Uptober 2025: Can Bitcoin’s Bullish October Streak Continue?

September is behind us, and now we are looking ahead to a period that has been the most bullish one for Bitcoin (BTC +0.36%) and the broader crypto market.

What’s ahead is ‘Uptober’. The term combines the words “up” and “October” and is used to describe the month in which Bitcoin and altcoins experience a surge in price. 

Historically, 10 out of 12 times since 2013, Bitcoin has had a green October with an average performance of 20.24%. Already, Bitcoin has kick-started October on a really bullish note, with the BTC price surging past $118,000.

This positive start (+2.82%) of the Q4 follows a 6.31% positive performance in Q3. Prior to that, Bitcoin posted strong 29.7% returns in Q2, which came after a -11.82% performance in Q1 of this year, according to data from CoinGlass.

Interestingly, while Bitcoin price had a rough time these past few weeks, it still ended last month with an upside of 5.16%, which makes it the 3rd best ever September in the history of the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

Last year, Bitcoin had a record September with almost 7.3% returns, which is followed by 2016’s 6.04% positive performance. With September closing in positive territory, the green month has created a powerful setup for more gains ahead.

In fact, whenever Bitcoin closed a green monthly candle in September, as it did in 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, the last quarter of the year generated impressive returns, an average of over 53% actually. And in Q4, October tends to serve as an ignition point for prices to rally higher.

Why October Favors Bitcoin?

We are now off to the historically bullish month. With a 60.8% increase in BTC value, 2013 gave us the best October, while the worst was a decline of 12.95% during the bear market in the following year (2014). Interestingly, the only other red month was during the 2018 bear market, when the digital asset posted a negative 3.83% performance.

In post-halving years, seasonality leads Bitcoin to then extend its gains into November, which may also continue in December in certain years as the supply crunch narrative and capital inflow push BTC higher. 

While history doesn’t repeat itself, it often rhymes, and a similar bullish pattern this time can see Bitcoin surging past the $124K peak to hit new highs around $150,000 and possibly even $170,000.

But why does Bitcoin perform so well in October? Well, there are generally a number of possible reasons. For one, October marks the end of the third quarter of the year, which means that financial institutions, corporations, and crypto companies are done with any rebalancing of portfolios that they do at the end of each quarter. 

With selling done, investors start buying before the next rebalancing in December, which tends to see tax harvesting that involves selling poor investments to offset capital gains earned from selling other investments at a profit and reducing the tax burden.

Not to mention, Bitcoin has experienced a sell-off in recent weeks, falling under $110K in the beginning as well as the end of September. A correction tends to wipe out excess leverage and lead to a healthier uptrend.

Besides seasonality, the end of summer lull supports ‘Uptober.’ In general, the narrative surrounding ‘Uptober’ also drives investor decisions. 

Many traders and investors buy in anticipation of the upcoming ‘Uptober’, which creates a self-fulfilling cycle of positive momentum. The collective belief in historically strong October performance leads to increased demand, pushing prices higher before any fundamental catalysts could even emerge. 

But there is no guarantee of this happening. In fact, with speculative behavior amplifying market volatility, the enthusiasm around ‘Uptober’ can also turn into fear if the expected gains fail to materialize.

But we are not devoid of catalysts this time, so, now, let’s take a look at those drivers that can help ‘Uptober’ realize. 

Market Resets & Forms Bottom for a Liftoff

It was only less than two months ago that Bitcoin had made an all-time high (ATH) above $124,000. Since then, the crypto asset has seen a lot of volatility, going as low as $107,500. 

Last week, this came amidst a wave of massive liquidations and selling pressure. But that wasn’t really bad for the digital asset.

As Swissblock noted, the recent flush has cleared “excess leverage and reset the market back to cost basis,” and “This is how bottoms are built.”

The proprietary crypto-focused algorithmic trading took to X earlier on Wednesday to share its market views, noting that, unlike in true bear markets, where liquidity collapses, currently liquidity remains strong. Liquidity actually held up while network growth dipped slightly, a setup that also occurred last October “right before the big rally into November,” it added.

