Öne Çıkanlar
Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII): Geleceğin Donanmasını İnşa Etmek
Securities.io sitesini Google'daki tercih ettiğiniz kaynaklara ekleyin
Huntington Ingalls Modern Deniz Savaşları İçin Nasıl İnşa Ediyor
Historically, the world’s great powers can be classified into two categories:
- kara temelli uluslar, büyük nüfus, ağır sanayi ve doğal kaynaklar üzerine askeri ve ekonomik güçlerini kurarlar,
- deniz temelli güçler, deniz yollarını kontrol eden güçlü donanmalarla etkilerini sürdürürler.
Both the former British Empire and today’s American global influence are of the second type, with the English line ships and heavy battleships having been replaced by nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers.
Büyük güçler arasındaki rekabet yeniden alevlenirken, ABD ve müttefiklerinin deniz temelli gücünü Rusya ve İran gibi kara temelli uluslarla karşı karşıya getiriyor, güçlü bir donanma Washington DC’deki politika yapıcılar için tekrar öncelik haline geliyor.
Paralel olarak, Çin de etkileyici bir deniz gücü inşa ediyor ve Tayvan’la (ABD’nin önemli bir müttefiki ve dünyanın en büyük yarı iletken üreticisi) “zorunlu birleşme” olasılığını açıkça tartışıyor.
Tüm bu eğilimler, kilit ABD askeri tersaneyi stratejik varlıkların önümüzdeki on yılda artan sipariş defterlerinden faydalanma olasılığını artırıyor. Ve ABD deniz doktrininde Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII ) kadar öne çıkan ve merkezi bir varlık yok.
HII Fiyat Grafiği
HII Şirket Genel Bakışı: Amerika’nın Öncü Gemi İnşaçisi
Huntington Ingalls Industries, 2022’de HII olarak yeniden markalaşan şirket, ABD’nin en büyük askeri gemi inşa şirketidir.
44.000’den fazla çalışanı vardır; bunların 7.100’i mühendis, tasarımcı ve bilim insanıdır. Şirket her yıl 1 milyar dolardan fazla AR‑Gİ’ye harcıyor ve 2024’te 11,5 milyar dolar gelir elde etti.
2011’de, daha da büyük askeri üretici Northrop Grumman’dan ( (NOC ) ) ayrılarak kuruldu; bugün uzay faaliyetlerine odaklanıyor.
HII’nın en önemli varlıkları, Virginia’daki Newport News Shipbuilding ve Mississippi’deki Ingalls Shipbuilding adlı devasa tersanelerdir.
Kaynak: HII
Northrop Grumman’dan ayrılması şirketi yeni gibi gösterse de, tersaneleri 1886 (Newport) ve 1938 (Ingalls) yıllarında kurulmuş olup, ABD Donanması tarihine yön veren unsurlardır.
Şirketin en büyük gelir kaynağı Newport’tır; çünkü bu tersane nükleer gemilerin inşası ve bakımıyla sorumludur; bu gemiler genel olarak daha büyük, daha karmaşık ve daha pahalıdır.
Kaynak: HII
A third division of HII was established in 2016, Mission Technologies, providing technology to the US military with maritime drones, software, cyber and electronic warfare solutions, fleet maintenance services, and virtual simulations.
The company is responsible for producing the US nuclear aircraft carriers, as well as nuclear submarines, and an array of other surface vessels.
US Navy Strategy: What It Means For HII
As a military contractor, HII’s revenues and profits are tightly linked to the USA’s plans for its Navy.
The nation is planning to maintain its nuclear submarines (SSBN – Submersible Ship, Ballistic, Nuclear) and aircraft carriers inventory throughout the upcoming years up to the 2050s, which will require several new expensive ships built to replace the ones being retired, like for example the USS Nimitz, to be retired in 2026.
As the 10 Nimitz-class carriers are replaced by the Ford-class carriers on a 1-to-1 basis, this will create a steady flux of work for HII.
Kaynak: Warship
The overall US Navy is also going to grow, with more amphibious vessels, logistical ships, and small surface ships adding to a stable number of larger surface ships, bringing the current ∼300 ships to ∼400 by 2040.
Kaynak: Congressional Budget Office
This ambitious expansion of the US Navy will translate into the purchase of a new aircraft carrier every 4-5 years, 2-3 new submarines per year, and 4-5 larger ships.
Kaynak: Congressional Budget Office
This expansion of the US Navy is not solely in reaction to increased tensions in Europe and the Middle East, but also to the very quickly rising naval capacity of China.
China was completely outmatched by US fleets in 2000, with no aircraft carriers, and barely any advanced submarines. By 2016, the gap had already started to close. By 2030, China is expected to catch up enough that it could likely match the US Navy in any conflict close to China’s shores, like, for example, Taiwan or the increasingly contested South China Sea.
