The Future Martian Economy

A Dream Within Arm’s Reach

With more tests of SpaceX’s Starship ongoing, it seems that the dream of marching on Mars or even colonizing it, is getting more realistic by the day.

This is also with the backdrop of both China and NASA having big plans for a permanent Moon base (The Artemis missions), as well as discussions of new space stations by the EU, India, and Russia, on top of the quickly growing Chinese one.

No matter what you think of Elon Musk’s management methods or politics, it is clear that the richest man in the world is now getting closer to his life goal of making “humans a multi-planetary species”.

But once the initial landing is achieved, and scientific exploration by SpaceX or leading nations is done, any sustainable Martian colonies will need to justify their own existence from an economic point of view. And it is easier said than done.

This is an idea that has been explored in depth in science fiction, notably in the excellent Mars Trilogy by Kim Stanley Robinson, published first in 1992. 30 years later, let’s look again at this idea with new technology and more knowledge about the red planet.

Source: Unsplash

The Costs

The need for a self-sustaining Martian economy is because not only the initial setup, but also the continuous imports of goods and people to Mars will be extremely expensive. In the long run, people will want to see it pay for itself.

Transportation

The first major cost, that so far kept us from even walking on Mars, is transportation.

A Starship trip to orbit is expected to cost up to $1-5M per orbital launch (depending if you ask Elon Musk or maybe more realistic third parties), each carrying “only” 150 tons. The cost for a Mars trip, which will require still untested refueling in the orbit, might be several times larger.

So this is likely around a $100,000/ton transportation cost or more. For reference, even air freight, the most costly trading method we currently use, costs around $3,000-7,000/ton. Sea freight is as little as $2.5 per ton per 1,000-miles.

So Mars-Earth trade is going to be 100x to 100,000x more expensive.

Simply put, anything imported to Mars will be imported only because it is close to impossible to make locally. Actual trade will, by the sheer force of economics and transportation costs, be rather limited.

This is likely going to look like how the trade of precious items and rare spices was done in the pre-modern world, more than the globalized economy of today.

Survival

The second obvious question about Martian economics is all the extra costs of just living on the red planet. Earth provides us “for free” with breathable air, abundant liquid water, radiation protection, and fertile lands, making growing food and simply staying alive a relatively low-cost and low-tech endeavor.

So the first issue for any colony will be to manage efficiently to procure the very basics locally. This is because transportation costs between Earth and Mars are so astronomical (pun intended) that only people or high-value machinery and parts make sense to carry between the 2 in the long run.

So let’s examine quickly how to cover the basics: food, water, shelter, and heat.

The Basics

Food

Food is probably not the hardest problem to solve. We know how to grow food in hydroponic or aeroponic conditions. It is more expensive than farming with “free” soil & rain, but nothing dramatic. An airtight dome/greenhouse is also a possibility. In any case, spending a lot of time with green plants or even small farm animals would probably be a psychological boost for the early colonists.

Source: Unsplash

Water

For a long time, this was thought to be a quasi-solvable problem. But we know since 2021 that Mars has a LOT more water than previously believed, including far from the polar regions. So as long as it is not about making entire ocean from scratch, it is unlikely Martian colonies will ever really struggle to access water.

Shelter

Now this can be a more difficult topic. Mars does not have a magnetosphere, so a very thick wall will be needed to give protection from cosmic radiation. It seems the main ideas are now either to do 3D printing of buildings from the local soil or to build underground shelters. You can read more about early experiences regarding radiation and human life on Mars in this dedicated scientific paper.

Source: Autodesk

In my opinion, it is clear Elon Musk has already decided for early colonies to be in tunnels, considering his otherwise odd interest in the Boring Company and its improved, electric-powered tunneling machines. Here too, the average 2-room flat might be a little more expensive to build than on Earth, but might also be much more durable, and well, real estate speculation is yet to pump up the prices of raw land on Mars… (For that matter, electric vehicles are the ONLY possible option for mobility on Mars).

Heat

Mars is a cold world, with an average temperature of -63C (-81F). Most likely, the early colonies will run on nuclear power, with Rolls-Royce microreactors being already tested and to be shipped to the Moon by 2029. The “waste heat” of such reactors will be great to warm the habitats as well.

Source: Rolls Royce

In the longer run, wind power could be another source of energy, with the thin Martian atmosphere often having very strong wind, resulting in a lot of harvestable energy.

Solar energy is going to be more tricky, with the planet receiving only 43% of Earth’s solar radiation. Maybe space-based solar power is an option, as anyway, a Martian economy is also a space-centric economy.

