The Quantum Fallout: Geopolitics, Zombie Coins, and Market Crash

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In the first two articles, we looked at the mathematics of the quantum threat and the engineering race to fix it. But technology doesn’t exist in a vacuum. It exists in a world of rogue nations, greedy markets, and difficult ethical choices.

The most common fear is that a malicious hacker in a basement will build a quantum computer and steal your money. This is Hollywood fiction. The reality of who will wield this weapon, and what they will target, is far more complex—and arguably more terrifying.

The Real Villain: State Actors, Not Hackers

Building a quantum computer capable of breaking Bitcoin requires billions of dollars, cutting-edge physics labs, and near-absolute zero cooling systems. A random individual cannot build one. The entities that will cross this finish line first are superpowers: the United States and China.

However, the threat to Bitcoin likely won’t come from Washington or Beijing. They have too much to lose by destroying the global financial system. The real threat comes from Rogue States.

Security experts are closely watching groups like Lazarus (North Korea). This state-sponsored hacking group has already stolen billions in crypto to fund missile programs. If it can use espionage to steal the keys to a quantum machine—or hack into a cloud-based quantum service—it has every incentive to drain Bitcoin wallets immediately. It doesn’t care about preserving the network; it only cares about the cash extraction.

The “Canary in the Coal Mine”

You might ask: “If it has a supercomputer, why waste it on Bitcoin? Why not steal nuclear codes or drain the Federal Reserve?” There is a terrifying hierarchy of targets, and Bitcoin sits in a unique position:

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In this sense, Bitcoin is the “Canary in the Coal Mine.” It is the only high-value financial target that cannot be rolled back, making it the perfect live-fire test range for a quantum attacker.

The “Zombie Coin” Ethical Crisis

If the network upgrades to quantum-safe addresses (as discussed in Part 2), we face a massive moral problem. What do we do about the coins that don’t move?

There are an estimated 2 to 4 million Bitcoin (worth hundreds of billions of dollars) that haven’t moved in over a decade. This includes the famous “Satoshi Stash” (1 million BTC mined by the creator). The owners of these coins may be dead, or the keys lost.

Because no one can sign a message to migrate these coins to the new safe format, they will remain vulnerable. When a quantum computer comes online, these coins will be stolen. The hacker could then dump them on the market, potentially triggering a violent collapse in price and confidence.

The Brutal Choice:
The community may be forced to decide: Do we let the hacker steal them? Or do we write code to “Burn” (destroy) these dormant coins before the attacker gets there? Burning them saves the economy but destroys Bitcoin’s core promise that “Code is Law.” It is a crisis that will tear the community apart.

Market Manipulation or Genuine Fear?

Finally, there is the market itself. You will often hear rumors that “Whales” (large investors) spread quantum fear to drive the price down and buy cheap.

While market manipulation exists, the quantum threat is too complex to be a good “FUD” (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) tool. The anxiety you see comes mostly from the developers themselves. However, the “Crisis of Confidence” is real.

Bitcoin’s price is based on trust in math. If Alphabet (GOOGL +1.93%) announces tomorrow that it could break the math, the price might collapse simply out of fear—long before a single satoshi is actually stolen.

Conclusion: Too Big to Fail?

Despite these dark scenarios, the probability of Bitcoin surviving is estimated at over 95%. Why? Because of Institutional Entrenchment.

With BlackRock (BLK -0%), Fidelity, and public mining companies invested to the tune of billions, there is effectively an unlimited budget to fix this problem. When the threat becomes real, “greed” becomes Bitcoin’s best defense. The network will upgrade because the people who own it cannot afford for it to fail.

So far, we have painted a grim picture of quantum technology as a destroyer of secrets and value. But is that the whole story? In our final article, we will flip the script and look at the Top 5 Ways Quantum Computers Will Save the World—from curing cancer to solving climate change.