2023 की नवीकरणीय ऊर्जा गिरावट

पिछले कुछ महीनों में नवीकरणीय ऊर्जा में निवेशकों ने काफी कठिन समय का सामना किया है। शेयर कीमतों में गिरावट, समुद्री पवन नीलामी रद्द होना, और मूल्यह्रास ने एक निराशाजनक माहौल पैदा किया है।

तो क्या हुआ? और क्यों? और आगे स्थिति कहाँ जा सकती है?

एक कठोर सुधार

The largest clean energy ETF, QCLN, has suffered an almost 50% decline since its peak in 2021.

QCLN मूल्य चार्ट

This correction is even more brutal in some sub-sectors of the clean energy industry, with the situation especially painful for the wind industry. For example, the leading offshore wind operator Orsted (D2G.DE ) stock (DNNGY) is now priced below its 2017 IPO level (excluding dividends). The largest wind turbine manufacturer, Vestas (VWDRY), is back to its 2008 price level (excluding dividends).

यह कई निवेशकों को चकित कर गया, क्योंकि नवीकरणीय ऊर्जा ऊर्जा मिश्रण में बड़ा हिस्सा बन रही है और व्यापक रूप से ऊर्जा प्रणालियों के भविष्य के रूप में देखी जा रही है।

कारणों का संगम

तूफ़ानी हवाएँ

The first problem in the renewable energy sector started with a profit warning from Siemens Energy (ENR.SW ) (ENR.DE ) in जून 2023. Quality problems in its Gamesa branch meant that some turbine engines would need to be replaced much sooner than expected, hurting the company’s profits. इससे शेयर कीमत में अचानक 36% की गिरावट आई.

The bad news kept piling up whenOrsted ने अपने अमेरिकी प्रोजेक्ट्स में समस्याओं की चेतावनी दी in अगस्त 2023, with some maybe having to be canceled entirely.

This created a wave of concern in the industry, with many offshore auctions for wind projects meeting little enthusiasm or भारी तौर पर विफल हो गईं, जैसे कि यूके में सितंबर 2023 में.

मुद्रास्फीति

Besides technological issues at Siemens, inflation is the root cause of the sudden wave of troubles in the wind industry.

Projects calculated a few years ago are now facing increasing costs on labor and equipment, as well as supply chain damage by the pandemic. So, what made sense economically in 2020 or 2021 might not make sense anymore in 2023.

ब्याज दर में वृद्धि

Compounding on the inflation issue, central banks all over the world have raised interest rates to put inflation under control. This surprised market participants and industrial companies, after 3 decades of declining rates, marked only by temporary and short-lived spikes.

स्रोत: Chartstorm

इसका मतलब है कि नवीकरणीय ऊर्जा जैसी बड़े पूंजी-गहन प्रोजेक्ट अब पिछले दशक की तुलना में बहुत अधिक वित्तीय लागतों का सामना कर रहे हैं।

This can also hurt companies that need to refinance their debt load, a common situation for fast-growing renewable companies.  As a result, जुलाई से सितंबर 2023 तक क्लीन एनर्जी ETFs से पूंजी का रिकॉर्ड निकास देखा गया.

This is a more generalized problem affecting the energy sector, including solar farms, utilities, and solar panel manufacturers.

ग्रिड संतृप्ति और भंडारण

While the previous factors are mostly out of the control of the industry, one additional growing issue is starting to hurt renewable energy. Power grids have been designed around fossil fuel-based power generation (and hydro + nuclear power). This means that the intermittency of renewables can become a growing issue in the larger part of the grid they represent.

This is supposed to be mitigated by utility-scale energy storage. The problem is that investments in this sector have lagged behind, resulting in occasional renewable energy waste. Similarly, in periods of low wind or sun intensity, the lack of energy storage capacity forces grid operators to fall back on fossil fuels like gas or coal.

This is getting corrected, with a +75% storage capacity growth between 2021 and 2022. But this might take a few years to catch up and weigh on the renewable sector as a whole until it is solved.

स्रोत: IEA

अब क्या?

चिंताओं की दीवार

Some issues are temporary but serious in the short term.  The durability of older models of wind turbines might not be as good as initially forecasted. This is for sure true for the Siemens Gamesa turbines, but this is now a concern for the rest of the industry as well.

Grid saturation and the mismatch between demand and production of electricity is likely to stay for a few years until energy storage has caught up with the renewable revolution. This might have different effects for different sub-sectors:

• हरित उपयोगिताएँ उत्पादन को कम करने या ऊर्जा भंडारण में अधिक निवेश करने के कारण कुछ वर्षों तक लाभ में गिरावट देख सकती हैं।
• पवन टरबाइन और सौर पैनल निर्माताओं को अपने लक्षित बाजार में रणनीतिक होना चाहिए।
• ऊर्जा भंडारण कंपनियाँ, चाहे ऑपरेटर हों या निर्माता, अभूतपूर्व बूम का अनुभव कर सकती हैं।

None of these problems are unsolvable, but they will not be solved overnight either.

लंबे समय तक उच्च लागत

The important thing to consider is that energy generation of any kind is a capital-intensive industry. This is true for renewable, as well as for fossil fuels or nuclear.

So it is likely that growing power generation will be more costly from now on, no matter the technology used. At least, as long as inflation and higher interest rates are the new normal.

Other investing sectors were also damaged by this macroeconomic environment; for example, पूरा US उपयोगिता सेक्टर अक्टूबर 2023 में 3.5 साल के न्यूनतम स्तर तक गिर गया. Even “safe” investment vehicles like US bonds “इतिहास में सबसे तीव्र गिरावट” according to Bank of America (BAC ).

This is true in the fossil fuel industry as well. Shale oil is not growing much in its production, preferring to keep a close eye on rising costs and favoring returning capital to shareholders. There are now just 504 operating rigs in the US, compared to 1,609 in 2014 at the peak of the shale boom.

The higher costs are likely to last, as more expensive energy (of all kinds) will likely contribute to keeping inflation high. Other factors like geopolitical chaos (as sadly illustrated by the wars in Ukraine and now Israel), deglobalization, and unionization will also be contributing to keeping inflation higher for longer.

चल रही तकनीकी प्रगति

The renewable revolution was made possible thanks to continuous solar and wind technology progress. This has caused a collapse of renewable energies’ costs, making them competitive with fossil fuels and nuclear, with solar costs down 90% in 10 years.

Now, this trend of declining costs, thanks to technology, is compensated by rising costs due to inflation. But this does not mean renewable technologies have stopped progressing.

For example, the most innovative companies with cheaper or more efficient solar panels, like First Solar (FSLR ) (FSLR), could be among the big winners in the sector in the long term.

FSLR मूल्य चार्ट

It is also possible that other technologies make a comeback, like nuclear, thanks to innovative Small Modular Reactors (SMR), something we discussed in our articles “Top 5 Nuclear Stocks To Invest In (अक्टूबर 2023)” and “The Nuclear Debate: A Power Solution for the Future or a High-Stakes Gamble?”.

So investors should stay optimistic over technological progress and count on a new round of innovation to durably make renewables (and maybe nuclear) the dominant, low-carbon solutions for energy generation in the future.

The increasing push of electrification for heating, transportation, and industrial demand currently covered by fossil fuels should also guarantee a constantly growing demand for power generation for decades.