“BTC is oversold vs its long-term mean, echoing past cycle bottoms. With liquidity steady and fundamentals intact, this looks like a bottoming reset, not a trend reversal.”

– Swissblock

With prices bouncing on the first day of the green month, it certainly looks like Bitcoin might have bottomed.

But despite this week’s positive price action, some Bitcoin traders are still expecting more downside before the asset rushes higher.

“I think we are due for a larger correction soon, to take out the $98k weekly liquidity level. That said, there may be a short term long set up that precedes that correction. Overall I think we head higher in Q4 so an early dump is a buying opp.”

– Trader Mayne

For the crypto king, strong resistance above is present at $120K, which it needs to break to reach new highs, which may be coming sooner than later.

If we take a look on-chain, it presents a bullish outlook for the world’s largest crypto asset with a market cap of $2.3 trillion.

The Coinbase premium index is showing consistent Bitcoin accumulation by US investors, with data showing buying activity during the third quarter. This kind of spot demand hasn’t been seen since early July, when it pushed the price from $105K to past $123K in less than two weeks.

Then there’s Spot Taker Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) on a 90-day basis, which tracks the cumulative difference between market buy and sell volumes. It recently turned positive, suggesting buying activity exceeding selling activity.

Macro Tailwinds: Rates, Dollar & Gold

As of writing, BTC/USD has been trading at $117,500, up 23% year-to-date (YTD) and 87.8% in the past year but down 5.4% from its peak.

While some fear that Bitcoin prices have peaked this cycle, many are still expecting new highs ahead, pointing to gold’s massive performance. While BTC has been stuck this past couple of months, gold and stocks have been raging on, making new ATHs repeatedly.   

The traditional safe haven is currently trading at a fresh peak of $3,895 per ounce. 

Bitcoin is expected to follow gold once the bullion takes a breather. Also, digital gold’s follow-up gains would be much greater as Bitcoin tends to outperform gold’s percentage returns by as much as ten times.

The “bull market in bitcoin has not started yet,” said Dan Tapiero, CEO of 50TFunds, pointing out a “massive cup and handle” pattern in BTC/XAU.

The precious metal is benefiting from consistent central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, and a weak US dollar. The USD index is currently trading at 97.7, down from the 110 high at the beginning of the year and the multi-year high of nearly 115 that DXY hit in September 2022.

The greenback, struggling to claim the 98.5 level, reflects weaker confidence in the country’s fiscal situation. With the USD becoming weaker than other currencies, this tends to make imports expensive, in turn, slowing down consumption. 

The weakness in the job market data also adds to the growing concerns. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics recently reported job openings close to reaching the lowest level in five years. Meanwhile, federal unemployment insurance claims are about double what they were last year.

Despite the uncertainty, the US stock market continues to show resilience, surging to new highs, as traders anticipate further interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.

Last month, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to the 4%-4.25% range and signalled two more before the end of the year. Additional liquidity injections are also expected as total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet stabilized last month after declining for thirty straight months. A potential reversal can support risk-on markets like stocks and crypto.

But with the US government shut down, traders may have to wait a while for lower rates.

On Wednesday, the government shut down its operations after Congress and the White House couldn’t reach a funding deal.

What this means is that big events, such as payrolls, that are to be released this week may not happen. The data would come out eventually, but in the meantime, the delay can cause some volatility. 

As Deutsche Bank Head of Macro and Thematic Research, John Reid wrote in a note:

“Back in October 2013, the shutdown meant we didn’t get the September jobs report until the 22nd of the month.”

So, how will the market react to this? Well, volatility should be expected. The last time crypto markets witnessed a government shutdown was twelve years ago. Bitcoin’s first government shutdown lasted for 16 days, during which its price spiked 14%. But those were Bitcoin’s early days when it was trading around $150 per coin. Since then, the market has significantly matured. 