Making Money

In the long run, every society needs to produce as much as it consumes. What it cannot produce itself, it must trade in exchange for products of an equal value.

At first, this balance will be equalized by Earth subsidies, but we can be sure that as soon as humanity walks on Mars, some will grumble this is all a waste of their taxes, and probably even before that.

And the problem is that some items will need to be imported for decades, maybe centuries. For example, microchips, specialized machines, or advanced medicine and scientific instruments.

So how could Martian colonists make enough money to pay for these imports AND the exorbitant costs of transport?

Research

This is something at the edge of “subsidies”, but it is obvious that plenty of fundamental research from Earth-bound research institutes will want to study Mars from its surface. These will probably be the first “jobs” on Mars that are not linked to immediate survival. A little bit like it works for Antarctica today, but with very long or permanent job contracts for these scientists.

Medical research, geology, and astronomy, all will make progress from works conducted on a new planet. And if we ever find a trace of past alien life, this will be an even bigger “industry”. Active lifeforms would be an absolute banger for this sector, with probably every pharmaceutical and chemical company flooding the planet with funding and researchers in the search for new enzymes, chemicals, and medicine.

Tourism

This is probably the first “real” industry Mars could develop, once the details of not only surviving, but living in reasonable comfort on another world have become a matter of well-ordained routine.

We are already seeing this sector slowly turning into an actual industry for orbital flight, with companies like Virgin Galactic (SPCE) and Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin working on the concept.

Ultimately, orbital tourism has only a limited set of experiences to offer, mostly weightlessness and a private view of Earth from orbit.

In comparison, Mars can offer:

Valles Marineris: The largest canyon in the solar system, 4,000 km (2,500 mi) long, 200 km (120 mi) wide, and up to 7 km (23,000 ft) deep. Combined with the 1/3 gravity, this is just a paradise for explorers, alpinists, and other adrenaline junkies.

Source: Wikipedia

Olympus Mons: A dormant volcano so large that its top reaches into space, with a total height of 21.9 km (13.6 mi or 72,000 ft). It is roughly as large as France or the state of Arizona.

Source: Wikipedia

It is also surrounded by a massive cliff. At its tallest point, this cliff is 7km high. Many people pay from $30,000 to $200,000 for a Mount Everest expedition. We can imagine a higher price tag will find people ready to pay it in order to climb the tallest mountain in the solar system. One Mars trip costing $1-5M with 1-5 tourists on it seems rather reasonable.

If that was not enough, there is also the Tharsi Montes, 3 giant volcanoes larger than anything on Earth.

Easy flight: As mentioned before, the planet has very low gravity, 38% of Earth. This could make all sorts of flight experiences possible, from zeppelins to gliders, small planes, and helicopters. Scenic flights will likely be part of the travel kit of every luxury Mars adventure.

Luxury resorts: Many expensive tourism options rely very little on the environment around them. For example, cruise ships or ultra-luxurious resorts in Dubai and Las Vegas are for all functions and purposes self-contained cities not too dissimilar to a Martian colony. The unique location, gravity, possibility for easy exploration/hikes, and uniqueness of the experience could make some places on Mars the new Dubai/St-Tropez/Las Vegas/Macao, etc.

Bragging rights & exclusivity

Let’s be honest, the main feature of space tourism in general, and a hypothetical Mars tourism industry, is its uniqueness. This is something that sets you apart from the common mortals, and the richer people are, the more such status symbols are prized.

We can easily imagine Mars trips being sold in auctions, with limited space available. As well as corporate sponsorship selling limited spots as “supporter of humankind expansion” being a major revenue source for a Martian colony.

For the same reasons, each of the major world powers will want to have “their” colony, and treat it as a matter of national prestige, as well as a nonviolent form of competition with other powers.

In that respect, the strong international tensions might be a major driver in boosting lunar and Martian colonization, with both the US and China, and their respective allies, rushing to “not be left behind” in the new space race.

Over time, declining costs and the loss of novelty will probably change the appeal of this reason for colonization. But it might be vital to turn the fledgling early colonies into fully stable communities and proto-nations.

Rare materials

As a completely untapped world, Mars is bound to have easy-to-exploit deposits of materials like gold, diamonds, platinum, etc. Maybe also some unique gemstones and minerals with no equivalent on Earth. These are precious enough to be worth both the effort of mining and bringing them back to Earth.

