Transportation
With Solid-State Batteries on the Horizon, Why Buy an EV Now?
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Electric vehicle adoption appears to be waning despite their promise to help the Earth. With the average EV costing ~$55,000 USD, how many people can purchase one while honestly saying it isn't a poor financial decision? Not as many as manufacturers banked on, evidently, as multiple have already begun scaling back production targets heading into mid-2024. Aside from the price and woeful infrastructure, there is one major reason that EVs are currently a hard sell – something better is coming.
The electric vehicle (EV) market is on the cusp of a technological revolution with the advent of solid-state batteries, promising to transform the landscape of electric mobility. This breakthrough technology is anticipated to significantly improve upon current lithium-ion batteries by boasting,
- higher energy density
- faster charging times
- enhanced safety
However, as solid-state batteries are projected to be commercially viable within the next few years, potential EV buyers are faced with a dilemma: should they invest in an EV now or wait for the next generation of battery technology?
Current Battery Technologies in EVs
Today's EVs predominantly use lithium-ion batteries, which have seen substantial advancements in terms of performance and value over the past decade. As a result, they have become the most favored approach for their relatively high energy output, lightweight nature, and rechargeability. This makes them suitable for a wide range of applications, from consumer electronics to electric vehicles.
Despite widespread adoption, lithium-ion batteries have limitations, including thermal management issues, long charging times, and gradual capacity loss over time.
The Promise of Solid-State Batteries
Solid-state batteries represent the next frontier in battery technology, potentially addressing many of the shortcomings of current lithium-ion batteries. Unlike their predecessors, solid-state batteries use a solid electrolyte instead of a liquid or gel. As mentioned, this fundamental change brings about several benefits:
- Higher Energy Density: Solid-state batteries can store more energy in the same amount of space, potentially doubling the range of EVs on a single charge.
- Faster Charging Times: With improved ionic conductivity, these batteries could slash charging times, making EVs more convenient for longer journeys.
- Enhanced Safety: The solid electrolyte is non-flammable, reducing the risk of battery fires and improving overall vehicle safety.
- Longevity: Solid-state batteries are expected to suffer less from degradation over time, offering longer lifespans compared to current batteries.
With the advent of this technology only a short time away, the floundering EV market of 2024 may soon get the boost it needs to take off truly.
The Pros and Cons of Waiting for Solid-State Technology
So, solid-state batteries stand poised to improve current offerings in just about every performance metric. Does waiting for this technology make sense after considering the pros and cons?
Pros of Waiting
- Future-Proofing: Waiting for solid-state technology could mean investing in an EV that's more efficient, safer, and longer-lasting.
- Environmental Impact: Solid-state batteries may be more environmentally friendly to produce and recycle, aligning with the sustainable ethos of many EV buyers.
Cons of Waiting
- Availability: Solid-state batteries are still a few years away from commercial deployment, with most estimates predicting mass-market availability in the late 2020s.
- Cost: Initially, EVs equipped with solid-state batteries may command a premium, potentially offsetting some of the benefits of early adoption.
- Innovation in the Meantime: Current lithium-ion technology continues to advance, with improvements in efficiency, charging speed, and cost-effectiveness.
A Difficult Road Ahead for Imminent EV Models
As the industry prepares to transition to solid-state batteries, models set to be released in the next couple of years, such as the highly anticipated reimagining of the iconic Scout by Scout Motors, face a unique challenge. These vehicles are entering the market on the brink of a significant technological shift, potentially impacting their resale value and desirability as consumers may opt to wait for solid-state-equipped models. For the Scout, in particular, enthusiasts should hope that its affiliation through Volkswagen with battery manufacturer QuantumScape opens the option to such technology as it looks to hit the ground running upon launch.
To remain competitive, manufacturers of these imminent releases must navigate this transition carefully, emphasizing the current advantages of their vehicles, such as immediate availability, existing charging infrastructure compatibility, and the benefits of current technology.
Industry Trailblazers
As it stands, there are various companies (e.g. Honda, Nissan, Ford, BMW) actively developing solid-state batteries for use in EVs. Below is a look at a few of these, along with projected launch dates.
*Figures provided below were accurate at the time of writing and are subject to change. Any potential investor should verify metrics*
1. Toyota
| Marketcap | P/E Ratio | Earnings Per Share (EPS) |
| 327,385,947,326 | 10.65 | $23.47 |
Toyota is at the forefront of solid-state battery development, leveraging its extensive experience in electrified vehicles to spearhead advancements in this area. With a clear target to commercialize solid-state batteries in their electric vehicles (EVs) by the mid-late 2020s, Toyota aims to revolutionize the automotive industry.
Toyota's aggressive push towards solid-state batteries underscores its ambition to maintain a leading position in the next generation of electric vehicle technology, offering potential investors a promising opportunity in a company innovating at the cutting edge of automotive advancements.
2. QuantumScape
| Marketcap | Forward P/E 1 Yr. | Earnings Per Share (EPS) |
| 3,071,997,070 | -7.08 | $-0.96 |
QuantumScape, a U.S.-based startup backed by Volkswagen, is making significant headway in the development of solid-state lithium-metal batteries. The company has set its sights on commercial production by the mid-2020s. QuantumScape's solid-state batteries could dramatically increase the appeal of EVs, positioning the company as a key player in the future of electric mobility.
3. Solid Power
| Marketcap | Forward P/E 1 Yr. | Earnings Per Share (EPS) |
| 327,385,947,326 | -4.68 | $-0.37 |
Solid Power is another prominent contender in the solid-state battery space, working closely with industry giants Ford and BMW to develop and scale its technology for automotive applications. Like the others on this list, Solid Power focuses on producing solid-state batteries because they promise higher energy density and improved safety over traditional lithium-ion batteries. Like the others, it also aims to incorporate its technology into vehicles by the mid-2020s.
Solid Power's strategic partnerships and commitment to innovation position it as a promising investment opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the transition to more advanced EV battery technologies. The company's efforts to overcome the technical challenges associated with solid-state batteries could significantly improve electric vehicle performance and safety.
Buy or Wait?
The decision to buy an EV now or wait for solid-state technology boils down to individual priorities, including environmental concerns, the desire for the latest technology, and budget considerations.
For those willing to embrace current technology, there are many compelling reasons to invest in an EV today, from the immediate environmental benefits to taking advantage of existing incentives and infrastructure.
However, for buyers focused on maximum efficiency and technological innovation, waiting for solid-state batteries may be the more appealing choice – especially if your interest lies in options set to be released in 2025 and 2026.
Regardless of the decision, the future of electric mobility is bright, with advancements on the horizon that promise to make EVs more accessible, efficient, and sustainable than ever before.