The most recent shutdown Bitcoin weathered was during the bear market. This longest shutdown stretched 35 days, from Dec. 22, 2018, to Jan. 25, 2019, during which BTC price dropped 6%. 

That was, however, the end of the cycle, unlike this time around, when the digital asset is capturing significant institutional demand.

Bitcoin Supply Absorption at Record Pace

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The Fed’s pivot to easing with rate cuts is a big tailwind for Bitcoin prices. But there’s an even bigger one dictating the direction of the digital asset. And that’s institutional inflow.

U.S. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been driving Bitcoin movement this cycle, constantly absorbing supply with tens of millions of dollars in daily flows.

In Q3, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $7.8 billion in inflows, which puts its YTD flows to $21.5bln. Since inception, they have captured a whopping $57 billion.

All this activity has been a boon for issuers like BlackRock, which generated $260 million in revenue from its ETF offerings in the last two years. This includes $42 mln from Ethereum ETFs and $218 mln from Bitcoin.

Now, in September alone, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs totalled over $240 million. 

In just the last two days of the last month, meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $947.9 million in ETFs. It wasn’t just Bitcoin, though; Ethereum  (ETH +0.39%) ETFs also attracted strong flows, recording $674.4 million in inflows. These inflows helped Ether price spike to $4,330, which posted a red September by 5.71% but is now positive by 4.48% in October. ETH is currently off 12.5% from its $4,946 ATH made over a month ago.  

The strong institutional capital flow into ETFs shows clear demand for Bitcoin as well as Ethereum.

Cumulative inflows of global crypto investment products also “remain substantial” despite recent outflows. Month-to-date inflows are at $4 billion and year-to-date inflows are at $39.6 billion, “maintaining momentum to potentially match last year’s record of $48.6 billion,” wrote CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill in a report last week. 

He specifically noted Solana (SOL +5.32%) and XRP (XRP +3.65%) funds being outliers, which could be in expectation of upcoming U.S. ETF launches.

Notably, Vanguard Group is currently considering whether it should allow trading of crypto ETFs on its platform. With Vanguard having over 50 million investors with about $11 trillion in assets, a positive decision can bring a new wave of capital infusion.

Besides ETFs, Bitcoin is also seeing a lot of buying activity from public companies. Among those, Strategy (MSTR +5.03%), Metaplanet (MTPLF), and MARA Holdings (MARA +1.92%) represent the biggest Bitcoin accumulators.

Japanese Bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet recently acquired 5,268 BTC for 91.6 billion Japanese yen ($623 million), which has pushed its total holdings to 30,823 BTC and made it the world’s fourth-largest publicly traded bitcoin treasury company behind Strategy, MARA Holdings, and XXI. 

A total of 180 public companies have adopted a Bitcoin acquisition model. 

Strategy also reported acquiring an additional 196 BTC for about $22.1 million at an average price of $113,048 per BTC between Sept. 22 and Sept. 28, which brings the company’s total holdings to 640,031 BTC (worth $74.5 billion). The latest purchase was funded by the proceeds of the sale of MSTR, STRF, and STRD.

All this buying while Bitcoin’s fixed supply is capped at 21 million suggests a potential supply shock that can push BTC into fresh price discovery.

Altcoin Outlook & Sector Catalysts in Uptober

If we look at the broader market, it is Bitcoin that dictates the direction for the cryptocurrency industry at large. So, if BTC manages to do well, then altcoins can be expected to enjoy positive momentum as well, although, so far, only a handful of altcoins have been experiencing an outsized performance. 

This cycle hasn’t been good for most altcoins. It’s a possibility that they rally like crazy towards the end of the cycle, but that’s to be seen.

For now, Bitcoin’s latest price action has sent the total crypto market capitalization past $4.12 trillion as altcoins also pumped. In the past 24 hours, privacy coin Zcash (ZEC -0.86%) jumped the most by 38.5% to $91.55.

PUMP and PENGU (PENGU +0.9%) are two other double-digit gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies during this period. 