Kaynak: Next Big Future
For most of these purchases by the US Navy needed to keep up with China, only HII is able and accredited to fulfill the orders, together with General Dynamics’ (GD ) Bath Iron Works.
Over the past decade, HII has massively invested in more capacity and modernization of its shipyards, with a cumulative total of $4.1B in facilities and technology, putting it in a position to benefit from the expanding spending of the US military.
Kaynak: HII
Overall, the Navy’s budget is planned to grow by an additional $100B annually in the next 20 years.
Kaynak: Congressional Budget Office
Nuclear Vessels: HII’s Newport Shipbuilding Powerhouse
Why Nuclear Ships Are Critical
By far the most impressive and lucrative ships produced in HII’s shipyards, nuclear propulsion ships have a few key advantages over traditional fuel propulsion ships.
The first advantage is the extended period between refueling, allowing these ships, both aircraft carriers and submarines, to stay at sea for long periods. This not only increases their practical capacity, but it can also turn into a vital strategic advantage.
For example, only nuclear submarines can perfectly play the role of nuclear deterrent, by staying hidden underwater for months at a time, guaranteeing that any strike on the US would be retaliated.
Kaynak: HII
Another advantage of nuclear ships is that the nuclear power plant can generate a lot more electricity without needing more space in the ship. This is important for energy-hungry systems like aircraft carrier catapults propelling fighter jets on launch, with electromagnetic launches now replacing older and less reliable steam-powered systems.
“For 100 years, aircraft carriers have been the most survivable and versatile airfields in the world, Perhaps no single military platform distinguishes what our nation is and what it stands for more than the aircraft carrier.”
Lastly, needing fuel only once a decade for the largest and heaviest ship in a fleet drastically reduces the logistical headache of fuel supply.
HII’s Near Monopoly On Nuclear Shipbuilding
HII is the sole designer of US nuclear aircraft carriers and one of the only two designers and manufacturers of nuclear submarines.
The activity at Newport is roughly split into 3 equal parts: aircraft carrier construction, submarine construction, and servicing of existing ships, including fuel replacement and nuclear power plant overhaul.
Kaynak: HII
As a result of these technical and tactical advantages, nuclear ships, both surface combatants and submarines are irreplaceable for modern navies, almost no matter the costs. If budgets are cut, it is other programs than nuclear ones that tend to suffer.
This is however an especially complex type of design, requiring experience, trained personnel, dedicated facilities, and hard-to-obtain certifications. As a result, this is not only a profitable activity for HII, but by far the one with the strongest “business moats”:
- Regülasyon korumaları.
- Benzersiz uzmanlık ve altyapılar.
- Askeri talep ve kilit stratejik gereksinimler nedeniyle istikrarlı pazar.
This activity segment now has a backlog of orders worth $27B, almost 3x the company’s total market cap, and has seen its revenues growing at a 5.4% CAGR.
New Export Markets: AUKUS And Beyond
The advantages of nuclear submarines are significant also for other nations. However, the complexity of these machines has limited the capacity of even rich countries to develop their own versions.
This is why the so-called AUKUS (Australia-UK-US) military agreement was important both geopolitically and economically for HII. This agreement planned to open nuclear submarine technology to the USA’s closest overseas allies, something that was previously off-limits.
This opens a cumulative $250B market for HII. The main part is getting Australia to buy a total of as many as 8-10 nuclear submarines. This will be composed of three Virginia-class submarines from the US, with the possibility of acquiring two more. Another five of the new SSN-AUKUS submarines, based on a British design but incorporating US technology, would be constructed later.
Kaynak: HII
As a reference, this would make Australia’s nuclear submarine fleet as large as the UK’s. The AUKUS deal represented a visible part of the American “pivot to the Pacific” strategic shift against China.
The first pillar of the AUKUS deal around submarines would be followed by a second pillar, focused on cyber and electronic defense and maritime drones.
Kaynak: HII
Some uncertainty remains, as there has been news that the White House had put the AUKUS deal “under review to make sure was aligned with the president’s America First agenda.”
Notably in question is the capacity of America (and therefore HII) to deliver the submarines in time, as shipbuilding capacity has been a constant constraint for the US Navy for decades, a point brought by a prominent critic of the AUKUS deal in the past:
“Why are we giving away this crown jewel asset when we most need it?”
However, it is likely that the need to keep Australia firmly in the Western alliance, as well as the hefty price paid for it, might sway the ever-business-focused approach of the Trump administration.
HII is very actively working on solving the supply issues, after two decades of producing only one Virginia-class submarine per year on average during the War On Terror era.
