Bitcoin Güncellemesi – Duygu Değişimi Oluyor mu?

Bitcoin ve daha geniş dijital varlık piyasası, neredeyse bir yıldır süren makroekonomik gelişmelerin etkisi altında kalmış ve bu süreçte varlığın değerinin %70’ten fazla kaybetmesine yol açmıştır.  Ne yazık ki, bu düşüşün bir süre daha sürebileceğini ve piyasa dip noktasına henüz ulaşılmadığını düşünen birçok analist ve trader bulunmaktadır.  Ancak zaman zaman bir miktar iyimserliğe ihtiyaç duyulur.  Bu bağlamda, aşağıda akıntının değişebileceğine işaret eden birkaç önemli yorum ve son olay yer almaktadır.

Exchange Activity

Merkezi olmayan borsalar son birkaç yılda popülaritesinde büyük bir artış gösterse de, merkezi versiyonları hâlâ dijital varlık ticaretinin temelini oluşturmaktadır.  Bu nedenle, bu borsalarda gerçekleşen faaliyetleri izlemek, trader davranışları aracılığıyla piyasa duyarlılığına dair içgörü elde etmek açısından akıllıca bir adımdır.
One of the more popular metrics that many watch as an indicator on sentiment is the inflow and outflow of capital on these centralized platforms.  The concept is simple – inflows indicate that traders are getting ready to sell off their assets, while outflows indicate that traders are sending their assets to be stored for safe keeping.  With that in mind, it is a very promising sign that over the past 30 days, we have seen over 120,000BTC exit from such platforms.

A Minor Decoupling

Anyone that follows Bitcoin will have heard at some point in time that it is a great hedge against inflation, and is not correlated with most traditional markets.  While this may one day be true, it has certainly not been the reality over the past year.  Over this time, Bitcoin has basically mimicked tech stocks, dropping precipitously.  September however began to show a divergence from this trend with Bitcoin only losing 3% of its value.  Meanwhile the Nasdaq 100, along with the S&P 500, each dropped roughly 12%.

Loss > Profit

As it stands, it is believed that over 50% of BTC holders are now in the red on their investments.  While this may sound disconcerting at first, there may be a silver lining.  Investors in the red are much less likely to sell their holdings, giving credibility to those calling $19,000 the floor for BTC.
With more than 50% showing a loss on their BTC investment, it simply means that the amount of sellers is rapidly diminishing, leaving only long-term holders left in the market.  Essentially, at this point most of the ‘weak-hands’ have been ousted from the market.

Supporting Commentary

Whether wise or not, many people make their investing decisions based upon commentary from those that have made a name for themselves in the industry.  Although many may currently be spreading nothing but doom and gloom, there are others like Larry Lepard, Founder of Equity Management Associates, that remain optimistic.

In a recent konuşmada, Lepard Bitcoin’in 100 katına (yani $2M BTC) çıkmasının önümüzdeki 5-7 yıl içinde muhtemel bir senaryo olduğunu paylaştı.  When asked what would need to occur with regards to adoption for this value to be achieved, Lepard indicated that Bitcoin needs to simply stay the course, and that based on the performance of BTC since inception, it has demonstrated a repeating cycle which posts higher lows after each correction.  As long as usage metrics continue to rise, this repeating behaviour should continue.

In addition to this lofty prediction, Lepard spoke highly of the Lightning network and what it means to Bitcoin, stating that, “…before the lightning network came along, the criticism that Bitcoin was too slow and too expensive for everyday trading was absolutely true – did not work…Lightning changes the entire game.”