Now, let’s take a look at promising developments lined up for many coins and different sectors that could spark a rally.

According to Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the SEC approval of several new spot crypto ETFs is a given now that the agency has approved generic listing standards, thus removing the need for individual 19b-4 forms and their associated deadlines.

“Honestly, the odds are really 100% now,” Balchunas said on X.

The SEC deadlines for the approval of Solana, XRP, and Litecoin ETFs from various issuers are all in October. A Solana ETF can actually “come any day. Be ready,” he added. 

Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, VanEck, CoinShares, Grayscale, Bitwise, and Canary Capital have updated their respective S-1 filings for proposed Solana ETFs to clarify details around their staking activity. 

When it comes to DeFi, it has been experiencing a spike in activity with total value locked (TVL) reaching $162 bln, close to hitting the November 2021 high of $175 billion.

According to DeFi lender Aave’s founder and CEO, Stani Kulechov, Fed rate cuts could help the sector thrive. “I think every single rate cut by a central bank, whether it’s by the Fed or ECB … is basically additional arbitrage for these DeFi yields,” he said at Singapore’s Token2049 event this week. “As rates are gonna go down, we’re gonna see a really good bull market for DeFi yield.”

Over the past few years, an “amazing DeFi infrastructure” has been built, and now it can be “embedded into the broader financial and fintech system and distribute yields,” he added.

Crypto data provider Sentora noted that yield-bearing stablecoins have paid out almost $1 billion in total yield. 

In the stablecoin world, several big announcements were made this week, including Visa piloting its stablecoin payments for businesses to fund cross-border payments, Stripe revealing its stablecoin issuance tool, and nine eurozone banks introducing a joint stablecoin initiative to challenge the USD’s dominance.

More importantly, these reliable medium of exchange and store of value have recorded over $46 bln in net inflows in the last 90 days. Tether’s USDT led this growth with $19.6 bln in net inflows, followed by USDC’s $12.3 billion.

Tether is reportedly looking to raise $20 billion at a $500 valuation, which makes it one of the most valuable startups in the world alongside SpaceX and OpenAI. This isn’t surprising, though, with USDT being used by over 400 million people, holding more than $127 bln in US Treasurys and $11.4 bln in Bitcoin, and generating $13 bln in profit last year.

Crypto exchange Kraken is also in talks to raise money ahead of its IPO at a $20 bln valuation. While not yet finalized, it would consist of a $200-$300 million commitment from a strategic investor. This comes after Fortune reported that the exchange has quietly closed a $500mln raise at a $15bln valuation. 

On the regulatory front, a Clarity Act is in the works, which will clarify the boundaries of SEC and CFTC jurisdiction. Also, the Senate Finance Committee is scheduled to hold a hearing titled “Examining the Taxation of Digital Assets” on Oct. 1.

Crypto-friendly Sen. Cynthia Lummis also revealed that senators on the Senate Finance Committee are making progress on legislation to define how crypto should be taxed. In July, she introduced legislation to modernize crypto’s tax treatment, including declaring crypto lending as not a taxable event and a provision to prevent small (under $300) crypto gains or losses from being taxed.

A Perfect Setup for New Highs

October has been kick-started with a strong upward move as Bitcoin rushes past $117,000, recovering all the losses from the last 10 days. This suggests that we may actually get the rally that has been promised by ‘Uptober’.

While past performance is never a guarantee of future results, markets often move in patterns. More importantly, we are seeing sustained ETF inflows, growing corporate treasury buying, stablecoin growth, and regulatory clarity, all of which point to a changing market landscape.

Moreover, with the upcoming launch of new altcoin ETFs and a potential shift from Vanguard, crypto is looking at green times ahead.

While macro risks like tariffs, sticky inflation, Fed policy, and geopolitics could create volatility, the structural setup is strong for an “Uptober,” with clear signs of building buying momentum. Against this backdrop of catalysts, it’s reasonable to expect Bitcoin to soon enter price discovery!

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