This is being done by solving every identified capacity chokepoint, from doubling dry dock capacity (often clogged by maintenance works) to the Ingalls East Bank Unit Construction, a 187-acre area of newly reactivated shipyard space that was destroyed by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
Kaynak: HII
This is not to say that all production issues are solved, with skilled labor the most likely limitation for HII growth targets, deeply linked to the decline of the overall shipbuilding capacity of the USA in the past decades, as global shipbuilding is mostly done today in South Korea and China.
Ingalls Shipyard: Destroyers & Amphibious Ships
Mostly focused on guided missile destroyers and amphibious ships, this shipyard employs a workforce of 11,000+ people and adds another $16B backlog to HII.
Kaynak: HII
The amphibious ships are the largest segment of revenues for this shipyard, with servicing the ships a much smaller activity than for nuclear ships, due to lower complexity and the Navy doing some maintenance work itself.
Kaynak: HII
This focus on amphibious capacity matches very well the Navy’s priority, as smaller vessels are expected to bridge the gaps between aircraft carrier fleets and give the US military a stronger presence in the numerous islands of the Pacific Ocean.
Foreign Shipyards: Threat Or Opportunity?
A big change in US shipbuilding policy, and what could seem like a threat to HII, is the US Navy and top politicians warming up to the idea of buying warships from foreign allied nations.
A reason is that if the US wants to keep up with China, a lot more ships are needed yesterday, and European, Korean, or Japanese shipyards could help.
Another reason is that US shipbuilding outside of military ships has steadily declined since WW2, and therefore, there is a lack of skilled workforce and spare civilian capacity ready to be mobilized at will.
Lastly, overseas shipbuilding is just cheaper, due to lower labor costs and economies of scale.
For example, both modified Arleigh Burkes, Japan’s Maya class and South Korea’s Sejong the Great class, were built for $1.6B and $920M per ship, respectively, compared to the Arleigh Burke Flight III’s average production cost of $2.5 billion per ship.
So it is possible that some US Navy’s business could go to allied foreign shipyards, to the detriment of companies like HII.
However, it is unlikely to really hurt the bottom line of the company, and represents more of an additional order volume that the US shipbuilders would not have been able to fulfill anyway.
Another type of ships that are likely to be complemented by foreign shipbuilders are logistical and specialty ships, like tankers and icebreakers.
For example, Finnish shipyards could be winning a tender for 5 medium-sized icebreakers, with the order valued at around €2.5 B ($2.85 B). Similarly, fuel resupply ships do not need to differ significantly from civilian designs and can be built by the massive Korean shipyards.
In any case, these orders to foreign shipbuilders are unlikely to dent the revenues of HII, and if anything, they should help it focus on improving capacity for higher margins and more complex advanced warships.
HII Mission Technologies: Cyber & Maritime Drones
As military operations become increasingly complex and connected, the demand for advanced IT systems directly integrating with ships and other military gear becomes more important.
This is why the now separate segment of HII, Mission Technology, derived a large part of its revenues from cyber defense, electric warfare, and C5ISR (Command, Control, Communication, Computers, Cyber, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance), a catchphrase for digitally integrated command centers.
Kaynak: HII
In this category also resides the for now small but likely to grow exponentially maritime drone category (Unmanned Undersea & Surface Vehicles – UUV & USVs)
Kaynak: HII
Mission Technology operates a little like a tech company inside the HII’s umbrella, with 60% of its employees engineers and technologists, of which 75% hold a security clearance and 35% are veterans.
It is the fastest-growing activity of HII, with 13.1% year-to-year growth.
Final Thoughts On Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII)
HII has been and still is today the industrial core that made the USA the most powerful maritime nation on Earth.
It has a strong expertise in building nuclear-powered ships, both submarines and aircraft carriers, which are the most complex vessels ever built. This competency forms the center of the company revenues and the most defensible part of the business.
Only one shipyard owned by fellow large defense contractor and HII partner General Dynamics is able to work in that sector, and both together are if anything struggling to produce enough to answer demand, especially in the context of now having to supply Australia as well.
The other shipbuilding segment, amphibious ships and missile destroyers, is a slightly more competitive market, but here too, it is not demand but shipyard capacities that are the only limit to HII revenue growth.
The company could also see growth from its technology division, where the long-established relationship with the Pentagon and now foreign allied nations as well should help in the sale of underwater drones, cybersecurity, and electronic warfare solutions.
Underpinning all this record-breaking demand for HII products is the realization by the USA that competition from peer-level powers is back and here to stay, and that a lot more equipment with a very long lead time like warships needed to be built yesterday.
Overall, HII should be seen first as a leader in shipbuilding and advanced technologies: maritime nuclear propulsion, special hull shipbuilding (including submarines), and advanced drone & cyber military capacities.
From an investment perspective, the business is as stable as it gets, backed by the USA’s $1T military budget and investment cycles measured in decades, and now at the stage of reaping the fruits of a 10-year-long investment cycle in new shipyards, personnel training, and new technologies development.
Latest Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) Stock News and Developments
