growth season is very short. This might also be, in general, an option for the satellite to sell the reflected light in areas without sufficient demand from solar farms.

Orbital Aynaların Sınırlamaları

Beyond just technical and economic considerations, orbital mirrors also have their critics.

One problem they could cause is even more light pollution that we experience today. Especially if it becomes a mass-adopted solution to handle peak electricity consumption all over the world. In the long run, this could make ground-based astronomy entirely impossible.

Another potential issue is the disturbance of natural ecosystems. We already know that light pollution from city lights can disturb nocturnal animals, migratory patterns, and insect populations. So, Reflect Orbital space mirrors could potentially make it worse.

Güneş Enerjisine Yatırım

Solar energy production is constantly growing at a double-digit rate and will be a key driver to decarbonize the economy. It has still also a very long way to go, with the immense majority of our global electricity production and even more total energy coming from fossil fuels.

Over the years, it is a sector that has evolved to reward the largest companies, with economies of scale a key factor in managing to generate profit in a very competitive environment. With of course new technologies a potential disrupter of established polysilicon panel manufacturers.

Solar mirrors could also make solar even more attractive by not only solving the issue of peak prices in the evenings but also improving the production of existing solar parks, making them more profitable by increasing the number of hours where they produce.

You can invest in solar companies through many brokers, and you can find here, on securities.io, our recommendations for the best brokers in the USA, Canada, Australia, the UK, as well as many other countries.

If you are not interested in picking specific solar companies, you can also look into ETFs like Global X Solar ETF (RAYS), Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), or Global X China Clean Energy ETF (2809.HK) which will provide a more diversified exposure to capitalize on the solar and clean energy industry.

You can also read our article about the “Top 10 Solar Power Stocks to Invest In”.

Güneş ve Uzay Şirketleri

1. Rocket Lab

Rocket Lab (RKLB ), yeniden kullanılabilir roket pazarında en ciddi rakiplerden biridir. Şirket başlangıçta küçük roketlere odaklandı; Electron fırlatma sistemi (320 kg yük) kademeli olarak kısmen yeniden kullanılabilir bir roket haline getiriliyor. Şu ana kadar Electron, 44 fırlatmada 177 uydu yerleştirdi.

Daha sonra, Rocket Lab, Falcon 9’a (tamamen yeniden kullanılabilir modda LEO’ye 8.000 kg, Mars veya Venüs’e 1.500 kg) benzer orta ölçekli bir yeniden kullanılabilir roket olan Neutron’u geliştirmeyi planlıyor. Neutron, Starship gibi metan yakan bir roket motoru ile güçlenecek; bu, bir sonraki nesil roketler için bir trend haline geliyor gibi görünüyor.

Şirket, tamamen dikey entegre uydu üretim süreciyle dikkat çekiyor; bu sayede maliyetleri ve tasarım hızını optimize edebiliyor. Bu, NASA ve ABD hükümetiyle bir dizi sözleşmeye yol açtı; bunlar arasında $515M’lık bir askeri uydu sözleşmesi ve Globalstar için $143M’lık bir sivil sözleşme bulunuyor.

Rocket Lab, 2022’de SolAero Technologies’i satın almasının ardından uydu güneş panellerinin büyük bir üreticisi haline geldi; bu panellerle 1000’den fazla uydu güçlendirildi ve toplamda 4MW güneş hücresi üretildi.

Kaynak: Rocket Lab

Şu an için fırlatma sistemi dış tedarikçilere bağımlı, ancak bir dizi stratejik satın alma bunu değiştirecek; fırlatma sisteminde, uydu tasarımı ve üretiminde zaten sağlanan dikey entegrasyonu tekrarlayacak.

Şirket ayrıca, düzenli gelir elde etmek için bir telekom LEO takımyıldızı oluşturma olasılığını araştırıyor. Ayrıca Varda Space Industries ile uzay içinde üretim ve orbital enkaz incelemesi konularında araştırmaya katkıda bulunuyor.

SpaceX, Elon Musk’ın iş yeteneğiyle teknolojisini sıfırdan geliştirdiği sırada, Rocket Lab gerekli teknolojiyi dikey entegre etmek için Ar-Ge ve satın alımları birleştirdi. Bu, uydu üretiminde çok başarılı oldu ve şimdi bu stratejiyi yeniden kullanılabilir roketler için tekrarlamayı hedefliyor.

Uydu üretiminden elde edilen mevcut nakit akışı ve Electron başarıları göz önüne alındığında, Rocket Lab, birkaç on yıl içinde kütle sürücüleri ve diğer altyapılar inşa edilene kadar SpaceX’e yetişebilecek iyi bir adaydır.

2. JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd.

Jinko, dünyadaki en büyük güneş paneli üreticilerinden biri ve ağırlıklı olarak Çin’de konumlanmıştır. Tarifelerden kaçınmak için şirket, üretim tabanını çeşitlendiriyor; Vietnam’da silikon wafer üretimi ve Malezya ile ABD’de güneş hücresi üretimi yapıyor.

Kaynak: Jinko Solar

Her ne olursa olsun, şirket Batı pazarlarına aşırı derecede maruz kalmamaktadır; iş hacminin büyük kısmı Çin, Asya Pasifik (APAC) ve gelişmekte olan pazarlardan oluşmaktadır.

Kaynak: Jinko Solar

Jinko, şirket tarihindeki 230 GW güneş hücresi ve 2024’ün ilk çeyreğinde 20 GW teslim etti; bu, bir yıl önceki 14,5 GW’dan artış.

Bu, Jinko’yu fotovoltaik endüstride #1 yapıyor.

Jinko’nun en gelişmiş güneş hücresi, N-tipi, olağanüstü %25,8 enerji verimliliği sağlıyor. Ayrıca çift taraflı paneller sunuyor.

2023’te N-tipi, Jinko’nun satışlarının büyük çoğunluğunu (%80) oluşturdu; 2024 sonuna kadar tam kapasiteye ulaşması beklenen 56 GW üretim tesisi, yıl sonuna kadar teslimatın %90’ını karşılayacak.

Toplam üretim kapasitesinin 120-130 GW’ye ulaşması ve şirketin tüm tarihindeki birikmiş üretimin neredeyse yarısını oluşturması bekleniyor.

Ürün profilini yeşilleştirmeyi hedefleyen Jinko Solar, tamamen yenilenebilir enerjiyle (Çin’de yaygın olarak kullanılan kömür yerine) üretilen ilk N-tipi güneş paneli NeoGreen’i de piyasaya sürdü.

Jinko’nun üretim kapasitesindeki ultra agresif büyümesi, şirketin N-tipi teknolojisine olan güvenini ve Asya, Afrika ve Güney Amerika ihracat pazarlarını ele geçirme hırsını yansıtıyor.

Ve güneş enerjisinin, belki de güneş aynalarını da içerecek şekilde, dünya enerji sistemlerini ele geçirme olasılığı, kârlılığı daha da artırıyor.