For example at the current price of $28,000/kg – $28M/ton, platinum can easily cover its transportation costs back to Earth, especially as most rockets are likely to come back mostly empty.

This will not be true for deeper or harder-to-exploit deposits. But at first, this sort of resource exploitation might be a great boost in Martian colonization, the way the gold rush greatly helped a quick integration of California into the USA.

Collector items, like the first Martian rock brought back to Earth could as well command a very high price.

High-value Industries

Any significantly high-value product could be also traded between Mars and Earth. We could potentially imagine items like microchips being worth the transport costs.

We know very little about what manufacturing advantage a 38% of Earth gravity could procure. But we already know that some niche items, like some types of optic fibers, are only possible to build in microgravity.

So it is not completely impossible to rule out that Mars might have some unique potential as a high-tech manufacturing hub. Maybe some unique effect of low gravity will be beneficial for biotechnology as well.

It is also likely that a local culture founded by scientists, engineers, and a population entirely reliant on technology to stay alive might produce quite a few top innovators and scientists. On Earth, the richest places are often like Singapore of the Silicon Valley, resource-poor and benefiting from an educated and productive population.

Remote Work

Mars is too distant from Earth to perform a Zoom call, with a communication lag of 20 minutes on average. But it nevertheless would not hinder the possibility of any work that can be done remotely, like research, writing, design, finance, anything intellectual property related, etc.

If it can be done only with emails, a job probably can be done as easily by a digital nomad on Earth than on Mars.

In the long run, this might be a prime source of employment for the Martian population, as well as of exports, as digital goods & services could be perfectly competitive, not suffering from physical transportation costs. Patents and royalties from R&D effort made on Mars could provide a sustainable source of income for the planete.

Others Income Sources

While probably never major drivers of the Martian economy, many other activities could be a source of profitable “exports” for the Martian economy.

Low gravity sports

Can you imagine playing basketball or baseball with only 38% gravity? Or for that matter mixed martial arts, American football, and rugby? We can easily see some niche (or maybe mainstream) new sports being invented to exploit this unique environment.

Retirement & Convalescence Homes

It is possible that low gravity could help handle old age or specific diseases, like cardiovascular issues. If this turns out to be true, some people will definitely want to pay for a one-way ticket and spend their retirement money watching a red sky.

Film making

This is maybe more going to be true for orbital stations than for Mars, thanks to the advantage of weightlessness. But it is equally likely given that movies about Mars and space are already highly popular today. They might be even more so in a future where colonization is not science fiction anymore.

Refueling & Repair Hub

The human drive for expansion might drive it further, toward the metal riches of the asteroid belt, or the moons of Jupiter and Saturn. For that matter, the giant gaseous planets might be a great unlimited source of fuel for nuclear fusion. In that scenario Mars could become a logistical hub for deep-space activities.

Photo by Planet Volumes on Unsplash

Terraforming

Terraformation is the concept of turning another planet into something similar to Earth (moderate temperature, breathable atmosphere, oceans, active ecosystems. People are very engaged in ecology and the need to protect all forms of life on Earth. The same impulse could see spreading life in a dead world as a moral good, worth donating to.

Even financial speculation could play a part in the push for terraformation, with now “useless” land potentially turned fertile and attractive, both for farming and for real estate.

Source: Deviantart

Life And Culture On Mars

In the long run, we can expect most Martian colonists to work for other Martians, growing food, producing power & local goods, etc.

The more advanced and complex a technology, the more likely it will have to be imported. So it is not impossible that automation might be a lot less common on Mars than on Earth, with local labor cheaper than anything requiring the import of advanced chips or robotics.

It is also likely that the local production of basic electrics and electronics will have to be quickly developed, as any local supply will be a lot cheaper than imports, even if not produced at the same scale.

A culture of simplicity and low consumption will probably be required to handle the harsh living conditions of the first decades. A strong belief in science and rationality is also likely to dominate the culture, with technology the only thing keeping everyone alive.

One outcome of having to build subterranean or heavily shielded habitats might also be a culture that views the outside as a place to avoid most of the time.

On one hand, the Martian surface could be seen as a place to preserve free of human interference, especially if terraformation becomes successful.

On the other hand, this could encourage ruthless exploitation of the planet’s resources, with no ecosystem risking being damaged, and a mix of domed gardens and massive heavy industry could dot the surface of this new world.

So from techno-ecological utopia, or cyberpunk mass industrialization, many paths are possible for a future Martian society and economy. But in any case, it is likely to become as influential on humankind’s history as the discovery and colonization of the Americas.